ZANU-PF SEEKS TO NEUTRALIZE LABOR SUPPORT FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000661

SIPDIS

ILAB FOR RSHEPHARD
LONDON FOR CGURNEY
PARIS FOR BWILLIAMS
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER
PASS USAID FOR AFR/SD - DWELLER, AFR/SA - CPALMA,
NNEWMAN, AA/AFR

E.O. 12958: DECL 02/07/11
TAGS: ELAB PGOV PHUM PINR
SUBJECT: ZANU-PF SEEKS TO NEUTRALIZE LABOR SUPPORT FOR
MDC

REFS: A. HARARE 612, B. HARARE 573, C. 00 HARARE 3680

CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D' AFFAIRES EARL M. IRVING FOR
REASONS 1.5 (B/D).

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WHAT PRICE A PRO-ZANU-PF UNION LEADERSHIP?
--------------


1. (C) ON FEBRUARY 1, CHARGE, ACCOMPANIED BY POLOFF AND
LABOFF, MET WITH BRIAN RAFTOPOULOS (PROTECT),A RESEARCH
FELLOW IN THE INSTITUTE OF DEVELOPMENT STUDIES AT THE
UNIVERSITY OF ZIMBABWE, AND AN INSIGHTFUL CONTACT
REGARDING THE LOCAL POLITICAL SCENE. RAFTOPOULOS TOLD
US THAT HE HAS NO DOUBTS THAT ZANU-PF IS TRYING TO BUY
THE ELECTION OF A MORE FRIENDLY LEADERSHIP AT THE
ZIMBABWE CONGRESS OF TRADE UNIONS (ZCTU),IN ORDER TO
NEUTRALIZE LABOR AS A RICH SOURCE OF ORGANIZATIONAL
SUPPORT FOR THE MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC).
HE HAS HEARD FOR EXAMPLE, THAT THE ZANU-PF/GOZ HAS PAID
THE ARREARAGES OF TEN UNIONS AFFILIATED WITH THE ZCTU,
WHICH ALLOWS THEM TO PARTICIPATE IN THE UPCOMING
CONGRESS FEBRUARY 23-25 IN MASVINGO AND GIVES THEM
VOTING PRIVILEGES. THE FEBRUARY 1-7 EDITION OF THE
INDEPENDENT "FINANCIAL GAZETTE" DESCRIBED A ZANU-PF/GOZ
PLOT TO RIG THE UPCOMING CONGRESS ELECTIONS, INCLUDING
THE EXISTENCE OF A SLUSH FUND TO BE USED TOWARDS THIS
END AND CONTROLLED BY THE GOZ CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
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PAGE 03 HARARE 00661 01 OF 02 071508Z
ORGANIZATION (CIO). (NOTE: PER REFTELS THE ACTING
SECRETARY-GENERAL OF THE ZCTU, ISIDORE ZINDOGA, IS

SIPDIS
BELIEVED TO BE PRO-ZANU-PF, AND IF ELECTED AS SECRETARY
GENERAL, WOULD SEEK TO SEVER THE STRONG TIES BETWEEN THE
ZCTU AND THE MDC.)

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WHY NOT JUST MANHANDLE THE ZCTU?
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2. (C) RAFTOPOULOS ALSO BELIEVES THAT THE RULING PARTY
WILL SEND WAR VETERANS TO DEMONSTRATE OUTSIDE THE
CONGRESS VENUE IN MASVINGO, BUT THAT THE PARTY WILL NOT TRY
HEAVY-HANDED INTIMIDATION TACTICS LIKE THOSE USED IN THE
RECENT PARLIAMENTARY BY-ELECTIONS. THE UNION MEMBERSHIP
OF THE ZCTU WOULD NOT BE INTIMIDATED BY THESE TACTICS,
HE ADDED, AND THEY WOULD LIKELY BACKFIRE AND LEAD TO THE
ELECTION OF PRO-MDC LEADERS. RAFTOPOULOS EXPECTS THAT
ZANU-PF WILL STEP UP EFFORTS TO BRIBE INDIVIDUAL UNION
LEADERS AS THE CONGRESS APPROACHES, AS WELL AS RUN
STORIES IN THE MEDIA ON HOW THE MDC IS TRYING TO CONTROL
THE ZCTU FOR ITS OWN SELFISH AND NEFARIOUS PURPOSES.
THE JANUARY 31 EDITION OF THE GOZ-CONTROLLED "THE
HERALD" RAN A FEATURE STORY ENTITLED "ZCTU: TRADE
UNIONISM RISKS BEING SACRIFICED ON THE PEDESTAL OF
POLITICAL GREED." THE STORY CLAIMED THAT THE TRADE
UNION MOVEMENT WOULD SUFFER IF ITS MEMBERSHIP ALLOWS IT
TO BE AFFILIATED WITH THE MDC.

