ABUJA II: COMMONWEALTH COMMITTEE MEETING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 HARARE 003240

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF AND AF/S
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR FRAZER
LONDON FOR GURNEY
PARIS FOR NEARY
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/30/06
TAGS: PREL PHUM EAGR EAID PGOV ZI
SUBJECT: ABUJA II: COMMONWEALTH COMMITTEE MEETING
NEITHER BREAKS DOWN NOR BREAKS THROUGH

REF: ABUJA 2253

CLASSIFIED BY DCM REWHITEHEAD DUE TO 1.5 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY. THE OCTOBER 25 TO 27 VISIT BY
REPRESENTATIVES OF SEVEN COMMONWEALTH (CW) COUNTRIES AND
THE CW SECRETARY-GENERAL REVIEWED PROGRESS ON
COMMITMENTS AGREED TO BY THE GOZ ON LAND REFORM, RULE OF
LAW, AND ATTENDANT ISSUES AS OUTLINED IN THE ABUJA
AGREEMENT OF SEPTEMBER 6 (REFTEL). OUR GLEANINGS FROM
DIPLOMATIC CONTACTS, AND SPECIFICALLY HARARE BASED CW
DIPLOMATS WHO WERE INVOLVED IN THE VISIT, REVEAL GENERAL
SKEPTICISM AMONG THE CW DELEGATION THAT THE GOZ HAS
HONORED ITS ABUJA COMMITMENTS. GOZ ATTEMPTS TO STAGE-
MANGE THE VISIT DID NOT SUCCEED, AND THE CW COMMITTEE
HEARD THE VIEWS OF A BROAD RANGE OF ZIMBABWEANS. THE
VISIT HAD SEVERAL CONTENTIOUS MOMENTS, THE WORST DURING
DIFFICULT NEGOTIATIONS OVER THE FINAL COMMUNIQUE. THE
COMPROMISE RESULTED IN A DOCUMENT THAT PLEASED NO ONE
BUT ALLOWED BOTH SIDES TO CLAIM SOME DEGREE OF SUCCESS
AND THUS KEEP THE ABUJA PROCESS ALIVE.


2. (C) POSITIVE OUTCOMES FOR THE CW INCLUDE CONTINUING
THE DIALOGUE WITH THE GOZ AND VISIBLE ENGAGEMENT OF ITS
OPPONENTS, RULE OF LAW ISSUES STILL ON THE AGENDA, AND
AGREEMENT TO AN IMPENDING UNDP ASSESSMENT OF LAND REFORM
AS A MEANS OF MONITORING ABUJA COMPLIANCE. FOR ITS
PART, THE GOZ AVOIDED FURTHER ISOLATION FROM THE
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY, RESISTED EFFORTS TO PIN IT DOWN
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ON POLITICAL/ELECTORAL ISSUES, AND MAINTAINED ITS
DUBIOUS INTERPRETATION THAT THE GOZ OWNS LAND ONCE THE
LAND IS LISTED AND THEREFORE IS OPERATING WITHIN THE
RULE OF LAW. FROM THE U.S. PERSPECTIVE, THE THREE-DAY
WALTZ AROUND ABUJA FELL SHORT IN A NUMBER OF AREAS,
INCLUDING THE CRUCIAL ISSUE OF ELECTION OBSERVATION. WE
RECOMMEND THAT THE DEPARTMENT FOLLOW UP WITH NIGERIAN
PRESIDENT OBASANJO, THE GODFATHER OF THE ABUJA
AGREEMENT, IN WASHINGTON THIS WEEK ABOUT OUR CONCERNS
THAT ILLEGAL LAND INVASIONS, VIOLENCE AND HUMAN RIGHTS
VIOLATIONS, AND A VIABLE ELECTORAL ENVIRONMENT HAVE NOT
BEEN SUCCESSFULLY ADDRESSED. END SUMMARY.

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INSIDERS' VIEWS OF ABUJA II
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3. (C) CANADIAN DEPUTY HIGH COMMISSIONER RON WILLSON
AND UK COUNTERPART DIANNE CORNER DEBRIEFED G-8 DEPUTIES
OCTOBER 29 ON THE ABUJA II MEETING IN HARARE. THEY
DESCRIBED A DISORGANIZED AND SOMETIMES CONTENTIOUS
VISIT. WILLSON, WHO ADMITTED THAT CANADIAN DEPUTY
MINISTER KILGOUR HAD TAKEN THE HARDEST LINE WITH GOZ,
TERMED THE MEETING "NOT A RESOUNDING SUCCESS" WITH
"MINIMAL RESULTS," A CHARACTERIZATION THAT CORNER
SECONDED. WILLSON SAID THAT THE VISIT ALMOST FOUNDERED
IN ITS FINAL STAGES WHEN THERE WAS A NEAR BREAKDOWN ON
THE NEGOTIATED COMMUNIQUE OVER SEVERAL ISSUES. AS A
RESULT OF THIS THE CW DID NOT GET THE FOLLOWING:

