ZIMBABWE'S COMMERCIAL FARMERS BEING BACKED TO THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 002554

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/S, AF/EPS
TREASURY FOR ED BARBER, C WILKINSON
USDOC FOR 4510 ERIC HENDERSON
STATE PASS USTR/RWHITTAKER
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JFRAZER
LONDON FOR CGURNEY
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/28/06
TAGS: EAGR ECON ETRD PHUM PGOV
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE'S COMMERCIAL FARMERS BEING BACKED TO THE
WALL


CLASSIFIED BY ECON/COMM OFFICER MARK PROKOP, REASON 1.5 (B),
(D)


1. (C) ON AUGUST 28 THREE COMMERCIAL FARMERS REPRESENTING
THE COMMERCIAL FARMERS UNION (CFU) PAID A CALL ON THE DCM AND
ECONOFF TO DESCRIBE THE SERIOUSNESS OF THEIR COLLECTIVE
PLIGHT AND TO ADVISE US THAT IN THEIR VIEW TIME WAS RUNNING
OUT TO HALT MUGABE'S ACTIONS THAT ARE DESTROYING ZIMBABWE'S
ECONOMIC FOUNDATION. THEY ALSO REQUESTED THE USG VIEW OF THE
SITUATION, AND ADVISED US THAT THEY WERE MAKING SIMILAR CALLS
AT OTHER PRINCIPAL MISSIONS INCLUDING THE UK, GERMANY, THE
EU, THE BELGIANS AND SOME OF THE NORDIC COUNTRIES. THE
VISITORS WERE WILLIAM HUGHES, CFU VICE PRESIDENT FOR REGIONS;
MACK CRAWFORD, CFU REPRESENTATIVE FOR MATABELELAND; AND DAVE
DUBARE, A MATABELELAND FARMER AND CFU MEMBER. THEY BELIEVE
FIRMLY THAT PRESIDENTS MBEKI, MOGAE AND CHISSANO HOLD THE KEY
TO CHANGING MUGABE'S PATH, AS THEIR COUNTERPARTS DID YEARS
AGO WHEN THEIR CONCERTED ACTION FORCED IAN SMITH FROM POWER.


2. (C) THE CORE MESSAGE THEY DELIVERED WAS A SIMPLE ONE:
AFTER 18 MONTHS OF HARASSMENT AND EXTREME FINANCIAL AND
PSYCHOLOGICAL PRESSURE, THE COUNTRY'S COMMERCIAL FARMERS ARE
CLOSE TO THE POINT OF THROWING IN THE TOWEL, EITHER
COLLECTIVELY OR INDIVIDUALLY. THE PRESSURE HAS RISEN
CONSIDERABLY IN RECENT WEEKS, AS EVENTS IN CHINHOYI, HWEDZA,
DHOMA AND MATABELELAND INDICATE. THE FARMERS DESCRIBED A
NUMBER OF DIFFERENT TACTICS BEING USED IN VARIOUS LOCATIONS
BY THE GOZ TO DRIVE THEM OUT OF BUSINESS OR OFF THEIR FARMS.
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PAGE 03 HARARE 02554 01 OF 02 291833Z
FOR EXAMPLE, IN THE WESTERN DISTRICTS AND IN THE AREA BETWEEN
HARARE AND MUTARE, WIDESPREAD BURNING OF WINTER CATTLE
GRAZING PASTURES HAS BEEN CARRIED OUT TO DESTROY THE
VIABILITY OF BEEF OPERATIONS (THE FOOT AND MOUTH DISEASE
OUTBREAK HAS SHUT DOWN ALL CATTLE TRANSPORT - SO RELIEF BY
HERD RELOCATION IS RULED OUT). AT THE SAME TIME FIRES HAVE
BEEN SET IN ADJOINING COMMUNAL AREAS TO DRIVE PEASANTS ONTO
THE RANCHERS' PROPERTIES, WHERE THEY CONSIDER THE STOCK TO BE
THERE FOR THE TAKING. ANOTHER TACTIC WAS MAKING SURE THAT AN
INVADER'S SETTLEMENT IS ON EACH AND EVERY COMMERCIAL FARM,
AND THAT AT LEAST ONE AUTOMATIC WEAPON IS AT EACH SETTLEMENT
TO BE SHOWN TO FARM WORKERS TO REMIND THEM OF THEIR FATE
SHOULD THEY INTERFERE WITH THE INVADERS OR VOTE WRONGLY IN
ANY UPCOMING ELECTIONS. THE FARMERS POINTED OUT THAT THE
GOVERNMENT'S ARRAY OF EVOLVING TACTICS WAS CLEARLY DESIGNED
AND EXECUTED TO SKATE BELOW THE RADAR SCREEN OF INTERNATIONAL
ATTENTION BROUGHT ON BY VIOLENCE, AND ALL AGREED THAT THE GOZ
HAD BEEN FAIRLY SUCCESSFUL OF LATE IN THIS REGARD.


