GLEANINGS FROM THE DIPLOMATIC HUSTINGS -- IT'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 002499

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF AND AF/S
PARIS FOR WILLIAMS-MANIGAULT
LONDON FOR NEARY
USEU FOR POLCOUNS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/24/03
TAGS: PREL ZI
SUBJECT: GLEANINGS FROM THE DIPLOMATIC HUSTINGS -- IT'S
THE ECONOMY, STUPID, AS MUCH AS THE POLITICS


CLASSIFIED BY DCM REWHITEHEAD DUE TO 1.5 (B) AND (D).


1. SUMMARY AND ACTION REQUEST. INITIAL COURTESY CALLS
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ON COUNTERPARTS IN THE FRENCH AND BELGIAN EMBASSIES HAVE
REVEALED DIFFERENCES WITHIN THE EU RANKS OVER HOW TO
PROCEED ON ARTICLE 8 NEGOTIATIONS WITH ZIMBABWE. THE
AUSTRALIANS SAY THAT THE GOZ HAS NOT YET INDICATED WHO
WILL BE ON THE ZIMBABWEAN DELEGATION TO THE CHOGM IN
BRISBANE. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE VARYING INTERPRETATIONS OF
THE GRAVITY OF THE POLITICAL CRISIS, EVERYONE AGREES
THAT THE ECONOMY IS A MAJOR DISASTER IN THE MAKING. WE
WOULD APPRECIATE USEU VIEWS ON POSSIBLE DIFFERENCES
WITHINT THE EU ON ARTICLE 8 CONSULTATIONS ON ZIMBABWE.
END SUMMARY.

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FRANCE: IT COULD BE WORSE
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2. (C) COUNSELOR OF THE FRENCH EMBASSY JEROME SAUTIER
WAS BY FAR THE MOST RELAXED ABOUT THE STATE OF PLAY IN
ZIMBABWE. HE NOTED THAT THE POLITICAL SITUATION HAD
GONE DOWNHILL SINCE HIS ARRIVAL TWO YEARS EARLIER BUT
SPECULATED THAT ZIMBABWE COULD STILL MAKE IT THROUGH THE
2002 ELECTIONS WITHOUT MAJOR DAMAGE. HE OBSERVED THAT
ON THE AFRICAN CONTINUUM, ZIMBABWE RANKS SOMEWHERE IN
THE MIDDLE IN TERMS OF POLITICAL VIOLENCE. HE EXPRESSED
GREATER CONCERN FOR THE RAPID ECONOMIC DETERIORATION,
WHICH HE FEARED COULD BE IRREVERSIBLE.

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BELGIUM: ESCHEWING THE HARD LINE
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3. (C) BELGIAN COUNSELOR ALEXIS DE CROMBRUGGHE SAID
THAT HE (AND HIS ABSENT AMBASSADOR) HAD TRIED TO TAKE A
PRAGMATIC VIEW IN DEALING WITH THE GOVERNMENT OF THIS
"VERY TROUBLED COUNTRY." HE SAID THAT HE WAS CONCERNED
THAT THE EU "ULTIMATUM" ON ARTICLE 8 CONSULTATIONS WITH
ZIMBABWE COULD BACKFIRE, WITH THE ZIMBABWEANS HARDENING
THEIR POSITION, AGGRAVATING AN ALREADY COMPLICATED
DYNAMIC. HE CITED SEVERAL TECHNICAL MISSTEPS IN
PREPARATION OF THE "ULTIMATUM" AND NOTED THAT THERE WERE
CLEAR DIFFERENCES AMONG THE EU DIPLOMATIC PRESENCE IN
HARARE ON HOW BEST TO PROCEED. DE CROMBRUGGHE
IDENTIFIED GOZ FLEXIBILITY ON EU ELECTION MONITORING AS
A KEY INDICATOR TO PROGRESS IN EU/ZIMBABWE
CONSULTATIONS.


4. (C) DE CROMBRUGGHE SAID THAT HE DOES NOT FULLY SHARE
THE VIEWS OF SEVERAL EU CHIEFS OF MISSION THAT THE MDC
WILL SWEEP TO VICTORY IN FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS. THE
OUTCOME OF THE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS, AND THE RECENT
ZANU-PF WINS IN BY-ELECTIONS, INDICATE THAT ZANU-PF
STILL ENJOYS SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT, ESPECIALLY IN ITS
TRADITIONAL STRONGHOLD OF MASHONALAND. HE PREDICTED
THAT THE PRESIDENTIAL VOTE COULD BE A CLOSE ONE, PERHAPS
THE LEAST IDEAL OUTCOME UNDER CURRENT CIRCUMSTANCES.
DCM NOTED THAT THE DECLINING ECONOMY WILL CERTAINLY
ERODE ZANU SUPPORT AND POINTED OUT "FREE AND FAIR" IS
THE OPERATIVE PHRASE. CONTINUED ZANU-PF INTIMIDATION
COUPLED WITH CONCERTED ATTACKS ON JUDICIAL AND ELECTORAL
INSTITUTIONS RISKS MUDDYING THE WATER TO THE DEGREE THAT
EVEN ELECTORAL VICTORIES IN LIKELY ZANU-PF STRONGHOLDS
COULD BE CALLED INTO QUESTION. DE CROMBRUGGHE FULLY
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AGREED THAT THE TIDE OF THE ECONOMY IS INCREASINGLY
RUNNING AGAINST THE MUGABE GOVERNMENT.


