MFA DECLINES TO SAY "YES" OR "NO" ON ELECTION OBSERVERS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 002939

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER
LONDON FOR GURNEY
PARIS FOR NEARY
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER

E.O. 12958: DECL. 10/03/11
TAGS: PREL PGOV ZI
SUBJECT: MFA DECLINES TO SAY "YES" OR "NO" ON ELECTION OBSERVERS
BUT IMPLIES "NO"


CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF MATT HARRINGTON. REASONS:
1.5 (B) AND (D).

REF: A) STATE 169690 B) HARARE 2743 C) HARARE 2690


1. (C) IN AN OCTOBER 2 MEETING WITH MFA EUROPE AND AMERICAS
DIVISION DIRECTOR JONATHAN WUTAWUNASHE, CHARGE, ACCOMPANIED BY
POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF, REITERATED PREVIOUS EXPRESSIONS OF
CONCERN OVER THE GOZ'S TREATMENT OF THE TEAM FROM THE
INTERNATIONAL FOUNDATION FOR ELECTION SYSTEMS (IFES). (N.B. THE
MEETING WAS A FOLLOW-UP TO A/S KANSTEINER'S SEPTEMBER 27
DISCUSSION IN WASHINGTON WITH AMBASSADOR MUBAKO -- REF A). THE
CHARGE STRESSED THE USG' S DISAPPOINTMENT THAT THE IFES TEAM HAD
BEEN ASKED TO LEAVE AFTER IT HAD REQUESTED APPOINTMENTS WITH
GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS RESPONSIBLE FOR OVERSEEING ELECTIONS. IFES
IS AN INTERNATIONALLY-RESPECTED ORGANIZATION THAT HAS OBSERVED
ELECTIONS WORLD-WIDE, AND THE USG STRONGLY ENDORSES ITS PROPOSED
ACTIVITIES IN ZIMBABWE. THE CHARGE POINTED OUT THAT ASSESSMENTS
OF THE ELECTORAL PROCESS FROM ORGANIZATIONS SUCH AS IFES WOULD BE
CRUCIAL TO INTERNATIONAL AND DOMESTIC PERCEPTIONS OF THE
LEGITIMACY OF THE 2002 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. HE SAID HE
UNDERSTOOD THAT IFES INTENDS TO SEND ANOTHER TEAM TO ZIMBABWE IN
MID-OCTOBER, AND WE REQUESTED A SIMPLE "YES" OR "NO" AS TO WHETHER
THEY WOULD BE WELCOME. THE CHARGE STATED THAT WE WOULD INTERPRET
A LACK OF RESPONSE AS A "NO."


2. (C) WUTAWUNASHE REPLIED THAT THE GOZ WAS "AT A GREAT
DISADVANTAGE" LAST TIME BECAUSE IT DID NOT KNOW THE IFES TEAM WAS
COMING. HE SAID IT WOULD BE "PRUDENT" FOR ANYONE CONTEMPLATING A
VISIT TO A "SOVEREIGN COUNTRY" TO FAMILIARIZE HIMSELF WITH THE
NECESSARY PROCEDURES TO FOLLOW. THIS WAS NOT A VISIT THAT OUR TWO
GOVERNMENTS HAD DISCUSSED IN ADVANCE. THE CHARGE ACKNOWLEDGED THE
POINT BUT NOTED THAT IFES IS AN NGO, IS NOT AFFILIATED WITH THE
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UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT, AND DID NOT REQUEST THE EMBASSY'S
ASSISTANCE PRIOR TO ITS TEAM'S VISIT IN EARLY SEPTEMBER.
WUTAWUNASHE SAID HE WAS NOT FAMILIAR WITH WHAT THE TEAM MEMBERS
HAD PUT ON THEIR VISA APPLICATIONS. PERHAPS THEY WERE NOT HONEST
ABOUT THEIR INTENDED WORK IN ZIMBABWE, AND IT MIGHT HAVE LOOKED TO
IMMIGRATION OFFICIALS LIKE A "SURREPTITIOUS ENTRY." IMMIGRATION
OFFICIALS ARE THE SAME THE WORLD OVER, WUTAWUNASHE ADDED.


3. (C) THE USG, THE CHARGE AFFIRMED, IS MORE INTERESTED IN
DETERMINING NEXT STEPS THAN IN REHASHING PAST DIFFICULTIES. HE
REMINDED WUTAWUNASHE THAT SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT MNANGAGWA HAD
ASSURED US THAT INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS WOULD BE WELCOMED BECAUSE
THAT WAS A TRADITION IN ZIMBABWE. THE USG IS NOW REQUESTING A
SIMPLE "YES" OR "NO" ON WHETHER THEY WOULD BE ALLOWED TO WORK
UNHINDERED. IN RESPONSE, WUTAWUNASHE STATED THAT HE WANTED THE
CHARGE TO UNDERSTAND THE PSYCHOLOGY PREVAILING IN OFFICIAL CIRCLES
IN HARARE. THERE IS A STRONG PERCEPTION AMONG MANY IN THE
ZIMBABWEAN GOVERNMENT THAT THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY WANTS TO
REMOVE PRESIDENT MUGABE. THAT PERCEPTION, HE CONTINUED, HAD BEEN
STRENGTHENED BY RECENT CONFERENCES HELD IN WASHINGTON AND LONDON,
AT LEAST ONE ATTENDED BY FORMER A/S CHESTER CROCKER, WHERE
SCENARIOS WERE DISCUSSED ABOUT HOW MUGABE MIGHT BE CONVINCED OR
FORCED TO STEP DOWN. WHY ARE AFRICAN COUNTRIES NOT BEATING DOWN
THE DOOR TO OBSERVE THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, HE ASKED, WHILE
OTHER NATIONS ARE ANXIOUS TO SEND PEOPLE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE? "WE
DON'T EVEN HAVE A DATE SET FOR THE ELECTION YET," WUTAWUNASHE
SAID.