-- A MENTION IN THE COMMUNIQUE OF ELECTIONS OBSERVERS,
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PAGE 04 HARARE 03240 01 OF 04 291644Z
AGAINST WHICH THE GOZ SIDE ARGUED OVER THE ISSUE OF
SOVEREIGNTY.

-- AN INVITATION FROM THE GOZ FOR CW ELECTION OBSERVERS,
AS REQUIRED IN CW GUIDELINES. THE GOZ SIDE DECLINED A
SUGGESTION THAT THE GOZ "ASK THE CW TO REQUEST THE GOZ
TO PERMIT CW PARTICIPATION."

-- NO CW MONITORING MECHANISM WAS AGREED, LEAVING ABUJA
FOLLOW UP AT THE CW MINISTERIAL LEVEL, WHERE THE GOZ
APPEARS TO PREFER IT, ALTHOUGH A NOVEMBER 14 UNDP
MISSION WAS AGREED TO "HELP THE GOZ TO FULLY COMPLY"
WITH ABUJA.


4. (C) WILLSON NOTED THAT THERE IS POSSIBLE FUTURE
MOVEMENT ON SOME OF THESE POINTS. LEGAL AFFAIRS
MINISTER CHINAMASA HAD INFORMED THE CW DELEGATION THAT
HE WOULD BE PRESENTING TO THE CABINET WITHIN THREE WEEKS
A POLICY PAPER THAT WOULD DEFINE THE ROLES OF
INTERNATIONAL ELECTION OBSERVERS AND DOMESTIC ELECTION
MONITORS. HOWEVER, CHINAMASA WAS EVASIVE WHEN CW

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ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AGRE-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 INL-00
DODE-00 WHA-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EAP-00 EB-00 VC-00
TEDE-00 INR-00 LAB-01 VCE-00 NSAE-00 CAEX-01 SSO-00
SS-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /004W
-------------- 36D0D1 291645Z /38
O 291539Z OCT 01
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0145
INFO AMEMBASSY ABUJA IMMEDIATE
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY
NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY CANBERRA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY KINGSTON PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 04 HARARE 003240

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF AND AF/S
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR FRAZER
LONDON FOR GURNEY
PARIS FOR NEARY
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/30/06
TAGS: PREL PHUM EAGR EAID PGOV ZI
SUBJECT: ABUJA II: COMMONWEALTH COMMITTEE MEETING
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PAGE 02 HARARE 03240 02 OF 04 291644Z
NEITHER BREAKS DOWN NOR BREAKS THROUGH

SECRETARY-GENERAL MACKINNON REQUESTED SPECIFIC DETAILS

SIPDIS
ON THE PRE-ELECTORAL TIME FRAME IN WHICH
OBSERVERS/MONITORS COULD BEGIN THEIR WORK. (WILLSON
ADDED IN AN ASIDE THAT THE NEW CANADIAN HIGH
COMMISSIONER TO ABUJA HAD RAISED THE ISSUE OF CW
OBSERVERS FOR ZIMBABWE WITH OBASANJO LAST WEEK DURING
THE PRESENTATION OF CREDENTIALS. OBASANJO REPLIED THAT
HE HAD RECENTLY SPOKEN TO MUGABE, WHO HAD TOLD HIM THAT
HE DID NOT WANT INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS BUT MIGHT
CONSIDER A COMMONWEALTH OBSERVATION INITIATIVE.)


