EU'S NEXT STEPS ON ZIMBABWE

C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 003263

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER
BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU
LONDON FOR GURNEY
PARIS FOR NEARY
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER

E.O. 12958: DECL. 10/31/11
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM ZI
SUBJECT: EU'S NEXT STEPS ON ZIMBABWE

REF: USEU BRUSSELS 5442

CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF MATT HARRINGTON. REASONS:
1.5 (B) AND (D).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) THE EU WILL FORMALLY NOTIFY THE GOVERNMENT OF ZIMBABWE
WITHIN 15 DAYS OF ITS DECISION TO MOVE TO ARTICLE 96 DISCUSSIONS
UNDER THE COTONOU AGREEMENT. THE GOZ WILL HAVE 15 DAYS TO DECIDE
WHETHER TO PARTICIPATE, THEN UP TO 60 DAYS (I.E. LATE JANUARY) TO
ADDRESS EU CONCERNS IN FIVE BROAD CATEGORIES. ABSENT GOZ PROGRESS
AT THE END OF THIS PERIOD, THE EU CAN REDUCE OR ELIMINATE
DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE OR SUSPEND TRADE PRIVILEGES, ALTHOUGH THE
EC DELEGATION INFORMED US THAT THE LATTER HAS NEVER BEEN DONE AND
THE EU FEARS THE FORMER MIGHT EXACERBATE ZIMBABWE'S ECONOMIC
PROBLEMS. IMPOSITION OF SMART SANCTIONS IS NOT AN OPTION UNDER
THE COTONOU AGREEMENT. ALTHOUGH THE GOZ'S INITIAL REACTION WAS
SUBDUED, FOREIGN MINISTER MUDENGE SUBSEQUENTLY TOUGHENED HIS
RHETORIC, LASHING OUT AT THE EU'S ISSUANCE OF "THREATS AND
ULTIMATUMS" AND CRITICIZING THE UNITED KINGDOM FOR LEADING THE EU
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 03 HARARE 03263 010010Z
ASTRAY. END SUMMARY.

EU'S MOVE TO ARTICLE 96 DIALOGUE
--------------


2. (U) REFTEL REPORTS THE OCTOBER 29 DECISION BY THE EU'S GENERAL
AFFAIRS COUNCIL (GAC) TO MOVE TO A TOUGHER POLITICAL DIALOGUE WITH
ZIMBABWE UNDER ARTICLE 96 OF THE COTONOU AGREEMENT. POLITICAL
SECTION CHIEF MET ON OCTOBER 31 WITH ALEX KREMER, DEPUTY HEAD OF
DELEGATION FOR THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION IN HARARE, TO DISCUSS THE
IMPLICATIONS OF THE GAC MOVE.

PROCESS
--------------


3. (C) ACCORDING TO KREMER, THE GOVERNMENT OF ZIMBABWE LIKELY
WOULD NOT BE FORMALLY NOTIFIED OF THE GAC DECISION UNTIL LATER IN
THE WEEK. THE OFFICIAL LETTER OF NOTIFICATION IS CURRENTLY BEING
DRAFTED IN BRUSSELS EXPLAINING THE DECISION AND CONVEYING THE
TERMS OF REFERENCE FOR THE PROPOSED ARTICLE 96 DIALOGUE. (NOTE:
THAT LETTER IS NOT LIKELY TO BE READY UNTIL ABOUT NOVEMBER 12,
ACCORDING TO EU COMMISSIONER MOSCA. END NOTE.) AFTER IT RECEIVES
THE LETTER, THE GOZ WILL HAVE 15 DAYS TO DECIDE WHETHER TO
PARTICIPATE. KREMER PREDICTED THAT THE ANSWER ALMOST CERTAINLY
WOULD BE "YES" BUT PROBABLY WOULD NOT BE CONVEYED UNTIL DAY 14 OR

