MDC MP URGES INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY TO GET TOUGH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 000507

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR
LONDON FOR GURNEY
PARIS FOR WILLIAMS
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 00507 01 OF 03 250536Z
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER

E.O. 12958: DECL. 01/24/11
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINS ZI
SUBJECT: MDC MP URGES INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY TO GET TOUGH
WITH MUGABE


CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES EARL IRVING. REASONS: 1.5
(B) AND (D).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC) MP DAVID
COLTART TOLD POLOFFS ON JANUARY 24 THAT ZIMBABWE'S
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION MUST BE HELD BETWEEN JANUARY 1 AND
MARCH 31, 2002, AND SAID ANY ATTEMPT TO CALL AN EARLIER
ELECTION WOULD BE UNCONSTITUTIONAL. HE CLAIMED THAT THE
MDC HAS THE SUPPORT TO WIN AN ELECTION THAT IS EVEN CLOSE
TO FREE AND FAIR, AND SAID THE PARTY WOULD FOCUS ON
REGISTERING THE 600,000 ZIMBABWEANS EXPECTED TO TURN 18
BETWEEN LAST JUNE'S PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION AND THE UPCOMING
PRESIDENTIAL POLL. ACCORDING TO COLTART, A COORDINATED
CAMPAIGN OF PRESSURE ON PRESIDENT MUGABE BY THE
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY -- PARTICULARLY COMMONWEALTH
NATIONS -- IS ESSENTIAL TO ACHIEVING RESTORATION OF THE
RULE OF LAW AND A FREE AND FAIR PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.
COLTART EXPRESSED SERIOUS CONCERN ABOUT INCREASING
HARASSMENT AND INTIMIDATION OF SUPREME COURT JUSTICES, AND
ASKED THAT THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY DO WHAT IT CAN TO
BOLSTER THE JUDICIARY. END SUMMARY.
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2002 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
--------------


2. (C) IN A JANUARY 24 DISCUSSION OF RECENT POLITICAL
DEVELOPMENTS WITH POLOFFS, MDC MEMBER OF PARLIAMENT AND
SECRETARY FOR LEGAL AFFAIRS -- AND PROMINENT HUMAN RIGHTS

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LAWYER -- DAVID COLTART NOTED THAT THE PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTION MUST BE HELD BETWEEN JANUARY 1 AND MARCH 31, 2002.
ACCORDING TO COLTART, THE CONSTITUTION REQUIRES THAT A
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION BE HELD WITHIN 90 DAYS PRIOR TO THE
EXPIRATION OF THE INCUMBENT'S TERM, AND PRESIDENT MUGABE'S
CURRENT TERM EXPIRES ON APRIL 1, 2002. HE DISMISSED THE
POSSIBILITY THAT ZANU-PF COULD CALL A SNAP ELECTION LATER
THIS YEAR IN AN EFFORT TO CATCH THE MDC OFF-GUARD, SAYING
SUCH A MOVE WOULD BE UNCONSTITUTIONAL. THE ONLY WAY AN
ELECTION COULD BE HELD EARLIER THAN THE SPECIFIED 90-DAY
PERIOD, COLTART SAID, WOULD BE IN THE EVENT MUGABE
RESIGNED, DIED, OR WAS INCAPACITATED.


3. (C) COLTART INSISTED THAT ZIMBABWEAN DEMOGRAPHICS FAVOR
THE MDC IN THE UPCOMING PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. ZANU-PF, HE
POINTED OUT, WON 200,000 FEWER VOTES THAN THE OPPOSITION
PARTIES IN LAST JUNE'S PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS AND WOULD BE
UNLIKELY, FOR TWO REASONS, TO PRESERVE EVEN THAT MARGIN IN

2002. FIRST, COLTART CONTENDED, ZANU-PF RECEIVED AS MANY
VOTES AS IT DID BECAUSE MANY OF THE RULING PARTY'S
PARLIAMENTARY CANDIDATES WERE POPULAR IN THEIR LOCAL
COMMUNITIES. MUGABE, THOUGH, WOULD NOT RECEIVE AS MANY
VOTES NATIONWIDE AS HIS PARTY DID, BECAUSE HE IS DEEPLY
UNPOPULAR. SECOND, COLTART NOTED, SOME 600,000 ZIMBABWEANS
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ARE EXPECTED TO TURN 18 -- AND THUS BECOME ELIGIBLE TO VOTE
-- BEFORE THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, AND HE CLAIMED THAT
MOST OF THESE POTENTIAL NEW VOTERS LIVE IN URBAN AREAS AND
ARE COMPLETELY DISILLUSIONED WITH PRESIDENT MUGABE AND
ZANU-PF. ONE OF THE MDC'S KEY ELECTORAL STRATEGIES,
THEREFORE, IS TO REGISTER AS MANY OF THESE 18-YEAR-OLDS AS
POSSIBLE. COLTART ASKED FOR U.S. ASSISTANCE IN ENSURING A
FAIR, TRANSPARENT REGISTRATION PROCESS, NOTING THAT THE GOZ
HAS IN THE PAST ERECTED OBSTACLES TO THE REGISTRATION OF
VOTERS SUSPECTED OF SUPPORTING THE OPPOSITION.

