A/S KANSTEINER DELIVERS TOUGH MESSAGE TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 06 HARARE 003690

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER
LONDON FOR GURNEY
PARIS FOR NEARY
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER

E.O. 12958: DECL. 12/12/11

TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM PINR ZI
SUBJECT: A/S KANSTEINER DELIVERS TOUGH MESSAGE TO
ZIMBABWEAN OFFICIALS


CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF MATT HARRINGTON.
REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND (D).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) IN MEETINGS DECEMBER 10-11 WITH SPEAKER OF
PARLIAMENT EMMERSON MNANGAGWA, FOREIGN MINISTER STANISLAUS
MUDENGE, AND FINANCE MINISTER SIMBA MAKONI -- AF ASSISTANT
SECRETARY KANSTEINER EXPLAINED ZDERA AND ITS IMPLICATIONS.

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HE EMPHASIZED THAT THERE IS STILL TIME FOR THE GOVERNMENT
OF ZIMBABWE TO AVOID RESTRICTIONS TARGETED AT THE RULING
ELITE BY REDUCING VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION AND ENSURING
THE ELECTORAL PROCESS IS FREE AND FAIR. KANSTEINER SAID
THE USG WOULD USE THE ELECTORAL NORMS AND STANDARDS
ENDORSED IN MARCH BY THE SADC PARLIAMENTARY FORUM AS OUR
BENCHMARKS IN ASSESSING THE FAIRNESS OF THE ELECTORAL
PROCESS. MNANGAGWA CLAIMED THAT THE POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT
HAD IMPROVED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PREVIOUS THREE MONTHS,
AND BLAMED MOST INCIDENTS OF VIOLENCE ON THE MDC AND ITS
SUPPORTERS. HE PROMISED TO "STUDY" OUR CONCERNS ABOUT
PROPOSED AMENDMENTS TO THE ELECTORAL ACT, AND LATER CALLED
THE AMBASSADOR TO SAY HE AND THE PRESIDENT HAD DECIDED TO
EXPUNGE ONE PARTICULARLY TROUBLING PROVISION. MUDENGE WAS
COMBATIVE, DISMISSING KANSTEINER'S REFERENCES TO PRESIDENT
MBEKI'S RECENT EXPRESSIONS OF CONCERN ABOUT ZIMBABWE AND
INSISTING THAT THE SADC-PF ELECTORAL NORMS AND STANDARDS
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DOCUMENT WAS AN "INTERNAL COMMITMENT AMONG FRIENDS" THAT
SHOULD NOT RECEIVE SCRUTINY FROM OUTSIDE THE REGION. THE
FOREIGN MINISTER PRESSED FOR A LARGE U.S. ROLE IN THE DRC,
AND SAID ZIMBABWEAN TROOPS WOULD WITHDRAW WHEN ASKED TO DO
SO BY KINSHASA, "LUSAKA OR NO LUSAKA." MAKONI PAINTED A
DISMAL PICTURE OF ZIMBABWE'S SHORT-TERM ECONOMIC PROSPECTS,
AND ENGAGED CONSTRUCTIVELY WITH US ABOUT HOW THE GOZ MIGHT
FORESTALL IMPOSITION OF TARGETED RESTRICTIONS ON ITS
LEADERSHIP. END SUMMARY.

ZDERA
--------------


2. (C) THE PASSAGE OF THE ZIMBABWE DEMOCRACY AND ECONOMIC
RECOVERY ACT (ZDERA) SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE A/S KANSTEINER'S
ARRIVAL ENSURED THAT ZDERA WOULD FIGURE PROMINENTLY IN HIS
DISCUSSIONS. THE ASSISTANT SECRETARY TOLD ALL THREE GOZ
MINISTERS THAT ZDERA REFLECTS SERIOUS CONGRESSIONAL
CONCERNS -- SHARED BY THE ADMINISTRATION -- ABOUT THE
DIRECTION OF EVENTS IN ZIMBABWE. ONCE THE SENATE AND HOUSE
RECONCILE THE MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THEIR VERSIONS, THE
SINGLE TEXT WILL BE SENT TO THE PRESIDENT FOR SIGNATURE
INTO LAW. KANSTEINER EMPHASIZED THAT ZDERA IS NOT A
SANCTIONS BILL. RATHER, IT INCLUDES CARROTS AND STICKS
WHICH CAN BE USED TO INFLUENCE THE GOZ IN A POSITIVE
DIRECTION, AND INSTRUCTS THE ADMINISTRATION TO CONSULT WITH
KEY INTERNATIONAL PARTNERS -- THE EU, THE COMMONWEALTH, AND
SADC -- ABOUT THEIR IMPLEMENTATION. IF THE GOZ DOES NOT
MEET CERTAIN BENCHMARKS -- ENSURING A RETURN TO THE RULE OF
LAW, RESPECT FOR HUMAN RIGHTS, AN END TO GOVERNMENT-
SANCTIONED VIOLENCE, AND A FREE AND FAIR ELECTION -- THE
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USG HAS THE OPTION OF IMPOSING RESTRICTIONS ON MEMBERS OF
ZIMBABWE'S RULING ELITE, INCLUDING TRAVEL BANS AND FREEZING
OF ASSETS. THERE IS STILL TIME FOR THE GOZ TO REVERSE
COURSE AND AVOID SUCH PUNITIVE ACTION, KANSTEINER ASSERTED.


