IMPROVING AND OBSERVING THE ELECTION PROCESS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 HARARE 003303

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF, AF/S, AND AF/EPS
USAID FOR AFR/SA

LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY
PARIS FOR NEARY
BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/01/11
TAGS: PGOV PINR ZI
SUBJECT: IMPROVING AND OBSERVING THE ELECTION PROCESS
IN ZIMBABWE


CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR JOSEPH G. SULLIVAN FOR REASONS
1.5 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) THE GOVERNMENT OF ZIMBABWE AND THE RULING ZANU-PF
UTILIZED VIOLENCE, INTIMIDATION AND MANIPULATION IN LAST
YEAR'S PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION, BUT STILL LOST ALMOST
HALF THE VOTE TO A STRONG MDC OPPOSITION CAMPAIGN. THAT
ELECTION WAS MONITORED BY A STRONG GROUP OF ZIMBABWEAN
MONITORS, LED BY THE ZIMBABWEAN ELECTORAL SUPPORT
NETWORK AND OBSERVED BY MANY INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS,
INCLUDING THE EU, THE COMMONWEALTH AND THE SADC
PARLIAMENTARY FORUM AMONG OTHERS WHOSE SUBSTANTIAL
PRESENCE LIKELY HELPED REDUCE VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION
IMMEDIATELY PRIOR TO ELECTIONS.


2. (C) AS WE APPROACH PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS TO BE HELD
IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2002, THE COUNTRY'S ECONOMIC
SITUATION HAS MARKEDLY DECLINED AND THE ZANU-PF
GOVERNMENT IS ALREADY UTILIZING VIOLENCE AND
INTIMIDATION AGAINST OPPOSITION SUPPORTERS, PARTICULARLY
IN RURAL AREAS, AND UTILIZING THE FAST TRACK LAND
DISTRIBUTION NOT ONLY AS A POLITICAL RALLYING CRY, BUT
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ALSO TO DISTRIBUTE ITS SUPPORTERS AND "TOUGHS"
THROUGHOUT THE RURAL AREAS AND TO DISLOCATE THE
AGRICULTURAL WORKERS WHO ARE ASSUMED TO BE OPPOSITION
SUPPORTERS. AT THE SAME TIME, THE GOVERNMENT OF
ZIMBABWE HAS REBUFFED EU AND US (INTERNATIONAL
FOUNDATION FOR ELECTION SYSTEMS - IFES) EFFORTS TO SEND
PRE-ELECTORAL ASSESSMENT TEAMS, CLAIMING THAT THE EU
REQUEST WAS AN UNACCEPTABLE ULTIMATUM AND INTERVENTION
IN SOVEREIGN AFFAIRS AND THAT THE IFES VISIT WAS NOT
PROPERLY REQUESTED. THE GOVERNMENT CLAIMS THAT IT HAS
ALWAYS WELCOMED OBSERVERS AND WILL AGAIN, BUT THAT IT IS
TOO EARLY AND THE GOVERNMENT WILL DECIDE WHOM TO INVITE.
PRESIDENT MUGABE RECENTLY TOLD ABUJA AGREEMENT VISITORS
THAT OBSERVERS FROM SADC, THE AFRICAN UNION AND COMESA
(WHICH DOES NOT EVEN DO ELECTION OBSERVATION) WOULD BE
WELCOMED, BUT REFUSED TO COMMIT TO INVITING COMMONWEALTH
OBSERVERS. IN SUM, THE GOVERNMENT HAS DONE EVERYTHING
POSSIBLE TO DELAY ELECTION OBSERVATION AS LONG AS
POSSIBLE AND TO MINIMIZE THE NUMBER OF INTERNATIONAL
OBSERVERS. THE GOVERNMENT SAYS IT WILL ALSO PERMIT
DOMESTIC ELECTION MONITORS, BUT IS SEEKING TO MAINTAIN
AS MUCH CONTROL AS POSSIBLE OVER THE ELECTORAL
MECHANISMS AND PROCEDURES.


