ACTIVITIES OF PHIEU AND MANH IN THE RUN-UP TO THE NINTH PARTY CONGRESS FORESHADOWED CHANGES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 06 HANOI 000952

SIPDIS

STATE FOR S/S-O, EAP, EAP/BCLTV, DRL, INR
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E.O. 12958: DECL: 2/13/2016
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TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR VM DPOL
SUBJECT: ACTIVITIES OF PHIEU AND MANH IN THE RUN-UP TO THE NINTH PARTY CONGRESS FORESHADOWED CHANGES

REF: A) HANOI 919 B) HANOI 890

C) 00 HANOI 670


1. (U) CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL COUNSELOR JAMES BRUNO;
REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D).


2. (C) SUMMARY: THE FIERCE JOCKEYING AMONG THE COMMUNIST
PARTY (CPV) LEADERSHIP THAT PEAKED AT THE APRIL 19-22 NINTH
PARTY CONGRESS HAS BEEN BUILDING FOR MONTHS. (REFTELS
DETAIL OUR EXPECTATION THAT NATIONAL ASSEMBLY SPEAKER MANH
WILL BE CROWNED AS THE NEW CPV GENERAL SECRETARY ON APRIL
22.) THE IN-FIGHTING THAT HAS LED TO THE ECLIPSE OF
INCUMBENT PHIEU HAS BECOME PARTICULARLY FEVERISH SINCE
OCTOBER, WHEN THE THREE SENIOR ADVISORS CIRCULATED A LETTER
RECOMMENDING HE STEP DOWN FOR POOR AND UNEVEN LEADERSHIP.
OVER THIS PERIOD, THE EMBASSY HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK THE
PUBLIC APPEARANCES OF THE POLITBURO IN VIETNAMESE OFFICIAL
MEDIA, AND THESE ACCOUNTS GIVE US INSIGHTS ABOUT HOW THE
LEADERSHIP "CAMPAIGN" HAS BEEN PLAYED OUT. IN RETROSPECT,
WE CAN SEE THAT PHIEU MADE A FURIOUS EFFORT, UNSUCCESSFUL
IN THE END, TO "BARNSTORM" THE COUNTRY BY VISITING KEY
PROVINCIAL PARTY LEADERS TO RALLY SUPPORT.


3. (C) SUMMARY (CONT'D): AS NOTED IN EARLIER REPORTS
DRAWING ON OUR YEAR-LONG TRACKING PROJECT, ROUGHLY HALF OF
THE POLITBURO -- INCLUDING "THE ONCE AND FUTURE LEADERS"
WHO SEEM THE MOST LIKELY CANDIDATES FOR THE NEXT GENERATION
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GENERAL SECRETARY, PRIME MINISTER AND PRESIDENT -- HAVE
HIGHLY VISIBLE PUBLIC ROLES. THE OTHER HALF OF THIS
POWERFUL BODY, HOWEVER, CONTINUES TO OPERATE IN THE
SHADOWS, SHIELDED FROM PUBLIC VIEW. THIS CABLE PROVIDES A
SNAPSHOT OF VIETNAM'S NEW LEADERSHIP, WHICH COMES OUT OF
THE OLD POLITBURO; SUMMARIZES OUR TRACKING OF THE
INCUMBENTS OVER THE PAST SIX MONTHS; AND INCLUDES IN-DEPTH
"PUBLIC PROFILES" OF OUTGOING GENERAL SECRETARY PHIEU AND
HIS EVIDENT SUCCESSOR MANH. (SEPTEL WILL PROFILE THE
REMAINING 16 MEMBERS OF THE POLITBURO.) END SUMMARY.

