A/S KANSTEINER MEETS WITH CROSS SECTION OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 HARARE 003672

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY
PARIS FOR CHARLES NEARY
NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/11/11
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON PINS ZI
SUBJECT: A/S KANSTEINER MEETS WITH CROSS SECTION OF
BULAWAYO SOCIETY

REF: HARARE 3643

CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL OFFICER TODD FAULK FOR REASONS:
1.5 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: ON DECEMBER 9, A/S KANSTEINER MET WITH
A WIDE CROSS-SECTION OF BULAWAYO SOCIETY TO DISCUSS THE
RECENT POLITICAL VIOLENCE IN THAT CITY, ONGOING
GOVERNMENT OF ZIMBABWE (GOZ) ATTEMPTS TO SUBVERT THE
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, THE DETERIORATING ECONOMY AND
LOOMING FOOD SHORTAGES, PASSAGE OF THE ZIMBABWE
DEMOCRACY AND ECONOMIC RECOVERY ACT (ZDERA),AND WHAT
ROLE THE U.S. MIGHT PLAY IN HELPING ZIMBABWE OUT OF ITS
CURRENT CRISIS. OVERALL, OUR INTERLOCUTORS PAINTED
BULAWAYO, AND THE ENTIRE MATABELELAND REGION, AS AN AREA
UNDER SIEGE BY THE GOZ, AND ONE LIVING IN FEAR OF MORE
MUGABE-LED VIOLENCE AND REPRESSION. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) ON DECEMBER 9, A/S KANSTEINER AND AMBASSADOR
SULLIVAN, ALONG WITH SPECIAL ASSISTANT THOMAS WOODS AND
POLOFF (NOTETAKER),MET WITH A WIDE CROSS-SECTION OF
CIVIL SOCIETY, OPPOSITION AND LOCAL OFFICIALS IN
BULAWAYO. IN SEPARATE MEETINGS, KANSTEINER MET: SHARI
EPPEL, DIRECTOR OF AMANI TRUST/BULAWAYO, A WELL-
RESPECTED HUMAN RIGHTS ORGANIZATION; ERIC BLOCH, A
PROMINENT ECONOMIST AND COLUMNIST; MOVEMENT FOR
DEMOCRATIC CHANGE VICE-PRESIDENT GIBSON SIBANDA, MDC
SECRETARY-GENERAL WELSHMAN NCUBE, AND MDC MP FOR

SIPDIS
BULAWAYO SOUTH DAVID COLTART; HUMAN RIGHTS ACTIVIST AND
"DAILY NEWS" PART-OWNER JUDITH TODD AND MICHAEL NDUBIWA,
THE CHAIRMAN OF THE NATIONAL AIDS COUNCIL; ARCHBISHOP
PIUS NCUBE; AND BULAWAYO MAYOR JAPHET NDABENI-NCUBE.
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PAGE 03 HARARE 03672 01 OF 05 111246Z