3. (C) SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT EMMERSON MNANGAGWA EXPRESSED
SURPRISE THAT THE U.S. CONGRESS WOULD PASS SUCH A BILL, AS
ZIMBABWE ASPIRES TO BE A "SHINING DEMOCRACY." THE KEY
ACTORS WHO NEED TO ENSURE THAT THE ELECTIONS ARE FREE AND
FAIR, ACCORDING TO MNANGAGWA, ARE ZIMBABWEANS THEMSELVES.
IN A TENSE EXCHANGE, FM MUDENGE SAID THE BILL WAS "NOT
HELPFUL," AND DISDAINFULLY REFERRED TO THE SECTION ON
TARGETED PERSONAL SANCTIONS AS "JESSE HELMS-INSPIRED."
KANSTEINER POINTED OUT THAT THE BILL HAD PASSED
OVERWHELMINGLY IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES, AND THAT
NOT A SINGLE MEMBER OF THE CONGRESSIONAL BLACK CAUCUS HAD
VOTED AGAINST IT. MUDENGE SAID HE UNDERSTOOD WHERE THE
BILL WAS COMING FROM BUT URGED THE USG TO CONVEY ITS
CONCERNS PRIVATELY TO THE GOZ, NOT DO SO WITH GRAND
GESTURES OR THROUGH THE MEDIA.


4. (C) IN A CONSTRUCTIVE AND OPEN CONVERSATION, FINANCE
MINISTER MAKONI ASKED WHAT ZIMBABWE NEEDED TO DO TO AVOID

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INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
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AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
AMEMBASSY OSLO
AMEMBASSY CANBERRA
AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM
AMEMBASSY KINGSTON
AMEMBASSY ABUJA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 06 HARARE 003690

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER
LONDON FOR GURNEY
PARIS FOR NEARY
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER

E.O. 12958: DECL. 12/12/11
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PAGE 02 HARARE 03690 02 OF 06 121707Z
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM PINR ZI
SUBJECT: A/S KANSTEINER DELIVERS TOUGH MESSAGE TO
ZIMBABWEAN OFFICIALS

IMPLEMENTATION OF THE TARGETED RESTRICTIONS. THE GOZ
SHOULD DO EVERYTHING POSSIBLE TO ENSURE THAT THE ELECTION
PROCESS IS TRANSPARENT AND ABOVE BOARD, AND REDUCE VIOLENCE
AND INTIMIDATION, KANSTEINER SAID. THE ASSISTANT SECRETARY
EMPHASIZED THAT THE GOZ'S OWN ACTIONS WILL DETERMINE
WHETHER THE RESTRICTIONS WILL BE IMPLEMENTED. "YOU HAVE
YOUR FINGER ON THE TRIGGER," HE SAID, "AND YOU CAN
DETERMINE WHETHER TO PULL IT."

VIOLENCE
--------------


5. (C) KANSTEINER SAID THE USG FULLY SHARED PRESIDENT
MBEKI'S STRONG CONCERNS ABOUT ONGOING VIOLENCE AND
INTIMIDATION WHICH, ALTHOUGH NOT ONE-SIDED, WAS
PREDOMINANTLY TARGETED AGAINST OPPOSITION SUPPORTERS.
MNANGAGWA BLAMED THE VIOLENCE ON THE MDC AND ITS
SUPPORTERS. ZANU-PF, HE SAID, IS THE DOMINANT PARTY WHICH
HAS NO INTEREST IN SEEKING CONFRONTATION WITH "SMALL
PEOPLE." IT IS THE NEWCOMERS TO THE POLITICAL SCENE, THOSE
STRIVING FOR POWER, WHO INITIATE SUCH PROBLEMS. MNANGAGWA
SAID HE THOUGHT THE POLITICAL SITUATION HAD IMPROVED DURING
THE PAST THREE MONTHS. NO MORE LAND INVASIONS HAVE
OCCURRED, HE CLAIMED, AND THERE IS NOW LESS VIOLENCE ON
FARMS. THE AMBASSADOR RECALLED AN EARLIER CONVERSATION
WITH MNANGAGWA IN WHICH THE SPEAKER HAD INDICATED HIS
INTEREST IN SECURING THE AGREEMENT OF THE TWO MAJOR PARTIES
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TO AN ELECTORAL CODE OF CONDUCT. SUCH AN AGREEMENT WOULD
SEND A VERY POSITIVE SIGNAL TO THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY,
KANSTEINER ADDED. MNANGAGWA REPORTED THAT ONGOING TALKS
BETWEEN ZANU-PF AND THE MDC ARE FOCUSED ON THIS ISSUE, BUT
HE DID NOT ELABORATE ON WHETHER MUCH PROGRESS HAD BEEN
ACHIEVED.