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SNAPSHOT OF VIETNAM'S NEW LEADERSHIP
--------------


4. (C) ON APRIL 21 THE DELEGATES TO THE NINTH COMMUNIST
PARTY CONGRESS WILL FORMALLY CAST THEIR VOTES FOR A NEW
150-MEMBER CENTRAL COMMITTEE. AS DETAILED REFTELS,
HOWEVER, THE DECISIONS HAVE ALREADY BEEN MADE, AND WHEN THE
RESULTS ARE ANNOUNCED OFFICIALLY APRIL 22, NATIONAL
ASSEMBLY SPEAKER NONG DUC MANH IS WIDELY ASSUMED TO BE
CONFIRMED AS THE NEW CPV GENERAL SECRETARY REPLACING LE KHA
PHIEU. FOLLOWING THE OPENING SESSION OF THE CONGRESS APRIL
19, PHIEU GRANTED A RARE IMPROMPTU INTERVIEW TO THE REUTERS
CORRESPONDENT, VIRTUALLY CONFIRMING HE WAS STEPPING DOWN TO
MAKE WAY FOR YOUNGER LEADERSHIP. (VIRTUALLY ALL OUR
SOURCES CONFIRM MANH'S ELEVATION.) ALSO NOTABLE IN PHIEU'S
COMMENTS WAS HIS MENTION THAT NEITHER HE NOR THE THREE
CURRENT "SENIOR ADVISORS" -- FORMER GENERAL SECRETARY DO
MUOI, FORMER PRESIDENT LE DUC ANH, AND FORMER PM VO VAN
KIET -- WOULD SERVE AS SENIOR ADVISORS. TWO SOURCES TELL
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US SEPARATELY THAT MANH ONLY AGREED TO TAKE THE JOB IF
THERE WOULD NOT BE ANY SENIOR ADVISORS LOOKING OVER HIS AND
THE REST OF THE POLITBURO'S SHOULDERS.


5. (C) REFTELS DETAIL THE LIKELY NEW ENTRIES TO THE
POLITBURO -- INCLUDING CPV MASS MOBILIZATION HEAD TRUONG
QUANG DUOC AND FORMER LABOR MINISTER NGUYEN DINH HOAN -- AS
WELL AS THE LIKELY RETIREMENT OF SEVEN PRIMARILY OLDER AND
LARGELY CONSERVATIVE MEMBERS. (DEPUTY PM CAM IS A
REFORMIST EXCEPTION AMONG THOSE RETIRING, BUT EXPECTED
RETIREES PHIEU, HO CHI MINH POLITICAL ACADEMY HEAD BINH,
FATHERLAND FRONT HEAD DUYET, HANOI PARTY CHIEF TUNG AND
ARMED FORCES POLITICAL COMMISSAR NGAN ALL HAVE BEEN AMONG
THE CURRENT IDEOLOGICAL OR THE STABILITY-FIRST-REFORM-
SECOND CAMPS.) IN ADDITION, THE NEW LEADERSHIP WILL HAVE
AN ENHANCED ROLE FOR TRADE MINISTER VU KHOAN, SET TO SERVE
AS DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER OVERSEEING FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND
TRADE ISSUES (NGUYEN MANH CAM'S OLD POSITION) AND REPORTED
TO MOVE INTO AN IMPORTANT COORDINATING POSITION AS HEAD OF
THE RECONSTITUTED POLITBURO SECRETARIAT. (COMMENT: ONE OF
THE MOST CAPABLE AND PRAGMATIC "REFORMERS" IN THE CENTRAL
COMMITTEE, VU KHOAN OF COURSE WAS KEY TO SIGNING OF THE
BILATERAL TRADE AGREEMENT WITH THE U.S. HIS ELEVATION TO A
POSITION OF GREATER INFLUENCE OVERALL CPV DECISION-MAKING
CAN ENHANCE THE REFORMIST CAUSE. END COMMENT.)


6. (C) ALL IN ALL, THESE CHANGES ADD UP TO A MORE
STREAMLINED LEADERSHIP THAT PROMISES TO BE MORE
PROFESSIONAL AND EFFICIENT. SEVERAL FACTORS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THIS: MANH, A PRAGMATIC MODERATE, HAS MUCH
BETTER SKILLS AS AN ADMINISTRATOR THAN PHIEU. HE IS WIDELY
RESPECTED (INCLUDING AMONG HIS STRONGLY REFORM-MINDED MID-
LEVEL STAFF) FOR HIS LEADERSHIP OF THE ASSEMBLY OVER THE
PAST DECADE, DURING WHICH HE DEMONSTRATED HIS SKILLS AS A
COALITION BUILDER. HE HAS SPENT THE PAST DECADE HELPING
GUIDE THE ASSEMBLY AS IT HAS ASSUMED AN INCREASINGLY
IMPORTANT ROLE IN CRAFTING LEGISLATION TO MEET NEW DEMANDS
AS VIETNAM HAS SHIFTED MORE TOWARD MARKET PRINCIPLES.
PERHAPS MOST IMPORTANTLY, IF THE SENIOR ADVISORS INDEED ARE
EXCLUDED FROM THE SCENE, THIS WILL BE A HUGE ADVANCE IN
ALLOWING THE POLITBURO TO FUNCTION MORE AS A MODERN PARTY
POLICY APPARATUS WITH MANH AS CEO.


