1. (C) SUMMARY: THE CONTINUED INDEPENDENCE OF THE
ZIMBABWE CONGRESS OF TRADE UNIONS (ZCTU) FROM THE RULING
ZANU-PF PARTY, AND ITS SUPPORT FOR THE OPPOSITION
MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC), HINGES ON THE
UPCOMING CONGRESS, ACCORDING TO SENIOR OFFICIALS OF THE
UMBRELLA LABOR ORGANIZATION. ZANU-PF IS ACTIVELY
ATTEMPTING TO BUY THE ELECTION OF A FRIENDLY LABOR
FEDERATION LEADERSHIP BY PAYING UNIONS' BACK DUES TO THE
ZCTU. THE SUCCESS OF THESE EFFORTS WILL LIKELY DEPEND
ON WHETHER THE PRO-MDC FORCES WITHIN THE ZCTU ARE ABLE
TO PRESENT A UNIFIED SLATE OF CANDIDATES TO OPPOSE THOSE
BELIEVED TO BE SYMPATHETIC TO ZANU-PF. THE OUTCOME OF
THIS STRUGGLE WILL BE CRITICAL FOR THE FUTURE VIABILITY
OF THE MDC AS AN OPPOSITION PARTY, AND ITS CANDIDATE'S
CHANCES IN THE UPCOMING PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. END
SUMMARY.



2. (C) ON FEBRUARY 14 AND 15 LABOFF MET, RESPECTIVELY,
WITH GIFT CHIMANIKIRE AND ISAAC MATONGO TO DISCUSS THE
UPCOMING ZCTU CONGRESS, WHICH WILL BE HELD FEBRUARY 23-
24 IN MASVINGO. CHIMANIKIRE IS THE DEPUTY SECRETARY-
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PAGE 03 HARARE 00782 01 OF 02 211005Z
GENERAL OF THE MDC, A MEMBER OF THE ZCTU EXECUTIVE
COMMITTEE, AND SECRETARY-GENERAL OF THE 7,000-MEMBER
STRONG ZIMBABWE POST AND TELECOMMUNICATION WORKERS
UNION, ONE OF THE ZCTU'S LARGER AND MORE INFLUENTIAL
UNIONS. MATONGO IS THE ACTING PRESIDENT OF THE ZCTU AND
NATIONAL CHAIRMAN OF THE MDC. BOTH MEN ARE KEY MEMBERS
OF THE MDC LEADERSHIP, AS WELL AS INFLUENTIAL MEMBERS OF
ORGANIZED LABOR IN ZIMBABWE, AND PLAYED CENTRAL ROLES IN
THE ZCTU'S DECISION TO FORM THE MDC IN 1998.



--------------------------



--------------------------


THE ZCTU'S INDEPENDENCE DEPENDS ON CONGRESS OUTCOME


--------------------------



--------------------------





3. (C) CHIMANIKIRE AND MATONGO WERE IN COMPLETE
AGREEMENT THAT THE FEBRUARY CONGRESS WILL BE CRUCIAL IN
DETERMINING WHETHER THE ZCTU REMAINS A TRULY INDEPENDENT
LABOR FEDERATION OR IS COOPTED BY ZANU-PF. MATONGO TOLD
LABOFF THAT ZANU-PF WAS INDEED PAYING AFFILIATED UNIONS'
DUES ARREARAGES TO THE ZCTU IN ORDER TO INFLUENCE THEIR
VOTES AT THE UPCOMING CONGRESS. HE ADDED THAT HE DID
NOT BELIEVE THIS TACTIC WOULD BE SUCCESSFUL IN
INFLUENCING THE VOTES OF MOST OF THE UNIONS'
REPRESENTATIVES BECAUSE THEY AND THEIR MEMBERSHIPS
REMAIN OVERWHELMINGLY PRO-MDC. CHIMANIKIRE STATED THAT
AT LEAST TWO UNION LEADERS ARE PLANNING TO REVEAL AT THE
CONGRESS THAT ZANU-PF HAD PAID THEIR UNION'S BACK DUES.