4. (C) THE EUROPE AND AMERICAS DIVISION DIRECTOR SAID HE HESITATED
TO PROVIDE A DEFINITIVE "YES" OR "NO" WITHOUT KNOWING MORE ABOUT
IFES. NGOS, HE DECLARED, ARE A DIME A DOZEN AND ARE NOT
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PAGE 04 HARARE 02939 01 OF 02 031447Z
CONSTRAINED BY DIPLOMATIC CONVENTIONS OR THE NEED TO MAINTAIN
BILATERAL RELATIONSHIPS. FOR THAT REASON, HE PERSONALLY PREFERRED
OFFICIAL OBSERVERS SENT BY GOVERNMENTS. THE CHARGE REITERATED
THAT IFES HAS AN OUTSTANDING INTERNATIONAL REPUTATION FOR
CREDIBILITY, NON-PARTISANSHIP, AND ELECTION-RELATED EXPERTISE. HE
CLARIFIED THAT IFES INITIALLY INTENDS TO CONDUCT AN ASSESSMENT OF
THE ELECTORAL ENVIRONMENT AND WILL THEN DETERMINE WHETHER IT WANTS
TO BECOME INVOLVED IN AN OBSERVATION EFFORT.


5. (C) WUTAWUNASHE AFFIRMED THAT THE GOZ WAS OPERATING "UNDER THE
SPIRIT OF THE ABUJA AGREEMENT," ACCORDING TO WHICH THE
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY WOULD RESPOND TO GOZ REQUESTS FOR
ASSISTANCE WITH ITS ELECTORAL PROCESS. THE GOZ TOOK THE ABUJA
AGREEMENT SERIOUSLY, WUTAWUNASHE INSISTED, AND WOULD ISSUE
INVITATIONS "AT THE RIGHT TIME." IN THE MEANTIME, HE SUGGESTED
THAT GROUPS INTERESTED IN OBSERVING MAKE THE GOZ AWARE OF THAT
INTEREST. SHOULD IFES APPROACH THE ZIMBABWEAN EMBASSY IN
WASHINGTON TO VERIFY ITS BONA FIDES, THE CHARGE ASKED? YES,
WUTAWUNASHE RESPONDED, THEY SHOULD PROBABLY INTRODUCE THEMSELVES
TO THE EMBASSY AND EXPRESS THEIR INTEREST IN OBSERVING THE
ELECTION "WHEN THAT TIME COMES."

COMMENT

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ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 EUR-00 VC-00 H-01
TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 L-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OMB-01
PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 SSO-00
SS-00 TRSE-00 T-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DRL-02 G-00
SAS-00 /005W
-------------- 2926AA 031447Z /45
O 031324Z OCT 01
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9874
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 002939

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER
LONDON FOR GURNEY
PARIS FOR NEARY
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER

E.O. 12958: DECL. 10/03/11
TAGS: PREL PGOV ZI
SUBJECT: MFA DECLINES TO SAY "YES" OR "NO" ON ELECTION OBSERVERS
BUT IMPLIES "NO"

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PAGE 02 HARARE 02939 02 OF 02 031447Z

6. (C) WUTAWUNASHE'S REMARKS SUGGEST THAT THE GOVERNMENT OF
ZIMBABWE IS VERY UNLIKELY TO PROVIDE, ANY TIME SOON, A CLEAR-CUT
"YES" OR "NO" ON THE ISSUE OF INTERNATIONAL ELECTION OBSERVERS.
HE IS RIGHT ABOUT THE PARANOIA REIGNING IN ZANU-PF'S INNER CIRCLE,
WHERE MANY SENIOR OFFICIALS ARE GENUINELY CONVINCED THAT SOME
WESTERN GOVERNMENTS (INCLUDING THE U.S.) ARE USING NGOS AS A FRONT
TO WORK FULL-OUT FOR THE DEFEAT OF MUGABE AND THE RULING PARTY.
AS A RESULT, THE GOZ HAS CLEARLY GONE INTO STALL MODE, AND WILL
USE THE ABUJA AGREEMENT TO CLOAK ITS RELUCTANCE TO ADMIT
INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS. WE SHOULD ASSUME THAT IF INVITATIONS ARE
ISSUED TO IFES AND SIMILAR GROUPS, IT WILL BE DONE ONLY AT THE
VERY LAST MINUTE, IN THE FIVE- TO EIGHT-WEEK PERIOD IN WHICH BY
REGULATION THE GOZ MUST ANNOUNCE ELECTIONS, AND TOO LATE FOR
OBSERVERS TO ASSESS FIRST-HAND THE DAMAGE DONE BY ZANU-PF'S PRE-
ELECTION ANTICS. WUTAWUNASHE FAITHFULLY CONVEYED THE GOZ AND
RULING PARTY THINKING THAT THE WEST AND NGOS ARE NOT OBJECTIVE
OBSERVERS OF ZIMBABWE'S POLITICAL SCENE, ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT CLEAR
THAT HE PERSONALLY SHARES THIS VIEW.

WHITEHEAD

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