7. (C) ANOTHER KEY DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE MILITARY LOOKS TO
HAVE ITS LOWEST SENIOR PROFILE IN MEMORY, PERHAPS EVER IN
THE HISTORY OF INDEPENDENT VIETNAM. IF, AS LOOKS LIKELY,
DEFENSE MINISTER TRA WILL BE LEFT AS THE SOLE MILITARY
REPRESENTATIVE ON A LEANER 15-MEMBER POLITBURO, THE
MILITARY'S ABILITY TO WEIGH IN WITH "NATIONAL SECURITY"
ARGUMENTS FOR GOING SLOW ON REFORM AND GUARDING AGAINST
FOREIGN THREATS WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN HISTORICALLY.
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FURTHERMORE, TRA IS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED PERSONALLY
FOLLOWING HIS SEVERE CENSURE BY THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE
EARLIER THIS MONTH FOR MISMANAGEMENT, IN PART BECAUSE OF
THE VIOLATION OF VIETNAMESE AIR SPACE BY VIETNAMESE-
AMERICAN ANTI-SRV ACTIVIST LY TONG. (NOTE: IT APPEARS
PUBLIC SECURITY MINISTER HUONG WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE
POLITBURO. END NOTE.) IN ADDITION, THOUGH THIS HAS NEVER
BEEN PUBLICLY ACKNOWLEDGED, SEVERAL SOURCES REPORT THAT
PART OF PHIEU'S DOWNFALL -- AND THE CENSURE OF TRA AND ARMY
CHIEF OF STAFF DUNG -- OWED TO HIS MISUSE OF MILITARY
INTELLIGENCE ASSETS TO EAVESDROP ON HIS POLITBURO AND
CENTRAL COMMITTEE PEERS. ANGER BY CENTRAL COMMITTEE
COLLEAGUES UPON DISCOVERY OF THIS REPORTED CAMPAIGN,
RUMORED TO BE A WEAPON IN PHIEU'S CRITICISM/SELF-CRITICISM
INITIATIVE, MAY HAVE PLAYED A ROLE IN THE MILITARY'S
WEAKENED LEADERSHIP PROFILE.

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THE NEW LEADERSHIP GROWS OUT OF THE OLD:
"PUBLIC AND PRIVATE FACES" OF POLITBURO PRIOR TO CONGRESS
-------------- --------------


8. (SBU) AS THE NEW VIETNAMESE LEADERSHIP IS UNVEILED THIS
WEEKEND, IT IS AN INSTRUCTIVE MOMENT TO ANALYZE WHAT
BROUGHT ABOUT THESE CHANGES. SINCE THE POLITBURO IS SUCH
AN OPAQUE AND SECRETIVE BODY -- AND SUSPICION OF THE U.S.
CONTINUES TO RUN HIGH, PARTICULARLY AMONG THE SECURITY-
MINDED MINISTRIES AND CPV CADRE -- WE OFTEN OBTAIN ONLY
INDIRECT INSIGHTS INTO THE WORKINGS OF THIS GROUP. AS PART
OF THE EMBASSY'S ONGOING TRACKING PROJECT OF THE PUBLIC
FACES OF THE POLITBURO IN THE VIETNAMESE MEDIA OVER THE
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PAST YEAR, WE HAVE CONTINUED TO TALLY HOW FREQUENTLY AND IN
WHAT MANNER VIETNAM'S MAJOR DAILY PAPERS TRACK THE
APPEARANCES OF THE MOST SENIOR COMMUNIST PARTY (CPV)
MEMBERS. (IN PARTICULAR WE EXAMINED THE CPV MOUTHPIECE
"THE PEOPLE" AND TWO LEADING DAILIES IN THE LARGEST CITIES:
"NEW HANOI" AND "SAIGON LIBERATION." WHILE NOT A
COMPREHENSIVE LISTING, THIS GIVES US A GOOD SURVEY OF HOW
THE LEADERSHIP IS FEATURED IN THE MOST PROMINENT OFFICIAL
PUBLICATIONS.)