6. (C) KANSTEINER REGISTERED HIS CONCERN WITH MNANGAGWA
ABOUT THE CASE OF FLETCHER DULINI-NCUBE, THE MDC'S NATIONAL
TREASURER. DULINI-NCUBE HAS BEEN IN DETENTION SINCE MID-
NOVEMBER, CHARGED WITH INVOLVEMENT IN THE MURDER OF LATE
WAR VETERAN LEADER CAIN NKALA. THE ASSISTANT SECRETARY
SAID HE UNDERSTOOD CRIMINAL INVESTIGATIONS ARE ONGOING, BUT
HE URGED THAT DULINI-NCUBE BE GRANTED BAIL IN THE INTERIM,
AS HIS HEALTH IS APPARENTLY FAILING. MNANGAGWA SAID IT IS
IMPORTANT THAT THE LAW TAKE ITS COURSE AND THAT THE MDC
OFFICIAL WOULD EVENTUALLY BE RELEASED IF ACQUITTED.


7. (C) FM MUDENGE STRONGLY OBJECTED TO KANSTEINER'S
REFERENCE TO PRESIDENT MBEKI. HE SAID HE HAD TOLD BRITISH
FM JACK STRAW THE DAY BEFORE WHEN HE HAD MADE A SIMILAR
COMMENT THAT STRAW DID NOT SPEAK FOR THABO MBEKI. "WHEN I
WANT TO KNOW WHAT THE SOUTH AFRICANS THINK, I WILL ASK
THEM. TODAY, I WANT TO HEAR U.S. VIEWS." HE CLAIMED THAT
THE GOZ HAS MADE SIGNIFICANT EFFORTS TO REDUCE VIOLENCE,
BUT LAMENTED THAT THE TASK IS DIFFICULT SINCE LAND IS AN
"EMOTIVE ISSUE." SO ARE POLITICS AND ELECTIONS, KANSTEINER
COUNTERED. YES, MUDENGE AGREED, BUT HE NOTED THAT ZANU-PF
HAD LOST TO THE MDC IN THE DECEMBER 8-9 MAYORAL ELECTION IN
CHEGUTU (SEPTEL) AND WOULD LOSE THE HARARE MAYORAL
ELECTION, DUE TO TAKE PLACE BY FEBRUARY 11. GIVEN THE FACT
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THAT THE MDC HAS WON ALL THREE MAYORAL ELECTIONS HELD THIS
YEAR, MUDENGE SAID THE MDC'S COMPLAINTS ABOUT THE
UNFAIRNESS OF THE ELECTORAL PROCESS ARE MERELY TACTICAL.

YOU WANT RULE OF LAW, WE'LL GIVE YOU RULE OF LAW
-------------- ---


8. (C) A/S KANSTEINER EXPRESSED CONCERN ABOUT PENDING
LEGISLATION DRAFTED BY THE GOZ. PROPOSED AMENDMENTS TO THE
ELECTORAL ACT ARE VERY RESTRICTIVE -- THE MOST WORRISOME
PROVISIONS WOULD CRIMINALIZE POLITICAL POSTERS, LIMIT VOTER
EDUCATION, AND REQUIRE THAT ELECTION MONITORS BE DRAWN FROM
THE RANKS OF CIVIL SERVANTS. THE ACCESS TO INFORMATION AND
PROTECTION OF PRIVACY BILL WAS ALSO TROUBLING, AS IT WOULD
PLACE STRINGENT CONSTRAINTS ON THE MEDIA, REQUIRING, FOR
INSTANCE, THE LICENSING OF JOURNALISTS BY THE MINISTER OF
INFORMATION AND FORBIDDING ARTICLES OR POLITICAL CARTOONS
THAT DENIGRATE OR "INCITE DISAFFECTION FOR" THE PRESIDENT
OR LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES.


9. (C) WHEN MNANGAGWA PROFESSED IGNORANCE OF THE PROVISION
ON POLITICAL POSTERS, THE AMBASSADOR SHOWED HIM A COPY OF
THE TEXT. MNANGAGWA SAID THE INTENTION OF THAT PROVISION

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FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0518
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
AMEMBASSY OSLO
AMEMBASSY CANBERRA
AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM
AMEMBASSY KINGSTON
AMEMBASSY ABUJA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 06 HARARE 003690

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER
LONDON FOR GURNEY
PARIS FOR NEARY
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER

E.O. 12958: DECL. 12/12/11
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PAGE 02 HARARE 03690 03 OF 06 121708Z
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM PINR ZI
SUBJECT: A/S KANSTEINER DELIVERS TOUGH MESSAGE TO
ZIMBABWEAN OFFICIALS

