1. (C) SUMMARY: THE MAJORITY OF ZIMBABWE'S RULING ZANU-
PF PARTY MEMBERS ARE UNHAPPY WITH PRESIDENT MUGABE AND
THE WAY HE IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY, BUT THEY WILL NOT
OFFER MORE THAN PASSIVE RESISTANCE TO HIS DESTRUCTIVE
POLICIES, OUR CONTACTS TELL US. THERE IS NOT LIKELY TO
BE MUCH ENTHUSIASM FOR CAMPAIGNING FOR MUGABE IN THE
UPCOMING PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, ACCORDING TO A FORMER
ZANU-PF MP. THE ONLY ENTHUSIASTIC CAMPAIGNERS -- AND
POTENTIAL MUGABE SUCCESSORS -- WILL BE THOSE WHO HAVE
BENEFITED RECENTLY FROM ZANU-PF'S REWARD SYSTEM. A SNAP
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IS UNLIKELY BECAUSE IT IS TOO
RISKY FOR MUGABE, ACCORDING TO OUR SOURCES. MEANWHILE,
SOME REFORM-MINDED "YOUNG TURKS" ARE ATTEMPTING TO
MODERATE THE PARTY'S MORE OUTLANDISH SWIPES AT THE RULE
OF LAW. FOR MOST ZANU-PF MEMBERS, HOWEVER, SURVIVAL IS
THE BYWORD OF THE DAY. END SUMMARY.

PARLIAMENT: A HOUSE BITTERLY DIVIDED
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PAGE 03 HARARE 00816 01 OF 02 231135Z


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2. (C) ON FEBRUARY 15, POLOFF MET WITH MICHAEL MATAURE,
A FORMER ZANU-PF MP FOR CHIMANIMANI AND CURRENT HEAD OF
A LOCAL NGO THAT FOCUSES ON PARLIAMENTARY ISSUES AND
WORKS WITH MPS. (COMMENT: TOWARD THE END OF HIS TENURE
IN THE LAST PARLIAMENT, MATAURE WAS AN OUTSPOKEN CRITIC
OF ZANU-PF'S TOP-DOWN STRUCTURE AND ATTEMPTS TO QUASH
INTERNAL DISSENT. END COMMENT.) MATAURE DESCRIBED THE
CURRENT ATMOSPHERE IN PARLIAMENT AS "POISONED" SINCE
MOST MPS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE AISLE SEE ISSUES ONLY
THROUGH A POLITICAL PRISM. (NOTE: THIS SENTIMENT WAS
ALSO EXPRESSED BY WEBSTER SHAMU, ZANU-PF MP FOR CHEGUTU,
IN A CONVERSATION WITH POLOFF FEBRUARY 13. END NOTE.)
MATAURE REPORTED THAT LITTLE PROGRESS HAS BEEN MADE IN
THE IMPEACHMENT EFFORT AGAINST PRESIDENT MUGABE BECAUSE
THE ZANU-PF CHAIR IS USING ALL MANNER OF DELAYING
TACTICS TO DRAG OUT THE PROCEEDINGS. NO HEARINGS TO
INVESTIGATE THE CHARGES AGAINST THE PRESIDENT HAVE BEEN
SCHEDULED, HE ADDED.

ZANU-PF REMAINS QUIETLY DISGRUNTLED


--------------------------





3. (C) MATAURE CONTINUED BY DESCRIBING ZANU-PF AS A
"DISGRUNTLED" AND "DIVIDED" PARTY, THE RECENT STRING OF
BY-ELECTION VICTORIES NOTWITHSTANDING. THERE IS A
"SILENT MAJORITY" OF ZANU-PF MEMBERS WHO DO NOT APPROVE
OF PRESIDENT MUGABE'S VIOLENT TACTICS TO COW OPPONENTS
AND WANT HIM TO LEAVE POWER, BUT THEY FEEL THEY HAVE TO
KEEP QUIET ON THE SUBJECT OR THEIR CAREERS WILL MEET AN
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 04 HARARE 00816 01 OF 02 231135Z
UNGLORIOUS END.