BULAWAYO UNDER SIEGE
--------------


3. (C) NEARLY ALL THOSE A/S KANSTEINER MET WITH HAD A
TALE TO TELL RELATED TO THE POLITICAL VIOLENCE THAT
WRACKED BULAWAYO IN MID-NOVEMBER. MAYOR NDEBENI-NCUBE,
ELECTED ON THE MDC TICKET IN SEPTEMBER, RECOUNTED HIS
OWN CLOSE CALL WITH ANGRY DEMONSTRATORS ON NOVEMBER 16.
SIKHANYISO NDLOVU AND DUMISO DABENGWA -- ZANU-PF
POLITBURO MEMBERS WHOSE POLITICAL STARS ARE WANING, THE
MAYOR STATED -- STARTED THE TROUBLE BY WHIPPING UP
EMOTIONS AT A ZANU-PF YOUTH RALLY; THE MAJORITY OF THE
YOUTH WERE SHIPPED IN BY TRAIN THE NIGHT BEFORE. THE
GROUP OF SEVERAL HUNDRED THEN PROCEEDED TO TEAR THROUGH
THE STREETS, ATTACKING BYSTANDERS AND LOOTING VENDORS OF
THEIR WARES. FIFTEEN MINUTES BEFORE THEY ARRIVED AT HIS
OFFICE AT CITY HALL, HE RECEIVED A PHONE CALL FROM AN
MDC OPERATIVE WARNING OF THE IMPENDING DANGER. TAKING
HIS REVOLVER WITH HIM, HE WAS WHISKED TO A DARK OFFICE
IN A DIFFERENT PART OF THE BUILDING AND LOCKED INSIDE,
THE MAYOR SAID. WHEN THE DEMONSTATORS ARRIVED, A GROUP
OF EIGHT WAR VETERANS LED BY THEIR NATIONAL SECRETARY
FOR PROJECTS ANDREW NDLOVU, SOMEHOW GOT INSIDE CITY HALL
AND FORCED A SECURITY GUARD TO TAKE THEM TO THE MAYOR'S
OFFICE. THEY RANSACKED THE OFFICE, TORE UP PAPERS,
THREW FILES OUT THE WINDOW, AND STOLE HIS BRIEFCASE.
THEY LEFT TWO LOGS ON HIS DESK, AN APPARENT WARNING THAT
THEY WOULD BEAT HIM WITH THE CLUBS IF HE RETURNED,
NDABENI-NCUBE STATED. THE DEMONSTRATORS, ESCORTED BY
RIOT POLICE, THEN LEFT TO BURN DOWN THE MDC'S BULAWAYO
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PAGE 04 HARARE 03672 01 OF 05 111246Z
HEADQUARTERS. SINCE THAT DAY, HE HAS RECEIVED
THREATENING PHONE CALLS, AND STRANGE VEHICLES DRIVE
SLOWLY BY HIS HOME AT NIGHT. ACCORDING TO SHARI EPPEL,
THE VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION OF THE LAST FEW WEEKS IN
BULAWAYO HAS LEFT THE MDC WITHOUT ANY ADMINISTRATIVE
STRUCTURE IN THE CITY. ALTHOUGH GRASS-ROOTS EFFORTS
CONTINUE, MOST OFFICIALS HAVE FLED OR ARE IN HIDING, SHE
CLAIMED.


4. (C) THE POLITICAL VIOLENCE OF NOVEMBER 16 HAD A DEEP
IMPACT ON THE RESIDENTS OF THIS NORMALLY QUIET CITY.
THE COMMON DENOMINATOR IN NEARLY EVERY MEETING WITH A/S
KANSTEINER WAS AN EXPRESSION OF FEAR. SHARI EPPEL, A
LONG-TIME RESIDENT OF THE CITY, COMPARED THE ATMOSPHERE
TO THE TIME OF THE "GUKURAHUNDI" MASSACRES OF THE MID-
1980S. SHE COMPARED THE CASE OF A ZANU SENATOR FROM
BEITBRIDGE, MURDERED IN 1984 BY HIS OWN PARTY, TO THE
RECENT CASE OF CAIN NKALA, THE WAR VETERANS LEADER MOST
ZIMBABWEANS BELIEVE WAS KILLED BY STATE AGENTS. SHE
DESCRIBED PRESIDENT MUGABE'S NATIONAL HERO SPEECH AT
NKALA'S FUNERAL AS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THAT OF THE
SENATOR'S IN 1984. THE NDEBELE ARE VERY AFRAID THAT
MUGABE IS SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER "GUKURAHUNDI"-
TYPE POGROM, EPPEL STATED. HER ORGANIZATION, AMANI

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ITC-01 L-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OMB-01 OPIC-01
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-------------- 49CDD0 111248Z /48
O 110949Z DEC 01
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0496
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 05 HARARE 003672

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY
PARIS FOR CHARLES NEARY
NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/11/11
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON PINS ZI
SUBJECT: A/S KANSTEINER MEETS WITH CROSS SECTION OF
BULAWAYO SOCIETY

