A ZAMBIAN TAKE ON ZIMBABWE SITUATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 002365

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF, AF/S, AND AF/RA
LONDON FOR GURNEY
PARIS FOR WILLIAMS-MANIGAULT
NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR FRAZIER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/09/06
TAGS: PREL PGOV ZI
SUBJECT: A ZAMBIAN TAKE ON ZIMBABWE SITUATION

CLASSIFIED BY DCM ROBERT E. WHITEHEAD FOR REASONS 1.5
(B) AND (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY. DCM PAID A COURTESY CALL ON ZAMBIAN
COUNTERPART BEN SHAWA ON AUGUST 9. THE EXCHANGE WAS
SURPRISINGLY FRANK AND PRODUCTIVE, WITH SHAWA
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 02365 01 OF 02 091356Z
PROVIDING HIS TAKE ON ELECTION PROSPECTS, SADC
ELECTORAL MONITORING, NDEBELE RUMBLINGS, ZDERA, AND
THE IMPACT OF EVENTS IN ZIMBABWE ON ZAMBIA. END
SUMMARY.

--------------
FREE AND FAIR NOT IN THE CARDS
--------------


2. (C) SHAWA EXPRESSED THE VIEW THAT FREE AND FAIR
2002 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS ARE HIGHLY UNLIKELY. HE
PREDICTED WIDESPREAD GOZ-SPONSORED VIOLENCE IN AN
ATTEMPT TO INTIMIDATE WOULD-BE MDC VOTERS INTO EITHER
VOTING ZANU-PF OR STAYING AWAY FROM THE POLLS
ALTOGETHER. THE MUGABE STRATEGY, HE CONTINUED, WAS TO
ENGINEER AN ELECTORAL VICTORY, AT WHICH TIME HE
PLANNED TO REIN IN THE WAR VETERANS AND LAUNCH A CHARM
OFFENSIVE ON THE INTERNATIONAL STAGE TO REHABILITATE
ZIMBABWE'S IMAGE AND IMPROVE ITS PROSPECTS FOR RENEWED
ECONOMIC ASSISTANCE. SHAWA DOUBTED THAT MUGABE COULD
ACHIEVE THE LATTER AND WAS EQUALLY DUBIOUS ON THE
SECOND POINT. HE CONCLUDED THAT THE PERCEPTION OF A
STOLEN ELECTION RISKED SPARKING SERIOUS OUTBREAKS IN
URBAN AREAS, WHERE PEOPLE FEEL THAT THEY HAVE LITTLE
TO LOSE AND ACTUALLY WELCOME FACE-OFFS WITH SECURITY
FORCES.

--------------
TOOTHLESS SADC ELECTION MONITORS
--------------

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 03 HARARE 02365 01 OF 02 091356Z

3. (C) DCM ASKED IF SADC WOULD MOUNT AN ELECTION
MONITORING EXERCISE AS IT HAD DONE FOR PARLIAMENTARY
ELECTIONS. SHAWA CONFIRMED THAT THIS WOULD CERTAINLY
HAPPEN, ALTHOUGH NO PLAN HAD YET BEEN FINALIZED. HE
ADDED THAT THE GRZ WOULD PUSH FOR THIS OUTCOME, SINCE
IT FAVORED THE "SOFT, TOOTHLESS" APPROACH OF SADC, A
LA MBEKI, RATHER THAN MORE RIGOROUS INTERNATIONAL
SCRUTINY. HE PREDICTED THAT THE GOZ WOULD ORGANIZE A
DIPLOMATIC OFFENSIVE TO ENSURE THAT OTHER SADC STATES
STAYED IN LINE. HE NOTED THAT THE MDC'S ATTEMPT TO
ARRANGE TOP-LEVEL MEETINGS FOR TSVANGIRAI IN SADC
CAPITALS HAD PROMPTED THE DISPATCH OF GOZ TEAMS TO
PRESSURE WOULD-BE HOSTS ON THIS POINT. A NUMBER OF
SADC COUNTRIES HAD SUBSEQUENTLY DUCKED THE MEETINGS.
IN ZAMBIA, TSVANGIRAI HAD BEEN SHUNTED OFF TO MMD
HATCHET MAN MICHAEL SATA, WHOM SHAWA (PROTECT) TERMED
"OUR (ZAMBIA'S) OWN WAR VET."

--------------
HIGH-LEVEL NDEBELE DISCONTENT
--------------


4. (C) SHAWA SAID THAT THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT RIFTS AT
THE TOP OF ZANU-PF, AND THAT ONE OF THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT CLEAVAGES RUNS ALONG ETHNIC LINES. HE
DESCRIBED A RECENT APPROACH BY MEMBERS OF THE KAFELA
TRUST, WHICH HE DESCRIBED AS AN NDEBELE FOUNDATION.
VICE PRESIDENT MSIKA, HOME AFFAIRS MINISTER NKOMO, AND
MINISTER MOYO (HE DID NOT SPECIFY WHICH ONE)
APPROACHED THE ZAMBIAN HIGH COMMISSION WITH A REQUEST
TO SEND ARCHIVISTS AND CAMERAMEN TO ZAMBIA TO SEARCH
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 04 HARARE 02365 01 OF 02 091356Z
FREEDOM HOUSE AND MILITARY ARCHIVES FOR DOCUMENTS
CHRONICLING ZIPRA'S ROLE IN THE LIBERATION STRUGGLE.
THEY COMPLAINED THAT OFFICIAL GOZ CHRONICLES OF THE
WAR EMPHASIZED THE CENTRAL ZANLA ROLE AND RELEGATED
ZIPRA TO THE FOOTNOTES.