4. (C) PAUL MANGWANA, A YOUNG ZANU-PF MP FOR KADOMA
EAST AND DEPUTY MINISTER FOR TRANSPORT AND
COMMUNICATIONS, CONVEYED A SIMILAR VIEW TO POLOFF IN A
SEPARATE CONVERSATION FEBRUARY 22. MANGWANA STATED THAT
AS A MINORITY IN THE PARTY, THE REFORM-MINDED "YOUNG
TURK" GROUP (A GROUP TO WHICH MANGWANA WOULD APPEAR TO
BELONG) CANNOT SPEAK OUT DIRECTLY AGAINST THE OLD GUARD.
INSTEAD, THEY WORK QUIETLY BEHIND THE SCENES,
ESSENTIALLY "GANGING UP" ON ONE OR TWO OLDER MEMBERS AT
A TIME IN AN ATTEMPT TO INFLUENCE THEIR OPINION OR
POLICIES.



5. (C) MANGWANA CITED THE EXAMPLE OF THE ZANU-PF
PARLIAMENTARY MOTION TABLED FEBRUARY 22 TO ASK PRESIDENT
MUGABE TO ESTABLISH A TRIBUNAL TO INVESTIGATE THE
CONDUCT OF CERTAIN HIGH AND SUPREME COURT JUSTICES.
(NOTE: THE FEBRUARY 23 EDITION OF THE GOVERNMENT-
CONTROLLED "THE HERALD" REPORTED THAT THE MDC CLAIMED
THE MOTION IS POTENTIALLY UNCONSTITUTIONAL AND DEBATE ON
IT WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL FEBRUARY 27. END NOTE.) THE
MP CLAIMED THE ORIGINAL MOTION WRITTEN BY JUSTICE
MINISTER PATRICK CHINAMASA WOULD HAVE CALLED FOR THE
DISMISSAL OF NEARLY THE ENTIRE HIGH AND SUPREME COURT

CONFIDENTIAL

CONFIDENTIAL PTQ2866

PAGE 01 HARARE 00816 02 OF 02 231136Z
ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 DINT-00 DODE-00
DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00
VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 L-00 VCE-00
AC-01 NSAE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00
PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00
R-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-01 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00
SAS-00 SWCI-00 /009W


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C96009 231136Z /38
P 231134Z FEB 01
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8284
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 000816

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER

LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY

PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS

NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER

PASS USAID FOR AFR/SA C. PALMA

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 00816 02 OF 02 231136Z
PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/23/11
TAGS: PGOV PINR PHUM KDEM ZI ZANU PF
SUBJECT: UNENTHUSIASTIC ZIMBABWE RULING PARTY TRYING TO
RIDE OUT MUGABE'S STORM

BENCHES, BUT PARTY MODERATES REWROTE THE MOTION TO BE
MORE SELECTIVE AND TO DRAW UPON THE LAW. MANGWANA WENT
AS FAR AS TO SAY THAT CHINAMASA HAD BEEN EXCESSIVE IN
HIS CONDEMNATION OF THE JUDICIARY AND THAT HE SHOULD NOT
PAINT THE WHOLE JUDICIARY WITH THE SAME BRUSH. MANGWANA
ACKNOWLEDGED THE NEGATIVE IMPACT OF CHINAMASA'S ACTIONS
ON ZIMBABWE'S INTERNATIONAL REPUTATION, AND HOPED THAT
TRIBUNALS INVESTIGATING SELECTED JUSTICES (PRESUMABLY
INSTEAD OF PERPETUATING THE TREND OF THINLY VEILED
THREATS) WOULD RESTORE SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE RULE OF LAW
TO ZIMBABWE.