TRUST/BULAWAYO, IS CURRENTLY FOCUSED ON EXHUMING THE
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PAGE 02 HARARE 03672 02 OF 05 111247Z
BODIES OF THE THOUSANDS KILLED BY FIFTH BRIGADE TROOPS
IN THE 1980S AND TRAINING AN ARGENTINE GROUP CURRENTLY
IN COUNTRY IN FORENSICS. OF THE 4,000 SO FAR EXHUMED
FROM MASS GRAVES AND PROPERLY REBURIED, NEARLY ALL WERE
SHOT AT CLOSE RANGE. SHE CONSERVATIVELY ESTIMATES THAT
10,000 CIVILIANS DIED IN THE GOVERNMENT'S PACIFICATION
CAMPAIGN, AND THE NUMBER COULD BE AS HIGH AS 20,000.
EPPEL SAID THE EXHUMATION PROGRAM IS DESIGNED TO SEEK
JUSTICE FOR THE VICTIMS OF THE ATROCITIES, AND THAT
THERE CAN BE NO RECONCILIATION PROCESS WITHOUT DIRECT
PERSONAL ACCOUNTABILITY FOR THOSE RESPONSIBLE, I.E.,
SENIOR GOZ OFFICIALS.


5. (C) BOTH EPPEL AND MDC MP DAVID COLTART APPEALED TO
A/S KANSTEINER TO URGENTLY PRESS THE GOZ TO RELEASE MDC
TREASURER FLETCHER DULINI-NCUBE, WHO WAS DENIED BAIL IN
A DECEMBER 7 HIGH COURT RULING. DULINI-NCUBE, WHO IS 61
AND SUFFERS FROM DIABETES AND HYPERTENSION, HAS BEEN IN
JAIL FOR THREE WEEKS ON CHARGES OF CONSPIRACY TO MURDER
IN THE CAIN NKALA CASE. COLTART SAID THE CHARGES ARE A
COMPLETE FABRICATION AND ARE BASED SOLELY ON THE
CONFESSIONS OF TWO YOUNG MEN, WHO LATER RECANTED THEIR
STORIES AS COERCED UNDER TORTURE. DULINI-NCUBE'S HEALTH
IS DECLINING RAPIDLY, AND HE HAS ALREADY LOST SIGHT IN
ONE EYE. THE MDC IS GOING TO FILE AN APPEAL TO THE
SUPREME COURT ON DECEMBER 10, BUT IT MAY NOT HEAR THE
CASE BEFORE ITS CHRISTMAS ADJOURNMENT. KANSTEINER SAID
WE WOULD MAKE THE APPEAL BASED ON HUMANITARIAN GROUNDS
TO GOZ OFFICIALS HE PLANS TO MEET IN HARARE. (NOTE: THE
ASSISTANT SECRETARY LATER RAISED DULINI-NCUBE'S CASE
WITH SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT -- AND ZANU-PF SECRETARY OF
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PAGE 03 HARARE 03672 02 OF 05 111247Z
ADMINISTRATION -- EMMERSON MNANGAGWA. THAT CONVERSATION
IS REPORTED SEPTEL. END NOTE.)

