AMBASSADOR, ZANU-PF SECRETARY OF INFORMATION NATHAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 003527

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER
BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU
LONDON FOR GURNEY
PARIS FOR NEARY
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER

E.O. 12958: DECL. 11/23/11
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM PINR
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR, ZANU-PF SECRETARY OF INFORMATION NATHAN
SHAMUYARIRA DISCUSS ZDERA, POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

REF: A) HARARE 3463 B) HARARE 3400

CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF MATT HARRINGTON. REASONS:
1.5 (B) AND (D).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) IN A NOVEMBER 20 MEETING WITH THE AMBASSADOR, SENIOR ZANU-
PF OFFICIAL NATHAN SHAMUYARIRA SAID THE GOZ WANTS TO MAINTAIN GOOD
RELATIONS WITH THE USG, AND HE URGED THAT THE ZIMBABWE DEMOCRACY
AND RECOVERY ACT (ZDERA),CURRENTLY BEFORE THE HOUSE OF
REPRESENTATIVES, BE TAKEN "OFF THE AGENDA." THE AMBASSADOR SAID
CONCRETE IMPROVEMENTS ON OUR ISSUES OF CONCERN -- RESTORATION OF
THE RULE OF LAW, A REDUCTION IN POLITICAL VIOLENCE, FREE AND FAIR
ELECTIONS -- ARE ESSENTIAL PRECURSORS TO AN IMPROVED RELATIONSHIP
WITH US. SHAMUYARIRA INSISTED THAT INTERNATIONAL ELECTION
OBSERVERS WILL BE INVITED AFTER THE ELECTION DATES ARE ANNOUNCED,
BUT HE STRESSED THAT "LONG-HAIRED SCANDINAVIANS" TRYING TO TEACH
US ABOUT DEMOCRACY WOULD NOT BE PERMITTED TO PARTICIPATE. HE
CLAIMED THE RULING PARTY IS URGING ITS SUPPORTERS TO CONDUCT A
PEACEFUL CAMPAIGN, BUT LAMENTED THAT THEY MIGHT BE DIFFICULT TO
CONTROL IN THE FACE OF PROVOCATIONS FROM THE OPPOSITION MDC. END
SUMMARY.

ZDERA
--------------

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PAGE 03 HARARE 03527 01 OF 03 231104Z

2. (C) IN A NOVEMBER 20 CONVERSATION WITH THE AMBASSADOR, ZANU-PF
ELDER STATESMAN -- AND THE RULING PARTY'S SECRETARY FOR
INFORMATION -- NATHAN SHAMUYARIRA FIRST RAISED THE ZIMBABWE
DEMOCRACY AND ECONOMIC RECOVERY ACT (ZDERA),CURRENTLY BEFORE THE
U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES. SHAMUYARIRA SAID THE GOVERNMENT
WANTED TO "GET ZDERA OFF THE AGENDA" AND HE THOUGHT PRESIDENT
MUGABE MIGHT SOON WRITE TO PRESIDENT BUSH EXPRESSING HIS CONCERNS
ABOUT THIS PENDING LEGISLATION. THE AMBASSADOR NOTED THAT ZDERA
WAS AS MUCH AN INCENTIVES BILL AS A SANCTIONS BILL, AND THAT IT
RECOMMENDS THE IMPOSITION OF TARGETED PERSONAL SANCTIONS IN THE
ABSENCE OF PROGRESS ON RULE OF LAW AND HUMAN RIGHTS CONCERNS, AND
FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS. THE AMBASSADOR SAID PRESIDENT MUGABE WAS
WELCOME TO SEND A LETTER BUT HE EMPHASIZED THAT CONCRETE ACTIONS
ADDRESSING THE AREAS OF CONCERN SPECIFIED IN THE BILL WOULD CARRY
MUCH GREATER WEIGHT WITH THE U.S. CONGRESS.

U.S.-ZIMBABWE RELATIONSHIP
--------------


3. (C) SHAMUYARIRA SAID THE GOZ WANTS TO KEEP RELATIONS WITH THE
USG "ON AN EVEN KEEL," AS THE UNITED STATES HAS ALWAYS USED ITS
INFLUENCE IN ZIMBABWE CONSTRUCTIVELY. HE SAID THE BRITISH ARE
"AGAINST US" AND HAVE CONVINCED THE EUROPEAN UNION TO TAKE THE
SAME TACK. THE GOZ HOPED THE USG WOULD DISTANCE ITSELF FROM THAT
APPROACH BY DROPPING ZDERA AND BY MAKING A GESTURE TOWARD MUGABE.
(NOTE: HE DID NOT ELABORATE ON WHAT KIND OF GESTURE MIGHT BE
HELPFUL. END NOTE.) HE URGED THAT PRESIDENT BUSH "PLEASE,
PLEASE" NOT PURSUE A CONFRONTATIONAL APPROACH WITH PRESIDENT
MUGABE, AS IT WOULD NOT BE PRODUCTIVE.