15. THE EU AND ZIMBABWE WOULD THEN ENGAGE IN A DIALOGUE -- WHICH
CAN LAST UP TO 60 DAYS, BUT NO LONGER -- INTENDED TO ACHIEVE
PROGRESS ON THE FIVE BROAD CATEGORIES OF CONCERN DESCRIBED IN THE
GAC'S DECISION: ENDING POLITICAL VIOLENCE, ELECTION MONITORING,
FREEDOM OF THE MEDIA, INDEPENDENCE OF THE JUDICIARY, AND ENDING
ILLEGAL OCCUPATION OF PROPERTIES. THE EC DELEGATION IN HARARE HAS
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 04 HARARE 03263 010010Z
RECOMMENDED THAT THE EU SHARE WITH THE GOZ SPECIFIC BENCHMARKS TO
BE USED IN MEASURING PROGRESS, AND THAT THE BENCHMARKS BE LINKED
TO THE SUBSTANCE OF THE ABUJA AGREEMENT. KREMER NOTED THAT NO
FINAL DECISION HAD BEEN MADE ON THAT ISSUE, AS "SOME IN BRUSSELS"
ARE CONCERNED THAT SHARING EXPLICIT BENCHMARKS MIGHT APPEAR TOO
MUCH LIKE IMPOSING DEMANDS, AND THUS MIGHT NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO
PRODUCTIVE DIALOGUE. KREMER SPECULATED THAT THE DIALOGUE WOULD
MOST LIKELY BE CONDUCTED AT THE MINISTERIAL LEVEL. THIS MAKES IT
EASIER FOR THE GOZ TO DRAW THE PROCESS OUT, AND THE EU DOES NOT
WANT THE LEVEL OF DIALOGUE TO BE USED BY THE GOZ AS AN EXCUSE FOR
LACK OF SUCCESS.

"APPROPRIATE MEASURES"
--------------


4. (C) KREMER NOTED THAT, IF THE GOZ DECLINES TO PARTICIPATE IN
THE DIALOGUE OR PARTICIPATES, BUT FAILS TO ADDRESS GENUINELY THE
FIVE AREAS OF CONCERN DURING THE 60-DAY PERIOD, THE EU CAN THEN
TAKE "APPROPRIATE MEASURES." SUCH MEASURES, ACCORDING TO KREMER,
COULD INCLUDE REDUCTIONS IN ASSISTANCE OR SUSPENSION OF TRADE
PRIVILEGES, OR BOTH. HE DOUBTED THAT THERE WOULD BE AN APPETITE
WITHIN THE EU FOR IMPOSITION OF TOUGH MEASURES, EVEN IF LITTLE
PROGRESS IS ACHIEVED. TRADE PRIVILEGES, HE SAID, HAVE NEVER BEEN
SUSPENDED, EITHER UNDER THE COTONOU AGREEMENT OR ITS LOME
PREDECESSORS. IN ADDITION, THERE IS CONCERN THAT SUSPENDING AID

-- MOST OF WHICH GOES TO BASIC EDUCATION, COMMUNITY LEVEL
DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMS, AND COMBATTING AIDS -- MIGHT WORSEN THE
ALREADY DIFFICULT ECONOMIC PLIGHT OF ORDINARY ZIMBABWEANS. KREMER
POINTED OUT THAT IMPOSITION OF SO-CALLED SMART SANCTIONS,
TARGETING PRESIDENT MUGABE, HIS INNER CIRCLE, AND THEIR FAMILIES,
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 05 HARARE 03263 010010Z
IS NOT AN OPTION UNDER THE COTONOU AGREEMENT. INDIVIDUAL EU
MEMBERS, NOT THE EC ITSELF, WOULD HAVE TO TAKE THE INITIATIVE IN
PURSUING SUCH AN APPROACH UNDER THE EU'S COMMON FOREIGN AND
SECURITY POLICY.

LIKELY SCENARIOS
--------------


5. (C) ASKED HOW HE THOUGHT THE ARTICLE 96 PROCESS WOULD UNFOLD,
KREMER OFFERED TWO POSSIBLE SCENARIOS. THE GOZ WOULD AGREE TO THE
DIALOGUE, WHICH WOULD ACHIEVE NO PROGRESS FOR 59 DAYS. ON THE
60TH DAY, THE GOZ WOULD THROW THE EU A BONE, SUCH AS ISSUING AN
INVITATION TO ELECTION OBSERVERS, FORCING THE EU TO POSTPONE ANY
DECISION ON SANCTIONS. A SECOND POSSIBILITY IS THAT THE GOZ TAKES
NO STEPS WHATSOEVER TO ADDRESS EU CONCERNS, CAUSING THE EU TO
SUSPEND ONE OR TWO AID PROJECTS, BUT TO AVOID A LARGE-SCALE
ASSISTANCE CUTOFF, FOR THE REASONS ELABORATED IN PARAGRAPH 4.