MDC URGING RESTRAINT IN ITS RESPONSE
--------------


6. (C) MDC VICE-PRESIDENT GIBSON SIBANDA SAID THE GOZ
IS DOING ITS UTMOST TO PAINT THE OPPOSITION PARTY AS
VIOLENT. BLAMING IT FOR THE CAIN NKALA MURDER AND
ARRESTING DOZENS OF MDC OFFICIALS WAS JUST ONE STEP.
THE GOZ ALSO ACCUSES THE MDC OF OPERATING MILITARY
TRAINING CAMPS IN BOTSWANA, ZAMBIA AND MOZAMBIQUE, WHICH
SIBANDA SUGGESTED IS JUST UTTER NONSENSE AND A SIGN OF
GROWING DESPERATION ON THE PART OF MUGABE. ASKED
WHETHER THE MDC HAS EVER PROVIDED ANY KIND OF MILITARY
TRAINING TO ITS MEMBERS, COLTART REPLIED THAT IT HAS
ONLY TRAINED ABOUT 10 OR 12 BODYGUARDS IN DEFENSIVE
TACTICS TO PROTECT THE PARTY LEADERSHIP. SIBANDA ADDED
THAT IT WOULD BE SUICIDAL FOR THE MDC TO TRY TO FIGHT
THE GOZ IN AN ARMED STRUGGLE. MAYOR NDABENI-NCUBE TOLD
THE ASSISTANT SECRETARY THAT MDC YOUTH WHO ORGANIZE
THEMSELVES TO DEFEND AGAINST ZANU-PF BRUTES AND WAR
VETS, SUCH AS THOSE THAT BURNED SIKHANYISO NDLOVU'S
COLLEGE IN BULAWAYO, ARE TOLD TO AVOID ARMED POLICE AND
SOLDIERS. KANSTEINER ASKED THE MAYOR WHETHER THE MDC
STILL HAS CONTROL OF THE YOUTH. THE MAYOR REPLIED THAT
IT IS DIFFICULT TO CONTROL THEM DESPITE THE ORGANIZED
STRUCTURES IN PLACE. THE YOUTH DON'T INSTIGATE
VIOLENCE, BUT ACT PRIMARILY IN DEFENSE, BY PATROLLING
NEIGHBORHOODS AT NIGHT, FOR EXAMPLE. HOWEVER, IF THE
MDC YOUTH HAD NOT ACTED AGAINST THE ZANU-PF MOBS ON
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PAGE 04 HARARE 03672 02 OF 05 111247Z
NOVEMBER 16, HE IS CERTAIN MUCH MORE DAMAGE WOULD HAVE
BEFALLEN THE CITY, THE MAYOR STATED.

ELECTORAL IMPEDIMENTS INCREASING FOR MDC
--------------


7. (C) A/S KANSTEINER ASKED THE MDC OFFICIALS IF THE
MDC INTENDS TO PARTICIPATE IN THE EARLY 2002
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, EVEN IF THE ELECTORAL FIELD IS
TILTED AGAINST THEM. VICE-PRESIDENT SIBANDA SAID THE
MDC NATIONAL EXECUTIVE IS GOING TO MEET TO CONSIDER THE
ISSUE, BUT IN ALL LIKELIHOOD, THE PARTY WOULD
PARTICIPATE. "THE MDC IS THE LAST HOPE FOR MANY
PEOPLE," HE OPINED, "AND WE WOULD BE LYNCHED IF MORGAN
WITHDREW FROM THE RACE." NONETHELESS, WE RECOGNIZE THAT
"THE ODDS ARE MOUNTING AGAINST US." NEW PROPOSED
LEGISLATION, MAINLY AMENDMENTS TO THE ELECTORAL ACT, THE
PUBLIC ORDER AND SECURITY BILL, AND THE ACCESS TO
INFORMATION BILL (REFTEL) WILL HINDER THE MDC'S CAMPAIGN
EFFORT. THE ELECTORAL ACT AMENDMENTS, FOR EXAMPLE,
WOULD PROHIBIT THE PUTTING UP OF CAMPAIGN POSTERS,
WELSHMAN NCUBE POINTED OUT. THE VOTER ROLLS ARE ALSO
BEING DELIBERATELY MANIPULATED IN MATABELELAND. THE
NDEBELE NAMES OF NEW VOTER REGISTRANTS ARE BEING

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ITC-01 L-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OMB-01 OPIC-01
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-------------- 49CDE7 111248Z /48
O 110949Z DEC 01
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0497
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 05 HARARE 003672

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY
PARIS FOR CHARLES NEARY
NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/11/11
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON PINS ZI
SUBJECT: A/S KANSTEINER MEETS WITH CROSS SECTION OF
BULAWAYO SOCIETY