9. (SBU) IN THE LAST SIX MONTHS, FROM OCTOBER 1, 2000-MARCH
31, 2001, IN THE RUN-UP TO THE NINTH COMMUNIST PARTY
CONGRESS, WE CONTINUED TO SEE THE SAME TRENDS ORIGINALLY
DOCUMENTED PREVIOUSLY: ROUGHLY HALF OF THE POLITBURO HAVE
POSITIONS WITH LARGELY "PUBLIC" FACES THAT INVOLVE
SIGNIFICANT APPEARANCES IN THE PUBLIC EYE. THE OTHER HALF
WORKS LARGELY IN POSITIONS DEALING WITH INTERNAL CPV
AFFAIRS AND REGULAR FROM REGULAR PUBLIC EXPOSURE. THUS,
TRACKING THE PUBLIC APPEARANCES OF THE POLITBURO IN THE
STATE-CONTROLLED MEDIA GIVES ONLY AN INCOMPLETE, PARTIAL
VIEW OF THE ACTIVITIES AND IMPORTANCE OF SENIOR LEADERS.
BUT IT REVEALS HOW THE CPV WISHES TO CONVEY ITSELF TO ITS
PUBLIC, AND THUS IS A USEFUL PIECE OF THE PUZZLE IN
ANALYZING THE ROLES AND RESPONSIBILITIES OF THE LEADERSHIP
ELITE.


10. (SBU) DURING THIS PERIOD, NOT SURPRISINGLY, AMONG THE
MOST PROMINENTLY FEATURED POLITBURO FIGURES IN THE MEDIA
WERE THE TOP FIVE OFFICIALS WHO CONSTITUTE THE STANDING
COMMITTEE. EACH OF THEM HAS AN IMPORTANT "PUBLIC
RESPONSIBILITY" REPRESENTING THE CPV AND THE GOVERNMENT:
CPV GENERAL SECRETARY PHIEU, PRESIDENT LUONG, PRIME
MINISTER KHAI, NATIONAL ASSEMBLY SPEAKER MANH, AND
FATHERLAND FRONT CHAIR DUYET. IN ADDITION, FIRST DEPUTY
PRIME MINISTER DUNG, HANOI PARTY CHIEF TRONG, HO CHI MINH
CITY PARTY CHIEF TRIET AND DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER CAM ALSO
MAINTAINED PROMINENT PUBLIC PROFILES IN THE MEDIA. OF ALL
OF THESE MENTIONED ABOVE, THEIR PUBLIC PROFILE REFLECTS
GENERALLY THEIR RELATIVE CLOUT AS AMONG THE KEY "PLAYERS"
IN THE CPV LEADERSHIP AND GOVERNMENT. DEPUTY PM CAM IS
PERHAPS THE ONE EXCEPTION. AS DEPUTY PM OVERSEEING FOREIGN
AFFAIRS AND TRADE ISSUES, HIS PUBLIC PROFILE IS DRIVEN BY
FOREIGN VISITORS. HE ALMOST CERTAINLY WILL RETIRE AT THE
CPV CONGRESS.