ZANU-PF IN END GAME STRATEGY
--------------


4. (C) COLTART SAID THE RECENT PARLIAMENTARY BY-ELECTIONS
IN MARONDERA AND BIKITA HAD CONFIRMED THAT ZANU-PF IS
DETERMINED TO EMPLOY ANY MEANS TO HOLD ON TO POWER. THE
MDC, HOWEVER, DOES NOT HAVE THE CAPACITY OR INCLINATION TO
COUNTER THE TERROR CAMPAIGNS THAT THE RULING PARTY IS
CLEARLY PREPARED TO ORCHESTRATE IN OTHER BY-ELECTIONS.
COLTART, THEREFORE, IS ADVISING THE MDC LEADERSHIP NOT TO
BE AS STRIDENT IN PURSUING ITS CHALLENGES TO ZANU'S
ELECTORAL VICTORIES IN 38 CONSTITUENCIES IN LAST JUNE'S
PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS. IF THESE CHALLENGES ARE
SUCCESSFUL AND RESULT IN THE HOLDING OF BY-ELECTIONS, THE

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INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 AMAD-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 SMEC-00
INL-00 DINT-00 DODE-00 DOEE-00 WHA-00 SRPP-00 DS-00
EAP-00 EB-00 EUR-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00
INR-00 IO-00 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NEA-00 NSAE-00
OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00
P-00 SP-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 SA-00 R-00
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P 250534Z JAN 01
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8077
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA
AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON
AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI
AMEMBASSY ABUJA
AMEMBASSY ACCRA
AMEMBASSY CANBERRA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 000507

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR
LONDON FOR GURNEY
PARIS FOR WILLIAMS
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 00507 02 OF 03 250536Z
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER

E.O. 12958: DECL. 01/24/11
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINS ZI
SUBJECT: MDC MP URGES INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY TO GET TOUGH
WITH MUGABE

MDC'S PREFERENCE WOULD BE FOR THEM TO BE CONDUCTED IN
TRANCHES, RATHER THAN INDIVIDUALLY, AS THIS WOULD POSE A
LOGISTICAL CHALLENGE FOR ZANU-PF AND ITS TACTICS OF
VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION. (NOTE: COLTART MENTIONED THAT
ANOTHER BY-ELECTION MAY SOON BE IN THE OFFING BECAUSE THE
ZANU-PF MP FOR MWENEZI DISTRICT, ISAIAH SHUMBA, IS "ON HIS
DEATH BED." END NOTE.)

CRUCIAL ROLE OF INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY
--------------


5. (C) COLTART STRESSED THAT A COORDINATED CAMPAIGN OF
PRESSURE ON PRESIDENT MUGABE BY THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY
-- PARTICULARLY COMMONWEALTH NATIONS WHICH HAVE
HISTORICALLY ENJOYED GOOD RELATIONS WITH ZIMBABWE -- IS
ESSENTIAL TO BRINGING ABOUT A RESTORATION OF THE RULE OF
LAW AND ENSURING A PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION THAT IS FREE AND
FAIR. COLTART MENTIONED INDIA, CANADA, AUSTRALIA, NEW
ZEALAND, GHANA, BOTSWANA, AND NIGERIA AS NATIONS THAT COULD
PLAY A PARTICULARLY CONSTRUCTIVE ROLE. HE THOUGHT THE
UNITED STATES COULD BE MOST EFFECTIVE BEHIND THE SCENES IN
PRESSING OUR FRIENDS IN THE COMMONWEALTH TO DELIVER A VERY
TOUGH MESSAGE TO MUGABE. THE ESSENCE OF THAT MESSAGE,
COLTART URGED, SHOULD BE THAT THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY
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WILL NOT TOLERATE THE GOZ'S CONTINUED ABUSE OF THE RULE OF
LAW AND THAT, IF THE PRESIDENT CONTINUES TO VIOLATE THE
HUMAN RIGHTS OF HIS CITIZENS IN AN EFFORT TO REMAIN IN
POWER, HE CAN EXPECT TO FACE SPECIFIC CONSEQUENCES. SUCH
CONSEQUENCES, COLTART EXPLAINED, MIGHT INCLUDE A BAN ON
INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL BY MUGABE AND HIS CRONIES AND/OR A
COORDINATED INVESTIGATION OF THE AMOUNT AND LOCATION OF
THEIR ASSETS. THE THREAT OF HAVING HIS ASSETS SEIZED,
COLTART BELIEVED, WOULD FORCE MUGABE TO REVERSE HIS MORE
OBJECTIONABLE AND DAMAGING POLICIES.