WAS TO PROHIBIT THE DEFACING OF PROPERTY AND CREATION OF
SITUATIONS THAT MIGHT ENDANGER ORDINARY CITIZENS -- SUCH AS
COVERING TRAFFIC SIGNS WITH POLITICAL GRAFFITI. MNANGAGWA
THOUGHT THAT MONITORS WOULD BE DRAWN FROM THE PUBLIC AT
LARGE, NOT JUST CIVIL SERVANTS. WHEN THE AMBASSADOR AGAIN
POINTED OUT THE RELEVANT PROVISION IN THE PROPOSED
LEGISLATION, MNANGAGWA SAID HE HAD BEEN UNAWARE OF THAT
CHANGE AND UNDERTOOK TO STUDY IT. REGARDING INTERNATIONAL
OBSERVERS, MNANGAGWA SAID DELEGATIONS FROM THE OAU, THE
COMMONWEALTH, THE EU, AND THE SADC PARLIAMENTARY FORUM HAD
OBSERVED PREVIOUS ELECTIONS, BUT HE WAS NOT SURE WHETHER
THE EU WOULD BE INVITED THIS TIME. MNANGAGWA SAID HE
SUPPORTED THE PROPOSED REQUIREMENT THAT NGOS INTENDING TO
CONDUCT VOTER EDUCATION REGISTER WITH THE ESC, WHICH WOULD
ALSO APPROVE ANY MATERIALS THEY PLANNED TO USE. GOVERNMENT
HAD LITTLE CHOICE BUT TO TAKE THIS STEP, MNANGAGWA
INSISTED, AS NGOS IN THE PAST WERE GIVEN FREE REIN TO
CONDUCT VOTER EDUCATION CAMPAIGNS, AND SOME USED THIS
FREEDOM TO LOBBY FOR PARTICULAR POLITICAL PARTIES.


10. (C) (NOTE: ASKED AT THE END OF THEIR CONVERSATION HOW
MANY OF THE SPEAKER'S CHILDREN ARE STUDYING IN THE U.S.,
MNANGAGWA SAID TWO, BOTH AT MIDLANDS UNIVERSITY IN TEXAS.
TWO DAYS LATER, THE SPEAKER PHONED THE AMBASSADOR TO SAY
THAT HE AND THE PRESIDENT HAD "FIXED" THE ELECTORAL ACT
CONCERNS WE HAD RAISED, SPECIFICALLY EXPUNGING THE
REQUIREMENT THAT ONLY CIVIL SERVANTS COULD SERVE AS
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PAGE 03 HARARE 03690 03 OF 06 121708Z
MONITORS. HE ALSO EXPRESSED HIS OPENNESS TO FINDING A
MECHANISM WHEREBY POLITICAL PARTIES CAN CONTRIBUTE TO ESC
DELIBERATIONS. END NOTE.)


11. (C) WHEN KANSTEINER PRAISED THE GOZ DECISION TO EXTEND
THE VOTER REGISTRATION DEADLINE FROM DECEMBER 9 TO DECEMBER
19, MUDENGE SAID ZANU-PF NEEDED MORE TIME TO GETS ITS
SUPPORTERS REGISTERED. THE FOREIGN MINISTER SAID SOME GOOD
CHANGES ARE INCLUDED IN THE PROPOSED ELECTORAL ACT
AMENDMENTS. ONE, FOR INSTANCE, WOULD PERMIT POLITICAL
PARTY AGENTS TO JOIN THE PRESIDING ELECTION OFFICIAL IN
CHECKING FOR INDELIBLE INK ON THE VOTER'S HANDS -- TO
ENSURE THEY HAVE NOT ALREADY CAST A BALLOT -- AND TO
OBSERVE AT CLOSE-RANGE THE SEARCH FOR THE VOTER'S NAME ON
THE REGISTER. (NOTE: IN THE PAST, PARTY AGENTS HAVE HAD TO
STAND ACROSS THE ROOM AS LONG-DISTANCE SPECTATORS. END
NOTE.) MUDENGE SAID THE PRESIDING OFFICIAL, A POLICE
OFFICER, AND A REPRESENTATIVE OF THE REGISTRAR-GENERAL'S
OFFICE WOULD ENTER THE BOOTH WITH BLIND OR OTHERWISE
INCAPACITATED VOTERS TO HELP THEM MARK THE BALLOT FOR THE
CANDIDATE OF THEIR CHOICE. KANSTEINER ASKED WHETHER
MUDENGE WAS CONCERNED THAT THE THREE PEOPLE HELPING SUCH
INDIVIDUALS TO VOTE ARE CIVIL SERVANTS WHO DEPEND ON
GOVERNMENT FOR THEIR LIVELIHOODS. "NO, MY FRIEND," MUDENGE
REPLIED, "MOST CIVIL SERVANTS ARE MDC SUPPORTERS WHO WILL
WORK TO ENSURE AN OPPOSITION VICTORY." HE THEN TURNED TO
THE FOUR NOTETAKERS ON EITHER SIDE OF HIM AND SAID, "I
DON'T KNOW FOR SURE, BUT I SUSPECT THAT THESE MEMBERS OF MY
STAFF PROBABLY WILL VOTE FOR THE MDC." IT WOULD BE HARD TO
SELL THAT ARGUMENT TO THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY,
KANSTEINER WARNED.
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12. (C) MUDENGE CLAIMED THAT THE ACCESS TO INFORMATION AND
PROTECTION OF PRIVACY BILL WAS MODELED CLOSELY ON SIMILAR
LEGISLATION IN SOUTH AFRICA AND THE UNITED KINGDOM. TAKING
THE WORST OF TWO PIECES OF LEGISLATION IS NOT NECESSARILY
THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION, KANSTEINER REMARKED. THE
FOREIGN MINISTER SAID THE PRESS SEEMED MOST WORRIED BY THE
PROPOSED ESTABLISHMENT OF A MEDIA ETHICS COMMISSION, WHICH
WILL ENSURE THAT WHAT JOURNALISTS WRITE IS TRUTHFUL.
STRAIGHT-FACED, THE ASSISTANT SECRETARY SAID HE WAS WORRIED
ABOUT THE DRAFT LAW'S IMPACT ON THE (GOVERNMENT-CONTROLLED)
"THE HERALD," SINCE POLITICAL PARTIES WON'T BE PERMITTED TO
RUN NEWSPAPERS AND "THE HERALD" IS AN INSTRUMENT OF ZANU-
PF. "THE HERALD" IS PART OF THE PUBLIC MEDIA, MUDENGE
RETORTED -- "WE DON'T RUN NEWSPAPERS." HE DISMISSED
CONCERNS ABOUT MEDIA FREEDOM, SAYING ZANU-PF REGULARLY GETS
"SLAUGHTERED" BY THE INDEPENDENT PRESS. "THESE PEOPLE HAVE
THE FREEDOM TO SAY WHATEVER THEY WANT." KANSTEINER
EXPRESSED CONCERN THAT JOHANNESBURG-BASED CORRESPONDENTS
FROM THE NEW YORK TIMES AND THE WASHINGTON POST WERE
RECENTLY DENIED ZIMBABWEAN VISAS. MUDENGE SAID HE WAS
UNFAMILIAR WITH THEIR CASES.