3. (C) THE GOVERNMENT DOMINATES THE INSTRUMENTS OF
REPRESSION AND HAS BEEN UTILIZING SUCH OFFICIAL AND
UNOFFICIAL INSTRUMENTS TO INTIMIDATE OPPOSITION
SUPPORTERS. THE GOVERNMENT TRADITIONALLY HAS SPENT AND
WILL AGAIN, WITHIN THE LIMITS OF THE COUNTRY'S RESOURCE
CONSTRAINTS BOTH STATE AND PARTY RESOURCES TO ADVANCE
ZANU-PF INTERESTS. THE GOVERNMENT ALSO CONTROLS BY
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CONSTITUTIONAL PROVISION THE REGISTRAR GENERAL, THE
ELECTIONS DIRECTORATE AND DELIMITATION COMMITTEES. THE
MEMBERS OF THE ELECTORAL SUPERVISORY COMMISSION, WHICH
OVERSEES THE REGISTRATION OF VOTERS AND THE CONDUCT OF
ELECTIONS ARE ALL APPOINTED BY THE PRESIDENT, ALTHOUGH
SOME ARE INDEPENDENT INDIVIDUALS. THESE BODIES HAVE IN
PAST ELECTIONS ADJUSTED RULES AND VOTING DISTRICTS AT
THE MARGINS AND TO ASSURE THAT MOST ELECTORAL DISPUTES
CAME OUT IN ZANU-PF'S FAVOR. THE ABOVE FACTORS
NOTWITHSTANDING, ELECTION DAYS THEMSELVES HAVE GENERALLY
BEEN CALM AND THE VOTING PROCESS ITSELF HAS FUNCTIONED
RELATIVELY SMOOTHLY, ALBEIT WITH SOME CHEATING AT THE
EDGES.


4. (C) DESPITE ALL THE ABOVE ADVANTAGES, PRESIDENT
MUGABE AND ZANU-PF SEEK THE LEGITIMACY THAT WOULD BE
CONFERRED BY AN ELECTION THAT IS ACCEPTED
INTERNATIONALLY AND DOMESTICALLY AS REASONABLY FREE,
FAIR AND CREDIBLE AND THEY RECOGNIZE THAT AN ELECTION
WITHOUT A CREDIBLE OPPOSITION OR WITH MASSIVE FRAUD AND
VIOLENCE WILL NOT SERVE THEIR PURPOSE. AS A RESULT, THE
OPPOSITION, CIVIL SOCIETY AND THE INTERNATIONAL
COMMUNITY HAVE SOME LEVERAGE, IF ACTION IS TAKEN IN A
TIMELY AND CONCERTED FASHION. IT WOULD BE EASY FOR THE
US OR IFES TO DECLARE UNILATERALLY THAT THE DATE HAS
ALREADY PASSED OR WILL IMMINENTLY PASS WHEN EFFECTIVE
AND EARLY ELECTION OBSERVATION CAN BE ACCOMPLISHED AND

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INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 INL-00 DINT-00
DODE-00 DOEE-00 DOTE-00 WHA-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EAP-00
EB-00 EUR-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00
INR-00 LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 NSCE-00
OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PC-01 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00
P-00 SP-00 SSO-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 R-00 IIP-00
PMB-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /008W
-------------- 39F87B 051418Z /38
O 051327Z NOV 01
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0204
INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY CANBERRA
AMEMBASSY ABUJA
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY MADRID
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA
AMEMBASSY PARIS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 04 HARARE 003303

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF, AF/S, AND AF/EPS
USAID FOR AFR/SA
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY
PARIS FOR NEARY
BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 03303 02 OF 04 051417Z

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/01/11
TAGS: PGOV PINR ZI
SUBJECT: IMPROVING AND OBSERVING THE ELECTION PROCESS
IN ZIMBABWE

THIS STANCE HAS A CERTAIN APPEAL AND SUBSTANTIAL
JUSTIFICATION. BUT SUCH A POSITION WOULD NOT BE DOING
ALL WE CAN DO TO PREVENT PRE-ELECTION VIOLENCE AND GIVE
THE OPPOSITION THE MAXIMUM OPPORTUNITY AT A MORE LEVEL
PLAYING FIELD. MOREOVER, SUCH A STAND WOULD NOT BE
CREDIBLE INTERNATIONALLY, GIVEN THE NUMEROUS ELECTION
OBSERVATIONS THAT HAVE BEGUN TWO MONTHS OR LESS BEFORE
ELECTIONS. (EVEN THE UK HC TOLD US THAT AN OBSERVATION
BEGINNING JAN 1 WOULD BE ACCEPTABLE FOR HIM.)


