DEFENSE MINISTER MAHACHI DIES SUDDENLY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 001727

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER

LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY

PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS

NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER

PASS USAID FOR AFR/SA - C. PALMA

PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER
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PAGE 02 HARARE 01727 01 OF 02 291521Z

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/29/11
TAGS: PGOV PINR ZI
SUBJECT: DEFENSE MINISTER MAHACHI DIES SUDDENLY
LEAVING A THIRD CABINET VACANCY IN A MONTH


CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES EARL M. IRVING FOR
REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) ADRESSEES WILL HAVE SEEN PRESS REPORTING OF THE
DEATH MAY 26 OF MINISTER OF DEFENSE MOVEN MAHACHI.
MAHACHI WAS IN THE BACK SEAT OF A HEAVILY LOADED LAND
ROVER DISCOVERY THAT WAS HIT BROADSIDE BY A CAR WHOSE
DRIVER WAS REPORTEDLY DRUNK. THE IMPACT CAUSED THE
MINISTER'S VEHICLE TO ROLL AND THE TALL MAHACHI, WHO WAS
SITTING HIGHER THAN OTHER PASSENGERS, WAS KILLED
INSTANTLY WHEN THE CAR'S ROOF COLLAPSED ON HIS HEAD,
ACCORDINQ TO EGYPTIAN DCM KADRI ABDEL-MOTTALEB, WHO
HEARD THE ACCOUNT OF ARMY COMMANDER CONSTANTINE
CHIWENGA. POLICE HAVE TAKEN PAINS TO SAY THAT THERE WAS
NOTHING SINISTER ABOUT THE CRASH, A WAY OF DYINQ LONQ
ASSOCIATED HERE WITH ZANU-PF POLITICAL ASSASSINATION.
MAHACHI'S DEMISE IN A ROAD TRAFFIC ACCIDENT IS THE
SECOND IN A MONTH (MINISTER OF YOUTH DEVELOPMENT, GENDER
AND EMPLOYMENT CREATION BORDER GEZI WAS KILLED ON APRIL
28) AND HAS LEFT PRESIDENT MUGABE REELING. THE LATE
DEFENSE MINISTER WAS ONE OF THE ZANU-PF "OLD GUARD," WHO
FOUGHT SIDE-HY-SIDE WITH MUQABE IN MOZAMBIQUE AND WAS A
MEMBER OF HIS DELEGATION AT THE LANCASTER HOUSE
CONSTITUTIONAL CONFERENCE.

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2. (C) MAHACHI'S DEATH CREATED THE THIRD CABINET
VACANCY IN A MONTH (MINISTER OF INDUSTRY AND
INTERNATIONAL COMMERCE NKOSANA MOYO RESIGNED SUDDENLY IN
EARLY MAY). IN ZIMBABWE DEPUTY MINISTERS DO NOT
AUTOMATICALLY SUBSTITUTE THEIR MINISTERS. MUGABE, WHO
IN THE PAST HAS BEEN KNOWN TO PUT OFF MAKING DECISIONS
ON CABINET APPOINTMENTS UNTIL THE URGENCY OF EVENTS
FORCES HIM TO TAKE ACTION, MUST BE FEELING THE PRESSURE
TO PUT TOGETHER A NEW TEAM. BOTH GEZI AND MAHACHI WERE
ELECTED MEMBERS OF PARLIAMENT AND THEIR VACANT SEATS
MUST BE FILLED WITH A BY-ELECTION. FORMER INDUSTRY
MINISTER MOYO -- WHO WAS NOT AN ELECTED MEMBER OF
PARLIAMENT -- DID NOT HAVE A DEPUTY; THE MINISTRY IS
BEING TEMPORARILY HEADED BY THE PERMANENT SECRETARY,
STUART COMBERBACH. COMBERBACH, ONE OF THE FEW SENIOR
WHITES REMAINING IN GOVERNMENT, IS A COMPETENT
TECHNOCRAT BUT, THOUGH CLOSE TO RETIRED ZANU-PF STALWART
NATHAN SHAMUYARIRA, IS SEEN AS A POLITICAL LIGHTWEIGHT.


