RULING PARTY PUTS OUT A FEELER TO THE

1. (C) MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC) SENIOR
ADVISOR CLIVE PUZEY (PROTECT) INFORMED POLITICAL SECTION
CHIEF ON FEBRUARY 2 THAT OVER THE JANUARY 27-28 WEEKEND,
GOODSON NGUNI, REPORTEDLY A RELATIVE OF SPEAKER OF
PARLIAMENT AND SENIOR ZANU-PF POLITBURO MEMBER EMMERSON
MNANGAGWA, INVITED THE OPPOSITION PARTY TO ENTER
FORTHWITH INTO A GOVERNMENT OF NATIONAL UNITY. ONLY
PUZEY AND NGUNI WERE PRESENT AT THE MEETING, BUT PUZEY
LATER BRIEFED MDC PRESIDENT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI AND TWO
OTHER SENIOR OPPOSITION PARTY MEMBERS ON THE SUBSTANCE
OF THE DISCUSSION. ZANU-PF WAS PREPARED TO OFFER THE
MDC 40 PERCENT OF CABINET POSITIONS PLUS A VICE
PRESIDENCY, ACCORDING TO PUZEY. IN EXCHANGE, THE ZANU-
PF OFFICIAL REPORTEDLY WANTED THE MDC'S AGREEMENT
NEITHER TO HOLD A PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN 2002 NOR
PROSECUTE SENIOR ZANU-PF MEMBERS FOR PAST MISDEEDS.
PUZEY LISTENED, MADE NO COMMITMENTS AND SUBSEQUENTLY,
WITH TSVANGIRAI'S BLESSING, AGREED TO CONTINUE LOW
PROFILE MEETINGS OUTSIDE ZIMBABWE, PERHAPS IN LUSAKA.



2. (C) THE MDC'S THINKING ON THE OFFER WAS STILL
INCHOATE BUT THE PARTY HAS NOT DISMISSED IT OUT OF HAND,
PUZEY ALLOWED. HE SAID THE OPPOSITION PARTY WOULD
INSIST ON HEADING THE ECONOMIC POLICY MINISTRIES AND
HOME AFFAIRS, AND ON THEIR CABINET MINISTERS BEING ABLE
TO SPEAK FREELY. THE VICE PRESIDENCY IS OUT, HE STATED,
AS IT WOULD TIE UP A SENIOR MDC FIGURE IN A POWERLESS IF
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PRESTIGIOUS POST, AND THE MDC LIKELY WOULD INSIST ON
GOING AHEAD WITH THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN 2002.
PUZEY CLAIMED THAT FIVE ZANU-PF MINISTERS, INCLUDING
SIMBA MAKONI AND NKOSANA MOYO, WERE FED UP AND "ARE ON
BOARD WITH US." THE MDC LEADERSHIP IS ALSO CONCERNED
THAT IT WILL BE UNABLE TO CONTAIN A WAVE OF VIOLENCE
THAT ITS ANGRY MEMBERS MIGHT START SPONTANEOUSLY,
POSSIBLY LEADING TO A DE FACTO CIVIL WAR. MOREOVER, OUR
INTERLOCUTOR SAID, EVEN IF THE MDC WINS THE 2002
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, ZANU-PF WOULD NOT ALLOW THE PARTY
TO ASSUME POWER. INSTEAD, PRESIDENT MUGABE ALMOST
CERTAINLY WOULD DECLARE MARTIAL LAW AND RULE BY DECREE.



3. (C) COMMENT: PUZEY HAD NO GOOD ANSWER AS TO WHY
ZANU-PF IS SENDING OUT SUCH A FEELER, ALTHOUGH WE FIND
THE OFFER A CREDIBLE ONE. IN OUR OPINION, THE RULING
PARTY IS UNDER STRONG PRESSURE FROM THE UNDER-PERFORMING
ECONOMY, THE LOOMING POOR HARVEST, INCREASING
INTERNATIONAL ISOLATION, AND AN OPPOSITION THAT IS
REAPING POLITICAL CAPITAL FROM ITS MISHAPS. IT MAKES
SENSE TO TAKE THE BOLD STROKE OF BRINGING THE OPPOSITION
INTO THE TENT AND GIVE IT IMPOSSIBLY DIFFICULT
PORTFOLIOS AT WHICH IT WOULD FAIL. IN THE MINDS OF
ZANU-PF STRATEGISTS, THE ATTACKS IN THE FOREIGN PRESS
WOULD THEN CEASE AND THE DONOR COMMUNITY WOULD OPEN ITS
PURSE TO FUND LAND REFORM AND OTHER DEVELOPMENT NEEDS.
MOST IMPORTANTLY, MUGABE WOULD REMAIN IN POWER AND HIS
CRONIES WOULD ENJOY PROTECTION FROM THE LAW. THE
OPPOSITION PARTY THUS WOULD BE CO-OPTED, DISCREDITED OR
NEUTRALIZED.

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4. (C) COMMENT CONTINUED: AT THE MOMENT IT APPEARS THAT
THE GOVERNMENT HOLDS THE GUNS AND THE MDC THE POLITICAL
LEGITIMACY HERE. FOLLOWING THIS OFFER, WE IMAGINE THE
OPPOSITION FINDS ITSELF ON THE HORNS OF A DILEMMA.
SHOULD IT LEND ITS GOOD NAME TO THE GOVERNMENT IN THE
SEARCH FOR PEACE AND ECONOMIC PROSPERITY, OR SHOULD IT
FIGHT FOR POWER ON ITS OWN TERMS IN WHAT COULD BE A
PYRRHIC VICTORY, GIVEN THE VIOLENCE THAT THE GOVERNMENT
CLEARLY IS PREPARED TO DEPLOY IN SUCH A CONTEST? END
COMMENT.

IRVING

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