DELIBERATELY MISSPELLED OR CHANGED INTO SHONA
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PAGE 02 HARARE 03672 03 OF 05 111248Z
EQUIVALENTS WITHOUT THE REGISTRANT'S KNOWLEDGE, AND
DIGITS ARE BEING DROPPED FROM NATIONAL ID NUMBERS, WHICH
WILL MAKE IT NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE FOR THE VOTERS'
REGISTRATION TO BE LOCATED WHEN THEY GO TO VOTE,
ACCORDING TO NCUBE. COLTART ADDED THAT STUDENTS
REGISTERING IN THE CITIES ARE BEING TURNED AWAY IN
DROVES BECAUSE OF A LACK OF NUMEROUS DOCUMENTS PROVING
RESIDENCY. ABOUT 600,000 POTENTIAL FIRST-TIME VOTERS
COULD BE DISENFRANCHISED FROM THE VOTE AS RESULT, HE
SAID. THE MDC PLANS TO FILE A CASE WITH THE SUPREME
COURT ON DECEMBER 10 TO CHALLENGE THE GOZ'S INTENTION TO
REQUIRE ALL VOTERS TO VOTE IN THEIR CONSTITUENCY; THE
CONSTITUTION PROVIDES FOR A COMMON VOTER ROLL THAT
SHOULD PERMIT A VOTER TO CAST A BALLOT ANYWHERE IN THE
COUNTRY, NCUBE STATED.


8. (C) MAYOR NDABENI-NCUBE WAS EQUIVOCAL ABOUT THE
MDC'S CHANCES IN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, SAYING THAT
THE "ARITHMETIC" WAS ON THE MDC'S SIDE, BUT THE GOZ'S
MANIPULATION OF THE VOTERS' ROLL COULD TIP THE BALANCE
IN MUGABE'S FAVOR. MATABELELAND, MANICALAND, AND THE
URBAN AREAS ARE WRITE-OFFS FOR ZANU-PF AS THE MDC WILL
WIN 90 PERCENT OF THESE AREAS, HE PREDICTED. TSVANGIRAI
WILL WIN 70 PERCENT OF MIDLANDS, AND 50 PERCENT OF
MASVINGO, WHERE HE WILL GET A BOOST FROM THE NON-
CAMPAIGNING OF THE ZVOBGO ZANU-PF FACTION. MASHONALAND
WILL GARNER FEWER THAN 40 PERCENT OF THE VOTES FOR THE
OPPOSITION LEADER. THESE NUMBERS WOULD PUT TSVANGIRAI
IN THE WIN COLUMN WERE IT NOT FOR THE GOZ'S TILTING OF
THE ELECTORAL PROCESS IN MUGABE'S FAVOR, THE MAYOR
OFFERED.
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PAGE 03 HARARE 03672 03 OF 05 111248Z

ECONOMY SHRINKS AS FOOD SHORTAGES GROW
--------------


9. (C) ONE OF THE KEY FACTORS IN MUGABE'S DECLINING
POPULARITY HAS BEEN THE RAPIDLY DETERIORATING ECONOMY
AND THE COUNTRY'S FOOD SECURITY ALONG WITH IT, ACCORDING
TO ERIC BLOCH, A WIDELY RESPECTED ECONOMIST AND
COLUMNIST BASED IN BULAWAYO. A LOT OF FARMERS ARE
WAITING TO SEE IF THE GOZ CARRIES OUT ITS STATED
INTENTION TO TAKE OVER NEARLY ALL THE COUNTRY'S
COMMERCIAL FARMS. THE REAPING OF TOBACCO IS DUE TO
BEGIN IN MID-DECEMBER, BUT FARMERS MAY DECIDE NOT TO IF
THERE IS NO EXPECTATION OF KEEPING THEIR FARMS, WHICH
WILL HAVE MAJOR IMPLICATIONS FOR THE COUNTRY'S FOREX
FUTURE. THERE IS CURRENTLY ONLY US$30 MILLION PER MONTH
COMING INTO ZIMBABWE, AND NO MORE THAN US$50 TO 60
MILLION PER MONTH MAY BE EXPECTED IN APRIL WHEN THE
TOBACCO SALES BEGIN (US$100 MILLION/MONTH IS NORMAL).