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AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
AMEMBASSY OSLO
AMEMBASSY CANBERRA
AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM
AMEMBASSY KINGSTON
AMEMBASSY ABUJA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 04 OF 06 HARARE 003690

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER
LONDON FOR GURNEY
PARIS FOR NEARY
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER

E.O. 12958: DECL. 12/12/11
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PAGE 02 HARARE 03690 04 OF 06 121709Z
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SUBJECT: A/S KANSTEINER DELIVERS TOUGH MESSAGE TO
ZIMBABWEAN OFFICIALS


13. (C) MAKONI SUGGESTED THAT COMPLAINTS ABOUT THE
ELECTORAL ACT AMENDMENTS ARE UNFORTUNATE, AS THE GOZ IS
TRYING TO STRENGTHEN THE ESC BY GIVING IT MORE STATUTORY
AUTHORITY AND MORE RESOURCES, SO THAT IT CAN ENSURE THE
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IS BEYOND REPROACH. HE ASKED WHY THE
ESC WAS NOT CONSIDERED INDEPENDENT, AND THE AMBASSADOR
RESPONDED THAT THERE IS NO OPPORTUNITY FOR POLITICAL
PARTIES TO HAVE INPUT. MAKONI SAID HE DID NOT WANT TO
DISMISS USG CONCERNS, BUT HE THOUGHT THAT LACK OF TRUST AND
CONFIDENCE IN THE SYSTEM WERE THE REAL PROBLEM, NOT
NECESSARILY THE SUBSTANCE OF THE DRAFT LEGISLATION. HE
THOUGHT IT MIGHT BE A GOOD IDEA IF GOVERNMENT SAT DOWN WITH
KEY STAKEHOLDERS TO WALK THROUGH THESE ISSUES. PERHAPS, AS
A STARTING POINT, MNANGAGWA -- AS THE RULING PARTY'S
SECRETARY FOR ADMINISTRATION -- AND MDC SECRETARY-GENERAL

SIPDIS
WELSHMAN NCUBE COULD REACH AGREEMENT ON HOW THE TWO PARTIES
CAN COMPETE FAIRLY. THE AMBASSADOR SUGGESTED THAT ONE WAY
TO ADDRESS THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE WOULD BE TO ALLOW
REPRESENTATIVES OF BOTH MAJOR POLITICAL PARTIES TO SIT ON
THE ESC.

SADC ELECTORAL NORMS AND STANDARDS
--------------


14. (C) KANSTEINER TOLD HIS INTERLOCUTORS THE USG WOULD
USE THE ELECTORAL NORMS AND STANDARDS ENDORSED IN MARCH
2001 BY THE SADC PARLIAMENTARY FORUM -- IN A GATHERING
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ATTENDED BY MNANGAGWA -- AS ITS BENCHMARKS FOR ASSESSING
THE ELECTORAL PROCESS. BALANCED ACCESS TO THE MEDIA FOR
ALL POLITICAL PARTIES WAS ONE IMPORTANT POINT ADDRESSED IN
THE SADC-PF DOCUMENT, AND AN ISSUE WE AND OTHERS IN THE
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY WILL WATCH CLOSELY AS AN INDICATION
OF THE FAIRNESS OF THE PROCESS. YES, MNANGAGWA SAID, HE
HAD ATTENDED THAT MEETING BUT WAS NOT SURE WHERE THE GOZ
STOOD ON THOSE NORMS AND STANDARDS. MNANGAGWA DECLARED
THAT, AFTER THE ELECTION DATES ARE ANNOUNCED, POLITICAL
PARTIES WILL BE ALLOCATED FREE RADIO AND TELEVISION TIME
ACCORDING TO THE PERCENTAGE OF SEATS THEY HOLD IN
PARLIAMENT. ANY PARTY THAT WANTS ADDITIONAL TIME CAN
PURCHASE IT.