GOVERNMENT'S REACTION
--------------


6. (C) ALTHOUGH THE EU HAS NOT YET FORMALLY NOTIFIED THE GOZ OF
ITS DECISION ON ARTICLE 96, THE MOVE HAS BEEN WIDELY COVERED IN
THE LOCAL PRESS. THE INITIAL PUBLIC REACTION OF FOREIGN MINISTER
MUDENGE, THE GOZ'S PRIMARY INTERLOCUTOR WITH THE EU OF LATE, WAS
SURPRISINGLY SUBDUED. IN THE OCTOBER 30 EDITION OF THE GOZ-
CONTROLLED "THE HERALD," MUDENGE CALLED THE EU DECISION
"PROCEDURAL," AND SAID "I AM READY TO DISCUSS WITH THEM UNDER
ARTICLE 96. ZIMBABWE IS READY FOR THE CONSULTATIONS...AT THE
MOMENT WE GO WITH AN OPEN MIND." THE FOREIGN MINISTER'S RHETORIC
TOUGHENED CONSIDERABLY THE FOLLOWING DAY, HOWEVER, AS MUDENGE
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 06 HARARE 03263 010010Z
LASHED OUT AT THE EU FOR ISSUING "THREATS AND ULTIMATUMS" AND
BLAMED THE BRITISH FOR MOBILIZING THE EU AGAINST ZIMBABWE. "WE
WILL NOT ACT ON THE BASIS OF THREATS AND ULTIMATUMS," HE SAID, AND
STRESSED THAT FOREIGN OBSERVERS WOULD NOT BE PERMITTED TO MONITOR
ZIMBABWE'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, BUT ONLY TO OBSERVE IT. KREMER
JOKED TO US THAT MUDENGE'S CONCILIATORY INITIAL REMARKS LIKELY
PRECEDED CONSULTATIONS WITH PRESIDENT MUGABE.

COMMENT
--------------


7. (C) WE SHARE KREMER'S ASSESSMENT THAT THE GOZ LIKELY WILL
AGREE TO THE ARTICLE 96 DIALOGUE, BUT WILL THEN DELAY ADDRESSING
THE EU'S CONCERNS AS LONG AS POSSIBLE, PERHAPS MAKING A MINOR
CONCESSION OR TWO AT THE LAST MINUTE. IT DOES NOT APPEAR AS IF
THE EU HAS MANY POLICY OPTIONS ON WHICH IT CAN DRAW IF THE 60-DAY
DIALOGUE FAILS COMPLETELY. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT MOST
DEVELOPMENTS ABOUT WHICH THE EU IS CONCERNED ARE KEY ELEMENTS OF
THE GOZ'S ELECTORAL STRATEGY, AREAS THE GOVERNMENT WILL BE LOATHE
TO CHANGE UNTIL AFTER ELECTIONS. THE ABOVE NOTWITHSTANDING, THE
EU DECISION INCREASES PRESSURE ON ZIMBABWE AND MAKES CLEARER TO
ALL -- INCLUDING THE ZIMBABWEAN PUBLIC -- THAT THE COUNTRY'S
DISASTROUS COURSE IS BROADLY CONDEMNED.