4. (C) THE AMBASSADOR SAID POLITICAL VIOLENCE AND RULE OF LAW ARE
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PAGE 04 HARARE 03527 01 OF 03 231104Z
MAJOR ISSUES FOR THE UNITED STATES, AND PROGRESS OR LACK OF
PROGRESS ON THOSE FRONTS WOULD BE KEY DETERMINANTS OF OUR
BILATERAL RELATIONSHIP. IT IS IMPORTANT THAT OUR TWO GOVERNMENTS
MAINTAIN OPEN CHANNELS OF COMMUNICATION, BUT HE SAID HE WANTED TO
MAKE IT VERY CLEAR THAT THE MOST IMPORTANT THING FOR THE UNITED
STATES IS TO SEE CONCRETE IMPROVEMENTS ON THE GROUND.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT HAS DETERIORATED SINCE
THE MID-OCTOBER VISIT OF AF PDAS MARK BELLAMY. THE RECENT
POLITICAL VIOLENCE IN BULAWAYO (REFTELS),IN PARTICULAR, HAD
CAUSED US SERIOUS CONCERN. THE AMBASSADOR NOTED THAT HE HAD SEEN
MULTIPLE ACCOUNTS THAT WAR VETERANS BURNED DOWN THE MDC OFFICE
WHILE POLICE STOOD BY AND DID NOTHING. THAT IS THE SORT OF
ACTION, HE SAID, WHICH GARNERS INTERNATIONAL HEADLINES AND MAKES
IT MORE LIKELY THAT ZDERA WILL PASS. IF THAT REPORT IS TRUE AND
POLICE DID NOT TAKE ANY ACTION, SHAMUYARIRA REPLIED, THEY SHOULD
BE REPRIMANDED. POLICE, HE ASSERTED, SHOULD BE NEUTRAL AND DO
EVERYTHING IN THEIR POWER TO MAINTAIN LAW AND ORDER, REGARDLESS OF
WHO VIOLATES IT.

LAND, VIOLENCE, ELECTIONS
--------------

CONFIDENTIAL

CONFIDENTIAL PTQ7306

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ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 INL-00 DODE-00 DOTE-00
WHA-00 DS-00 EAP-00 EB-00 EUR-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00
VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 VCE-00 NSAE-00 EPAE-00 DSCC-00
DRL-02 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /002W
-------------- 4231AD 231105Z /38
P 231017Z NOV 01
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0355
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
AMEMBASSY OSLO
AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM
AMEMBASSY CANBERRA
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA
AMEMBASSY KINGSTON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 003527

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER
BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU
LONDON FOR GURNEY
PARIS FOR NEARY
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER

E.O. 12958: DECL. 11/23/11
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM PINR
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 03527 02 OF 03 231104Z
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR, ZANU-PF SECRETARY OF INFORMATION NATHAN
SHAMUYARIRA DISCUSS ZDERA, POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS


5. (C) ON LAND, THE AMBASSADOR CONTINUED, THE ABUJA AGREEMENT
APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN PREEMPTED BY EXECUTIVE ACTIONS INTENDED TO
PROHIBIT THE ABILITY OF COMMERCIAL FARMERS AFFECTED BY FAST TRACK
TO PURSUE LEGAL REMEDIES. REGARDING PREPARATIONS FOR THE
ELECTION, WE CONTINUE TO RECEIVE REPORTS OF POLITICAL VIOLENCE,
PARTICULARLY IN RURAL AREAS. IN ADDITION, THE PROPOSED AMENDMENTS
TO THE ELECTORAL ACT CAUSE US SERIOUS CONCERN, INCLUDING THE
APPARENT INTENTION TO PREVENT CIVIL SOCIETY FROM SERVING AS
DOMESTIC ELECTION MONITORS, A ROLE THEY HAVE TRADITIONALLY PLAYED
IN ZIMBABWE. THE AMBASSADOR REMINDED SHAMUYARIRA THAT WE ARE
STILL AWAITING WORD FROM THE GOZ ON WHETHER INTERNATIONAL
OBSERVERS WILL BE PERMITTED.