15. (C) MUDENGE WAS NOT INTERESTED IN DISCUSSING THE SADC-
PF'S ELECTORAL NORMS. "PLEASE LEAVE OUT OUR COMMITMENTS TO
OUR SADC FRIENDS," HE SAID POINTEDLY. "THAT'S AN INTERNAL
DOCUMENT. WE HAVE WAYS OF HELPING EACH OTHER BECAUSE WE
WANT TO GROW AS A REGION." KANSTEINER AGREED WITH
MUDENGE'S LATTER POINT, SAYING THAT WAS PART OF THE REASON
PRESIDENT MBEKI SEEMED SO CONCERNED ABOUT EVENTS IN
ZIMBABWE. "LEAVE MBEKI," MUDENGE ASSERTED. "I SPEAK TO
HIS MINISTER REGULARLY BUT, NOW, I WANT TO HEAR YOUR
CONCERNS." "OUR CONCERNS ARE THEIR CONCERNS," KANSTEINER
REPLIED. THE FOREIGN MINISTER SAID SOUTH AFRICA IS
"TOTALLY OPPOSED" TO THE SANCTIONS THE UNITED STATES HAD
PLACED ON ZIMBABWE, WHICH HURTS ZIMBABWEANS AND DOES NOT
HELP OUR BILATERAL DIALOGUE. KANSTEINER REITERATED THAT
THE USG HAS NOT IMPOSED SANCTIONS ON ZIMBABWE. ZDERA
RECOMMENDS IMPOSITION OF RESTRICTIONS ON THE RULING ELITE,
WHICH MUST BE HELD ACCOUNTABLE FOR THEIR FAILURE TO ADDRESS
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THE CONCERNS OF THE ZIMBABWEAN PEOPLE. "WE HAVE NOT
FAILED," MUDENGE INSISTED, BLAMING THE COUNTRY'S ECONOMIC
DIFFICULTIES ON FLUCTUATIONS IN WORLD COMMODITY PRICES.
"THAT'S WHAT'S KILLING US," HE SAID. KANSTEINER REPLIED
THAT HIS OWN MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS WOULD BE DIFFERENT, AND
MAINTAINED THAT ZIMBABWE'S ECONOMIC DECLINE HAS BEEN CAUSED
PRIMARILY BY GOVERNMENT MISMANAGEMENT.

DRC
---


16. (C) KANSTEINER ATTRIBUTED PART OF ZIMBABWE'S ECONOMIC
DECLINE TO THE GOVERNMENT'S INVOLVEMENT IN THE DRC. "YOUR
PEOPLE HAVE PAID A HIGH PRICE FOR THAT MILITARY
INVOLVEMENT," KANSTEINER SAID, THROUGH WHICH THE GOZ HAD
ESSENTIALLY PLACED SANCTIONS ON ITS OWN PEOPLE. MUDENGE
CONTENDED THAT THE GOZ HAD ENTERED THE CONFLICT IN THE DRC
AS A WAY TO THANK AFRICA FOR HELPING ZIMBABWEANS DURING
THEIR LIBERATION STRUGGLE. KANSTEINER SAID THE GOZ NEEDED
TO DO A BETTER JOB OF EXPLAINING THE REASONS FOR ITS DRC
INVOLVEMENT TO THE ZIMBABWEAN PEOPLE. IF ZIMBABWEAN
TROOPS WITHDRAW, MUDENGE REPLIED, THEN THE GOVERNMENT WOULD
COLLAPSE. "THEN WHAT WOULD OUR COMMITMENT THERE HAVE

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CONFIDENTIAL PTQ7931

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O 121555Z DEC 01
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0520
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
AMEMBASSY OSLO
AMEMBASSY CANBERRA
AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM
AMEMBASSY KINGSTON
AMEMBASSY ABUJA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 05 OF 06 HARARE 003690

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER
LONDON FOR GURNEY
PARIS FOR NEARY
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER

E.O. 12958: DECL. 12/12/11
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TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM PINR ZI
SUBJECT: A/S KANSTEINER DELIVERS TOUGH MESSAGE TO
ZIMBABWEAN OFFICIALS

ACCOMPLISHED?" HE REMINDED KANSTEINER THAT ZIMBABWE WAS IN
DRC AT THE REQUEST OF THE KINSHASA GOVERNMENT AND WOULD
WITHDRAW AS SOON AS KINSHASA ASKED THEM TO, "LUSAKA OR NO
LUSAKA."