5. (C) SHAWA SAID THAT THE UNITY AGREEMENT WAS SHAKY
AND POSITED THAT THE KAFELA TRUST INITIATIVE MIGHT BE
A HARBINGER OF A MOVEMENT TO RECREATE A ZAPU
ORGANIZATION AS OPPOSED TO THE ZAPU 2000 PARTY FORMED
BEFORE THE 2000 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION, THAT FAILED TO
GARNER WIDESPREAD SUPPORT IN MATEBELELAND. THE
ZAMBIAN HIGH COMMISSIONER REQUESTED THAT THEY PUT
THEIR REQUEST THROUGH OFFICIAL GOZ CHANNELS, TO AVOID
ACCUSATIONS AFTER THE FACT THAT THE GRZ WAS PLAYING A
DOUBLE GAME. SHAWA ADDED IRONICALLY THAT WHATEVER THE
OUTCOME OF THE INITIATIVE, THE GRZ WOULD ENSURE THAT
NO ONE FROM A KAFELA TRUST DELEGATION WENT TO
BAROTSELAND.

--------------

CONFIDENTIAL

CONFIDENTIAL PTQ3286

PAGE 01 HARARE 02365 02 OF 02 091357Z
ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 USNW-00 DODE-00 DS-00
VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 VCE-00 DCP-01 NSAE-00 SSO-00
SS-00 DSCC-00 PRM-01 DRL-02 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /004W
-------------- 0FC844 091357Z /38
O 091357Z AUG 01
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9437
INFO NSC WASHDC
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 002365

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF, AF/S, AND AF/RA
LONDON FOR GURNEY
PARIS FOR WILLIAMS-MANIGAULT
NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR FRAZIER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/09/06
TAGS: PREL PGOV ZI
SUBJECT: A ZAMBIAN TAKE ON ZIMBABWE SITUATION

ZDERA
--------------


6. (C) DCM NOTED BROAD LOCAL PRESS COVERAGE OF SENATE
PASSAGE OF ZDERA AND ASKED SHAWA WHAT HIS ZAMBIAN
INTERLOCUTORS WERE SAYING ABOUT THE BILL. SHAWA
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 02365 02 OF 02 091357Z
REPLIED THAT THE OVERWHELMING SENTIMENT AMONG THE
LITERATE CLASS WAS THAT IF ZDERA HASTENED MUGABE'S
DEPARTURE FROM THE SCENE, THEN THEY WERE FOR IT.
ZANU-PF PROPAGANDA WAS MORE EFFECTIVE WITH THE LESS
EDUCATED, HOWEVER, MANY OF WHOM TAKE AT FACE VALUE
CLAIMS THAT THE LEGISLATION IS PART OF AN MDC PLOT TO
ISOLATE AND IMPOVERISH THE COUNTRY.

--------------
ZAMBIA KEEPS ITS HEAD IN THE SAND
--------------


7. (C) DCM QUERIED SHAWA ABOUT THE EFFECTS ON ZAMBIA
OF THE GROWING CRISIS IN ZIMBABWE. SHAWA OBSERVED
THAT THERE WAS LITTLE CONCERN IN LUSAKA THAT THE
UNREST WOULD CROSS THE BORDER. LAND IS NOT AN ISSUE
IN ZAMBIA, RACIAL/ETHNIC CLEAVAGES RUN LESS DEEP, AND
THE WAR VETERAN PHENOMENON IS NON-EXISTENT. HE NOTED
THAT THIS IS NOT THE CASE IN SOUTH AFRICA, WHERE THERE
IS FERTILE SOIL FOR SIMILAR UNREST. DCM POINTED OUT
THAT WHILE ZAMBIA MAY NOT BE POLITICALLY VULNERABLE TO
THE ZIMBABWE DISEASE, IT IS NOT IMMUNE TO AN ECONOMIC
DOWNTURN IN A MAJOR TRADING PARTNER, POSSIBLE
INTERRUPTION OF VITAL TRANSPORTATION LINKS, OR EVEN
POTENTIAL REFUGEE FLOWS. SHAWA REPEATED THAT THE GRZ
IS NOT DEEPLY CONCERNED ABOUT THE EFFECTS OF THE
CRISIS, INCLUDING REFUGEE FLOWS. CLEAR-THINKING
REFUGEES WOULD HEAD SOUTH, NOT NORTH.

--------------
COMMENT
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 03 HARARE 02365 02 OF 02 091357Z
--------------


8. (C) THERE WAS NOT MUCH SURPRISING HERE OTHER THAN
EX-ZIPRA MEMBERS LOOKING TO SET THE HISTORICAL RECORD
STRAIGHT. WE CANNOT COMMENT ON SHAWA'S "ZAPU REBORN"
THEORY, ALTHOUGH IT IS WORTH CONSIDERING THE
POSSIBILITY THAT NDEBELE MEMBERS OF ZANU-PF MIGHT BE
EXAMINING THEIR OPTIONS. SHAWA'S COMMENTS ON THE SADC
ELECTION MONITORING MECHANISM WERE NOT ENCOURAGING.
CONCERTED EFFORT IN ALL SADC CAPITALS TO COUNTER GOZ
PRESSURE MAY BE ESSENTIAL TO PREVENT A SADC MONITORING
EXERCISE FROM BECOMING A ZANU-PF RUBBER STAMP.

HOOKS

CONFIDENTIAL

>