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Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
01HARARE765
2001-02-16 11:00:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Harare
Cable title:  

THE CURRENT STATE AND PROJECTED CONSEQUENCES

Tags:   EAGR  PGOV  PHUM  EAID  ZI 
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161100Z Feb 01


                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ3025

PAGE 01        HARARE  00765  01 OF 03  161059Z 
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      OIC-02   OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   
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        /009W
                  ------------------C6946B  161059Z /38    
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 8240
INFO NSC WASHDC
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
						C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 000765 

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JFRAZER
LONDON FOR CGURNEY
PARIS FOR BWILLIAMS
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER
PASS USAID FOR AFR/SD - DWELLER, AFR/SA - CPALMA,
NNEWMAN, AA/AFR

E.O. 12958: DECL 02/16/11
TAGS: EAGR PGOV PHUM EAID ZI
SUBJECT: THE CURRENT STATE AND PROJECTED CONSEQUENCES
CONFIDENTIAL


PAGE 02 HARARE 00765 01 OF 03 161059Z
OF THE "FAST-TRACK" PROGRAM

REFS: A. HARARE 644, B. 00 HARARE 7271,

C. 00 HARARE 6662, D. 00 HARARE 6190

CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D' AFFAIRES EARL M. IRVING FOR
REASONS 1.5 (B/D).



1. (C) SUMMARY: THE GOVERNMENT OF ZIMBABWE (GOZ)
ANNOUNCED ON JANUARY 15 THE START OF PHASE II OF THE
"FAST-TRACK" LAND RESETTLEMENT PROGRAM, AIMED AT
RESETTLING A SEGMENT OF THE POPULATION AS COMMERCIAL
FARMERS. WHILE THIS PROGRAM APPEARS TO BE BASED ON A
PREVIOUS MODEL DEVELOPED IN CONSULTATION WITH DONORS,
MODEL A2, THE GOZ HAS NOT STATED THIS PUBLICLY AND FEW
SPECIFIC DETAILS OF THE NEW PHASE II PROGRAM HAVE BEEN
MADE PUBLIC. MEANWHILE, PHASE I OF THE "FAST-TRACK"
LAND RESETTLEMENT PROGRAM, AIMED AT RELOCATING PEASANTS
FROM THE RURAL COMMUNAL LANDS ONTO COMMERCIAL FARMS, HAS
BEEN ANYTHING BUT SUCCESSFUL. VIOLENT ASSAULTS BY "WAR
VETS" CONTINUE AGAINST FARMERS AND FARM WORKERS ON
ZIMBABWE'S OCCUPIED FARMS ON A WEEKLY BASIS. THE GOZ
HAS STEPPED UP ATTACKS ON THE JUDICIARY OVER ITS RULINGS
AGAINST THE "FAST-TRACK" PROGRAM AND FARM OCCUPATIONS.
MANY COMMERCIAL FARMERS WE HAVE TALKED TO BELIEVE THAT
PRESIDENT MUGABE'S GOAL IS NOT TO DESTROY COMMERCIAL
FARMING, BUT TO INTIMIDATE WHITE COMMERCIAL FARMERS SO
THAT THOSE WHO REMAIN IN ZIMBABWE WILL NEVER AGAIN
BECOME INVOLVED IN POLITICS. AS A RESULT OF THE FARM
OCCUPATIONS, THE "FAST-TRACK" PROGRAM'S SHORTFALLS, THE
ECONOMIC CRISIS, AND POOR RAINFALL IN SOME REGIONS OF
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 03 HARARE 00765 01 OF 03 161059Z
ZIMBABWE, THE GOZ WILL NEED TO IMPORT LARGE QUANTITIES
OF WHEAT, AND POSSIBLY MAIZE, BY THE END OF 2001, AT A
TIME WHEN IT WILL HAVE LITTLE HARD CURRENCY TO PAY FOR
THEM. END SUMMARY.



