SCENESETTER FOR BULAWAYO MAYORAL VOTE AND TWO BY-

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 002642

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER
LONDON FOR GURNEY
PARIS FOR NEARY
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER

E.O. 12958: DECL. 09/06/11
TAGS: PGOV PHUM ZI
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR BULAWAYO MAYORAL VOTE AND TWO BY-
ELECTIONS


CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF MATT HARRINGTON. REASONS:
1.5 (B) AND (D).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) THE VOTERS OF BULAWAYO WILL CHOOSE A NEW MAYOR AND THE
VOTERS OF MAKONI WEST A NEW MEMBER OF PARLIAMENT SEPTEMBER 8-9,
WHILE CHIKOMBA WILL CHOOSE A SUCCESSOR TO THE LATE WAR VETERAN
LEADER CHENJERAI "HITLER" HUNZVI IN A BY-ELECTION SCHEDULED FOR
SEPTEMBER 22-23. THE PRE-ELECTION PERIOD HAS BEEN MOSTLY PEACEFUL
IN BULAWAYO, ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN ACCUSATIONS OF VOTE-BUYING
AND OF PADDING OF THE VOTERS ROLL. THE MDC IS EXPECTED TO WIN,
BUT THE KEY ISSUE IS WHETHER THE OPPOSITION PARTY CAN MAINTAIN ITS
HUGE MARGIN OF VICTORY FROM THE JUNE 2000 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION
-- IN WHICH IT WON 160,000 VOTES TO ZANU-PF'S 20,000 -- AND THUS
PROJECT A SENSE OF POLITICAL MOMENTUM. IN MAKONI WEST, LOCATED ON
THE BORDER BETWEEN THE MDC STRONGHOLD OF MANICALAND PROVINCE AND
ZANU-PF'S HEARTLAND OF MASHONALAND EAST, THE RULING PARTY HAS
EMPLOYED TACTICS OF VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION, ALTHOUGH APPARENTLY
ON A MORE LIMITED SCALE THAN IN PREVIOUS BY-ELECTIONS IN BINDURA,
BIKITA WEST, AND MARONDERA. THE MDC HAS BEEN FORCED TO CONDUCT A
LOW-KEY DOOR-TO-DOOR CAMPAIGN, AND HAD CONSIDERED SEEKING A COURT-
ORDERED DELAY UNTIL RESTORATION OF THE RULE OF LAW. UNTIL THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS, THE CAMPAIGN IN CHIKOMBA HAS BEEN MOSTLY FREE
OF VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION, LIKELY BECAUSE HUNZVI WON BY ALMOST
9,000 VOTES AND ZANU-PF DOES NOT FEEL PARTICULARLY THREATENED
THERE. END SUMMARY.

BULAWAYO
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2. (C) THE RUN-UP TO THE SEPTEMBER 8-9 BULAWAYO MAYORAL ELECTION
HAS BEEN MOSTLY PEACEFUL AND THE OPPOSITION MOVEMENT FOR
DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC) HAS BEEN ABLE TO CAMPAIGN FREELY. ZANU-PF
POLITICAL COMMISSAR -- AND POLITBURO MEMBER -- SIKHANYISO NDLOVU
TOLD POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF THAT HE AND FORMER ARMY COMMANDER
SOLOMON MUJURU HAD ORDERED JOSEPH CHINOTIMBA AND HIS MILITIA TO
STAY AWAY FROM THE BULAWAYO CAMPAIGN, PRESUMABLY BECAUSE THE
PARTY'S USUAL TACTICS OF VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION WOULD ONLY
BACKFIRE IN MATABELELAND. THAT SAID, HOWEVER, SENIOR MOVEMENT FOR
DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC) OFFICIALS EXPRESSED CONCERN TO US ABOUT
TWO TACTICS BEING EMPLOYED BY ZANU-PF IN THE BULAWAYO CAMPAIGN.
ACCORDING TO MDC VICE-PRESIDENT GIBSON SIBANDA AND ELECTIONS
DIRECTOR PAUL THEMBA NYATHI, THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE THAT THE
VOTERS ROLL IS BEING PADDED WITH ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS, ALTHOUGH THEY
DID NOT YET HAVE A SENSE OF THE SCOPE OF THAT EFFORT. THAT
CONCERN HAS BEEN EXACERBATED BY THE FACT THAT THE VOTERS ROLL HAD
NOT YET BEEN MADE AVAILABLE FOR THE REQUISITE PUBLIC INSPECTION,
NINE DAYS BEFORE THE ELECTION. IN ADDITION, RULING PARTY
HEAVYWEIGHTS SUCH AS INFORMATION MINISTER JONATHAN MOYO, LOCAL
GOVERNMENT MINISTER IGNATIUS CHOMBO, AND YOUTH DEVELOPMENT,
GENDER, AND EMPLOYMENT CREATION DEPUTY MINISTER SHUVAI MAHOFA ARE
HANDING OUT LARGE AMOUNTS OF CASH AT POLITICAL RALLIES. ALTHOUGH
SIGNIFICANT NUMBERS OF WOMEN HAVE BEEN ATTENDING THESE RALLIES AND
ACCEPTING THE HANDOUTS, IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT IT WILL AFFECT THE
WAY THEY VOTE.