11. (SBU) MOST ALL OF THE LEADERS MENTIONED ABOVE HAVE
FIGURED PROMINENTLY IN THE JOCKEYING OVER THE PAST MONTHS
FOR A SPOT IN THE NEW SLATE OF LEADERS TO BE APPROVED AT
THE CONGRESS -- PHIEU, MANH, LUONG, TRONG, DUNG AND TRIET.
IN FACT, ONLY ONE OTHER POLITBURO MEMBER APPEARS TO HAVE
BEEN CONSIDERED FOR A POSSIBLE SENIOR POSITION WHO IS NOT
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IN THIS "PUBLIC GROUP": CPV ORGANIZATIONAL AFFAIRS CHIEF
NGUYEN VAN AN. AN, A FINALIST WHO LOST OUT TO PHIEU FOR
THE TOP JOB IN 1997, HAS REMAINED LARGELY IN THE SHADOWS
SINCE THEN. IN THE ENDGAME TO SUCCEED PHIEU, HE AGAIN
PROVED TO BE THE MAIN ALTERNATIVE. AT THE PRE-CONGRESS
MEETING APRIL 16 HE REPORTEDLY RECEIVED SERIOUS
CONSIDERATION FOR THE POST AFTER MANH INITIALLY DEMURRED.
(IN THE END, MANH APPARENTLY DID SO FOR TACTICAL REASONS,
IN PART TO SECURE THE WITHDRAWAL OF ALL SENIOR ADVISORS
FROM THE SCENE.)

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PHIEU BARNSTORMED TO TRY TO SAVE HIS SKIN ...
--------------


12. (C) LE KHA PHIEU, 69, HAS SERVED AS GENERAL SECRETARY
SINCE DECEMBER 1997. A YEAR AGO HE SEEMED FIRMLY ENSCONCED
IN HIS POSITION AND LOOKED TO HAVE CONSOLIDATED POWER WITH
THE AID OF FORMER PRESIDENT ANH, HIMSELF A MILITARY MAN.
HOWEVER, ANH AND THE OTHER SENIOR ADVISORS TURNED AGAINST
PHIEU, OWING TO HIS POOR MANAGEMENT OF CPV AFFAIRS AND
MISCUES ON ECONOMIC REFORM AND RELATIONS WITH CHINA AND THE
U.S., AS WELL AS RUMORED MISUSE OF MILITARY INTELLIGENCE
AGAINST HIS CPV SENIOR COLLEAGUES. PHIEU ALSO MAY HAVE
OVERREACHED BY TRYING TO COMBINE THE PRESIDENCY WITH THE
GENERAL SECRETARY POST -- A COMBINATION THAT WOULD HAVE
DISRUPTED THE TRADITIONAL, CAREFULLY BALANCED ARRANGEMENT
AMONG THE THREE TOP LEADERS REPRESENTING VIETNAM'S THREE
REGIONS AND ALSO DIFFERENT POLICY LINES AND ORGANIZATIONAL
ENTITIES (CPV, MILITARY, GOVERNMENT). THE COUP DE GRACE
MAY WELL HAVE BEEN HIS CALLING FOR ELIMINATING THE SENIOR
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ADVISOR POSITIONS. (IRONICALLY, IT APPEARS MANH WILL BE
SUCCESSFUL WHERE PHIEU FAILED, WITH THE SENIOR ADVISORS
AGREEING TO STEP BACK. IN ADDITION, RUMORS CIRCULATE APRIL
20 THAT MANH ALSO MAY HAVE BEEN OFFERED THE TWO CONCURRENT
POSTS OF PRESIDENT AND GENERAL SECRETARY, WITH CURRENT
PRESIDENT LUONG RUMORED TO BE MOVING OVER TO NATIONAL
ASSEMBLY CHAIR. WHILE POSSIBLE, WE DOUBT THIS WILL TAKE
PLACE AT THIS TIME.)