--------------------------


PHASE 2 - "IF AT FIRST YOU DON'T SUCCEED..."


--------------------------





2. (C) ON JANUARY 15 THE GOZ ANNOUNCED THROUGH A FULL-
PAGE AD IN THE GOZ-CONTROLLED "THE HERALD" THE BEGINNING
OF PHASE II OF "FAST-TRACK," WITH A STATED GOAL OF
DEVELOPING A NEW GENERATION OF INDIGENOUS SMALL-,
MEDIUM-, AND LARGE-SCALE COMMERCIAL FARMERS. PHASE II
APPEARS TO BE BASED ON A PLAN TO DEVELOP INDIGENOUS
COMMERCIAL FARMERS, WHICH WAS DEVELOPED BY THE GOZ IN
CONJUNCTION WITH DONORS IN 1998 AND CALLED MODEL A2.
UNDER PHASE II, THE FARM SIZES WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE
TYPE OF FARMING TO BE PURSUED, AND THE AREA'S RAINFALL
CLASSIFICATION. PHASE II IS AIMED AT ZIMBABWEANS WHO
HAVE A PROCLIVITY FOR COMMERCIAL FARMING AND HAVE ASSETS
THAT THEY CAN DEVOTE TO THIS ENDEAVOR. THE GOAL OF
PHASE I WAS TO GIVE SMALL PLOTS OF LAND TO CURRENT
COMMUNAL LAND SUBSISTENCE FARMERS. THE GOZ HAS ALREADY
DECLARED PHASE II TO BE A ROARING SUCCESS BASED ON THE
THOUSANDS OF ZIMBABWEANS WHO HAVE BESIEGED THE MINISTRY
OF LAND FOR THEIR FREE APPLICATIONS. YET, TO OUR
KNOWLEDGE, THE GOZ HAS NOT MADE PUBLIC ANY DETAILS AS TO
THE SPECIFIC CRITERIA THAT WILL BE USED TO AWARD LAND TO
BENEFICIARIES UNDER PHASE II, OR ANY OTHER SPECIFICS ON
HOW PHASE II WILL BE IMPLEMENTED. IN ADDITION, THE GOZ
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 04 HARARE 00765 01 OF 03 161059Z
HAS FEW RESOURCES TO HANDLE EVEN THE MOST RUDIMENTARY
ADMINISTRATIVE DETAILS OF PHASE II, LET ALONE TO PROVIDE
OTHER SUPPORT, INCLUDING SUBSIDIZED FINANCING, THAT THE
FUTURE INDIGENOUS COMMERCIAL FARMERS WILL NEED UNDER THE
PROGRAM.



--------------------------


PHASE I OF "FAST-TRACK" A RESOUNDING FAILURE


--------------------------





3. (C) PHASE I OF THE "FAST-TRACK" RESETTLEMENT PROGRAM,
WHICH HAS PRINCIPALLY ENTAILED THE ILLEGAL OCCUPATION OF
COMMERCIAL FARMS BY "WAR VETS" AND RURAL PEASANTS, IS,
BY MOST ACCOUNTS A FAILURE. THE GOZ MINISTER OF LANDS,
AGRICULTURE AND RURAL RESETTLEMENT, JOSEPH MADE, HAS
PUBLICLY STATED THAT 2597 FARMS TOTALING 5.9 MILLION
HECTARES HAVE BEEN GAZETTED FOR COMPULSORY ACQUISITION.
MOREOVER, HE HAS CLAIMED THAT 86,000 FAMILIES HAVE
ALREADY BEEN RESETTLED ON THREE MILLION HECTARES OF
COMMERCIAL FARMLAND. THESE ARE WIDELY BELIEVED TO BE
EXTREMELY INFLATED FIGURES. THE MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC
CHANGE (MDC) OPPOSITION STATES THAT AT MOST 5,000
FAMILIES HAVE BEEN RESETTLED TO DATE. MINISTER MADE HAS
ADMITTED THAT THE GOZ HAS ONLY PROVIDED TILLAGE SERVICE
ON 4,666 HECTARES OF LAND ACQUIRED UNDER "FAST-TRACK".