6. (C) SHAMUYARIRA REPLIED THAT HE WAS NOT FULLY BRIEFED ON THE
GOVERNMENT'S RECENT MOVES ON LAND. HE WAS CONCERNED BY THE
ANNOUNCED INTENTION TO LIMIT THE SIZES OF FARMS TO AS LITTLE AS
250 HECTARES, WHICH WAS "TOO SMALL FOR VIABLE FARMING." REGARDING
THE ELECTION, THE ZANU-PF OFFICIAL SAID INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS
WOULD BE PERMITTED AFTER THE ELECTION DATES ARE ANNOUNCED. HE
MADE IT CLEAR THAT INVITATIONS WOULD NOT BE ISSUED TO SCANDINAVIAN
COUNTRIES, WHICH HE CLAIMED STRONGLY SUPPORT THE OPPOSITION MDC
AND WOULD CAMPAIGN HEAVILY FOR THE OPPOSITION PARTY UNDER THE
GUISE OF ELECTION OBSERVATION. "WE DO NOT WANT LONG-HAIRED
SCANDINAVIANS TEACHING US ABOUT DEMOCRACY," HE SAID. HE ASSERTED
THAT THE RULING PARTY IS URGING ITS SUPPORTERS TO CONDUCT A
PEACEFUL CAMPAIGN, BUT HE WARNED THAT IT WOULD BE DIFFICULT TO
CONTROL THEM IN THE FACE OF CONTINUED PROVOCATIONS FROM THE MDC.
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PAGE 03 HARARE 03527 02 OF 03 231104Z
IF THE MDC COULD KEEP ITS FOLLOWERS QUIET, HE SURMISED, ZANU-PF
COULD "LIKELY KEEP OURS QUIET AS WELL."

OF COURSE OUR ELECTION WILL BE FREE AND FAIR
--------------


7. (C) SHAMUYARIRA DECLARED THAT ZIMBABWE HAD HELD FREE AND FAIR
ELECTIONS SINCE INDEPENDENCE, AND HE INSISTED THAT THERE WOULD BE
NO RIGGING OR TAMPERING IN THE UPCOMING PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. HE
DISMISSED CONCERNS THAT REGISTRAR-GENERAL TOBAIWA MUDEDE IS TOO
CLOSELY TIED TO THE RULING PARTY. MUDEDE, HE POINTED OUT, HAD
ORGANIZED THE FEBRUARY 2000 CONSTITUTIONAL REFERENDUM IN WHICH THE
GOVERNMENT HAD BEEN DEFEATED, SUPERVISED THE PARLIAMENTARY
ELECTIONS IN JUNE 2000 IN WHICH THE MDC WON A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER
OF SEATS, AND OVERSAW THE 2001 MAYORAL ELECTIONS IN MASVINGO AND
BULAWAYO, BOTH OF WHICH THE MDC WON. SINCE ANY SYSTEM CAN BE
MANIPULATED, SHAMUYARIRA SAID, THE STRENGTH OF ANY ELECTORAL
PROCESS DEPENDS ON THE INTEGRITY OF THE INDIVIDUALS WHO OVERSEE
IT, AND ZIMBABWE'S ELECTORAL AUTHORITIES HAVE ALWAYS BEEN NON-
PARTISAN AND OF THE HIGHEST INTEGRITY. SHAMUYARIRA SAID HE DID
NOT THINK ANY ZIMBABWEAN BELIEVES PRESIDENT MUGABE OR ZANU-PF RIGS
ELECTIONS, ALTHOUGH THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY HAS HAMMERED THEM
FOR DOING SO. WHEN THE OPPOSITION PARTY CALLS FOR MUDEDE TO GO,
THEY ARE REALLY PUSHING FOR AN MDC SUPPORTER TO REPLACE HIM.


8. (C) THE AMBASSADOR ENCOURAGED THE GOZ TO ESTABLISH MECHANISMS
TO REASSURE POLITICAL PARTIES AND ZIMBABWEANS IN GENERAL OF THE
INTEGRITY AND FAIRNESS OF THE ELECTORAL PROCESS. ESTABLISHMENT OF
AN INDEPENDENT ELECTORAL COMMISSION, AS RECOMMENDED BY THE SADC
PARLIAMENTARY FORUM'S ELECTORAL NORMS AND STANDARDS, IS ONE
IMPORTANT STEP. ANOTHER IS TO PERMIT INTERNATIONAL OBSERVATION OF
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PAGE 04 HARARE 03527 02 OF 03 231104Z
THE ELECTORAL PROCESS BY CREDIBLE, NON-PARTISAN ORGANIZATIONS. IN
ADDITION, VOTER EDUCATION CAN BE AN AREA FOR COOPERATION RATHER
THAN CONFRONTATION. TO THE EXTENT THAT ELECTORAL AUTHORITIES CAN
FIND WAYS TO MAXIMIZE THE INFORMATION GETTING TO ELIGIBLE VOTERS,
THAT HELPS BUTTRESS CONFIDENCE IN THE PROCESS. SHAMUYARIRA
RESPONDED THAT THEY WOULD ALLOW POLITICAL PARTIES TO CONDUCT VOTER
EDUCATION BUT WOULD HENCEFORTH PROHIBIT NGO'S FROM DOING SO.
CIVIL SOCIETY IN ZIMBABWE IS NOT NEUTRAL, HE INSISTED BUT, RATHER,
IS CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH THE MDC. IF THE PLEA THE AMBASSADOR WAS
MAKING WAS TO ALLOW CIVIC BODIES TO CARRY OUT VOTER EDUCATION, HE
WOULD MAKE A COUNTER-DEMAND THAT THEY BE GENUINELY NEUTRAL. THAT
IS A FAIR POINT THAT SHOULD BE EXAMINED BY THE ELECTORAL
AUTHORITIES, THE AMBASSADOR REPLIED, BUT THE BEST PRINCIPLE, IN
GENERAL, IS THE MORE EDUCATION OF VOTERS, THE BETTER.