8. (C) TIME IS WORKING IN THE GOZ'S FAVOR, SINCE THE ARTICLE 96
TIMELINE WILL NOT HAVE RUN ITS COURSE UNTIL LATE JANUARY WITH
ELECTIONS LOOMING, POSSIBLY JUST WEEKS AWAY. EU COMMISSIONER
MOSCA TOLD THE AMBASSADOR SHE RECOGNIZED THAT THE 60-DAY PERIOD
ENDS TOO LATE FOR TIMELY PRESSURE ON ELECTION ISSUES, AND SHE WAS
OPEN TO FINDING OTHER MEANS FOR PRESSING FOR EARLY AND EFFECTIVE
ELECTION OBSERVATION AND REDUCTION OF POLITICAL VIOLENCE. IN THE
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 07 HARARE 03263 010010Z
MEANTIME, THE GOZ STRATEGY APPEARS TO BE "DIVIDE AND CONQUER,"
DEMONIZING THE BRITISH FOR LEADING THEIR CONTINENTAL BRETHREN
ASTRAY. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE GOZ ATTEMPT TO PORTRAY AN
AFRICAN/NON-AFRICAN SPLIT IN THE COMMONWEALTH OVER ABUJA
IMPLEMENTATION, A PLOY THAT HAS FOOLED NO ONE. WE DO NOT THINK
THAT IT PLAYS WELL EVEN ON MAIN STREET HERE.

SULLIVAN

CONFIDENTIAL

>
@@@OASYS@@@

CONFIDENTIAL PTQ1817

PAGE 01 HARARE 03263 01 OF 02 312223Z
ACTION EUR-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AF-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00
SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 UTED-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00
INR-00 IO-00 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 NSCE-00
OIC-02 OIG-03 OMB-01 PA-00 PC-01 PM-00 PRS-00
ACE-00 P-00 SCT-00 SP-00 IRM-00 SSO-00 SS-00
STR-00 TEST-00 TRSE-00 T-00 USIE-00 R-00 EPAE-00
SNIS-00 NISC-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-00 DRL-02 G-00
NFAT-00 SAS-00 /011W
-------------- 38357E 312223Z /69
P 311535Z OCT 01
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0167
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY CANBERRA
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
AMEMBASSY ABUJA
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA
AMEMBASSY KINGSTON
AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM
AMEMBASSY OSLO
AMEMBASSY COPENHAGEN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 003263

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 03263 01 OF 02 312223Z
BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU
LONDON FOR GURNEY
PARIS FOR NEARY
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER

E.O. 12958: DECL. 10/31/11
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM ZI
SUBJECT: EU'S NEXT STEPS ON ZIMBABWE

REF: USEU BRUSSELS 5442

CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF MATT HARRINGTON. REASONS:
1.5 (B) AND (D).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) THE EU WILL FORMALLY NOTIFY THE GOVERNMENT OF ZIMBABWE
WITHIN 15 DAYS OF ITS DECISION TO MOVE TO ARTICLE 96 DISCUSSIONS
UNDER THE COTONOU AGREEMENT. THE GOZ WILL HAVE 15 DAYS TO DECIDE
WHETHER TO PARTICIPATE, THEN UP TO 60 DAYS (I.E. LATE JANUARY) TO
ADDRESS EU CONCERNS IN FIVE BROAD CATEGORIES. ABSENT GOZ PROGRESS
AT THE END OF THIS PERIOD, THE EU CAN REDUCE OR ELIMINATE
DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE OR SUSPEND TRADE PRIVILEGES, ALTHOUGH THE
EC DELEGATION INFORMED US THAT THE LATTER HAS NEVER BEEN DONE AND
THE EU FEARS THE FORMER MIGHT EXACERBATE ZIMBABWE'S ECONOMIC
PROBLEMS. IMPOSITION OF SMART SANCTIONS IS NOT AN OPTION UNDER
THE COTONOU AGREEMENT. ALTHOUGH THE GOZ'S INITIAL REACTION WAS
SUBDUED, FOREIGN MINISTER MUDENGE SUBSEQUENTLY TOUGHENED HIS
RHETORIC, LASHING OUT AT THE EU'S ISSUANCE OF "THREATS AND
ULTIMATUMS" AND CRITICIZING THE UNITED KINGDOM FOR LEADING THE EU
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 03 HARARE 03263 01 OF 02 312223Z
ASTRAY. END SUMMARY.