5. (C) ACCORDINGLY, WE PROPOSE THAT THE US CONSULT WITH
THE EU, KEY COMMONWEALTH AND ABUJA PARTNERS AND KEY SADC
COUNTRIES TO ADVANCE THE IDEA THAT IT IS IMPORTANT FOR
US TO LET THE GOVERNMENT OF ZIMBABWE KNOW SOON,
POLITELY, BUT FIRMLY, WHAT WE NEED TO SEE IN ORDER TO
REGARD THE UPCOMING ELECTIONS AS FREE AND FAIR AND THAT
AN ELECTION WHICH FALLS SHORT OF SUCH STANDARDS WOULD
NOT BE REGARDED AS LEGITIMATE. WE PROPOSE USING THE
SADC PARLIAMENTARY FORUM NORMS AND STANDARDS FOR
ELECTIONS IN THE SADC REGION, WHICH WERE DEVELOPED AND
AGREED TO AT A FORUM IN MARCH 2001 IN WINDHOEK, NAMIBIA.
PARTICIPANTS IN THAT WINDHOEK MEETING INCLUDED SPEAKER
OF PARLIAMENT AND ZANU-PF SECRETARY GENERAL MNANGAGWA,
TWO OTHER ZANU MP'S AND AN OPPOSITION MP. WE HAVE
EXCERPTED FROM THAT DOCUMENT IN THE LAST PARAGRAPH A SET
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OF KEY CRITERIA WHICH WOULD HELP IMPROVE THE FAIRNESS
AND QUALITY OF THE ZIMBABWEAN ELECTIONS. WE WOULD ALSO
RECOMMEND SETTING A DATE, BY WHICH WE WOULD NEED TO HAVE
ZIMBABWEAN GOVERNMENT CONCURRENCE TO ELECTION OBSERVERS
AND BELIEVE THAT DECEMBER 1 IS A REASONABLE DATE. WE
HAVE BEGUN INFORMAL CONSULTATIONS HERE WITH BRITISH,
CANADIAN, EU AND SADC COLLEAGUES ON THIS APPROACH, BUT
BELIEVE IT IMPORTANT FOR THE US TO MAKE A MORE FORMAL
DEMARCHE IN CAPITALS. FOR THIS APPROACH TO BE
SUCCESSFUL, WE PROBABLY NEED TO HAVE SUFFICIENT
FLEXIBILITY IN OUR CRITERIA, DATES AND MANNER OF
APPROACH TO SECURE BROAD INTERNATIONAL AGREEMENT,
INCLUDING OF KEY SADC COUNTRIES AND NIGERIA. WHILE
OPPOSITION AND CIVIL SOCIETY MIGHT HAVE DIFFERENCES AT
THE EDGES, WE KNOW THEY WOULD WELCOME THE BROAD THRUST
OF THIS APPROACH AS SUPPORTIVE OF THEIR OWN EFFORTS.


6. (U) SELECTED EXCERPTS FROM SADC PARLIAMENTARY FORUM,
NORMS AND STANDARDS FOR ELECTIONS IN THE SADC REGION,
ADOPTED BY THE SADC PARLIAMENTARY FORUM PLENARY ASSEMBLY
ON THE 25TH OF MARCH, 2001, WINDHOEK, NAMIBIA, FOLLOW
(THESE ARE DIRECT QUOTATIONS TAKEN SELECTIVELY FROM THE
FIFTEEN PAGE DOCUMENT EXCEPT FOR NUMERATION OF
RECOMMENDATIONS ADDED. WASHINGTON ALSO NOTE SEVERAL
CHANGES FROM EARLIER FAXED COPY TO DELETE REFERENCE TO
BOUNDARY DELIMITATION COMMISSION SINCE THIS ELECTION
LIKELY TO BE HELD IN ONE NATIONAL CONSTITUENCY AND TO
DELETE REFERENCE TO ELECTORAL COMMISSION ROLE IN VOTER
EDUCATION, WHICH WAS NOT INTENDED TO HAVE SOLE ROLE IN
SADC-PF STANDARDS, BUT COULD BE SEIZED UPON FOR THAT
PURPOSE BY ZIM AUTHORITIES.)
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BEGIN QUOTES:

(FROM INTRODUCTION)...THE IMMEDIATE OBJECTIVE OF
ELECTION OBSERVATION IS TO DETERMINE THE OPENNESS,
FREENESS, AND FAIRNESS OF ELECTIONS IN THE SADC
REGION...

