EXPECT HUGE VOTER TURNOUT IN ZIMBABWE,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 003558

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY
PARIS FOR CHARLES NEARY
NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/27/11
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR ZI
SUBJECT: EXPECT HUGE VOTER TURNOUT IN ZIMBABWE,
POLITICAL POLLSTER TELLS AMBASSADOR

CLASSIFIED BY POLOFF TODD C. FAULK FOR REASONS: 1.5 (B)
AND (D).


1. (C) ON NOVEMBER 26, AMBASSADOR SULLIVAN, ACCOMPANIED
BY POLOFF, MET MASIPULA SITHOLE, THE CHAIR OF THE
UNIVERSITY OF ZIMBABWE POLITICAL SCIENCE DEPARTMENT,
COLUMNIST, AND DIRECTOR OF THE HARARE-BASED MASS PUBLIC
OPINION INSTITUTE. SITHOLE REPORTED THAT HIS
ORGANIZATION IS CURRENTLY COMPILING THE RESULTS OF A
NATIONWIDE SURVEY RECENTLY CONDUCTED TO UNCOVER THE
EXTENT OF VOTER APATHY IN ZIMBABWE. SURPRISINGLY,
SITHOLE SAID THE INITIAL FINDINGS ARE POINTING TO AN 89
TO 90 PERCENT TURNOUT IN THE EARLY 2002 PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTION, WHICH WOULD BE THE SECOND HIGHEST TURNOUT
SINCE ZIMBABWE'S INDEPENDENCE. IT WOULD ALSO REPRESENT
A MAJOR TURNAROUND FROM THE PREDOMINANT ELECTORAL TREND
OF DECLINING VOTER PARTICIPATION SINCE INDEPENDENCE. TO
ILLUSTRATE, SITHOLE STATED THAT 94 PERCENT VOTED IN
1980, 84 PERCENT IN 1985, 54 PERCENT IN 1990, 54 PERCENT
IN 1995 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS, 31 PERCENT IN THE 1996
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, AND 48 PERCENT IN THE 2000
PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS.

TOO LATE FOR FREE AND FAIR ELECTION?
--------------


2. (C) SITHOLE THANKED THE AMBASSADOR FOR HIS RECENT
PUBLIC STATEMENT SAYING THAT THE U.S. WAS NOT INCLINED
TO RECOGNIZE THE RESULTS OF THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
UNLESS POLITICAL CONDITIONS IMPROVED. THIS IS A POINT
THE U.S. SHOULD BE MAKING "A LOT LOUDER," THE PROFESSOR
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PAGE 03 HARARE 03558 01 OF 02 271549Z
OPINED. MUGABE MUST BE WARNED OF DISINCENTIVES IF HE
DOES NOT HOLD A FREE AND FAIR ELECTION; HOWEVER, THERE
HAS NEVER BEEN ONE IN INDEPENDENT ZIMBABWE, SITHOLE
CONTINUED. IN 1990, WHEN FORMER ZANU-PF REFORMER EDGAR
TEKERE RAN AGAINST MUGABE, THERE WAS PLENTY OF "VIOLENCE
AND SHOOTINGS." WHEN ASKED IF HIS INSTITUTE PLANNED TO
CONDUCT A SURVEY ON PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCES, HE STATED
THE RESULTS OF ONE WOULD BE COMING OUT BY LATE JANUARY.

AN UNHAPPY EXIT AWAITS MUGABE
--------------


3. (C) PRESIDENT MUGABE IS BENT ON WINNING THE ELECTION
BY "HOOK OR CROOK," BUT WHEN THE PEOPLE TAKE TO THE
STREETS, AN "UNHAPPY EXIT" WILL BE INEVITABLE FOR
MUGABE, THE PROFESSOR PREDICTED. IF DISINCENTIVES DID
NOT CONVINCE HIM TO HOLD A FREE ELECTION, THEN AT THIS
POINT, AN EXIT PACKAGE OF INCENTIVES FOR MUGABE TO
RELINQUISH POWER WOULD BE "APPROPRIATE." THE ARMY WOULD
UNDERWRITE A SET OF ASSURANCES AND ACT AS NEGOTIATOR
WITH TSVANGIRAI, WHO UNDERSTANDS THE NECESSITY OF
LETTING MUGABE GO IN PEACE. MUGABE KNOWS HE IS
UNPOPULAR AND IS WORRIED ABOUT HIS PHYSICAL SECURITY --
OTHERWISE HE WOULD NOT BE CLINGING TO POWER SO
DESPERATELY. ASKED ABOUT MUGABE'S FINANCIAL SECURITY,
SITHOLE SAID THIS IS NOT THE PRESIDENT'S PRIMARY
CONCERN. HE ALREADY HAS MORE THAN ENOUGH MONEY FOR HIM
AND HIS FAMILY. HOWEVER, IF GIVEN THE PROPER
ASSURANCES, MUGABE WOULD LEAVE POWER, SITHOLE OPINED.