EU'S MOVE TO ARTICLE 96 DIALOGUE
--------------


2. (U) REFTEL REPORTS THE OCTOBER 29 DECISION BY THE EU'S GENERAL
AFFAIRS COUNCIL (GAC) TO MOVE TO A TOUGHER POLITICAL DIALOGUE WITH
ZIMBABWE UNDER ARTICLE 96 OF THE COTONOU AGREEMENT. POLITICAL
SECTION CHIEF MET ON OCTOBER 31 WITH ALEX KREMER, DEPUTY HEAD OF
DELEGATION FOR THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION IN HARARE, TO DISCUSS THE
IMPLICATIONS OF THE GAC MOVE.

PROCESS
--------------


3. (C) ACCORDING TO KREMER, THE GOVERNMENT OF ZIMBABWE LIKELY
WOULD NOT BE FORMALLY NOTIFIED OF THE GAC DECISION UNTIL LATER IN
THE WEEK. THE OFFICIAL LETTER OF NOTIFICATION IS CURRENTLY BEING
DRAFTED IN BRUSSELS EXPLAINING THE DECISION AND CONVEYING THE
TERMS OF REFERENCE FOR THE PROPOSED ARTICLE 96 DIALOGUE. (NOTE:
THAT LETTER IS NOT LIKELY TO BE READY UNTIL ABOUT NOVEMBER 12,
ACCORDING TO EU COMMISSIONER MOSCA. END NOTE.) AFTER IT RECEIVES
THE LETTER, THE GOZ WILL HAVE 15 DAYS TO DECIDE WHETHER TO
PARTICIPATE. KREMER PREDICTED THAT THE ANSWER ALMOST CERTAINLY
WOULD BE "YES" BUT PROBABLY WOULD NOT BE CONVEYED UNTIL DAY 14 OR

15. THE EU AND ZIMBABWE WOULD THEN ENGAGE IN A DIALOGUE -- WHICH
CAN LAST UP TO 60 DAYS, BUT NO LONGER -- INTENDED TO ACHIEVE
PROGRESS ON THE FIVE BROAD CATEGORIES OF CONCERN DESCRIBED IN THE
GAC'S DECISION: ENDING POLITICAL VIOLENCE, ELECTION MONITORING,
FREEDOM OF THE MEDIA, INDEPENDENCE OF THE JUDICIARY, AND ENDING
ILLEGAL OCCUPATION OF PROPERTIES. THE EC DELEGATION IN HARARE HAS
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 04 HARARE 03263 01 OF 02 312223Z
RECOMMENDED THAT THE EU SHARE WITH THE GOZ SPECIFIC BENCHMARKS TO
BE USED IN MEASURING PROGRESS, AND THAT THE BENCHMARKS BE LINKED
TO THE SUBSTANCE OF THE ABUJA AGREEMENT. KREMER NOTED THAT NO
FINAL DECISION HAD BEEN MADE ON THAT ISSUE, AS "SOME IN BRUSSELS"
ARE CONCERNED THAT SHARING EXPLICIT BENCHMARKS MIGHT APPEAR TOO
MUCH LIKE IMPOSING DEMANDS, AND THUS MIGHT NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO
PRODUCTIVE DIALOGUE. KREMER SPECULATED THAT THE DIALOGUE WOULD
MOST LIKELY BE CONDUCTED AT THE MINISTERIAL LEVEL. THIS MAKES IT
EASIER FOR THE GOZ TO DRAW THE PROCESS OUT, AND THE EU DOES NOT
WANT THE LEVEL OF DIALOGUE TO BE USED BY THE GOZ AS AN EXCUSE FOR
LACK OF SUCCESS.

"APPROPRIATE MEASURES"
--------------


4. (C) KREMER NOTED THAT, IF THE GOZ DECLINES TO PARTICIPATE IN
THE DIALOGUE OR PARTICIPATES, BUT FAILS TO ADDRESS GENUINELY THE
FIVE AREAS OF CONCERN DURING THE 60-DAY PERIOD, THE EU CAN THEN
TAKE "APPROPRIATE MEASURES." SUCH MEASURES, ACCORDING TO KREMER,
COULD INCLUDE REDUCTIONS IN ASSISTANCE OR SUSPENSION OF TRADE
PRIVILEGES, OR BOTH. HE DOUBTED THAT THERE WOULD BE AN APPETITE
WITHIN THE EU FOR IMPOSITION OF TOUGH MEASURES, EVEN IF LITTLE
PROGRESS IS ACHIEVED. TRADE PRIVILEGES, HE SAID, HAVE NEVER BEEN
SUSPENDED, EITHER UNDER THE COTONOU AGREEMENT OR ITS LOME
PREDECESSORS. IN ADDITION, THERE IS CONCERN THAT SUSPENDING AID