10. (C) BLOCH SAID IN JUNE HE ACCOMPANIED FINANCE
MINISTER SIMBA MAKONI TO AN INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE
WHERE MAKONI STATED THAT LITTLE CAN BE DONE TO SAVE THE
ZIMBABWEAN ECONOMY UNLESS THREE THINGS HAPPEN: 1) LAW
AND ORDER IS RESTORED, I.E. SQUATTERS ARE REMOVED FROM
FARMS, 2) THE GOZ "STOPS CHANGING ITS POLICIES AS OFTEN
AS WE CHANGE OUR UNDERWEAR," AND 3) EVERY FARMER IS ABLE
TO PLANT AND HARVEST HIS CROP IN SECURITY. ABSENT THAT,
MAKONI IS SPENDING MONEY HE DOES NOT HAVE TO KEEP THE
ECONOMY AFLOAT. GOZ DEBT HAS SOARED TO BETWEEN 15 AND
19 PERCENT OF GDP. TO RAISE MORE CAPITAL, HE WILL HAVE
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PAGE 04 HARARE 03672 03 OF 05 111248Z
TO GO AFTER INSURANCE COMPANIES AND PENSION FUNDS BY
INCREASING THEIR AMOUNT OF PROSCRIBED ASSETS.
CURRENTLY, 45 PERCENT OF THEIR ASSETS ARE REQUIRED TO BE
IN GOVERNMENT T-BILLS.


11. (C) ON THE FOOD SECURITY FRONT, ZIMBABWE WILL
REQUIRE 500 MILLION TONS OF MAIZE BETWEEN NOW AND EARLY
2003 TO COVER THE PREDICTED SHORTFALLS OF DOMESTIC
PRODUCTION, BLOCH PREDICTED; PLANTINGS NOW IN THE
COMMERCIAL AREAS ARE ONLY 60 PERCENT OF WHAT THEY WERE
LAST YEAR. NEXT YEAR, THERE WILL BE A GAP IN MAIZE
AVAILABILITY BETWEEN MARCH AND MAY. WHOEVER WINS THE
ELECTION IS GOING TO HAVE A TERRIBLE PROBLEM ON HIS
HANDS, BLOCH OPINED. IT'S NOT TOO LATE FOR MUGABE TO
TURN THINGS AROUND IF HE STARTS SAYING, AND DOING, THE
RIGHT THINGS NOW, THE ECONOMIST SUGGESTED. PRINCIPALLY,
HE MUST: 1) GO BACK TO A MARKET ECONOMY BY ABANDONING
PRICE AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE CONTROLS, 2) CLEAR OUT THE
FARM SQUATTERS AND ARREST THE PERPETRATORS OF VIOLENCE,
AND 3) CUT BACK ON GOVERNMENT SPENDING -- A CUTBACK IN
THE BUDGET OF THE PRESIDENT'S OFFICE WOULD BE A SIGN OF
COMMITMENT. IF THESE THINGS HAPPENED, THE ZIMBABWEAN
ECONOMY COULD START TO TURN AROUND FAIRLY QUICKLY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE MANUFACTURING EXPORT SECTOR. SOME

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EXIM-01 E-00 VC-00 FRB-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00
ITC-01 L-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OMB-01 OPIC-01
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SS-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 T-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DRL-02
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-------------- 49CF50 111257Z /48
O 110949Z DEC 01
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0498
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 04 OF 05 HARARE 003672

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY
PARIS FOR CHARLES NEARY
NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/11/11
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON PINS ZI
SUBJECT: A/S KANSTEINER MEETS WITH CROSS SECTION OF
BULAWAYO SOCIETY

FIRMS COULD START EXPORTING AGAIN IN AS LITTLE AS A FEW
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PAGE 02 HARARE 03672 04 OF 05 111257Z
WEEKS. (COMMENT: ALTHOUGH THE MANUFACTURING EXPORT
SECTOR MAY TURN AROUND QUICKLY, THE MAINSTAY OF THE
ZIMBABWEAN ECONOMY REMAINS COMMERCIAL AGRICULTURE, AND
IT WILL LIKELY TAKE YEARS FOR IT TO RECOVER. END
COMMENT.)