5. (C) CORNER NOTED THAT THE CW HAD ALSO PREVAILED ON
SEVERAL POINTS. COINCIDENT WITH THE CW VISIT, THE GOZ
HAD AGREED TO AN ASSESSMENT VISIT BY A UNDP TEAM THAT
WOULD EXAMINE THE LAND REFORM SITUATION ON THE GROUND.
IN A MEETING WITH THE CW DELEGATION, UNDP RESREP VICTOR
ANGELO HAD AGREED THAT UNDP WOULD BE ABLE TO PROVIDE THE
MONITORING MECHANISM FOR THE ABUJA AGREEMENT (IN LIEU OF
A CW MECHANISM) THAT WOULD LOOK AT ALL ASPECTS OF THE
AGREEMENT, NOT SIMPLY LAND REFORM. CORNER CAUTIONED
THAT (TO THE BEST OF HER KNOWLEDGE) THE GOZ AND UNDP HAD
NOT YET MUTUALLY AGREED UPON TERMS OF REFERENCE FOR THE
ASSESSMENT. (ANGELO INFORMED THE AMBASSADOR THAT THE
ASSESSMENT TEAM WILL ARRIVE ON NOVEMBER 14.) CORNER
ADDED THAT DESPITE INITIAL GOZ ATTEMPT TO PACK THE
SCHEDULE WITH ITS SUPPORTERS, THE CW DELEGATION HAD
ULTIMATELY MET WITH AND HEARD THE CONCERNS OF
REPRESENTATIVES OF CIVIL SOCIETY, INDEPENDENT
JOURNALISTS, AND OTHER NON-GOVERNMENTAL GROUPS.
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6. (U) IN ADDITION TO INITIAL MEETINGS WITH MUGABE,
CABINET MEMBERS, AND THE PARLIAMENTARY COMMITTEE ON LAND
REFORM, THE CW COMMITTEE RECEIVED REPORTS FROM THE
FOLLOWING GROUPS AND ORGANIZATIONS.

-- COUNCIL OF CHIEFS
-- COMMERCIAL FARMERS UNION
ZIMBABWE JOINT RESETTLEMENT INITIATIVE
-- INDIGENOUS COMMERCIAL FARMERS UNION
-- UNDPO
-- ZIMBABWE LIBERATION WAR VETERANS ASSOCIATION
-- MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE
-- ZANU-PF
-- ZANU (NDONGA)
-- CHURCH LEADERS
-- NANGO (NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF NGO'S),REPRESENTING
AMANI TRUST, ZIMBABWE HUMAN RIGHTS FOUNDATION,
AFFIRMATIVE ACTION GROUP, NATIONAL CONSTITUTIONAL
ASSEMBLY, TRANSPARENCY INTERNATIONAL, CRISIS IN
ZIMBABWE, INDIGENOUS BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT CENTER,
NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION, ZIMBABWE TOBACCO
MERCHANTS ASSOCIATION
-- STATE AND INDEPENDENT MEDIA REPRESENTATIVES
-- THE ELECTORAL SUPERVISORY COMMISSION
(GAPWUZ, THE UNION FOR COMMERCIAL FARM WORKERS, MISSED
ITS MEETING WHEN THE SCHEDULE FELL HOURS BEHIND AND
GAPWUZ REPRESENTATIVES WANDERED OFF.)

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ATMOSPHERICS
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7. (C) CORNER AND WILLSON OBSERVED THAT THE GOVERNMENT
SOUGHT TO MANIPULATE THE PROGRAM BY MONOPOLIZING THE
GROUP'S TIME AND THROUGH PURPOSEFUL DISORGANIZATION OF
THE ENTIRE EVENT. THE MFA DID NOT PRESENT THE CW
EMBASSIES INVOLVED A PROPOSED SCHEDULE OF MEETINGS UNTIL
WEDNESDAY EVENING, JUST BEFORE INITIAL CALLS ON GOZ
OFFICIALS WERE TO BEGIN. ONLY FIVE OF THE MORE THAN A
DOZEN NON-GOVERNMENTAL GROUPS REQUESTED BY THE CW
FIGURED ON THE LIST, LEADING TO A FLURRY OF LAST-MINUTE
NEGOTIATIONS AND CAPITULATION OF THE GOZ TO MEETING WITH
CIVIL SOCIETY AND VISITS TO A CFU-CHOSEN FARM. IN THE
INITIAL MEETINGS WITH GOZ OFFICIALS, FOREIGN MINISTER
MUDENGE POINTEDLY ATTEMPTED TO LIMIT DISCUSSION TO LAND.
NOT SURPRISINGLY, SEVERAL OF THE SESSIONS INVOLVING NON-
GOVERNMENTAL GROUPS LED TO ACRIMONIOUS EXCHANGES WITH
GOZ REPRESENTATIVES. CORNER SAID THAT FOREIGN MINISTER
MUDENGE HAD SHOWN REMARKABLE COMPOSURE IN THE FACE OF
SHARP CRITICISM OF ZANU-PF LEADERSHIP BY THE

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ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AGRE-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 INL-00
DODE-00 WHA-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EAP-00 EB-00 VC-00
TEDE-00 INR-00 LAB-01 VCE-00 NSAE-00 IRM-00 SSO-00
SS-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /003W
-------------- 36D0D7 291645Z /38
O 291539Z OCT 01
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0146
INFO AMEMBASSY ABUJA IMMEDIATE
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY
NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY CANBERRA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY KINGSTON PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 04 HARARE 003240