CONFIDENTIAL

CONFIDENTIAL PTQ3028

PAGE 01 HARARE 00765 02 OF 03 161100Z
ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AGRE-00 AID-00 AMAD-00 CIAE-00 COME-00
DODE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00 VC-00 H-01
TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00
OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00
P-00 SP-00 IRM-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 BBG-00
PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-01 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00
/009W


--------------------------

C69483 161100Z /38
R 161100Z FEB 01
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 8241
INFO NSC WASHDC
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 000765

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JFRAZER
LONDON FOR CGURNEY
PARIS FOR BWILLIAMS
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER
PASS USAID FOR AFR/SD - DWELLER, AFR/SA - CPALMA,
NNEWMAN, AA/AFR

E.O. 12958: DECL 02/16/11
TAGS: EAGR PGOV PHUM EAID ZI
SUBJECT: THE CURRENT STATE AND PROJECTED CONSEQUENCES
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 00765 02 OF 03 161100Z
OF THE "FAST-TRACK" PROGRAM

THE GOZ MINISTER OF FINANCE AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT,
SIMBA MAKONI, TOLD AN EMBASSY FSN INFORMALLY THAT ONLY
2,000 HECTARES OUT OF 200,000 ACQUIRED UNDER "FAST-
TRACK" HAVE BEEN UTILIZED THIS AGRICULTURAL SEASON.
MINISTER OF RURAL RESOURCES AND WATER DEVELOPMENT, JOYCE
MUJURU, STATED IN THE JANUARY 20 GOZ-CONTROLLED "THE
HERALD" NEWSPAPER THAT THE "FAST-TRACK" PROGRAM HAS
SUFFERED FROM A POOR TURNOUT OF BENEFICIARIES. THE CFU
AND INDIVIDUAL COMMERCIAL FARMERS HAVE TOLD US THAT MANY
OF THE PEOPLE "RESETTLED" UNDER PHASE I HAVE LEFT THE
COMMERCIAL FARMS AND GONE BACK TO THE COMMUNAL LANDS
AFTER IT BECAME CLEAR THAT THEY WERE GETTING NO
ASSISTANCE FROM THE GOZ. THE MINISTER OF LOCAL
GOVERNMENT, PUBLIC WORKS AND NATIONAL HOUSING, IGNATIUS
CHOMBO, HAS CONFIRMED THIS FACT BY STATING THAT MANY OF
THE PEOPLE WHO HAVE BEEN "RESETTLED" HAVE RENEGED ON
THEIR COMMITMENT TO TAKE OWNERSHIP OF THE LAND THEY HAVE
BEEN GIVEN AND HAVE GONE BACK TO THEIR HOMES. THE
SECRETARY-GENERAL OF THE GENERAL AGRICULTURE AND

SIPDIS
PLANTATION WORKERS UNION OF ZIMBABWE (GAPWUZ), PHILIP
MUNYANYI, CLAIMS THAT ONLY 318 FORMER FARM WORKERS'
FAMILIES HAVE BEEN RESETTLED UNDER PHASE I, OUT OF A
FARM LABOR FORCE OF 500,000.



