HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE: PRELIMINARY

1. SUMMARY. POST UNDERSTANDS URGENCY OF HUMANITARIAN
ASSISTANCE (HA); HOWEVER, WE DO NOT BELIEVE THAT THE WV
PROPOSAL AS CURRENTLY PRESENTED TO BE A SUFFICIENT USG
RESPONSE TO THE CRISIS. WE HAVE A NUMBER OF CONCERNS
ELABORATED BELOW AND REQUEST ADVICE ON THE LIKELY LEVEL OF
RESOURCE AVAILABILITY FROM THE USG.



2. THIS MESSAGE PROVIDES PRELIMINARY COMMENTS ON SECOND
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DRAFT OF WORLD VISION (WV) PROPOSAL. WE UNDERSTAND THAT
THERE IS A THIRD VERSION THAT WE HAVE NOT SEEN AND THAT WV
EXPECTS TO SHORTLY SUBMIT A FOURTH VERSION. POST HAS NOT
CONDUCTED A FULL REVIEW OF THE PROPOSAL AND THUS THIS
MESSAGE SHOULD BE CONSIDERED AS INFORMAL AND PRELIMINARY.



3. POST HAS SEVERAL COMMENTS AND CONCERNS, AND THESE
INCLUDE:

--WE CONCUR IN THE PROPOSED GEOGRAPHIC FOCUS IN MIDLANDS AND
MATEBELELAND NORTH THAT TAKES INTO ACCOUNT POLITICAL AND
ETHNIC BALANCE.

--ALL DONORS HERE CONSIDER THE HUMANITARIAN CRISIS IN
ZIMBABWE A COMPLEX MAN-MADE DISASTER CAUSED PARTIALLY BY
VIOLENCE AND DISRUPTIONS IN THE COMMERCIAL FARMING SECTOR
RESULTING IN THE DISPLACEMENT OF FARM WORKERS AND MOVEMENT
OF COMMUNAL FARMERS TO RESETTLEMENT AREAS; INAPPROPRIATE GOZ
BUDGET PRIORITIES; AND POOR MACRO-ECONOMIC POLICIES SUCH AS
RECENT REGRESSION ON LIBERALIZING GRAIN MARKETS. THE IMPACT
OF CYCLONE ELINE, AND INADEQUATE GOZ RESPONSES TO THIS
PHENOMENON, AND THE PERENNIAL DROUGHT IN THE TARGET REGIONS
HAVE FURTHER AGGRAVATED THE SITUATION. THE WV PROPOSAL
FACTORS IN THE IMPACT OF THE DROUGHT BUT ONLY ACKNOWLEDGES
(P. 4) THAT OPPORTUNITIES FOR INCOME GENERATION AS OPPOSED
TO SUPPLEMENTAL FOOD DISTRIBUTION ARE "DWINDLING" DUE TO THE
GENERAL ECONOMIC DECLINE.

--A COMPLEX EMERGENCY REQUIRES RESPONSES IN ADDITION TO
FOOD. IN THIS RESPECT, THE PROPOSAL IS INADEQUATE. WHILE
THERE ARE STATEMENTS REGARDING WV "PLANS" TO MOVE THE
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ACTIVITY FROM GENERAL DISTRIBUTION OF FOOD TO "FOOD ASSISTED
ACTIVITIES" IN YEARS TWO AND THREE (IF INDEED THE PROGRAM
EXTENDS THAT LONG), THERE ARE NO DETAILS ABOUT WHAT WV PLANS
TO DO IN THE WAY OF ALTERNATIVE DELIVERY MECHANISMS. WE ARE
CONCERNED THAT ALTERNATIVES WILL NOT BE DEVELOPED BEFORE THE
DIRECT FEEDING PROGRAM STARTS AND A CYCLE OF FOOD
DISTRIBUTION WILL RESULT, ESPECIALLY IF GOZ LAND POLICY
PROVOKES EVEN MORE SERIOUS FOOD SHORTAGES IN FOLLOWING
YEARS. BECAUSE THE US HAS TAKEN THE LEAD IN CALLING FOR A
DIFFERENT RESPONSE TO FOOD CRISES (OTHER THAN FREE FEEDING),
WE COULD OPEN OURSELVES TO CRITICISM. IN ADDITION, IT WOULD
BE SHORTSIGHTED TO APPROVE AN ACTIVITY THAT ONLY ADDRESSES
FOOD FOR THE MOST NEEDY WITHOUT ADDRESSING THE NEED FOR
INCOME GENERATION, WHICH CANNOT BE DONE UNTIL ALTERNATIVE
ACTIVITIES ARE IDENTIFIED. AT A MINIMUM, WE WOULD LIKE TO
SEE SOME ALTERNATIVE MECHANISMS, AND A TIME LINE TO INDICATE
WHEN EXPERIMENTATION WITH THESE WILL BE INITIATED.

