1. (C) RULING PARTY CANDIDATE AND MASHONALAND CENTRAL
GOVERNOR ELLIOT MANYIKA SOUNDLY DEFEATED OPPOSITION
CANDIDATE ELLIOT PFEBVE IN THE PARLIAMENTARY BY-ELECTION
HELD JULY 28-29 IN BINDURA DISTRICT. THE RULING ZANU-PF
WIDENED ITS MARGIN OF VICTORY CONSIDERABLY OVER LAST
JUNE'S PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION, IN WHICH THE MDC LOST BY
JUST OVER 2,000 VOTES. MANYIKA POLLED 15,864 VOTES
AGAINST 9,456 FOR PFEBVE, AN INCREASE OF 4,300 VOTES IN
THE RULING ZANU-PF'S MARGIN OF VICTORY OVER LAST YEAR.
THE BY-ELECTION WAS HELD TO REPLACE YOUTH DEVELOPMENT
MINISTER AND ZANU-PF COMMISSAR BORDER GEZI, WHO DIED IN
AN APRIL CAR ACCIDENT. THE TURNOUT OF 25,849 REGISTERED
VOTERS WAS VIRTUALLY THE SAME AS LAST JUNE. THE
DOMESTIC MONITORING ORGANIZATION ZIMBABWE ELECTION
SUPPORT NETWORK (ZESN) TOLD US THAT 56,651 VOTERS WERE
REGISTERED IN THE DISTRICT FOR THE ELECTION, A 6.5
PERCENT INCREASE OVER THE 53,191 REGISTERED LAST JUNE.
RINDAI CHIPFUNDE, COORDINATOR OF ZESN, SAID THE SIZE OF
THE INCREASE IN REGISTERED VOTERS RAISED EYEBROWS. SHE
SPECULATED THAT MOST OF THE NEWLY-REGISTERED VOTERS WERE
RECENTLY-RESETTLED PEASANT FARMERS, MOST OF WHOM SUPPORT
ZANU-PF. (COMMENT: THE INCREASE COULD ALSO BE
ATTRIBUTED TO REGISTRATION CAMPAIGNS BY BOTH ZANU-PF AND
MDC, BUT NOT TO DEMOGRAPHIC PATTERNS OR ECONOMIC GROWTH
IN THE REGION. END COMMENT.)

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2. (C) THE POLLING DAYS WERE MARRED BY A NUMBER OF
VIOLENT INCIDENTS. THE INDEPENDENT "DAILY NEWS"
REPORTED THAT ON 28 JULY, 21 MDC SUPPORTERS WERE
ABDUCTED BY ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS, AN MDC VEHICLE WAS
STONED, AND FOUR OTHER SUPPORTERS WERE BEATEN AND
HOSPITALIZED. THE PRESS REPORTED THAT ON 29 JULY,
POLICE DETAINED MDC CANDIDATE PFEBVE AND 25 OTHERS FOR
ALLEGEDLY GETTING TOO CLOSE TO A POLLING STATION. MDC
PRESIDENT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI TOLD US JULY 31 THAT ZANU-PF
BUSED LARGE NUMBERS OF PEOPLE INTO BINDURA CONSTITUENCY,
ESTABLISHED BASES THAT WERE USED BY WAR VETERANS AND
PARTY THUGS TO BEAT AND INTIMIDATE VOTERS, AND POSTED
200 ZANU-PF YOUTHS OUTSIDE EVERY POLLING CENTER, A
PRESENCE THAT WAS INEVITABLY INTIMIDATING TO VOTERS. HE
ADDED THAT IN LIGHT OF THESE EFFORTS, IT WOULD HAVE BEEN
NAIVE TO EXPECT THE ELECTION TO GO ANY OTHER WAY. THE
MDC HAD EXPECTED TO RECEIVE ABOUT 40 PERCENT OF THE
VOTES (ITS CANDIDATE RECEIVED 36 PERCENT), AND
TSVANGIRAI SAID THE MDC WOULD NOT CONTEST THE RESULT.