(FROM RECOMMENDATIONS):

(1) ...THERE SHOULD BE PROVISIONS AND PRACTICAL
ARRANGEMENTS FOR CONTINUOUS VOTER REGISTRATION AND AN
UPDATED VOTERS' REGISTER MUST BE MADE AVAILABLE TO ALL
STAKEHOLDERS IN THE ELECTIONS...

(2) ...ANY MEASURES SUCH AS POLITICAL VIOLENCE,
KIDNAPPING, MURDER, THREATS AND SANCTIONS SUCH AS DENIAL
OF DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN OPPOSITION CONTROLLED
AREAS THAT PREVENT ELIGIBLE INDIVIDUALS TO REGISTER TO
VOTE AND TO VOTE IN SECRECY SHOULD BE PERPETUALLY
OUTLAWED BY SADC MEMBER STATES...

(3) ...(I) THE SANCTITY OF THE FREEDOM OF ASSOCIATION
AND EXPRESSION SHOULD BE PROTECTED AND STRICTLY ADHERED

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ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 INL-00 DINT-00
DODE-00 DOEE-00 DOTE-00 WHA-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EAP-00
EB-00 EUR-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00
INR-00 LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 NSCE-00
OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PC-01 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00
P-00 SP-00 SSO-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 IIP-00 PMB-00
DSCC-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 SWCI-00 /008W
-------------- 39F881 051418Z /38
O 051327Z NOV 01
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0205
INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY CANBERRA
AMEMBASSY ABUJA
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY MADRID
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA
AMEMBASSY PARIS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 04 HARARE 003303

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF, AF/S, AND AF/EPS
USAID FOR AFR/SA
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY
PARIS FOR NEARY
BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 03303 03 OF 04 051418Z

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/01/11
TAGS: PGOV PINR ZI
SUBJECT: IMPROVING AND OBSERVING THE ELECTION PROCESS
IN ZIMBABWE

TO. (II) RELEVANT ELECTORAL LAWS AND CODE OF CONDUCT
SHOULD PROVIDE FOR THIS SANCTITY. (III) GOVERNMENTS
SHOULD ESTABLISH BY LAW AD HOC ELECTORAL TRIBUNALS TO
ENFORCE ELECTORAL LAWS AND CODES OF CONDUCT DURING
ELECTIONS. THEY SHOULD DEAL WITH ELECTION CONFLICTS...

(4) ...(I) IN THE INTEREST OF CREATING CONDITIONS FOR A
LEVEL PLAYING FIELD FOR ALL POLITICAL PARTIES AND
PROMOTING THE INTEGRITY OF THE ELECTORAL PROCESS,
PARTIES SHOULD NOT USE PUBLIC FUNDS IN THE ELECTORAL
PROCESS. THE ELECTORAL LAW SHOULD PROHIBIT THE
GOVERNMENT TO AID OR TO ABET ANY PARTY GAINING UNFAIR
ADVANTAGE. (II) WHERE A POLICY DECISION IS TAKEN TO
FINANCIALLY SUPPORT POLITICAL PARTIES WITH TAXPAYERS'
MONEY, ... AN AGREED UPON FORMULA MUST BE USED AND
ADHERED TO IN ALLOCATING FUNDS TO THE CONTESTING
PARTIES...

(5) GOVERNMENTS SHOULD...REFRAIN FROM TAKING DECISIONS
AND ACTIONS THAT THWART THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG
PRIVATE MEDIA...OPPOSITION PARTIES SHOULD...ALSO BE
GIVEN EQUAL OPPORTUNITY AND AGREED UPON TIME AND SPACE
ON THE STATE OWNED MEDIA TO PUT THEIR ANNOUNCEMENTS AND
BROADCASTS AND ADVERTISEMENTS. THIS IS A TRUE TEST OF
THE GOVERNMENT'S COMMITMENT TO PLURALISM AND MULTI-PARTY
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DEMOCRACY...

(6) THE COMPLETE INDEPENDENCE AND IMPARTIALITY OF THE
ELECTORAL COMMISSION IN DEALING WITH ALL POLITICAL
PARTIES SHOULD BE REAFFIRMED IN THE CONSTITUTION.