--THE RELIANCE ON ONLY DIRECT DISTRIBUTION TO THE MOST NEEDY
ALSO VIOLATES THE PRINCIPLES THAT USAID HARARE DEVELOPED AND
PRESENTED TO STATE AND USAID WASHINGTON IN EARLY JULY.
GIVEN THE POLITICAL SITUATION, DIRECT DISTRIBUTION IS THE
APPROACH MOST VULNERABLE TO POLITICAL INTERFERENCE. WHILE
WE RECOGNIZE THAT IT MAY BE IMPOSSIBLE TO PREVENT
POLITICIZATION OF THE RESOURCE, GIVEN A LONG HISTORY OF
PATRONAGE AND THE USE OF STATE RESOURCES TO BROADEN
POLITICAL SUPPORT, WE BELIEVE THAT USING FOOD FOR WORK WILL
GIVE BENEFICIARIES A SENSE THAT THEY HAVE EARNED THE
RESOURCE.

--DESIGN PRINCIPLES ALSO CALLED FOR MONITORING BY REPUTABLE
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PAGE 04 HARARE 02508 01 OF 02 241030Z
ORGANIZATIONS TO DETERMINE NEUTRALITY OF DISTRIBUTION AND
WHETHER THERE IS POLITICAL INTERFERENCE. THE PROPOSAL DOES
NOT ADDRESS THIS IMPORTANT ISSUE.

--THE PROPOSAL ALSO DOES NOT ADDRESS THE PRINCIPLE OF
RELYING ON COMMERCIAL MECHANISMS AND WORKING WITH THE
PRIVATE SECTOR TO THE GREATEST EXTENT POSSIBLE. WHILE THE
STATEMENTS IN THE PROPOSAL INDICATE A WILLINGNESS TO EXAMINE
DISTRIBUTION ALTERNATIVES, POST FEARS THAT ONCE A DIRECT
DISTRIBUTION PROGRAM COMMENCES, IT WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT,
TO MOVE TO OTHER DISTRIBUTION MECHANISMS. EXPERIENCE WITH
FEEDING PROGRAMS ELSEWHERE SUPPORTS THIS REASONING.

-- THERE IS NO MENTION IN THE PROPOSAL OF THE ROLE OF THE
COMMUNITIES IN IDENTIFYING BENEFICIARIES AND USE OF THE
RESOURCES. THE PROPOSAL DOES NOT DESCRIBE HOW WV WILL
INTERACT WITH GOVERNMENT OR DESCRIBE THE ROLE OF THE GOZ IN
SELECTING BENEFICIARIES.

--THE PROPOSAL DOES NOT ELABORATE ON PAST WV EXPERIENCE WITH
DIRECT DISTRIBUTION IN ZIMBABWE OR ELSEWHERE. IT DOES NOT

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UNCLASSIFIED PTQ0699

PAGE 01 HARARE 02508 02 OF 02 241031Z
ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00
DS-00 UTED-00 VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 LAB-01 VCE-00
DCP-01 NSAE-00 IRM-00 TEST-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 NFAT-00
SAS-00 /004W


--------------------------

15F984 241031Z /38
P 241021Z AUG 01
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9546

UNCLAS SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 002508

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF, AF/S, AND AF/EPS

USAID FOR AA/AFR, BHR/FFP, AFR/SA

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EAID PREL PREL ZI
SUBJECT: HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE: PRELIMINARY
COMMENTS/ISSUES CONCERNING WORLD VISION PROPOSAL

DESCRIBE HOW OR BY WHOM FOOD WILL BE DISTRIBUTED.

--THE PROPOSAL IS MUTE ON THE ISSUE OF THE SECURITY ISSUES
AND HOW IT WILL ADDRESS THEM. A KEY ASSUMPTION THAT
"SECURITY REMAINS GOOD IN THE PROPOSED PROGRAM AREA" IS
QUESTIONABLE. WE DO NOT THINK THAT THE SITUATION ON THE
GROUND IS THAT CLEAR.

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PAGE 02 HARARE 02508 02 OF 02 241031Z
--WHILE THE PROPOSAL IDENTIFIES OTHER NGOS, INCLUDING
INDIGENOUS ONES, IN THE PROGRAM AREA, IT DOES NOT DESCRIBE
THEIR INVOLVEMENT OR COLLABORATION. USAID HAS CONSULTED
WITH A WIDE RANGE OF NGOS IN THE PROPOSED PROGRAM AREA AND
FOUND A HIGH DEGREE OF HISTORICAL COLLABORATION AND A
WILLINGNESS TO WORK TOGETHER AND SHARE RESOURCES. THE WV
PROPOSAL MAKES NO MENTION OF HOW IT WILL WORK WITH OTHERS.
MEANWHILE POST HAS INDICATED TO OTHER NGOS THAT WHILE WE
WOULD WORK THROUGH A US ORGANIZATION, WE WOULD EXPECT
COLLABORATION INCLUDING SHARED RESOURCES THAT WOULD ALLOW
OTHER NGOS TO PROVIDE ASSISTANCE IN COMMUNITIES WHERE WV IS
NOT PRESENT.

