NEW ZIMBABWE SURVEY PORTENDS CLOSE PRESIDENTIAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 003398

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY
PARIS FOR CHARLES NEARY
NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/14/11
TAGS: PGOV PINR ZI
SUBJECT: NEW ZIMBABWE SURVEY PORTENDS CLOSE PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTION


CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL OFFICER TODD FAULK FOR REASONS:
1.5 (B) AND (D).


1. (U) IN ITS NOVEMBER 8-14 EDITION, THE INDEPENDENT
"FINANCIAL GAZETTE" IN A SPECIAL INSERT PUBLISHED THE
RESULTS OF A NATIONWIDE OPINION SURVEY IT COMMISSIONED
TO DETERMINE SUPPORT FOR ZIMBABWE'S LEADING PRESIDENTIAL
CANDIDATES. THE RAW UNWEIGHTED DATA SHOW THAT 33.5
PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS PLAN TO VOTE FOR PRESIDENT
MUGABE, 30 PERCENT INTEND TO VOTE FOR MDC PRESIDENT
MORGAN TSVANGIRAI, WHILE, SIGNIFICANTLY, 31.3 PERCENT
ARE STILL UNDECIDED; 5.2 PERCENT DO NOT PLAN TO VOTE.
THE UNWEIGHTED DATA ARE BIASED IN FAVOR OF MUGABE
BECAUSE A LARGE PERCENTAGE OF PEOPLE REFUSED TO
PARTICIPATE IN THE SURVEY OUT OF FEAR OF RULING PARTY
REPRISALS, ACCORDING TO THE "GAZETTE" ARTICLES. WHEN
THE DATA IS WEIGHTED TO REMOVE THOSE RESPONDENTS WHO ARE
UNDECIDED AND WHO DO NOT INTEND TO VOTE, THEY SHOW THAT
52.9 PERCENT OF THE ELECTORATE WOULD VOTE FOR TSVANGIRAI
AND 47.1 PERCENT WOULD VOTE FOR MUGABE.

"SMALL VICTORY" FOR MDC
--------------


2. (U) THE "GAZETTE" POLL SHOWS THAT AFTER WEIGHING THE
RESULTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MDC SUPPORTERS WHO REFUSED TO
PARTICIPATE, THE MDC'S SUPPORT HAS GROWN IN ALL
PROVINCES SINCE THE 2000 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION, EXCEPT
IN BULAWAYO, WHERE ZANU-PF PICKED UP SOME SUPPORT. FOR
EXAMPLE, IN THE ZANU-PF STRONGHOLD OF MASHONALAND
CENTRAL, 28.8 PERCENT OF THE ELECTORATE PLANS TO VOTE
FOR TSVANGIRAI, UP FROM THE 20 PERCENT OF THE VOTES THE
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PAGE 03 HARARE 03398 01 OF 02 141508Z
MDC RECEIVED IN 2000, ACCORDING TO THE SURVEY.
IMPORTANTLY, HOWEVER, SUPPORT FOR MUGABE REMAINS ABOVE
50 PERCENT IN ALL THREE MASHONALAND PROVINCES. IN THE
KEY BATTLEGROUND PROVINCE OF MASVINGO, MUGABE RETAINS
THE UPPERHAND WITH 56.6 PERCENT OF VOTERS BACKING HIM
COMPARED TO 43.4 PERCENT FOR TSVANGIRAI. SUPPORT FOR
THE MDC HAS GROWN SLIGHTLY IN HARARE AND THE
MATABELELAND PROVINCES. IN BULAWAYO, THE "GAZETTE"
EXPLAINED THAT ZANU-PF'S INCREASE WAS DUE TO THE
EXCLUSION OF INDEPENDENT CANDIDATES FROM THE SURVEY.
BULAWAYO HAD A LARGE NUMBER OF INDEPENDENT CANDIDATES IN
2000, AND MOST OF THEIR SUPPORTERS DECIDED TO THROW
THEIR WEIGHT BEHIND ZANU-PF RATHER THAN THE MDC.


3. (C) ON NOVEMBER 8, POLOFF SPOKE TO PROFESSOR
MASIPULA SITHOLE, A UNIVERSITY OF ZIMBABWE LECTURER,
COLUMNIST, AND DIRECTOR OF THE INSTITUTE OF PUBLIC
OPINION. SITHOLE CHARACTERIZED THE "GAZETTE" SURVEY AS
"A SMALL VICTORY FOR THE MDC." THE RESULTS OF THE 2000
REFERENDUM AND PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS WERE NARROW --
AND THE 2002 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WILL BE AS WELL -- SO
ANY GAIN IN SUPPORT IS IMPORTANT FOR THE MDC'S CHANCES,
SITHOLE OPINED. HE STATED THAT THE FIVE BY-ELECTIONS OF
THE LAST YEAR BROKE NO NEW GROUND FOR EITHER PARTY. A
CRITICAL FACTOR IN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WILL BE
VOTER TURNOUT. IT HAS TRADITIONALLY BEEN LOW (45-50
PERCENT) IN PRESIDENTIAL POLLS, BUT IS LIKELY TO BE MUCH
HIGHER THIS TIME AROUND, A FACTOR THAT FAVORS THE MDC,
HE STATED. HIS INSTITUTE IS CURRENTLY TABULATING THE
RESULTS OF ITS OWN SURVEY (1800 RESPONDENTS),WHICH
FOCUSED ON VOTER APATHY AND VOTER TURNOUT. THE RESULTS
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PAGE 04 HARARE 03398 01 OF 02 141508Z
SHOULD BE RELEASED IN ABOUT TWO WEEKS, HE SAID. THE
RESPECTED HELEN SUZMAN FOUNDATION, WHICH CONDUCTED THREE
IMPORTANT SURVEYS IN ZIMBABWE LAST YEAR, IS ALSO DUE TO
RELEASE ANOTHER ONE BY THE END OF THE MONTH, SITHOLE
NOTED.