--------------------------


A UNIFIED PRO-ZANU-PF SLATE OF CANDIDATES


--------------------------


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PAGE 04 HARARE 00782 01 OF 02 211005Z



4. (C) ACCORDING TO CHIMANIKIRE AND MATONGO, THERE IS NO
DOUBT THAT THE ACTING SECRETARY-GENERAL OF THE ZCTU,
ISIDORE ZINDOGA, IS A ZANU-PF PARTISAN. ZINDOGA, THEY
SAID, WAS AGAINST ZCTU STAYAWAYS THAT PROTESTED
GOVERNMENT OF ZIMBABWE (GOZ) POLICIES, AND OPPOSED THE
FORMATION OF THE MDC. IN ADDITION, HE HAS TRAVELED WITH
PRESIDENT MUGABE ON TRIPS OVERSEAS WITHOUT INFORMING THE
ZCTU GENERAL COUNCIL OF THE REASON FOR THESE TRIPS.
MOST RECENTLY, HE SIGNED AN AGREEMENT TO ENTER INTO A
TRIPARTITE SOCIAL CONTRACT WITH THE GOZ AND BUSINESS
WITHOUT THE APPROVAL OF THE ZCTU GENERAL COUNCIL. ON
FEBRUARY 10 THE ZCTU GENERAL COUNCIL ANNULLED THE
TRIPARTITE AGREEMENT ZINDOGA SIGNED. CHIMANIKIRE
MENTIONED THE WIDELY REPORTED SUSPICION THAT ZINDOGA IS
AN OPERATIVE OF THE GOZ CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
ORGANIZATION (CIO), BUT OFFERED LITTLE EVIDENCE TO
SUBSTANTIATE HIS CLAIM. BOTH STATED THAT IF ZINDOGA IS
ELECTED TO HIS CURRENT POSITION, HE WOULD SEEK TO SEVER
ALL INFORMAL LINKAGES BETWEEN THE ZCTU AND THE MDC AND
PREVENT ITS SUPPORTING THE MDC IN ANY MANNER. MATONGO
ADDED THAT ZINDOGA IS THE HEAD OF A UNIFIED SLATE OF
PRO-ZANU-PF CANDIDATES THAT WILL BE NOMINATED AT THE
CONGRESS BY THEIR SUPPORTERS.



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---

CONFIDENTIAL

CONFIDENTIAL PTQ3365

PAGE 01 HARARE 00782 02 OF 02 211006Z
ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CEA-01 CIAE-00 COME-00
CTME-00 DINT-00 DODE-00 DOTE-00 WHA-00 SRPP-00 DS-00
EB-00 EUR-00 EXIM-01 E-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00
FRB-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 ITC-01 LAB-01
L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-01
PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 SSO-00
STR-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 BBG-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-01
DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /013W


--------------------------

C821A6 211006Z /38
R 211005Z FEB 01
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 8257
INFO NSC WASHDC
DEPT OF LABOR WASHDC
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 000782

SIPDIS

ILAB FOR RSHEPHARD
LONDON FOR CGURNEY
PARIS FOR BWILLIAMS
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER
PASS USAID FOR AFR/SD - DWELLER, AFR/SA - CPALMA,
NNEWMAN, AA/AFR

E.O. 12958: DECL 02/21/11
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 00782 02 OF 02 211006Z
TAGS: ELAB PGOV PHUM PINR ZI
SUBJECT: CONTINUED INDEPENDENCE OF ZIMBABWE LABOR
FEDERATION HINGES ON UPCOMING CONGRESS

WILL THE PRO-MDC FORCES UNIFY BEHIND CANDIDATES?


--------------------------

---



5. (C) CHIMANIKIRE AND MATONGO WERE BOTH ADAMANT THAT
THE UNIONS AND THEIR MEMBERSHIPS REMAIN OVERWHELMINGLY
PRO-MDC. AT THE SAME TIME, HOWEVER, THEY EXPRESSED
CONCERN THAT IF THE PRO-MDC FORCES AT THE CONGRESS DID
NOT UNIFY BEHIND A SINGLE SLATE OF CANDIDATES, ZINDOGA
AND THE PRO-ZANU-PF SLATE COULD END UP BEING ELECTED.
CHIMANIKIRE AND MATONGO SAID A NUMBER OF QUALIFIED PRO-
MDC UNION LEADERS FEEL IT IS THEIR TIME TO ASSUME
LEADERSHIP POSITIONS IN THE ZCTU, COMPLICATING AGREEMENT
ON A SINGLE SLATE. THERE ARE THREE SUCH CANDIDATES FOR
EACH OF THE TWO MOST IMPORTANT POSITIONS IN THE ZCTU:
SECRETARY-GENERAL AND PRESIDENT. CHIMANIKIRE AND

SIPDIS
MATONGO BOTH STATED THAT THE MDC WAS WORKING
AGGRESSIVELY BEHIND THE SCENES, THROUGH PERSONAL
MEETINGS AND TELEPHONE CALLS TO THE DIFFERENT
CANDIDATES, TO SECURE AGREEMENT ON A SINGLE PRO-MDC
SLATE. MATONGO WAS CONFIDENT THAT SUCH AGREEMENT WOULD
BE REACHED BEFORE THE CONGRESS BEGINS, WHEREAS
CHIMANIKIRE BELIEVED THAT THE HORSE-TRADING INVOLVED MAY
MEAN THAT AGREEMENT WILL ONLY BE REACHED AT THE
CONGRESS. BOTH MEN AGREED THAT IF THE PRO-MDC FORCES
PRESENT A UNIFIED SLATE, THEY WILL BE ELECTED BY A
LANDSLIDE.