--THE PROGRAM MONITORING INDICATORS INCLUDE ONLY ONE "PEOPLE
LEVEL" INDICATOR - NUMBER OF TARGETED BENEFICIARIES. ALL
OTHER INDICATORS FOCUS ON TRAINING OF WV STAFF,
COMPUTERIZATION OF THE DISTRIBUTION TRACKING SYSTEM, ETC.
COMMODITY REPORTS WOULD BE SUBMITTED MONTHLY/QUARTERLY,
ACCORDING TO THE PROPOSAL, BUT OTHER INDICATORS - STAFF
TRAINING, SUCCESS OF THE TRACKING SYSTEM -- WOULD ONLY BE AT
THE PROJECT'S END.

--ECONOMIC INDICATORS CITED IN SECTION B (PAGE 4) ARE
UNDERSTATED.

--BELLMON ANALYSIS APPEARS INADEQUATE. WHILE WE ACKNOWLEDGE
THAT THE WV PROPOSAL WOULD HAVE MINIMAL MARKET IMPACT, THERE
IS NO ANALYSIS OF TOTAL NEEDS, MARKET ABILITY TO RESPOND TO
THE IMPACT OF THE PROPOSED FOOD AID OR MIX OF COMMODITIES.



3. LIKE WASHINGTON, POST IS SEIZED WITH THE URGENCY OF
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PAGE 03 HARARE 02508 02 OF 02 241031Z
THIS MATTER. NOTWITHSTANDING, GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD THAT
THIS MAY BE THE PRIMARY USG RESPONSE TO THE HUMANITARIAN
CRISIS, IT IS ESSENTIAL THAT WE WORK WITH WV TO BE SURE THE
PROPOSAL IS VIABLE AND APPROPRIATE. ALTERNATIVELY, WE COULD
ENGAGE ANOTHER USPVO AUTHORIZED AS A COOPERATING SPONSOR FOR
PL 480, OR WE SHOULD CONSIDER NOW WHAT WOULD BE NEEDED TO
MONETIZE A PORTION OF THE FOOD AND ALLOW THE PRIVATE SECTOR
TO IMPORT AND DISTRIBUTE, TO AVOID MARKET DISTORTIONS IN ANY
FUTURE PROGRAM. WE ACKNOWLEDGE THAT THIS IS NOT FEASIBLE
BEFORE THE END OF THIS FISCAL YEAR. WE NOTE BASED ON
INFORMATION FROM USAID/BHR EXPERTS THAT WE CAN CALL FORWARD
THE FOOD SHIPMENT WITHOUT AWARDING THE GRANT TO WV AT THIS
TIME. IF ADDITIONAL RESOURCES ARE LIKELY TO BE MADE
AVAILABLE, WE COULD CONSIDER THE WV PROPOSAL AS ONE ELEMENT
OF OUR RESPONSE. HOWEVER, IT IS OUR UNDERSTANDING THAT
RESOURCES ARE EXTREMELY LIMITED AND THAT THE PACKAGE
PROPOSED BY WV IS LIKELY TO BE THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF RESOURCES
USG CAN MAKE AVAILABLE.



4. ACTION REQUEST: USAID/BHR IS REQUESTED TO ADVISE
WHETHER THE QUANTITIES (12,000 MT) AND MIX OF COMMODITIES IS
LIKELY TO BE AVAILABLE AND WHETHER THE REQUEST FOR 202E
FUNDING IS REASONABLE GIVEN RESOURCE AVAILABILITY. ARE
INCREMENTAL RESOURCES BEYOND THOSE PROPOSED BY WV AVAILABLE
FOR OTHER HA PROGRAMS? INCREASINGLY RELIABLE ESTIMATES ARE
BEGINNING TO COALESCE AROUND THE 300,000 - 400,000 MT LEVEL
FOR THE ANTICIPATED SHORTFALL, WHICH MIGHT INCLUDE A SET
ASIDE PORTION FOR THE STRATEGIC GRAIN RESERVE FOR 2002.



5. POST APPRECIATES SUPPORT FROM DEPARTMENT AND USAID/BHR
AND AFR/SA ON THIS HIGH PRIORITY MATTER.
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ROTH

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