(7) THE ELECTORAL COMMISSION AND ALL STAKEHOLDERS IN THE
ELECTORAL PROCESS SHOULD THEREFORE BE REQUIRED BY LAW
AND BE EMPOWERED TO ENSURE THAT POLITICAL PARTIES AND
CANDIDATES SHOULD DENOUNCE VIOLENCE IN ORDER TO ENSURE:
UNIMPEDED FREEDOM OF CAMPAIGN THROUGHOUT THE COUNTRY;
FREE AND UNIMPEDED ACCESS TO VOTERS' ROLLS; THAT ALL
GOVERNMENT SECURITY FORCES SHOULD ACT IMPARTIALLY AND
PROFESSIONALLY; THAT PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES MUST BE
PROVIDED WITH FREE AND ADEQUATE SECURITY DURING THE
ELECTION PROCESS; EQUAL AND FREE ACCESS TO THE STATE
OWNED MEDIA; A CODE OF CONDUCT DEVELOPED THROUGH
CONSENSUS FROM ALL POLITICAL PARTIES TO GUIDE BEHAVIOUR
IN THE CONDUCT OF CAMPAIGNS; AND REASONABLE SAFEGUARDS
AT POLITICAL MEETINGS, RALLIES, POLLING STATIONS AND
PARTY PREMISES. THE AD HOC ELECTORAL TRIBUNAL SHALL
ENFORCE THE FOREGOING RECOMMENDATIONS...

(7A) ...POLLING STATIONS SHOULD BE PUBLIC PLACES SUCH AS
SCHOOLS, TENTS, MOBILE VEHICLES THAT ARE NEUTRAL...

(7B) ...COUNTRIES THAT STILL USE OPAQUE WOODEN BALLOT
BOXES ARE URGED TO DISCARD THEM IN FAVOUR OF TRANSPARENT
BALLOT BOXES...

(7C) ...(I) THE COUNTING OF VOTES SHOULD BE DONE AT THE
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POLLING STATION WHERE THE CANDIDATES AND/OR THEIR
ELECTION AGENTS ARE PRESENT. SUCH CANDIDATES AND AGENTS
SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO REMAIN WITH THE BOXES FROM CLOSURE
OF POLLING STATION TO COUNTING OF THE VOTES. (II) THERE
SHOULD BE IMMEDIATE RELEASE OF OFFICIAL ELECTION RESULTS
ON COMPLETION OF COUNTING, SIGNED BY RETURNING OFFICERS
AND CONFIRMED BY PARTY AGENTS...

(8) ...THE ACCEPTANCE BY THE HOST GOVERNMENT OF ELECTION
OBSERVERS AS A FACTOR IN FOSTERING TRANSPARENCY,
INTEGRITY AND IN INSTITUTIONALISING THE DEMOCRATIC
PROCESS IN THE CONDUCT OF ELECTION...

(9) ...SADC PARLIAMENTARY FORUM OBSERVER MISSIONS SHOULD
OBSERVE THE PRE-ELECTION (INCLUDING VOTER REGISTRATION),
ELECTION, AND POST-ELECTION PERIODS. THE TIMING OF THE
PRE-ELECTION ENTRY POINT SHALL BE DETERMINED BY THE
SECRETARIAT IN CONSULTATION WITH STAKEHOLDERS...

SIPDIS

(10) ...(I) OBSERVERS MUST BE NON-PARTISAN AT ALL TIMES
AND SEEN TO BE SO...

END QUOTE.

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ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 DINT-00 DODE-00
DOEE-00 DOTE-00 WHA-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EAP-00 EB-00
EUR-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00
LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OMB-01
OPIC-01 PA-00 PC-01 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00
SP-00 SSO-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 IIP-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00
DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /008W
-------------- 39F882 051418Z /38
O 051327Z NOV 01
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0206
INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY CANBERRA
AMEMBASSY ABUJA
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY MADRID
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA
AMEMBASSY PARIS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 04 OF 04 HARARE 003303

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF, AF/S, AND AF/EPS
USAID FOR AFR/SA
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY
PARIS FOR NEARY
BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 03303 04 OF 04 051418Z

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/01/11
TAGS: PGOV PINR ZI
SUBJECT: IMPROVING AND OBSERVING THE ELECTION PROCESS
IN ZIMBABWE

SULLIVAN

CONFIDENTIAL

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