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PAGE 03 HARARE 00782 02 OF 02 211006Z


--------------------------


THE DIRECTION OF THE ZCTU AFTER THE CONGRESS


--------------------------





6. (C) IF THE PRO-ZANU-PF CANDIDATES ARE ELECTED,
CHIMANIKIRE AND MATONGO DOUBT THAT ZINDOGA WILL MAKE A
PUBLIC BREAK FROM THE MDC AND DECLARE THE ZCTU'S
ALLEGIANCE TO ZANU-PF. RATHER, THEY BELIEVE HIS
STRATEGY WILL BE TO PREVENT THE ZCTU FROM UNDERTAKING
ANY ACTIVITIES THAT HE BELIEVES WILL AID THE MDC, SUCH
AS UNION EFFORTS AT VOTER REGISTRATION AND EDUCATION.
AT THE SAME TIME, HE WILL OPPOSE STAYAWAYS AND OTHER
ACTIONS PERCEIVED TO BE DIRECTED AT HARMING THE GOZ AND
ZANU-PF. HE WILL ALSO LIKELY PURSUE A SOCIAL CONTRACT
THAT THE GOZ AND ZANU-PF CAN TOUT AS A GREAT ADVANCE FOR
WORKERS' INTERESTS.



7. (C) CHIMANIKIRE AND MATONGO WERE CLEAR ON WHAT WILL
OCCUR IF PRO-MDC CANDIDATES ARE ELECTED AT THE CONGRESS.
THE ZCTU LEADERSHIP WILL DECLARE THAT IT IS FORMALLY
INDEPENDENT AND AUTONOMOUS OF THE MDC, BUT IT WILL ALSO
STATE THAT THE LABOR FEDERATION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE
GOALS OF THE MDC. IN RECOGNITION OF ITS ROLE IN THE
FORMATION OF AND CONTINUING SUPPORT FOR THE MDC, IT WILL
ASK THE MDC TO ESTABLISH A FORMAL QUOTA WHEREBY ONE
QUARTER OF THE MDC'S CANDIDATES FOR PARLIAMENT WOULD BE
WORKERS. THE ZCTU WILL ALSO AID THE MDC'S ELECTION
STRATEGY BY ENGAGING IN ACTIVITIES SUCH AS VOTER
REGISTRATION, VOTER EDUCATION, GETTING OUT THE VOTE, AND
TRAINING OF ELECTION OBSERVERS. THESE STEPS WILL
ENHANCE THE CHANCES OF THE MDC CANDIDATE IN THE UPCOMING
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PAGE 04 HARARE 00782 02 OF 02 211006Z
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.



8. (C) COMMENT: THE UPCOMING ZCTU CONGRESS REMAINS A
CRITICAL EVENT IN ZIMBABWEAN POLITICS. PRESIDENT MUGABE
AND ZANU-PF WOULD CLEARLY LIKE TO CUT INTO ORGANIZED
LABOR'S SUPPORT FOR THE MDC, AND THE MOST EFFECTIVE WAY
TO DO THIS WOULD BE TO SEVER THE INFORMAL CONNECTIONS
THAT EXIST BETWEEN THE ZCTU AND THE MDC. FOR THE MDC,
MAINTAINING THE ZCTU'S SUPPORT IS CRITICAL TO BOTH ITS
CONTINUED EXISTENCE AS A VIABLE POLITICAL PARTY, AS WELL
AS ITS PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE'S CHANCES IN 2002. IF THE
PRO-MDC FORCES ARE ABLE TO PRESENT A UNIFIED SLATE OF
CANDIDATES, WE BELIEVE IT LIKELY THAT THEY WILL BE
ELECTED, AND THE ZCTU WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE MDC.
IF THEY CANNOT UNIFY BEFORE THE VOTE AT THE CONGRESS,
MUGABE AND ZANU-PF ARE LIKELY TO SUCCEED AT BUYING THE
ELECTION OF PRO-ZANU-PF CANDIDATES. SUCH AN OUTCOME
WOULD GREATLY HINDER THE MDC'S CHANCES IN THE UPCOMING
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS. END COMMENT.

IRVING

CONFIDENTIAL

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