--------------------------


VIOLENCE CONTINUES ON THE FARMS


--------------------------





4. (C) AS OF THE BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY, THE COMMERCIAL
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 03 HARARE 00765 02 OF 03 161100Z
FARMERS UNION (CFU) ESTIMATES THAT APPROXIMATELY 1100
COMMERCIAL FARMS REMAIN OCCUPIED. THE LEVEL OF
OCCUPATION VARIES, WITH SOME FARMS HAVING ONLY A HANDFUL
OF "WAR VETS", WHILE OTHERS HOST A HUNDRED OR MORE
SQUATTERS. EACH WEEK THERE ARE NEW REPORTS OF
COMMERCIAL FARMERS BEING THREATENED OR ASSAULTED, AND OF
THEIR FARM WORKERS BEING BEATEN AND EVICTED FROM THEIR
HOUSING. A NEW TACTIC BEING USED BY "WAR VETS" TO
HARASS FARMERS AND EXTRACT A CASH FLOW IS TO DRIVE A
FARMER'S CATTLE INTO AN AREA WHERE SQUATTERS HAVE
PLANTED MAIZE, AND THEN DEMAND EXORBITANT MONETARY
COMPENSATION FOR THE DAMAGE DONE TO THE MAIZE BY THE
CATTLE. THE CFU REPORTS THAT POLICE GENERALLY RESPOND
TO THE MORE SERIOUS CONFRONTATIONS AND VIOLENCE, BUT DO
NOTHING TO ARREST THE PERPETRATORS OF VIOLENCE OR PURSUE
CRIMES SUCH AS THE THEFT OF FARM PROPERTY. THERE HAS
BEEN NO PROGRESS BY THE POLICE IN INVESTIGATIONS OF THE
KILLINGS OF SIX WHITE COMMERCIAL FARMERS AND FIVE FARM
WORKERS SINCE LAST FEBRUARY.



--------------------------


BLAME THE FAILURE ON THE JUDICIARY


--------------------------





5. (C) MEANWHILE, THE GOZ LABELS THE JUDICIARY AS THE
VILLAIN RESPONSIBLE FOR DELAYING THE SUCCESS OF "FAST-
TRACK." IT CONTINUES TO IGNORE THE DECEMBER SUPREME
COURT RULING DECLARING THE CURRENT "FAST-TRACK" EXERCISE
UNCONSTITUTIONAL, AS WELL AS ALL OTHER COURT RULINGS
AGAINST "FAST-TRACK." FURTHERMORE, THE GOZ IS STILL
IGNORING COURT ORDERS FOR THE POLICE TO REMOVE ILLEGAL
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 04 HARARE 00765 02 OF 03 161100Z
OCCUPIERS AND RESTORE THE RULE OF LAW ON COMMERCIAL
FARMS. THOUGH THE GOZ FORCED THE HEAD SUPREME COURT
JUSTICE TO RESIGN LAST WEEK (REF A), PROBLEMS EXIST AT
ALL LEVELS OF THE JUDICIAL SYSTEM. LAST WEEK THE
ADMINISTRATIVE COURT DISMISSED THE GOZ'S REQUEST FOR
CONFIRMATION ORDERS ON THE ACQUISITION OF TWO COMMERCIAL
FARMS UNTIL THE GOZ PRODUCES A WORKABLE LAND REFORM
PROGRAM. THE CFU HAS TOLD US THAT AS OF THE BEGINNING
FEBRUARY, NO FARMS THAT HAVE BEEN IDENTIFIED FOR
COMPULSORY ACQUISITION BY THE GOZ SINCE "FAST-TRACK"
BEGAN IN JUNE 2000 HAVE YET BEEN LEGALLY ACQUIRED BY THE
GOZ. THE CFU ALSO TOLD US THAT THE GOZ IS NOT MEETING
DEADLINES FOR THE DELIVERY OF THE VARIOUS LEGAL NOTICES
REQUIRED IN THE COMPULSORY ACQUISITION PROCESS UNDER THE
LAND ACQUISITION ACT.



--------------------------


WHAT IS THE GOAL OF THIS WHOLE EXERCISE?