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF AND AF/S
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR FRAZER
LONDON FOR GURNEY
PARIS FOR NEARY
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/30/06
TAGS: PREL PHUM EAGR EAID PGOV ZI
SUBJECT: ABUJA II: COMMONWEALTH COMMITTEE MEETING
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 03240 03 OF 04 291644Z
NEITHER BREAKS DOWN NOR BREAKS THROUGH

REPRESENTATIVES OF HUMAN RIGHTS AND DEMOCRACY GROUPS.

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POTEMKIN FARMS DISMANTLED
--------------


8. (C) WILLSON DESCRIBED A SECOND GOZ COMPROMISE ON
SITE VISITS TO FARMS OUTSIDE OF HARARE. THE INITIAL GOZ
PLAN TO HELICOPTER ONLY THE HEADS OF VISITING
DELEGATIONS TO FARMS OF THE GOZ'S CHOICE WAS ALTERED TO
ALLOW A VISIT BY HEADS OF DELEGATION TO ONE FARM OF GOZ
CHOICE AND A SECOND CHOSEN BY THE CW COMMITTEE ITSELF.
WILLSON SAID THAT THE VISIT TO THE FIRST FARM IN
MASVINGO WAS PROBABLY INTENDED BY THE GOZ TO SHOWCASE
PEACEFUL CO-EXISTENCE BETWEEN COMMERCIAL FARMERS AND
THOSE RESETTLED FROM COMMUNAL LANDS. THE FARMER IN
QUESTION, DESCRIBED BY HIS NEIGHBORS AS A GENTLE
INDIVIDUAL OVERWHELMED BY THE OCCUPATION AND DESTRUCTION
OF HIS FARM, HAD REPORTEDLY BEEN WARNED IN ADVANCE BY
THE GOZ TO TAKE A SOFT LINE. HE DID, BUT THEN ASKED TO
YIELD THE FLOOR TO A NEIGHBOR CHOSEN AS SPOKESMAN BY THE
LOCAL COMMERCIAL FARMER COMMUNITY. MUDENGE AND LANDS
MINISTER MADE OBJECTED STRONGLY TO THIS, LEADING TO AN
EXCHANGE WITH CANADIAN DEPUTY MINISTER KILGOUR AND
PLACING NIGERIAN FOREIGN MINISTER LAMIDO, CHAIRMAN OF
THE CW COMMITTEE, IN AN AWKWARD SPOT.


9. (C) IF POSSIBLE, WILLSON RELATED, THE SECOND FARM
ISIT WAS EVEN WORSE FROM THE GOZ PERSPECTIVE. WHEN THE
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CW HEADS OF DELEGATION FINALLY HELICOPTERED IN, OTHER
MEMBERS OF THE DELEGATIONS HAD ALREADY BEEN THERE FOR
TWO HOURS. THEY HAD ALREADY TOURED THE BURNT-OUT HOUSES
OF FARM WORKERS, VISITED THE VANDALIZED HOME OF A FARM
FAMILY NOW LIVING IN HARARE, AND HEARD THE RESETTLED
FARMER OCCUPIERS ADMIT THAT TWO OF THEIR NUMBERS
REPORTEDLY KILLED DURING THE TAKEOVER HAD ACTUALLY
PERISHED WHEN THEY ROLLED OVER A PURLOINED TRACTOR. UK
JUNIOR MINISTER BARONESS AMOS SUMMED UP THE VISIT BY
STATING THAT SHE FOUND IT STRANGE THAT 82 SETTLERS HAD
DISPLACED 265 FARM WORKERS.


10. (C) WILLSON SAID THAT THE FARM VISITS HAD REVEALED
THE STARTLING FACT THAT THE GOZ BELIEVES THAT FARMS
GAZETTED UNDER SECTION 5 OF THE FAST TRACK RESETTLEMENT
PLAN COME UNDER IMMEDIATE GOZ OWNERSHIP. IN RESPONSE,
THE CANADIAN HIGH COMMISSIONER READ DIRECTLY FROM A GOZ
POLICY DOCUMENT DESCRIBING THE LAND REFORM PLAN THAT
STATES: "RESETTLEMENT CANNOT TAKE PLACE AFTER A SECTION
5 ORDER." MUDENGE AND MADE INSISTED THAT THIS LANGUAGE
IS MINISTRY OF INFORMATION PHRASEOLOGY AND HAS NO LEGAL
STANDING.