RACIAL TENSIONS
--------------


9. (C) SHAMUYARIRA SAID THEY HAVE BEEN VERY DISAPPOINTED BY THE
BEHAVIOR OF "EUROPEANS" (WHITE ZIMBABWEANS),WHO DECLINED TO
PARTICIPATE IN THE POLITICAL PROCESS HERE AFTER INDEPENDENCE. FOR

CONFIDENTIAL

CONFIDENTIAL PTQ7307

PAGE 01 HARARE 03527 03 OF 03 231105Z
ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 INL-00 DODE-00 DOTE-00
WHA-00 DS-00 EAP-00 EB-00 EUR-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00
VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 VCE-00 NSAE-00 EPAE-00 DSCC-00
DRL-02 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /002W
-------------- 4231B2 231105Z /38
P 231017Z NOV 01
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0356
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
AMEMBASSY OSLO
AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM
AMEMBASSY CANBERRA
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA
AMEMBASSY KINGSTON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 003527

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER
BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU
LONDON FOR GURNEY
PARIS FOR NEARY
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER

E.O. 12958: DECL. 11/23/11
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM PINR
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 03527 03 OF 03 231105Z
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR, ZANU-PF SECRETARY OF INFORMATION NATHAN
SHAMUYARIRA DISCUSS ZDERA, POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

TWENTY YEARS, THEY KEPT TO THEMSELVES, "GOING FISHING ON LAKE
KARIBA" INSTEAD OF ATTENDING NATIONAL DAYS IN HARARE. WHEN THEY
CAME OUT STRONGLY IN SUPPORT OF THE MDC PRIOR TO THE JUNE 2000
PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS, THEIR STANCE "ELICITED A VERY STRONG
REACTION FROM US."

COMMENT
--------------


10. (C) WE HAD BARELY SAT DOWN WHEN SHAMUYARIRA LAUNCHED INTO
ZDERA, AND THE IMPORTANCE TO THE GOZ OF BLOCKING CONGRESSIONAL
PASSAGE. ALTHOUGH ZDERA WOULD HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON THE GROUND
HERE IN TERMS OF DECREASED ECONOMIC ASSISTANCE OR IMF/IBRD RE-
ENGAGEMENT, THE GOZ AND ZANU-PF REALIZE ITS PASSAGE WOULD BE A
SIGNIFICANT GESTURE OF U.S. DISAPPROVAL OF GOZ ACTIONS, AND
THEREFORE HOPES VERY MUCH THAT IT CAN BE TURNED OFF. THAT SAID,
ZDERA'S APPROVAL WOULD CERTAINLY PROMPT THE GOZ TO ADD US TO THE
BURGEONING LIST OF FOREIGN ENEMIES WHICH ALREADY INCLUDES THE
UNITED KINGDOM, THE SCANDINAVIANS, AND THE EU (AT LEAST WE WOULD
BE IN GOOD COMPANY). WE WOULD EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN
OFFICIAL ANTI-USG RHETORIC AND REDUCED ACCESS TO GOZ OFFICIALS.
IN A WORST-CASE SCENARIO, THE GOZ WOULD USE ZDERA AS A PRETEXT TO
INVOKE SOVEREIGNTY CONCERNS AND LAUNCH A NO-HOLDS BARRED CRACKDOWN
ON THE MDC, THE INDEPENDENT PRESS, AND OTHER ELEMENTS OF CIVIL
SOCIETY SUPPORTED BY ITS NEW ENEMY. WE RECALL THAT FM MUDENGE
SAID IN PARLIAMENT SEVERAL MONTHS AGO THAT PASSAGE OF ZDERA COULD
PROMPT THE GOZ TO DECLARE A STATE OF EMERGENCY, A BLUFF THAT WE
ARE WILLING TO CALL.
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PAGE 03 HARARE 03527 03 OF 03 231105Z

SULLIVAN

CONFIDENTIAL

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