--------------------------





6. (C) IN ADDITION TO THE "FAST-TRACK" RESETTLEMENT
PROGRAM BEING VIEWED BY THE OPPOSITION MDC AS A
POLITICAL TACTIC BY MUGABE TO RESTORE HIS FLAGGING
POPULARITY AMONG THE POOR AND LANDLESS BLACK MAJORITY,
IT IS ALSO VIEWED BY THE CFU AND COMMERCIAL FARMERS AS A

CONFIDENTIAL

CONFIDENTIAL PTQ3034

PAGE 01 HARARE 00765 03 OF 03 161100Z
ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AGRE-00 AID-00 AMAD-00 CIAE-00 COME-00
DODE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00 VC-00 H-01
TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00
OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00
P-00 SP-00 IRM-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 BBG-00
PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-01 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00
/009W


--------------------------

C69495 161100Z /38
R 161100Z FEB 01
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 8242
INFO NSC WASHDC
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 000765

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JFRAZER
LONDON FOR CGURNEY
PARIS FOR BWILLIAMS
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER
PASS USAID FOR AFR/SD - DWELLER, AFR/SA - CPALMA,
NNEWMAN, AA/AFR

E.O. 12958: DECL 02/16/11
TAGS: EAGR PGOV PHUM EAID ZI
SUBJECT: THE CURRENT STATE AND PROJECTED CONSEQUENCES
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 00765 03 OF 03 161100Z
OF THE "FAST-TRACK" PROGRAM

WAY TO PUNISH THEM FOR THEIR PERCEIVED SUPPORT FOR THE
OPPOSITION. A VIEW HELD BY SOME MEMBERS OF THE CFU
EXECUTIVE BODY, AS WELL AS INDIVIDUAL COMMERCIAL FARMERS
WE HAVE TALKED TO, IS THAT MUGABE'S GOAL IS NOT TO DRIVE
ALL WHITE COMMERCIAL FARMERS FROM ZIMBABWE. RATHER, IT
IS TO DRIVE AN UNDETERMINED NUMBER OF WHITE COMMERCIAL
FARMERS OUT OF ZIMBABWE, AND THEREBY OBTAIN THEIR LAND
FOR RESETTLEMENT WITHOUT PAYING ANY COMPENSATION FOR THE
LAND. AT THE SAME TIME, MUGABE WANTS A CORE GROUP OF
WHITE COMMERCIAL FARMERS, WHOSE OPERATIONS WILL BRING IN
DESPERATELY NEEDED HARD CURRENCY, TO REMAIN IN ZIMBABWE.
THE THINKING GOES THAT THIS REMAINING GROUP OF WHITE
COMMERCIAL FARMERS WILL HAVE BEEN SO TRAUMATIZED BY THE
CURRENT "FAST-TRACK" RESETTLEMENT EXERCISE, THAT THEY
WILL NEVER AGAIN SUPPORT AN OPPOSITION PARTY.