CONFIDENTIAL

CONFIDENTIAL PTQ1818

PAGE 01 HARARE 03263 02 OF 02 312223Z
ACTION EUR-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AF-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00
SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 UTED-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00
INR-00 IO-00 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 NSCE-00
OIC-02 OIG-03 OMB-01 PA-00 PC-01 PM-00 PRS-00
ACE-00 P-00 SCT-00 SP-00 IRM-00 SSO-00 SS-00
STR-00 TEST-00 TRSE-00 T-00 USIE-00 R-00 EPAE-00
SNIS-00 NISC-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-00 DRL-02 G-00
NFAT-00 SAS-00 /011W
-------------- 383582 312224Z /69
P 311535Z OCT 01
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0168
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY CANBERRA
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
AMEMBASSY ABUJA
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA
AMEMBASSY KINGSTON
AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM
AMEMBASSY OSLO
AMEMBASSY COPENHAGEN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 003263

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 03263 02 OF 02 312223Z
BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU
LONDON FOR GURNEY
PARIS FOR NEARY
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER

E.O. 12958: DECL. 10/31/11
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM ZI
SUBJECT: EU'S NEXT STEPS ON ZIMBABWE

-- MOST OF WHICH GOES TO BASIC EDUCATION, COMMUNITY LEVEL
DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMS, AND COMBATTING AIDS -- MIGHT WORSEN THE
ALREADY DIFFICULT ECONOMIC PLIGHT OF ORDINARY ZIMBABWEANS. KREMER
POINTED OUT THAT IMPOSITION OF SO-CALLED SMART SANCTIONS,
TARGETING PRESIDENT MUGABE, HIS INNER CIRCLE, AND THEIR FAMILIES,
IS NOT AN OPTION UNDER THE COTONOU AGREEMENT. INDIVIDUAL EU
MEMBERS, NOT THE EC ITSELF, WOULD HAVE TO TAKE THE INITIATIVE IN
PURSUING SUCH AN APPROACH UNDER THE EU'S COMMON FOREIGN AND
SECURITY POLICY.

LIKELY SCENARIOS
--------------


5. (C) ASKED HOW HE THOUGHT THE ARTICLE 96 PROCESS WOULD UNFOLD,
KREMER OFFERED TWO POSSIBLE SCENARIOS. THE GOZ WOULD AGREE TO THE
DIALOGUE, WHICH WOULD ACHIEVE NO PROGRESS FOR 59 DAYS. ON THE
60TH DAY, THE GOZ WOULD THROW THE EU A BONE, SUCH AS ISSUING AN
INVITATION TO ELECTION OBSERVERS, FORCING THE EU TO POSTPONE ANY
DECISION ON SANCTIONS. A SECOND POSSIBILITY IS THAT THE GOZ TAKES
NO STEPS WHATSOEVER TO ADDRESS EU CONCERNS, CAUSING THE EU TO
SUSPEND ONE OR TWO AID PROJECTS, BUT TO AVOID A LARGE-SCALE
ASSISTANCE CUTOFF, FOR THE REASONS ELABORATED IN PARAGRAPH 4.
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 03 HARARE 03263 02 OF 02 312223Z