17. (C) MUDENGE SAID THAT, ALTHOUGH WE MAY HAVE OUR
DIFFERENCES ON DOMESTIC DEVELOPMENTS IN ZIMBABWE, THE GOZ
WANTS VERY MUCH TO WORK WITH THE UNITED STATES TO ENSURE
STABILITY IN THE DRC. THE GOZ WANTED THE USG INVOLVED "IN
A BIG WAY," AS IT WAS THE ONLY COUNTRY THAT CAN MAKE A REAL
DIFFERENCE THERE. HE SAID THE GOZ REGULARLY INCORPORATES
OUR NON-PAPERS AND OTHER INFORMATION WE SHARE INTO THEIR
THINKING, AND SAID HE WAS AVAILABLE ANY TIME TO EXCHANGE
IDEAS ON THE WAY FORWARD. KANSTEINER REPORTED THAT
PRESIDENT BUSH HAD HAD A GOOD MEETING IN NEW YORK WITH
PRESIDENT KABILA, AND HAD ENCOURAGED HIM TO PRESS FORWARD
ON THE INTERNAL DIALOGUE. MUDENGE SAID HE WAS DISAPPOINTED
TO HEAR THAT PRESIDENT MASIRE DID NOT HAVE SUFFICIENT
RESOURCES, AND INDICATED THAT A SADC MEETING MIGHT BE
CALLED TO ADDRESS THIS ISSUE. KANSTEINER SAID THE USG HAS
GIVEN HIM SOME RESOURCES AND HE UNDERSTOOD THAT THE SOUTH
AFRICANS MAY HELP OUT AS WELL. "LET'S NOT DUMP THIS IN THE
LAP OF THE SOUTH AFRICANS," MUDENGE DECLARED. IF THE UN
SECURITY COUNCIL CANNOT COME UP WITH $6 MILLION FOR MASIRE,
THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY IS SHOWING A REAL LACK OF
COMMITMENT. THAT'S WHY THE UNITED STATES WOULD HELP,
REGARDLESS OF WHAT THE UNSC DOES, KANSTEINER SAID. MUDENGE
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REPORTED THAT THE GOZ IS TRYING TO IMPROVE RELATIONS WITH
RWANDA AND HAS HAD A NUMBER OF MEETINGS WITH JEAN-PIERRE
BEMBA. ASKED HIS IMPRESSIONS OF BEMBA, MUDENGE CHUCKLED
AND SAID HE IS A "YOUNG MAN WHO KNOWS WHAT HE WANTS."

THE BRITS ARE AGAINST US
--------------


18. (C) MUDENGE CRITICIZED THE GOZ'S FAVORITE WHIPPING
BOY, THE BRITISH, SAYING THE UK HAS "DESTABILIZED THE
LANDSCAPE" BY FUNDING THE OPPOSITION MDC. BY BETTING ON
OUR ENEMIES, THEY HAVE MADE THEMSELVES THE GOZ'S ENEMIES.
KANSTEINER EMPHASIZED THAT WE COULD NOT CARE LESS WHO WINS
THE ELECTION. WE DO CARE HOW THE GAME IS PLAYED, HOWEVER,
AND HOW THE TRANSITION IS MANAGED. THERE WON'T BE A
TRANSITION, MUDENGE REPLIED, BECAUSE ZANU-PF WILL WIN THE
ELECTION.

GLOOMY ECONOMIC PICTURE
--------------


19. (C) MAKONI PRESENTED A GLOOMY PICTURE OF ZIMBABWE'S
MACROECONOMIC SITUATION. HE EXPECTED A SIGNIFICANT DECLINE
IN PLANTING OF KEY CROPS: THE NUMBER OF HECTARES OF TOBACCO
(ZIMBABWE'S PRIMARY FOREIGN EXCHANGE EARNER) PLANTED IS
DOWN 25 PERCENT OVER LAST YEAR, WHILE MAIZE PLANTINGS IN
COMMERCIAL FARMING AREAS ARE DOWN 40 PERCENT. HE HAD HOPED
THE SHORTFALL IN MAIZE PLANTINGS WOULD BE MADE UP IN
COMMUNAL AND RESETTLEMENT AREAS, BUT HE ACKNOWLEDGED THAT
THIS WAS STILL AN OPEN QUESTION. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT
MAIZE PRODUCTION WOULD FALL SIGNIFICANTLY SHORT OF THE
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ANNUAL CONSUMPTION REQUIREMENT OF 2.2 MILLION TONS. THE
IMPOSITION OF PRICE CONTROLS HAD NOT HELPED MATTERS, MAKONI
SAID, AS BOTH COMMERCIAL AND SMALL-SCALE MAIZE FARMERS ARE
LIKELY HOLDING ONTO THEIR PRODUCT UNTIL THE PRICE IS RIGHT.