--------------------------


A CONSEQUENCE IS FOOD INSECURITY


--------------------------





7. (C) THE OCCUPATIONS, THE ECONOMY, AND THE LACK OF
RAINFALL IN SOME AGRICULTURAL AREAS THIS SEASON HAVE ALL
CONTRIBUTED TO A SCENARIO WHERE THE GOZ MAY WELL HAVE TO
IMPORT LARGE QUANTITIES OF GRAIN AS EARLY AS AUGUST. AS
A RESULT OF THE FARM OCCUPATIONS AND UNCERTAINTIES
RELATED TO "FAST-TRACK", THE GOZ AGRITEX EARLY WARNING
UNIT REPORTED THAT THE TOTAL AREA UNDER CROPS IS DOWN BY
22 PERCENT FROM LAST YEAR, INCLUDING A 22 PERCENT DROP
IN THE AREA PLANTED IN MAIZE. THE CFU HAS TOLD US THAT
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 03 HARARE 00765 03 OF 03 161100Z
COMMERCIAL FARMERS HAVE PLANTED 48 PERCENT LESS MAIZE
(REFS B, C, AND D), AND THAT THE HECTARAGE PLANTED IN
WINTER WHEAT WILL ALSO BE REDUCED DRAMATICALLY BECAUSE
OF THE FARM OCCUPATIONS. A RECENT ANALYSIS BY THE
COMMERCIAL BANK OF ZIMBABWE ESTIMATES THAT THE GOZ WILL
NEED TO IMPORT BETWEEN 70,000 AND 130,000 METRIC TONS OF
WHEAT BY JULY. AGRITEX HAS ALSO REPORTED THAT RAINFALL
HAS BEEN BELOW AVERAGE OVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH
THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY, WITH THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
THE COUNTRY IN NEAR DROUGHT CONDITION. BOTH AGRITEX AND
THE USAID FEWS/NET ZIMBABWE HAVE REPORTED THAT COMMUNAL
FARMERS IN CERTAIN SOUTHERN DISTRICTS HAVE WRITTEN OFF
THEIR MAIZE CROPS THIS SEASON DUE TO THE LACK OF
RAINFALL. IN ADDITION, DUE TO PRICE HIKES, COMMUNAL
FARMERS NATIONWIDE ARE HARD PRESSED TO AFFORD THE MID-
SEASON FERTILIZER THEIR CROPS NEED. THE JANUARY USAID
FEWS/NET ZIMBABWE MONTHLY FOOD SECURITY UPDATE ESTIMATES
THAT IF ZIMBABWE FAILS TO RECEIVE SUFFICIENT RAINFALL IN
ITS BREADBASKET REGION DURING THE REMAINDER OF FEBRUARY,
A MAIZE PRODUCTION DEFICIT IS POSSIBLE THAT COULD
REQUIRE THE GOZ TO IMPORT BETWEEN 200,000 AND 400,000
METRIC TONS OF MAIZE BY THE END OF 2001.



8. (C) COMMENT: IT IS BECOMING MORE CLEAR THAT AN
AGRICULTURAL DISASTER IS LOOMING IN ZIMBABWE. WHILE
MUGABE MAY STILL REAP POLITICAL BENEFITS FROM THE "FAST-
TRACK" RESETTLEMENT EXERCISE AMONG POOR AND LANDLESS
ZIMBABWEANS, AND WITH PHASE II, CUT INTO THE MDC'S CORE
URBAN SUPPORT, IT IS CLEAR THAT FROM AN ECONOMIC
PERSPECTIVE THE "FAST-TRACK" RESETTLEMENT PROGRAM HAS
SUCCEEDED ONLY AT DISRUPTING PRODUCTION ON THE COUNTRY'S
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 04 HARARE 00765 03 OF 03 161100Z
COMMERCIAL FARMS, WHILE PROVIDING NO VIABLE SOLUTION TO
THE NEEDS OF LANDLESS PEOPLE AND THOSE LIVING ON
MARGINAL LAND IN THE COMMUNAL AREAS. BASED ON THE TRACK
RECORD OF PHASE I, WE DOUBT THAT PHASE II WILL BE ANY
MORE SUCCESSFUL AT ITS GOAL OF DEVELOPING "INSTANT"
INDIGENOUS COMMERCIAL FARMERS. HAVING DRIVEN AWAY
NEARLY ALL FOREIGN INVESTMENT AND MOST FOREIGN TOURISTS,
THE GOZ DOES NOT AND PROBABLY WILL NOT HAVE THE HARD
CURRENCY NEEDED TO PAY FOR GRAIN IMPORTS LATER THIS
YEAR. THE PROJECTED HARD CURRENCY EARNINGS FROM THE
SALE OF THE NATION'S TOBACCO CROP BEGINNING IN APRIL
HAVE ALREADY BEEN SPENT OR ALLOCATED BY THE GOZ, LEAVING
LITTLE FOR GRAIN IMPORTS. EVEN IF THERE IS AN IMMEDIATE
ABOUT-FACE ON THE GOZ'S LAND AND ECONOMIC POLICIES, A
DEVELOPMENT WE DO NOT FORESEE, THE GOZ WILL VERY LIKELY
NEED EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE TO FEED ITS PEOPLE BY THE END
OF 2001. END COMMENT.

IRVING

CONFIDENTIAL

>