3. (C) AT THIS WRITING WE CAN ONLY SPECULATE ABOUT WHOM
MUGABE WILL PLACE IN THESE VACANCIES. LAST JUNE THE NEW
CABINET HE ROLLED OUT APPEARED MEANT TO IMPRESS THE
WORLD THAT ZIMBABWE WAS READY TO TACKLE ITS ECONOMIC AND
POLITICAL PROBLEMS. THIS YEAR WE WOULD WAGER THAT THE
ZIMBABWEAN PRESIDENT WILL PLACE A PREMIUM ON LOYALTY FOR
HIS APPOINTMENTS, AND WILL AIM TO SELECT THOSE WILLING
TO DO EVERYTHING NECESSARY TO ENSURE HIS REELECTION IN

2002. WE DOUBT, FOR EXAMPLE, THAT DEPUTY MINISTER OF
YOUTH DEVELOPMENT, GENDER AND EMPLOYMENT CREATION SHUVAI
MAHOFA WILL BE PROMOTED TO MINISTER, AS SHE IS PERCEIVED
TO HAVE GOTTEN THE PORTFOLIO FOR BEING A PROTEGEE OF
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VICE PRESIDENT MUZENDA. SOME OBSERVERS PREDICT THE
MINISTRY MIGHT GO TO OLIVIA MUCHENA, CURRENTLY MINISTER
OF STATE IN VICE PRESIDENT MSIKA'S OFFICE. FILLING THE
DEFENSE PORTFOLIO IS ONE THAT WILL REQUIRE CONSULTATION
WITH THE CHIEFS OF THE ARMED FORCES AND ONE IN WHICH
SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT EMMERSON MNANGAGWA, WHOSE
COMMERCIAL BIDDING IN THE CONGO MAHACHI DID, WILL BE
INTIMATELY INVOLVED IN VETTING. IN ANY CASE, BALANCING
CROSS-CUTTING POLITICAL AND REGIONAL RIVALRIES,
CURRENTLY TEARING ZANU-PF APART, WILL BE FOREMOST ON THE
PRESIDENT'S MIND AS HE ASSEMBLES HIS NEW CABINET.


4. (C) MUGABE WILL BE HARD-PRESSED TO FIND SUPPORTERS
AS UNQUESTIONINGLY ENTHUSIASTIC AS GEZI AND MAHACHI. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT, GIVEN HIS PENCHANT FOR SPRINGING
SURPRISES, THE ZIMBABWEAN CHIEF EXECUTIVE COULD PROMOTE
A WAR VETERAN LEADER AS DEFENSE MINISTER IN A NOD TO
THAT CONSTITUENCY'S CURRENT IMPORTANCE, ALTHOUGH
NATIONAL LIBERATION WAR VETERANS' ASSOCIATION PRESIDENT
CHENJERAI HUNZVI IS SERIOUSLY ILL AND NOT EXPECTED TO
RECOVER HIS HEALTH. THE SO-CALLED WAR VETERANS WHO
COMPRISE ZANU-PF'S GANGSTER MILITIA, HOWEVER, WOULD NOT
COMMAND THE RESPECT OF PROFESSIONAL MILITARY OFFICERS,
WHO CONSIDER HUNZVI AND HIS ILK UNDISCIPLINED

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ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 DINT-00 DODE-00
DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00
VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00
AC-01 NSAE-00 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00
ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 SSO-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00
PMB-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /007W
-------------- F1C6FA 291521Z /38
O 291522Z MAY 01
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8976
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 001727

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER

LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY

PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS

NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER

PASS USAID FOR AFR/SA - C. PALMA

PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 01727 02 OF 02 291521Z

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/29/11
TAGS: PGOV PINR ZI
SUBJECT: DEFENSE MINISTER MAHACHI DIES SUDDENLY
LEAVING A THIRD CABINET VACANCY IN A MONTH

TROUBLEMAKERS. REGARDLESS OF WHOM HE ULTIMATELY CHOOSES
FOR THE THREE CABINET POSTS, WE HAVE NO DOUBT THAT
MUGABE WILL IMPOSE ORDER FROM THE TOP AND PROLONG ZANU-
PF'S PATHOLOGY. AS THE PARTY HAS NEITHER CARROTS TO
OFFER THE POPULATION NOR A TRACK RECORD ON WHICH TO RUN,
WE PREDICT THAT THE ZIMBABWEAN PRESIDENT WILL UNLEASH
UNPRECEDENTED LEVELS OF VIOLENCE ON THE POPULATION TO
COMPENSATE FOR THE VULNERABILITY HE IS FEELING. WITH
MAHACHI AND GEZI NOW CONSIGNED TO THE ASH HEAP OF
HISTORY, AND HUNZVI NOT FAR BEHIND, WE WILL HAVE TO
WATCH CLOSELY TO SEE WHETHER MUGABE IS ABLE TO FIND
OTHERS WILLING TO WAGE WAR AGAINST THEIR OWN PEOPLE WITH
AS MUCH RELISH.

IRVING

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