SIPDIS
MDC ELECTIONS DIRECTOR PAUL THEMBA NYATHI TOLD US
EARLIER THAT AN OPPOSITION WIN IN BINDURA COULD HAVE
SPARKED A MORE HARSH AND WIDESPREAD CRACKDOWN ON THE
MDC, OR HAVE CONVINCED ZANU-PF NOT TO HOLD MORE
ELECTIONS AS THEY COULD NOT WIN THEM. THE SEVERAL
MONTHS PRECEDING THE ELECTION WERE BADLY MARRED BY
POLITICAL VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION, MAINLY AT THE
EXPENSE OF MDC SUPPORTERS (REF B). HUNDREDS OF ZANU-PF
SUPPORTERS ATTACKED TSVANGIRAI'S MOTORCADE ON 22 JULY AS
HE TRIED TO CAMPAIGN FOR PFEBVE (REF A).



3. (C) COMMENT: THE BINDURA VOTE, THE FIRST
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PAGE 04 HARARE 02311 01 OF 02 011401Z
PARLIAMENTARY BY-ELECTION IN NEARLY SEVEN MONTHS, WAS A
CRUCIAL TEST FOR ZIMBABWE'S TWO MAIN PARTIES. THE
RESULT DEMONSTRATED THAT THERE ARE STILL A LARGE NUMBER
OF RURAL RESIDENTS WILLING TO VOTE FOR ZANU-PF; A HEAVY
INVESTMENT IN PATRONAGE AND GOVERNMENT HANDOUTS BY
BINDURA'S FORMER MP, BORDER GEZI, CERTAINLY HELPED
MAINTAIN SUPPORT AMONG THE RULING PARTY'S CORE CADRE IN
THE DISTRICT. DIRTY TRICKS, SUCH AS REGISTERING NON-
RESIDENT VOTERS AND TURNING AWAY SUSPECTED MDC
SUPPORTERS FROM THE POLLING BOOTH, PROBABLY PLAYED A
ROLE AS WELL. WE SUSPECT THAT VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION
WERE ALSO SIGNIFICANT FACTORS. MORE THAN HALF OF ALL
REGISTERED VOTERS STAYED HOME, AND THE NUMBER OF MDC
VOTES FELL BY 16 PERCENT FROM LAST YEAR. ZANU-PF'S
ABILITY TO CONCENTRATE ITS INTIMIDATION MACHINERY ON A
SINGLE DISTRICT ACCOUNTS FOR MUCH OF THE SWING IN VOTES
FROM LAST YEAR. THE MDC LIKELY WILL NOT CONSIDER THE
BINDURA RESULT A SIGNIFICANT BLOW TO ITS PRESIDENTIAL
PROSPECTS, GIVEN THAT MASHONALAND HAS LONG BEEN A ZANU-
PF STRONGHOLD. MDC SECRETARY-GENERAL WELSHMAN NCUBE
TOLD US RECENTLY THAT THE OPPOSITION PARTY NEEDS TO
GARNER 40 PERCENT OF THE VOTES IN MASHONALAND TO WIN THE
PRESIDENCY.



4. (C) COMMENT CONTINUED: THE ELECTION OF ELLIOT

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ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 AMAD-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 DINT-00
DODE-00 DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00 FAAE-00
FBIE-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 LAB-01
L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-01
PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 IRM-00
SSO-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-01
DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /010W


--------------------------

0CB300 011401Z /38
O 011355Z AUG 01
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9403
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 002311

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS
NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/01/11
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR ZI
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE RULING PARTY HANDILY WINS KEY BY-
ELECTION

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PAGE 02 HARARE 02311 02 OF 02 011401Z
MANYIKA PLACES HIM ON THE NATIONAL STAGE, AND HIS SEAT
IN PARLIAMENT IS A LIKELY STEPPING STONE TO NATIONAL
OFFICE. PRESIDENT MUGABE STILL HAS SEVERAL VACANT
CABINET POSITIONS, AND MANYIKA'S ABILITY TO HELP ZANU-PF
SECURE A CORE AREA OF SUPPORT MAY WELL BE REWARDED WITH
AN APPOINTMENT AS MINISTER OF YOUTH DEVELOPMENT, GENDER
AND EMPLOYMENT CREATION, GEZI'S OLD JOB. END COMMENT.

HOOKS

CONFIDENTIAL

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