3. (C) BOTH ZANU-PF AND THE MDC HAVE CHOSEN AS THEIR CANDIDATES
TECHNOCRATS WITH LONG RECORDS OF SERVICE TO THE CITY. THE MDC'S
JAPHET NDABENI NCUBE HAS SERVED AS BULAWAYO'S DIRECTOR OF HOUSING
FOR 15 YEARS, WHILE GEORGE MLILO FROM ZANU-PF HAS BEEN THE CITY'S
WATER ENGINEER OF LONGSTANDING. ACCORDING TO THEMBA NYATHI, MLILO
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HAS BEEN TRYING TO DISTANCE HIMSELF FROM ZANU-PF, REGULARLY URGING
VOTERS AT PUBLIC RALLIES TO CAST THEIR BALLOTS FOR THE CANDIDATE
OF THEIR CHOOSING, REGARDLESS OF THE PARTY THEY REPRESENT. MOST
OBSERVERS AGREE, HOWEVER, THAT THE PARTY LABEL WILL CARRY MUCH
MORE WEIGHT WITH VOTERS THAN THE CREDENTIALS OF THE INDIVIDUAL
CANDIDATES.


4. (C) BULAWAYO, WHERE RESIDENTS HAVE LONG BEEN BRUTALIZED AND
MARGINALIZED BY THE MUGABE GOVERNMENT, IS THE HEART OF MDC
TERRITORY. IN THE JUNE 2000 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION, THE
OPPOSITION PARTY WON 160,000 VOTES IN BULAWAYO TO ZANU-PF'S
20,000. FEW OBSERVERS DOUBT THAT THE MDC WILL WIN THE MAYORAL
RACE, BUT THEY POINT OUT THAT THE KEY ISSUE IS THE MARGIN OF
VICTORY. A LARGE MARGIN FOR THE MDC WOULD CREATE A SENSE OF
MOMENTUM FOR THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN 2002 AND LIKELY WILL
EMBOLDEN NERVOUS MDC SUPPORTERS IN OTHER PARTS OF THE COUNTRY TO
COME OUT ON PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION DAY. A MARGIN SMALLER THAN THAT
WHICH OBTAINED IN JUNE 2000 WOULD PROVIDE AMMUNITION FOR ZANU-PF'S
CONTENTION THAT IT HAS MADE INROADS IN URBAN AREAS SINCE THE
PARLIAMENTARY VOTE. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT BULAWAYO IS AN
EXPECTATIONS GAME, AND A SMALLER THAN EXPECTED VICTORY FOR THE MDC
WILL BE SPUN BY THE RULING PARTY AS A SIGN OF ITS IMPROVED
POLITICAL FORTUNES. THEMBA NYATHI ADMITTED AS MUCH WHEN HE TOLD
US THAT THE MDC'S BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN BULAWAYO IS OVERCOMING

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ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 AMAD-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00
DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00
IO-00 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01
OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00
STR-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 R-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-01
DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /009W
-------------- 1BFD07 071103Z /38
P 071048Z SEP 01
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9666
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 002642

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER
LONDON FOR GURNEY
PARIS FOR NEARY
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER

E.O. 12958: DECL. 09/06/11
TAGS: PGOV PHUM ZI
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR BULAWAYO MAYORAL VOTE AND TWO BY-
ELECTIONS

VOTER COMPLACENCY AND GETTING ITS SUPPORTERS TO THE POLLS.
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PAGE 02 HARARE 02642 02 OF 02 071102Z

MAKONI WEST
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5. (C) THE BY-ELECTION IN MAKONI WEST, ALSO SCHEDULED FOR
SEPTEMBER 8-9, WILL FILL THE SEAT LEFT VACANT BY THE DEATH OF THE
LATE MINISTER OF DEFENSE MOVEN MAHACHI. MAHACHI WON 55% OF THE
VOTE IN JUNE 2000, BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT WHICH WAY THE
ELECTION WILL GO THIS TIME. MAKONI WEST IS LOCATED IN THE
STRONGLY PRO-MDC MANICALAND PROVINCE, BUT IT IS ON THE BORDER WITH
MASHONALAND EAST, A ZANU-PF STRONGHOLD.