20. (C) THE FINANCE MINISTER SAID HE WAS WORRIED ABOUT THE
ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE FAST TRACK EFFORT, AND HAD URGED HIS
COLLEAGUES TO SHOW FLEXIBILITY IN IMPLEMENTING IT. GOZ
RHETORIC NOTWITHSTANDING, ONE COULD COUNT THE NUMBER OF
FARMERS WHO HAD INHERITED THEIR PROPERTIES ON ONE HAND.
MOST COMMERCIAL FARMERS HAD BOUGHT THEIR LAND SINCE
INDEPENDENCE IN 1980, AFTER OBTAINING A CERTIFICATE OF NO
INTEREST FROM THE CURRENT GOVERNMENT. MAKONI SAID HE
WANTED COMMERCIAL FARMERS TO BE ABLE TO REINVEST EARNINGS,
NOT BE FORCED INTO DESTITUTION. WHILE THERE CERTAINLY IS
AN ISSUE OF HISTORICAL INJUSTICE, THE GOZ NEEDS TO KEEP
THAT IN PERSPECTIVE. SOME IN GOVERNMENT WOULD NOT BE SO
FRANK, MAKONI ADMITTED, BUT HE WAS THE ONE DEALING WITH THE
NUTS AND BOLTS OF THE COUNTRY'S ENORMOUS ECONOMIC
DIFFICULTIES. THE MINISTER EXPRESSED SERIOUS CONCERN ABOUT
THE EXPOSURE OF ZIMBABWEAN BANKS, MOST OF WHICH HOLD
SIGNIFICANT AGRICULTURAL LOAN PORTFOLIOS.

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CONFIDENTIAL PTQ7930

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INFO LOG-00 AID-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 EB-00 EUR-00
VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 L-00 AC-01
NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00
ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 SSO-00 SS-00 STR-00 TRSE-00
T-00 USIE-00 SNIS-00 NISC-00 PMB-00 PRM-00 DRL-02
G-00 SAS-00 /007W
-------------- 4A8A36 121709Z /68
O 121555Z DEC 01
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0521
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
AMEMBASSY OSLO
AMEMBASSY CANBERRA
AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM
AMEMBASSY KINGSTON
AMEMBASSY ABUJA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 06 OF 06 HARARE 003690

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER
LONDON FOR GURNEY
PARIS FOR NEARY
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER

E.O. 12958: DECL. 12/12/11
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 03690 06 OF 06 121709Z
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM PINR ZI
SUBJECT: A/S KANSTEINER DELIVERS TOUGH MESSAGE TO
ZIMBABWEAN OFFICIALS

COMMENT
--------------


21. (C) WE BELIEVE THE THREE MINISTERS -- ALL OF WHOM SIT
ON THE RULING PARTY'S SUPREME DECISION-MAKING BODY, THE
POLITBURO -- HEARD AND ABSORBED A/S KANSTEINER'S POINTED
MESSAGE: THAT GOZ ACTIONS ALONE WOULD DETERMINE WHETHER
RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE IMPOSED ON KEY MEMBERS OF THE
LEADERSHIP AND THAT THERE WAS STILL TIME TO AVOID SUCH
MEASURES. MNANGAGWA'S QUICK ACTION ON THE CIVIL
SERVANT/MONITOR ISSUE SUGGESTS THAT THE MESSAGE GOT
THROUGH, AS WE SUSPECT HE WAS INSPIRED IN PART BY CONCERN
THAT HIS CHILDREN'S STUDIES IN TEXAS MIGHT BE ENDED
PREMATURELY. HIS REACTION INDICATES THAT THE THREAT OF
RESTRICTIONS MIGHT INDEED BE EFFECTIVE IN ELICITING SOME
POSITIVE POLICY CHANGES HERE.


22. (C) MUDENGE SEEMED LESS ARROGANT AND MORE DEFENSIVE
THAN IN PREVIOUS MEETINGS WITH US, PERHAPS REFLECTING A
REALIZATION THAT HIS NORMALLY OVER-THE-TOP AGGRESSIVE STYLE
HAS ONLY WORSENED THE GOZ'S ISOLATION, AS REGIONAL AND
INTERNATIONAL PRESSURE ON THE MUGABE REGIME GROWS MORE
INTENSE. PRESIDENT MBEKI'S RECENT CRITICISMS CLEARLY
TOUCHED A RAW NERVE IN THE GOZ LEADERSHIP, JUDGING FROM
MUDENGE'S STRONG REACTION, BECAUSE SUCH PUBLIC CANDOR FROM
ZIMBABWE'S NEIGHBORS UNDERMINES MUGABE'S ATTEMPTS TO
PORTRAY HIMSELF AS A DEFENDER OF BLACK AFRICAN INTERESTS.
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OUR MEETING WITH MAKONI WAS A BREATH OF FRESH AIR. HE IS
BRIGHT, POLITICALLY MODERATE, AND WILLING TO ENGAGE IN A
GENUINE DIALOGUE ABOUT HOW TO EXTRICATE ZIMBABWE FROM ITS
CURRENT MESS. IT IS TOO BAD HE DOESN'T HAVE MORE INFLUENCE
WITH THE OLD MAN AND OTHER RULING PARTY HARDLINERS, WHO ARE
OFTEN IRRITATED BY MAKONI'S WILLINGNESS TO CALL THINGS AS
HE SEES THEM IN PUBLIC.


23. (U) A/S KANSTEINER WAS NOT ABLE TO CLEAR THIS CABLE
BEFORE HIS DEPARTURE.

SULLIVAN

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