A LITTLE HELP FROM MUGABE'S FRIENDS
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PAGE 04 HARARE 03558 01 OF 02 271549Z
--------------


4. (C) AMBASSADOR THEN INQUIRED WHETHER MUGABE'S INNER
CIRCLE WOULD ACCEPT MUGABE'S DEPARTURE, AND SITHOLE SAID
THEY WOULD IF THEY WERE INCLUDED IN THE EXIT PACKAGE.
ULTRALOYALISTS SUCH AS SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT EMMERSON
MNANGAGWA -- AND PRESUMED HEIR TO THE MUGABE THRONE --
WOULD HAVE TO BE INCLUDED IN THE DEPARTURE DEAL. EVEN
THOUGH THERE ARE THOSE IN ZANU-PF WHO WILL AGAIN TRY TO
PERSUADE MUGABE TO STEP ASIDE AT THIS YEAR'S RULING
PARTY CONFERENCE, THEY WILL NOT SUCCEED. ALL THOSE
REFORMISTS WITH INFLUENCE, SUCH AS FORMER MINISTER
EDDISON ZVOBGO, HAVE BEEN PUSHED ASIDE. DEFENSE
MINISTER SYDNEY SEKERAMAYI AND FORMER DEFENSE FORCES
CHIEF SOLOMON MUJURU ARE "REASONABLE AND RATIONAL," BUT
THEY ARE NOT MEMBERS OF MUGABE'S INNER CIRCLE.
INFORMATION MINISTER JONATHAN MOYO -- WITH WHOM SITHOLE
USED TO JOG IN THE U.S. AND AT THE UNIVERSITY OF
ZIMBABWE -- COULD DIRECT TRANSITION EVENTS IN A POSITIVE
WAY IF HE WAS PROPERLY APPROACHED AND GIVEN SIMILAR EXIT
INCENTIVES, THE PROFESSOR OFFERED.

COMMENT
--------------

CONFIDENTIAL

CONFIDENTIAL PTQ5493

PAGE 01 HARARE 03558 02 OF 02 271549Z
ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 DINT-00 DODE-00 DOTE-00
SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00
H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01
NSAE-00 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PC-01 PM-00 PRS-00
ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00
DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /008W
-------------- 43B88F 271550Z /38
P 271500Z NOV 01
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0399
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 003558

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY
PARIS FOR CHARLES NEARY
NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/27/11
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR ZI
SUBJECT: EXPECT HUGE VOTER TURNOUT IN ZIMBABWE,
POLITICAL POLLSTER TELLS AMBASSADOR


5. (C) WE ARE SKEPTICAL OF SITHOLE'S "INITIAL FINDINGS"
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 03558 02 OF 02 271549Z
OF A PREDICTED 89-90 PERCENT VOTER TURNOUT IN THE
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. ALTHOUGH WE WOULD HAVE TO SEE
THE POLL'S RESULTS AND METHODOLOGY, WE HAVE TO TEMPER
THE INITIAL FINDINGS WITH THE OBSERVATION THAT LARGE
NUMBERS OF PEOPLE ARE AFRAID TO EVEN RESPOND TO POLLING
QUESTIONS. REPORTEDLY, 50 PERCENT OF PEOPLE APPROACHED
REFUSED TO PARTICIPATE IN AN AUTHORITATIVE SURVEY DUE
OUT IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IT IS AN EVEN BIGGER -- AND
MORE CRITICAL -- LEAP FROM DESIRING A POLITICAL CHANGE
AND ACTUALLY GOING TO THE POLLING BOOTH AND EXPRESSING
THAT DESIRE UNDER THE CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAILING IN
ZIMBABWE.

SULLIVAN

CONFIDENTIAL

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