ARCHBISHOP: DO NOT EXPECT A REVOLUTION
--------------


12. (C) THE PEOPLE OF ZIMBABWE, AND MATABELELAND IN
PARTICULAR, ARE SO SCARED, THEY WILL NOT RISE UP AGAINST
THE GOVERNMENT, EVEN IF MUGABE WINS RE-ELECTION,
ARCHBISHOP PIUS NCUBE TOLD THE ASSISTANT SECRETARY.
(NOTE: NCUBE, WHO HIMSELF LEFT ZIMBABWE LAST YEAR
BECAUSE OF DEATH THREATS, STOOD WITH THE A/S DELEGATION
AS IT ARRIVED AND BRIEFLY KEPT THEM OUTSIDE HIS OFFICE
BUILDING, APPARENTLY SO THAT SUSPECTED CIO AGENTS IN THE
CATHEDRAL COMPOUND COULD SEE THAT HE WAS MEETING WITH
AMERICAN OFFICIALS. END NOTE.) THE ARCHBISHOP
PREDICTED THAT THE VIOLENCE WILL INTENSIFY BEFORE THE
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, WHICH WILL NOT BE FREE AND FAIR.
EVEN THOUGH EDUCATED AND UNEDUCATED ZIMBABWEANS ALIKE
ARE VERY UNHAPPY, THEY WILL NOT RISE UP AGAINST THE GOZ
UNLESS THEY ARE LED. MDC PRESIDENT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI IS
TOO WEAK TO LEAD THEM, AS HE HIMSELF IS INTIMIDATED BY
THE GOZ, NCUBE OPINED. NCUBE WOULD BE EQUALLY OPPOSED
TO THE MDC IF IT PROVED TO BE JUST AS CORRUPT AS ZANU-
PF, HE ADDED. WHEN ASKED IF THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
MUGABE TO BACK OUT OF THE ELECTION, THE ARCHBISHOP SAID
"NO;" ONCE HIS PARTY WINS RE-ELECTION, HOWEVER, MUGABE
WILL HAND OVER POWER TO ANOTHER PARTY STALWART.
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PAGE 03 HARARE 03672 04 OF 05 111257Z

ZIMBABWE DEMOCRACY ACT
--------------


13. (C) MANY OF OUR INTERLOCUTORS EXPRESSED THANKS TO
A/S KANSTEINER AND THE USG FOR PASSING THE ZIMBABWE
DEMOCRACY AND ECONOMIC RECOVERY ACT (ZDERA). IN AN OPEN
DISCUSSION WITH HUMAN RIGHTS ACTIVIST JUDITH TODD AND
AIDS NATIONAL COUNCIL CHAIRMAN MIKE NDUBIWA (A LONG-TIME
ZANU-PF MEMBER WHO WAS AS ANTI-ZANU AS ANYONE WE MET),
KANSTEINER EXPLAINED THE PROVISIONS OF THE ZDERA AND
THAT IT IS UP TO THE ADMINISTRATION TO IMPLEMENT ANY
SANCTIONS. TODD ARGUED THAT IT WOULD BE IMPORTANT TO
THREATEN SANCTIONS JUST BEFORE THE ZANU-PF CONFERENCE
BEGINS DECEMBER 14 AND BEFORE THE AMENDMENTS TO THE
ELECTORAL ACT ARE PASSED IN PARLIAMENT (TODD REPORTED
THAT THE BILL IS DUE TO BE INTRODUCED DECEMBER 18).
AFTER THESE DATES, SHE SAID, IT WOULD BE TOO LATE TO
INFLUENCE ANY POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE GOZ'S COURSE OF
ACTION. AMBASSADOR SULLIVAN POINTED OUT THAT THERE IS
AN ARGUMENT AGAINST USING THE SANCTIONS "STICK" NOW --
WE WON'T HAVE ANY OTHERS ONCE IT IS USED, AND IT COULD
FORCE MUGABE INTO A CORNER WITH NO ESCAPE ROUTES.
NDUBIWA MAINTAINED THAT "PULLING THE TRIGGER" OF
SANCTIONS SHOULD BE A PROCESS RATHER THAN AN EVENT.
CERTAINLY, THREATS OF USING SANCTIONS WOULD HAVE TO BE
MADE, BUT THEIR ULTIMATE USE SHOULD NOT BE LINKED TO ANY
ONE ACTION, SUCH AS PASSAGE OF THE ELECTORAL ACT
AMENDMENTS.