6. (C) WE UNDERSTAND FROM SEVERAL SOURCES THAT ZANU-PF'S WAR
VETERANS AND PARTY THUGS HAVE ESTABLISHED AT LEAST FIVE BASE CAMPS
IN THE CONSTITUENCY TO COORDINATE A CAMPAIGN OF VIOLENCE AND
INTIMIDATION AGAINST SUSPECTED OPPOSITION SUPPORTERS. TIM SHEEHY,
WHO WILL HEAD THE EUROPEAN UNION'S NEW ELECTION SUPPORT UNIT IN
HARARE, MET WITH A NUMBER OF LOCAL RESIDENTS IN MAKONI WEST ON
SEPTEMBER 5. DURING HIS VISIT, SHEEHY WAS TOLD BY A PROMINENT
CLERGYMAN THAT THE CAMPAIGN HAS BECOME MORE VIOLENT IN RECENT
WEEKS, AND THAT MDC SUPPORTERS HAVE BEEN THE VICTIMS IN THE
OVERWHELMING NUMBER OF INCIDENTS. THE HOUSE OF THE CONSTITUENCY'S
MDC CHAIRMAN WAS BURNED DOWN, MANY RESIDENTS HAVE BEEN FORCED BY
WAR VETERANS TO ATTEND ALL-NIGHT POLITICAL RALLIES, AND TEACHERS
AT SOME SCHOOLS HAVE BEEN THREATENED WITH PHYSICAL HARM FOR
ALLEGEDLY SUPPORTING THE OPPOSITION. THE CLERGYMAN ALSO EXPRESSED
CONCERN ABOUT POSSIBLE PADDING OF THE VOTERS ROLL, NOTING REPORTS
THAT VOTERS CONTINUE TO BE REGISTERED, LONG AFTER THE LEGAL PERIOD
FOR DOING SO ENDED. IN ITS WRITTEN PRE-ELECTION REPORT, THE
ZIMBABWE ELECTION SUPPORT NETWORK -- WHICH PROVIDES DOMESTIC
MONITORS AT ALL POLLING STATIONS -- DESCRIBED THE CONSTITUENCY AS
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PAGE 03 HARARE 02642 02 OF 02 071102Z
"TENSE, WITH REPORTS THAT INTIMIDATION AND VOTE-BUYING ARE RIFE."


7. (C) MDC ELECTIONS DIRECTOR THEMBA-NYATHI TOLD US THAT, AS A
RESULT OF THE CLIMATE OF INTIMIDATION, HIS PARTY HAS HAD TO
CONDUCT A LOW-KEY DOOR-TO-DOOR CAMPAIGN. THE MDC LEADERSHIP HAD
CONSIDERED ASKING THE COURT TO DELAY THE ELECTION INDEFINITELY,
UNTIL SUCH TIME AS THE RULE OF LAW WAS RESTORED, BUT ULTIMATELY
DECIDED AGAINST THAT COURSE OF ACTION.

CHIKOMBA
--------------


8. (C) A SECOND BY-ELECTION IS SCHEDULED IN THE MASHONALAND EAST
CONSTITUENCY OF CHIKOMBA SEPTEMBER 22-33 TO FILL THE SEAT LEFT
VACANT BY LATE WAR VETERAN LEADER CHENJERAI "HITLER" HUNZVI.
SINCE HUNZVI WON 65 PERCENT OF THE BALLOTS CAST -- BY 7,000 VOTES
-- IN JUNE 2000. GIVEN THAT MARGIN OF VICTORY AND CHIKOMBA'S
LOCATION IN THE ZANU-PF HEARTLAND OF MASHONALAND EAST, THE RULING
PARTY LIKELY WILL RETAIN THIS SEAT. THE CAMPAIGN HAS,
SURPRISINGLY, BEEN MOSTLY PEACEFUL, THANKS TO THE INSISTENCE BY
ZANU-PF'S PROVINCIAL CHAIRMAN THAT HE WOULD NOT TOLERATE THE
TACTICS USED BY THE PARTY IN OTHER BY-ELECTIONS. IN ADDITION, WE
UNDERSTAND THAT HUNZVI'S PREDECESSOR IN CHIKOMBA, SOLOMON MUJURU
-- WHO IS A MEMBER OF THE RULING PARTY POLITBURO AND A RETIRED ARMY
COMMANDER WHO RETAINS THE LOYALTIES OF MANY ACTIVE DUTY OFFICERS
-- HAS BEEN WORKING BEHIND THE SCENES TO ENSURE THAT THE PRE-
ELECTION PERIOD IS PEACEFUL. ZANU-PF COULD HAVE COME TO THE
CONCLUSION THAT IT HAD CHIKOMBA IN THE BAG SO IT COULD AFFORD TO RUN A
PEACEFUL CAMPAIGN. DURING THE PAST WEEK, HOWEVER, WE HAVE HEARD
REPORTS OF SOME VIOLENT CLASHES BETWEEN MDC AND ZANU-PF
SUPPORTERS.
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ELECTION OBSERVATION
--------------


9. (C) EMBASSY OFFICERS PLAN TO OBSERVE ALL THREE ELECTIONS AND
ARE COORDINATING OUR EFFORTS WITH OTHER DIPLOMATIC MISSIONS.

ROTH

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