POLL METHODOLOGY
--------------


4. (C) THE "GAZETTE" SURVEY WAS CARRIED OUT BY THE
INDEPENDENT MARKETING RESEARCH ORGANIZATION TARGET
RESEARCH -- BASED IN SOUTH AFRICA -- BETWEEN AUGUST 17
AND SEPTEMBER 28. SITHOLE REMARKED THAT HE DOES NOT
KNOW TARGET RESEARCH WELL, BUT HE HAS HEARD THEY HAVE A
GOOD REPUTATION IN SOUTHERN AFRICA. ITS RESEARCHERS
POLLED 3,013 PEOPLE NATIONWIDE -- THE LARGEST SURVEY OF
ITS KIND TO DATE -- AND THE RESULTS HAD A 2.7 PERCENT
MARGIN OF ERROR. THE RESULTS WERE WEIGHTED AND
TABULATED ACCORDING TO MANY FACTORS, INCLUDING GENDER,
ETHNICITY, AGE GROUP, EDUCATION, AND URBAN/RURAL
LOCATION.

COMMENT: THE RACE WILL BE CLOSE
--------------

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ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 USNW-00 DINT-00 DODE-00
DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00
VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 LAB-01 L-00
VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PC-01
PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00
PMB-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /008W
-------------- 3E1C42 141509Z /38
P 141424Z NOV 01
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0272
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 003398

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY
PARIS FOR CHARLES NEARY
NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/14/11
TAGS: PGOV PINR ZI
SUBJECT: NEW ZIMBABWE SURVEY PORTENDS CLOSE PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTION

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PAGE 02 HARARE 03398 02 OF 02 141508Z

5. (C) BEFORE PUTTING TOO MUCH STOCK IN THIS POLL, ONE
MUST CONSIDER THE FOLLOWING CAVEATS. WE ARE UNABLE TO
PROVIDE MORE THAN A LAYMAN'S ASSESSMENT OF EITHER THE
METHODOLOGY OR THE BONA FIDES OF TARGET RESEARCH. THE
QUESTIONS USED BY THE POLLSTERS, WHICH IN THEMSELVES CAN
SKEW THE RESULTS, WERE NOT MADE AVAILABLE IN THE
PUBLISHED RESULTS. IN ADDITION, THE "GAZETTE" CLAIMS
THAT IN 1999 MICHIGAN STATE UNIVERSITY NAMED TARGET
RESEARCH ONE OF SIX "OUTSTANDING RESEARCH ORGANIZATIONS
IN EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AFRICA," A CLAIM THAT IS
APPARENTLY UNFOUNDED. MOREOVER, THE "GAZETTE" APPEARS
TO ASSUME THAT THE LARGE NUMBER OF PEOPLE WHO DID NOT
RESPOND TO THE SURVEY WOULD SUPPORT THE MDC. THE SURVEY
DID NOT MAKE CLEAR HOW THE POLLSTERS DETERMINED WHO IS
AND WHO IS NOT AN MDC SUPPORTER AMONG THE
NONRESPONDENTS.


6. (C) COMMENT CONTINUED: ALTHOUGH SURVEY STATISTICS
CAN BE MANIPULATED TO SHOW ALMOST ANYTHING, THE
"GAZETTE" POLL DOES SHOW, NO MATTER HOW THE NUMBERS ARE
SLICED, THAT SUPPORT FOR THE TWO PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES
APPEARS TO BE NEARLY EVENLY DIVIDED. BOTH PARTIES
APPEAR TO BE HOLDING ONTO THEIR KEY REGIONS AND
DEMOGRAPHICS FOR SUPPORT. MORE THAN A YEAR OF ECONOMIC
DECLINE AND POLITICAL VIOLENCE HAS ERODED SUPPORT FOR
PRESIDENT MUGABE SOMEWHAT, BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT THAT
MIGHT BE EXPECTED. THE SURVEY RESULTS COULD EVEN
REPRESENT A TURNAROUND FOR ZANU-PF, WHICH A YEAR AGO WAS
AT ITS LOWEST SUPPORT LEVELS SINCE INDEPENDENCE, IF ONE
USES THE LAST HELEN SUZMAN FOUNDATION POLL AS A GUIDE.

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7. (C) COMMENT CONTINUED: THE KEY FACTOR IN THE
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WILL BE THE LARGE NUMBER OF
UNDECIDED VOTERS AND WHETHER THEY TURN OUT TO VOTE. IT
IS UNKNOWN HOW MANY OF THESE MAY BE MDC SUPPORTERS
AFRAID TO EXPREC THEIR TRUE OPINION. A SHOCKING 25
PERCENT OF SURVEY RESPONDENTS REVEALED THAT THEY CHANGED
THEIR VOTING BEHAVIOR IN 2000 BECAUSE OF POLITICAL
INTIMIDATION (14 PERCENT DID NOT VOTE AND 11 PERCENT
VOTED FOR A DIFFERENT CANDIDATE). THE "UNDECIDEDS" MAY
WELL DECIDE TO STAY HOME ON ELECTION DAY IF THEY FEEL
UNSAFE, WHILE ONLY THE DIEHARD SUPPORTERS OF BOTH
PARTIES CAST THEIR BALLOT. WITH ALL THE ADVANTAGES OF
INCUMBENCY, IT WOULD THEN BE MUCH EASIER FOR ZANU-PF TO
MANIPULATE A CLOSE ELECTION. NEW SURVEYS DUE OUT THIS
MONTH SHOULD SHED MORE LIGHT ON THE LIKELY ELECTION
OUTCOME. END COMMENT.

SULLIVAN

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