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CONGRESS OUTCOME IS CRITICAL TO THE MDC
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PAGE 04 HARARE 00661 01 OF 02 071508Z
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3. (C) RAFTOPOULOS MADE CLEAR THAT THE MDC'S FUTURE
SUCCESS AS A POLITICAL PARTY DEPENDS ON CONTINUED
SUPPORT FROM THE ZCTU. ANY ATTEMPT AT MASS ACTION BY
THE MDC REQUIRES THE SUPPORT AND ORGANIZING RESOURCES OF
THE ZCTU. SIMILARLY, RAFTOPOULOS BELIEVES THAT THE MDC
WOULD NOT BE ABLE TO RUN AN EFFECTIVE NATIONWIDE
PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN IN 2002 WITHOUT THE ZCTU. IT IS
FOR THIS REASON, HE ADDED, THAT ZANU-PF IS MAKING A
CONCERTED EFFORT TO BREAK THE TIES BETWEEN THE MDC AND
THE ZCTU.


4. (C) COMMENT: GIVEN THE HISTORY OF ZANU-PF, WE HAVE
LITTLE DOUBT THAT THE RULING PARTY IS ATTEMPTING TO
MANIPULATE AND/OR BUY THE ELECTION OF A SYMPATHETIC ZCTU
LEADERSHIP. SEPARATING THE MDC FROM ITS TRADE UNION
BASE IS A CENTRAL ELEMENT OF ZANU-PF'S "URBAN STRATEGY"
FOR THE 2002 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS. THE MDC IS TAKING
THIS CHALLENGE VERY SERIOUSLY, AND IS ORGANIZING ITS OWN
SUPPORTERS WITHIN THE UNIONS TO COUNTER THE ATTACK. THE
OUTCOME OF THIS STRUGGLE WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER THE PRO-
MDC UNION LEADERS PRESENT A SINGLE SLATE OF CANDIDATES
FOR THE ZCTU LEADERSHIP, AS WELL AS HOW EFFECTIVE THE
RULING PARTY IS AT BUYING THE VOTES OF UNION LEADERS.
END COMMENT.

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CONFIDENTIAL PTQ1076

PAGE 01 HARARE 00661 02 OF 02 071508Z
ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CEA-01 CIAE-00 COME-00
CTME-00 DINT-00 DODE-00 DOTE-00 WHA-00 SRPP-00 DS-00
EB-00 EUR-00 EXIM-01 E-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00
FRB-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 ITC-01 LAB-01
L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01
OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00
SSO-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-01
DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /013W
-------------- C23F51 071508Z /38
R 071507Z FEB 01
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 8184
INFO DEPT OF LABOR WASHDC
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 000661

SIPDIS

ILAB FOR RSHEPHARD
LONDON FOR CGURNEY
PARIS FOR BWILLIAMS
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER
PASS USAID FOR AFR/SD - DWELLER, AFR/SA - CPALMA,
NNEWMAN, AA/AFR

E.O. 12958: DECL 02/07/11
TAGS: ELAB PGOV PHUM PINR
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 00661 02 OF 02 071508Z
SUBJECT: ZANU-PF SEEKS TO NEUTRALIZE LABOR SUPPORT FOR
MDC

IRVING

CONFIDENTIAL

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