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NO CW DIVISION, BUT A WEAK COMMUNIQUE
--------------


11. (C) CORNER DISCOUNTED PRESS REPORTS IN THE GOZ
MEDIA THAT THE CW DELEGATION HAD SPLIT ALONG
AFRICAN/NON-AFRICAN LINES. SHE OBSERVED THAT SOME OF
THE GOZ-FRONT CIVIL SOCIETY GROUPS HAD MADE "LOOPY"
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STATEMENTS ABOUT REDRESSING HISTORICAL INEQUITIES THAT
SEEMED TO STRIKE A RESONANT NOTE WITH THE AFRICAN
DELEGATIONS. DESPITE THIS, NEGOTIATIONS OVER THE
COMMUNIQUE HAD REVEALED A GENERALLY UNITED FRONT, WITH
THE CW DELEGATES PUSHING THE ZIMBABWEANS ON ELECTION
OBSERVATION, LAWFUL LAND REFORM AND SIMILAR POINTS.
WILLSON OBSERVED THAT THE NIGERIANS, WHO HAD THE MOST
FACE TO LOSE IF THE VISIT FAILED, HAD SUBMITTED AN
INITIAL COMMUNIQUE THAT WAS TOO SOFT AND SEEMED TO
RATCHET BACK REQUIRED GOZ ACTIONS AS AGREED TO AT THE
ABUJA MEETING. HE POINTED OUT THAT THE FINAL COMMUNIQUE
WAS SOMEWHAT STRONGER, BUT NOT TO THE POINT THAT THE GOZ
HAD REFUSED TO ACCEPT THE TEXT. THE CANADIAN AND
BRITISH HIGH COMMISSIONERS WERE SATISFIED THAT THE
COMMUNIQUE HAD HIGHLIGHTED THE CRITICAL DIFFERENCES OVER
WHAT IS RULE OF LAW WITH RESPECT TO LAND OCCUPATION
ISSUES, ALTHOUGH NO RESOLUTION OF DIFFERENCES WAS
REACHED.


12. (C) COMMENT. TO SOME DEGREES, ALL SIDES ARE
CLUTCHING AT STRAWS TO KEEP THE ABUJA PROCESS ALIVE. WE

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CONFIDENTIAL PTQ2608

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ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AGRE-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00
WHA-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EAP-00 EB-00 VC-00 TEDE-00
INR-00 LAB-01 VCE-00 NSAE-00 SSO-00 SS-00 DSCC-00
DRL-02 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /003W
-------------- 36D0DA 291645Z /38
O 291539Z OCT 01
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0147
INFO AMEMBASSY ABUJA IMMEDIATE
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY
NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY CANBERRA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY KINGSTON PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 04 OF 04 HARARE 003240

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF AND AF/S
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR FRAZER
LONDON FOR GURNEY
PARIS FOR NEARY
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/30/06
TAGS: PREL PHUM EAGR EAID PGOV ZI
SUBJECT: ABUJA II: COMMONWEALTH COMMITTEE MEETING
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 03240 04 OF 04 291644Z
NEITHER BREAKS DOWN NOR BREAKS THROUGH

REMAIN CONCERNED, HOWEVER, THAT THE LAUDABLE DESIRE TO
KEEP THE PATIENT ALIVE SHOULD NOT OVERSHADOW THE FACT
THAT THE ABUJA AGREEMENT IS MEANINGLESS UNLESS IT CAN BE
IMPLEMENTED. GIVEN THE GOZ RECORD AT BACKTRACKING AND
STALLING, WE SEE NO EVIDENCE THAT THEY HAVE THE
POLITICAL WILL TO COOPERATE WITH THE UNDP'S EFFORT TO
MONITOR THE PROVISIONS OF THE AGREEMENT. AT THIS POINT,
OBASANJO IS CERTAINLY THE INDIVIDUAL WITH GREATEST
LEVERAGE OVER MUGABE AND THE GOZ. WE THUS RECOMMEND
THAT THE DEPARTMENT TAKE ADVANTAGE OF HIS VISIT TO
WASHINGTON THIS WEEK TO STRESS THAT THE PROBLEMS OF
UNLAWFUL LAND SEIZURE, CONTINUED LAND AND PRE-ELECTION
VIOLENCE, AND STONEWALLING ON INTERNATIONAL ELECTION
OBSERVERS MUST BE DEALT WITH CONCRETELY IF WE ARE TO
MITIGATE THE GROWING CRISIS IN ZIMBABWE.

SULLVIAN

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