GOVERNMENT'S REACTION
--------------


6. (C) ALTHOUGH THE EU HAS NOT YET FORMALLY NOTIFIED THE GOZ OF
ITS DECISION ON ARTICLE 96, THE MOVE HAS BEEN WIDELY COVERED IN
THE LOCAL PRESS. THE INITIAL PUBLIC REACTION OF FOREIGN MINISTER
MUDENGE, THE GOZ'S PRIMARY INTERLOCUTOR WITH THE EU OF LATE, WAS
SURPRISINGLY SUBDUED. IN THE OCTOBER 30 EDITION OF THE GOZ-
CONTROLLED "THE HERALD," MUDENGE CALLED THE EU DECISION
"PROCEDURAL," AND SAID "I AM READY TO DISCUSS WITH THEM UNDER
ARTICLE 96. ZIMBABWE IS READY FOR THE CONSULTATIONS...AT THE
MOMENT WE GO WITH AN OPEN MIND." THE FOREIGN MINISTER'S RHETORIC
TOUGHENED CONSIDERABLY THE FOLLOWING DAY, HOWEVER, AS MUDENGE
LASHED OUT AT THE EU FOR ISSUING "THREATS AND ULTIMATUMS" AND
BLAMED THE BRITISH FOR MOBILIZING THE EU AGAINST ZIMBABWE. "WE
WILL NOT ACT ON THE BASIS OF THREATS AND ULTIMATUMS," HE SAID, AND
STRESSED THAT FOREIGN OBSERVERS WOULD NOT BE PERMITTED TO MONITOR
ZIMBABWE'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, BUT ONLY TO OBSERVE IT. KREMER
JOKED TO US THAT MUDENGE'S CONCILIATORY INITIAL REMARKS LIKELY
PRECEDED CONSULTATIONS WITH PRESIDENT MUGABE.

COMMENT
--------------


7. (C) WE SHARE KREMER'S ASSESSMENT THAT THE GOZ LIKELY WILL
AGREE TO THE ARTICLE 96 DIALOGUE, BUT WILL THEN DELAY ADDRESSING
THE EU'S CONCERNS AS LONG AS POSSIBLE, PERHAPS MAKING A MINOR
CONCESSION OR TWO AT THE LAST MINUTE. IT DOES NOT APPEAR AS IF
THE EU HAS MANY POLICY OPTIONS ON WHICH IT CAN DRAW IF THE 60-DAY
DIALOGUE FAILS COMPLETELY. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT MOST
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 04 HARARE 03263 02 OF 02 312223Z
DEVELOPMENTS ABOUT WHICH THE EU IS CONCERNED ARE KEY ELEMENTS OF
THE GOZ'S ELECTORAL STRATEGY, AREAS THE GOVERNMENT WILL BE LOATHE
TO CHANGE UNTIL AFTER ELECTIONS. THE ABOVE NOTWITHSTANDING, THE
EU DECISION INCREASES PRESSURE ON ZIMBABWE AND MAKES CLEARER TO
ALL -- INCLUDING THE ZIMBABWEAN PUBLIC -- THAT THE COUNTRY'S
DISASTROUS COURSE IS BROADLY CONDEMNED.


8. (C) TIME IS WORKING IN THE GOZ'S FAVOR, SINCE THE ARTICLE 96
TIMELINE WILL NOT HAVE RUN ITS COURSE UNTIL LATE JANUARY WITH
ELECTIONS LOOMING, POSSIBLY JUST WEEKS AWAY. EU COMMISSIONER
MOSCA TOLD THE AMBASSADOR SHE RECOGNIZED THAT THE 60-DAY PERIOD
ENDS TOO LATE FOR TIMELY PRESSURE ON ELECTION ISSUES, AND SHE WAS
OPEN TO FINDING OTHER MEANS FOR PRESSING FOR EARLY AND EFFECTIVE
ELECTION OBSERVATION AND REDUCTION OF POLITICAL VIOLENCE. IN THE
MEANTIME, THE GOZ STRATEGY APPEARS TO BE "DIVIDE AND CONQUER,"
DEMONIZING THE BRITISH FOR LEADING THEIR CONTINENTAL BRETHREN
ASTRAY. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE GOZ ATTEMPT TO PORTRAY AN
AFRICAN/NON-AFRICAN SPLIT IN THE COMMONWEALTH OVER ABUJA
IMPLEMENTATION, A PLOY THAT HAS FOOLED NO ONE. WE DO NOT THINK
THAT IT PLAYS WELL EVEN ON MAIN STREET HERE.

SULLIVAN

CONFIDENTIAL

>