6. (C) POLOFF ASKED WHO SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY TARGETS OF
A TRAVEL BAN OR INTERNATIONAL INVESTIGATION. COLTART
REPLIED THAT, LAST NOVEMBER, HE HAD SHARED WITH FORMER AF
DAS WITNEY SCHNEIDMAN AND AF/S A PAPER IMPLICATING ELEVEN
SENIOR GOZ OFFICIALS, INCLUDING PRESIDENT MUGABE, IN
SERIOUS HUMAN RIGHTS ABUSES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MATABELELAND MASSACRES IN THE 1980S AND WITH THE CAMPAIGN
OF VIOLENCE WHICH PRECEDED THE JUNE 2000 PARLIAMENTARY
ELECTION.

JUDICIARY NEEDS HELP
--------------


7. (C) COLTART EXPRESSED CONCERN THAT THE SUPREME COURT,
AND CHIEF JUSTICE GUBBAY IN PARTICULAR, HAS COME UNDER
IMMENSE PRESSURE FROM THE EXECUTIVE BRANCH, RANGING FROM
THE NOVEMBER INVASION OF THE COURT BY WAR VETERANS AND
RENT-A-THUGS TO REPEATED PUBLIC CRITICISMS BY SENIOR GOZ
OFFICIALS. COLTART SAID HE HAS NO DOUBT THAT THE GOZ WANTS
TO TRY TO FORCE GUBBAY TO RETIRE BEFORE HE REACHES HIS
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MANDATORY RETIREMENT AGE IN APRIL 2002 AND TO REPLACE HIM
WITH THE PLIABLE PRO-ZANU JUDGE PRESIDENT OF THE HIGH
COURT, GODFREY CHIDIYAUSIKU. GUBBAY, COLTART CLAIMED, IS
FEELING INCREASINGLY ISOLATED AND MIGHT SOON SUCCUMB TO THE
PRESSURE TO RESIGN. COLTART MADE A STRONG PLEA FOR THE
UNITED STATES AND OTHERS TO DEMONSTRATE PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR
THE JUDICIARY AND ITS INDEPENDENCE.

COMMENT
--------------


8. (C) WE SHARE COLTART'S ANALYSIS THAT PRESIDENT MUGABE
ALMOST CERTAINLY CANNOT WIN AN ELECTION THAT APPROACHES
FREE AND FAIR AND WILL USE ALL THE RESOURCES AT HIS
DISPOSAL TO STAY IN POWER. THE RESIGNATION OF CHIEF
JUSTICE GUBBAY -- AND HIS REPLACEMENT WITH GODFREY
CHIDIYAUSIKU -- WOULD HAVE A CHILLING EFFECT ON THE RULE OF
LAW, EFFECTIVELY NEUTRALIZING THE ONE REMAINING BRANCH OF
GOVERNMENT THAT PROVIDES A CHECK ON MUGABE'S POWERS. WE
ARE BEGINNING TO REACH THE CONCLUSION THAT ONLY SIGNIFICANT
AND COORDINATED EXTERNAL PRESSURE IMPOSED VIA THE KIND OF
DIPLOMATIC CAMPAIGN COLTART SUGGESTS, WITH TOUGH STICKS, IS
LIKELY TO FORCE MUGABE TO STEP BACK FROM HIS PRESENT
DISASTROUS COURSE.

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ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 AMAD-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 SMEC-00
INL-00 DINT-00 DODE-00 DOEE-00 WHA-00 SRPP-00 DS-00
EAP-00 EB-00 EUR-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00
INR-00 IO-00 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NEA-00 NSAE-00
OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00
P-00 SP-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 SA-00 R-00
PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-01 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00
/009W
-------------- BB41CC 250536Z /38
P 250534Z JAN 01
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8078
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA
AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON
AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI
AMEMBASSY ABUJA
AMEMBASSY ACCRA
AMEMBASSY CANBERRA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 000507

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR
LONDON FOR GURNEY
PARIS FOR WILLIAMS
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 00507 03 OF 03 250536Z
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER

E.O. 12958: DECL. 01/24/11
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINS ZI
SUBJECT: MDC MP URGES INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY TO GET TOUGH
WITH MUGABE

IRVING

CONFIDENTIAL

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