HOW CAN WE BEST HELP ZIMBABWE?
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PAGE 04 HARARE 03672 04 OF 05 111257Z
--------------


14. (C) WHEN ASKED HOW THE U.S. COULD HELP ZIMBABWE AT
THIS POINT, MDC VICE-PRESIDENT SIBANDA STATED THAT THE
MOST IMPORTANT THING WE COULD DO IS TELL PRESIDENT
MUGABE IN NO UNCERTAIN TERMS THAT WE WOULD NOT RECOGNIZE
THE ELECTION OUTCOME IF THE ELECTION WAS NOT FREE AND
FAIR. MUGABE WANTS THIS RECOGNITION MORE THAN ANYTHING,
SIBANDA SAID. USING OUR INFLUENCE WITH THE REGIONAL
STATES WOULD HELP, BUT AMONG THE SADC STATES, ONLY SOUTH
AFRICA CAN APPLY SUFFICIENT PRESSURE ON MUGABE TO CHANGE
HIS WAYS. SHARI EPPEL OF AMANI TRUST OPINED THAT
APPLYING PRESSURE TO THE SADC STATES TO TAKE A STAND
AGAINST MUGABE IS KEY TO CHANGING HIS BEHAVIOR. SIBANDA
APPEALED FOR HELP WITH MDC FINANCES, WHICH HE SAID WERE
BEING DRAINED BY GOZ ACTIONS, SUCH AS THE TORCHING OF
ITS BULAWAYO OFFICES AND LEGAL CASES. THE MDC IS
SPENDING BETWEEN ZIM$5 MILLION AND $7 MILLION (US$16,000
AND $23,000) ON LEGAL FEES; IT HAS SO FAR SPENT ZIM$1.3
MILLION (US$4,000) ON FLETCHER DULINI-NCUBE'S CASE
ALONE. THEY SAID IT WOULD HELP IF THE U.S. COULD ASSIST
IN FINDING NGOS THAT COULD PROVIDE LEGAL ASSISTANCE OR
FUNDS FOR LEGAL EXPENSES.

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PAGE 01 HARARE 03672 05 OF 05 111247Z
ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 AID-00 CIAE-00 CTME-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 EB-00
EXIM-01 E-00 VC-00 FRB-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00
ITC-01 L-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OMB-01 OPIC-01
PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 SSO-00
SS-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 T-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DRL-02
G-00 SAS-00 /008W
-------------- 49CDC1 111247Z /48
O 110949Z DEC 01
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0499
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 05 OF 05 HARARE 003672

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY
PARIS FOR CHARLES NEARY
NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/11/11
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON PINS ZI
SUBJECT: A/S KANSTEINER MEETS WITH CROSS SECTION OF
BULAWAYO SOCIETY


15. (U) THE A/S KANSTEINER DELEGATION CLEARED THIS
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PAGE 02 HARARE 03672 05 OF 05 111247Z
CABLE.

SULLIVAN

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