3. (C) THE FARMERS TOLD US THAT OUT OF FEAR, EXASPERATION
AND SIMPLE FATIGUE, A COMMUNITY OF FARMERS IN THE VIRGINIA
AREA (ABOUT 100 K EAST OF HARARE AND AN AREA THAT SAW MUCH
VIOLENCE, INTIMIDATION AND A NUMBER OF MURDERS IN THE RUNUP
TO PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS LAST YEAR) HAD CUT AN INDEPENDENT
DEAL WITH THE INVADERS, GIVING UP 30 TO 40 PERCENT OF THEIR
LAND JUST TO BE LEFT ALONE AND IN PEACE. THIS WAS THE FIRST
WE HAD HEARD OF SUCH A DEVELOPMENT, AND THE FARMERS
REPRESENTING THE UNION CLEARLY UNDERSTOOD THAT SUCH ACTIONS
UNDERMINED NATIONAL COLLECTIVE EFFORTS AND PLAYED INTO THE
WISHES OF THE RULING PARTY. AS ONE OF THEM QUIPPED ON THEIR
WAY OUT, "UNITED WE NEGOTIATE, DIVIDED WE BEG."
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4. (C) THE FARMERS ALSO POINTED OUT THAT THE RAPIDLY
DETERIORATING AND HYPERINFLATIONARY ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT,
SPURRED BY THE RAPIDLY DECLINING ZIMDOLLAR, MAY ALSO PUT ANY
OF THOSE FARMERS WHO REMAIN OUT OF BUSINESS. "WELL OVER HALF
OF OUR INPUTS ARE IMPORTED, AND WE JUST CANNOT PAY 700, 1000
OR 1500 ZIMDOLLARS (THE LATTER A YEAR END RATE PREDICTION) TO
THE U.S. DOLLAR AND STAY IN BUSINESS." THEY CLOSED WITH THE
POINT THAT THEY AND THEIR COLLEAGUES ARE BEING PUSHED TO THE
BRINK, AND WITH A PLEA THAT THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY, WHEN
THE POLITICAL ISSUES ARE FINALLY DECIDED, BE PREPARED TO AID
AGRICULTURE'S RESUSCITATION VIA A SIZABLE HARD CURRENCY
FACILITY PRICED AT REASONABLE RATES TO GET THE INDUSTRY BACK
ON ITS FEET.


5. (C) COMMENT: WE DIFFER WITH NONE OF THE ANALYSIS OR
CONCLUSIONS REACHED BY THE FARMERS. THEIR RECOGNITION OF THE
GUILE AND TACTICS ARRAYED AGAINST THEM IS NOT FLAWED, AND
THEIR COMMERCIALLY-BASED ECONOMIC SUGGESTIONS ARE REASONABLE
ONES. WE SKETCHED OUT USG CONCERNS AND INTERESTS, AND SOME
OF THE POSSIBLE PATHS FORWARD. OUR CONTACTS WITH THIS GROUP
WILL CONTINUE, AS BOTH SIDES FOUND IT WORTHWHILE, EVEN IN THE
CONTEXT OF A VERY BLEAK OUTLOOK.

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ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 AGRE-00 AID-00 CIAE-00 CTME-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00
EB-00 EUR-00 EXIM-01 E-00 VC-00 FRB-00 H-01
TEDE-00 INR-00 ITC-01 L-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OMB-01
OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00
SSO-00 SS-00 STR-00 T-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DRL-02
G-00 SAS-00 /008W
-------------- 187056 291834Z /45
P 291436Z AUG 01
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9587
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
USDOC WASHDC
DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 002554

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/S, AF/EPS
TREASURY FOR ED BARBER, C WILKINSON
USDOC FOR 4510 ERIC HENDERSON
STATE PASS USTR/RWHITTAKER
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JFRAZER
LONDON FOR CGURNEY
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/28/06
TAGS: EAGR ECON ETRD PHUM PGOV
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 02554 02 OF 02 291834Z
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE'S COMMERCIAL FARMERS BEING BACKED TO THE
WALL

ROTH

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