5. (C) IN A RELATED DEVELOPMENT, ON AUGUST 22 EU
DIPLOMAT ALEX KREMER TOLD POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF THAT
THERE HAS BEEN NO PROGRESS ON THE ARTICLE 8 DIALOGUE
WITH ZIMBABWE SINCE THE GENERAL AFFAIRS COUNCIL ISSUED
ITS ULTIMATUM IN LATE JUNE. ACCORDING TO KREMER, THE
GAC WOULD NOT DECIDE ON NEXT STEPS -- INCLUDING A
POSSIBLE MOVE TO ARTICLE 96 DISCUSSIONS -- UNTIL ITS
NEXT GATHERING IN EARLY OCTOBER. THAT SAID, THE EU
WORKING GROUP ON AFRICA PLANNED TO MEET IN EARLY
SEPTEMBER AND WOULD MAKE RECOMMENDATIONS THAT THE GAC
WOULD LIKELY ABIDE BY.

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AUSTRALIA: MUGABE WELCOME TO COME
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6. (C) THE NUMBER-TWO FOR AUSTRALIA, DON FOLEY, AND
POLITICAL OFFICER JENNY DEE SAID THAT THE GOZ HAS NOT

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CONFIDENTIAL PTO8710

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ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 USNW-00 DODE-00 DS-00
EUR-00 VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 LAB-01 VCE-00 NSAE-00
IRM-00 EPAE-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /003W
-------------- 15E2E8 240558Z /38
P 240550Z AUG 01
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9541
USEU BRUSSELS PRIORITY
INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
AMEMBASSY PARIS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 002499

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF AND AF/S
PARIS FOR WILLIAMS-MANIGAULT
LONDON FOR NEARY
USEU FOR POLCOUNS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/24/03
TAGS: PREL ZI
SUBJECT: GLEANINGS FROM THE DIPLOMATIC HUSTINGS -- IT'S
THE ECONOMY, STUPID, AS MUCH AS THE POLITICS

YET INDICATED WHO WILL BE ON OR HEAD THE ZIMBABWEAN
DELEGATION TO THE CHOGM IN BRISBANE, ALTHOUGH FOLEY
ASSUMES MUGABE WILL GO. FOLEY CITED SEVERAL RECENT
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ARTICLES IN THE GOVERNMENT PRESS THAT CRITICIZED VARIOUS
"RACIST" AUSTRALIAN POLITICIANS FOR CALLING ON CANBERRA
TO BLOCK MUGABE'S PARTICIPATION. FOLEY SAID THAT IT IS
THE AUSTRALIAN FOREIGN MINISTER'S VIEW THAT MUGABE
SHOULD ATTEND IF HE SO CHOOSES.


6. (C) DEE SAID THAT POSSIBLE COMMONWEALTH ELECTION
MONITORING WAS "IN THE BACK OF OUR MINDS" BUT DID NOT
EXPECT MUCH MOVEMENT ON THIS FRONT UNTIL AFTER THE
CHOGM. SHE SAID THE EIGHT-MEMBER COMMONWEALTH GROUP HAD
THUS FAR BEEN UNABLE TO AGREE ON WHAT TOPICS TO DISCUSS
-- THE GOZ SEEKS TO LIMIT TALKS TO LAND REFORM -- LET
ALONE CONSIDER ELECTION MONITORING. (NOTE: IN A
SEPARATE MEETING WITH POLCHIEF, DEE AND BRITISH
POLITICAL OFFICER WERE NOT OPTIMISTIC THAT THE SEPTEMBER
6 MEETING IN ABUJA OF THE EIGHT-MEMBER COMMONWEALTH
GROUP WOULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RESULTS. LINDSAY
COMMENTED THE AFRICAN PARTICIPANTS IN ABUJA WOULD PLAY A
CRITICAL ROLE BUT EXPRESSED CONCERN THAT FM LAMIDO, WHO
HAD TAKEN A SOFTER VIEW OF MUGABE THAN HAS OBASANJO,
WOULD BE CHAIRING THE MEETING.) DEE SAID THAT
PROJECTING WHERE THE POLITICAL SITUATION WILL LEAD (A
STAPLE OF DIPLOMATIC EXCHANGES HERE) IS CRYSTAL BALL
GAZING, GIVEN THE VARIABLES. HOWEVER, SHE AND FOLEY
EXPRESSED DISMAY AT THE EFFECT OF THE ECONOMIC DOWNTURN
ON THE AVERAGE ZIMBABWEAN.

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COMMENT
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8. IN OUR VIEW, IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO SEPARATE BAD
POLITICAL DECISIONS FROM ECONOMIC DECLINE IN THE CURRENT
CONTEXT, WITH EACH FEEDING THE OTHER. WE CANNOT SAY IF
DE CROMBRUGGHE'S COMMENTS ON ARTICLE 8 REFLECT BELGIAN
THINKING BUT WOULD APPRECIATE ANY INSIGHTS USEU CAN
PROVIDE ON POSSIBLE DIFFERENCES WITHIN THE EU ON THIS
ISSUE.

ROTH

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