LITTLE ENTHUSIASM FOR MUGABE PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN


--------------------------



--------------------------





6. (C) THE LEVEL OF UNHAPPINESS IN ZANU-PF WITH MUGABE
IS LIKELY TO TRANSLATE INTO A LACK OF ENTHUSIASM FOR
MUGABE'S PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN, MATAURE THEORIZED. IT
IS TELLING, HE SAID, HOW LITTLE CABINET MEMBERS AND
OTHER ZANU-PF MEMBERS HAVE VOICED PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR
MUGABE SINCE THE DECEMBER PARTY CONGRESS (REFTEL). THE
FEW WHO DO ACTIVELY CAMPAIGN FOR MUGABE ARE THE ONES TO
BE VIEWED AS MUGABE'S POTENTIAL SUCCESSORS, MATAURE
ASSERTED, EVEN CALLING THEM THE PRESIDENT'S "RUNNING
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 03 HARARE 00816 02 OF 02 231136Z
MATES." YOUTH DEVELOPMENT MINISTER BORDER GEZI, LOCAL
GOVERNMENT MINISTER IGNATIUS CHOMBO, AND SPEAKER OF
PARLIAMENT EMMERSON MNANGAGWA ARE POTENTIAL "RUNNING
MATES" BECAUSE OF THEIR UNSWERVING LOYALTY TO MUGABE.
THE PRESIDENT VALUES LOYALTY ABOVE ALL ELSE, MATAURE
ARGUED, AND DOLES OUT PATRONAGE BASED ON THAT
ALLEGIANCE. THE NEEDS OF THIS REWARD SYSTEM AND THE
PARTY ARE "PARAMOUNT" BEFORE THE NEEDS OF THE COUNTRY,
HE OPINED.



7. (C) WHEN ASKED ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A SNAP
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION THIS YEAR, MATAURE DESCRIBED THAT
SCENARIO AS VERY RISKY FOR MUGABE, AND THEREFORE,
UNLIKELY. THE PRESIDENT IS SO UNPOPULAR RIGHT NOW, HE
WOULD HAVE TO DEPLOY 250,000 PEOPLE ACROSS THE COUNTRY
TO CANVASS FOR HIM, AND ZANU-PF SIMPLY DOES NOT HAVE THE
RESOURCES TO MOUNT SUCH A CAMPAIGN, THE FORMER MP
STATED. THE ONLY WAY MUGABE COULD WIN IS IF THERE WAS A
THREE- OR FOUR-WAY RACE AMONG HIGH-PROFILE CANDIDATES
THAT ESSENTIALLY SPLIT THE OPPOSITION VOTE, MATAURE
SUGGESTED, AND THAT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

COMMENT: ALL WE WANT IS TO SURVIVE


--------------------------





8. (C) OUR ZANU-PF CONTACTS PAINT A PICTURE OF AN
UNHAPPY AND MOSTLY POWERLESS PARTY MAJORITY BIDING ITS
TIME UNTIL THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, WHICH MUST BE HELD
BY APRIL 1, 2002. THOSE WHO ARE NOT WILLING TO TRY TO
MODERATE THE RULING PARTY'S WORST EXCESSES FROM BEHIND
THE SCENES ARE LYING LOW UNTIL THE STORM BLOWS OVER.
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PAGE 04 HARARE 00816 02 OF 02 231136Z
POLITICAL SURVIVAL IS THE BYWORD IN THIS CURRENT PERIOD
OF THE COUNTRY'S HISTORY THAT IS AKIN TO MAO'S CULTURAL
REVOLUTION. THE ONLY TOOL LEFT FOR THE DISBELIEVERS IS
PASSIVE RESISTANCE. THE OUTSPOKEN MINORITY OF PARTY
LEADERS WILLING TO USE VIOLENCE, HARASSMENT AND OTHER
EXTRALEGAL MEANS TO CARRY OUT THE PRESIDENT'S PLANS,
SUCH AS GEZI, CHINAMASA, AND INFORMATION MINISTER
JONATHAN MOYO, WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD SWAY IN THE NEAR
TERM. END COMMENT.

IRVING

CONFIDENTIAL

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