13. (SBU) IN OUR TRACKING SURVEY OVER THE PAST SIX MONTHS,
PHIEU WAS FEATURED ON 79 DIFFERENT DATES IN PAGE ONE
ARTICLES IN THE MEDIA, AND BEFITTING HIS POSITION AS THE
COUNTRY'S MOST POWERFUL FIGURE, HE WAS DEPICTED LEADING THE
CPV AND NATION IN ITS POLITICAL LIFE. ONE OF THE STRIKING
THINGS WE NOTE FROM OUR TRACKING PROJECT IS HOW ACTIVE
PHIEU WAS OVER THE PAST SIX MONTHS IN "BARNSTORMING" THE
COUNTRY, VISITING LOCAL PARTY CONGRESSES IN FAR-FLUNG
PROVINCES AND ALL THE COUNTRY'S MAJOR CITIES. SOURCES TELL
US THIS HAS BEEN A KEY PART OF PHIEU'S STRATEGY IN RALLYING
SUPPORT TO RESIST THE CAMPAIGN OF THE THREE SENIOR
ADVISORS, ANH, MUOI AND KIET, TO HAVE HIM STEP DOWN. (OF
COURSE, THE LETTER OF THE SENIOR ADVISORS AND OTHER
BACKROOM POLITICKING THAT WOULD BE A STAPLE OF POLITICAL
REPORTING IN WASHINGTON, BANGKOK OR MANILA HAS NEVER BEEN
MENTIONED IN VIETNAMESE STATE-RUN MEDIA. THE FOREIGN
CORRESPONDENTS BASED HERE HAVE REPORTED WIDELY ON THIS, OF
COURSE.)


14. (SBU) AMONG OTHER CPV GATHERINGS, PHIEU WAS FEATURED
PROMINENTLY IN "THE PEOPLE" GIVING KEYNOTE ADDRESSES TO THE
PARTY CONGRESSES FOR KEY ORGANIZATIONS, SUCH AS THE
MINISTRY OF PUBLIC SECURITY'S GENERAL POLICE DEPARTMENT
(NOV. 8),THE CPV CONGRESSES FOR MILITARY REGIONS 3 (NOV.
13) AND 5 (NOV. 21),AND THE CIVIL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION
(NOV. 28). HIS KEYNOTE ADDRESSES OPENING AND CLOSING EACH
OF THE CPV CENTRAL COMMITTEE PLENUMS WERE REPRINTED IN THE
STATE MEDIA. PHIEU WAS DEPICTED MEETING PRESIDENT CLINTON
NOV. 18, AND VIETNAMESE MEDIA WENT TO UNPRECEDENTED EFFORTS
TO DESCRIBE PHIEU'S MEETING WITH THE PRESIDENT, INCLUDING
HIS STRIDENT DEFENSE OF SOCIALISM, WHICH PROVED TO BE ONE
OF THE FACTORS THAT CONTRIBUTED TO THE BROAD CRITICISM OF
PHIEU, PARTICULARLY FROM REFORMERS IN THE CPV.


15. (SBU) PHIEU WAS ALSO FEATURED ADDRESSING PROVINCIAL
PARTY CONGRESSES AROUND THE COUNTRY, INCLUDING THOSE IN HA
GIANG IN THE FAR NORTH (DEC. 4),HO CHI MINH CITY (DEC.
19),HANOI (DEC. 28),NINH BINH AND THANH HOA (JAN. 2),
AMONG MANY OTHERS. PHIEU ALSO ADDRESSED THE NATIONAL
MILITARY CONGRESS AND WAS AWARDED A GOLDEN STAR MEDAL BY
THE PAVN GENERAL POLITICAL DEPARTMENT, WHICH HE FORMERLY
HEADED. IN ADDITION, PHIEU TRAVELED AROUND THE COUNTRY FOR
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MANY OTHER REPRESENTATIONAL FUNCTIONS; HE VISITED FLOODED
AN GIANG PROVINCE IN THE MEKONG DELTA IN EARLY OCTOBER AND
FLOODED REGIONS OF HCMC AT THE END OF THE MONTH. HE MET
MANY OTHER VISITING DIGNITARIES, RANGING FROM THE ALGERIAN
PRESIDENT (OCT. 16),A VISITING CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY
DELEGATION ATTENDING A WORKSHOP ON SOCIALISM (NOV. 11),THE
INDIAN PRIME MINISTER (JAN. 9),THE PRC DEFENSE MINISTER
(FEB. 9),THE CUBAN FOREIGN MINISTER (FEB. 24),AND RUSSIAN
PRESIDENT PUTIN (MARCH 2). IN SUM, PHIEU MAINTAINED AN
ACTIVE PUBLIC SCHEDULE, PARTICULARLY WHEN ONE NOTES HIS
NURTURING OF KEY CPV ALLIES IN THE MILITARY, PUBLIC
SECURITY AND PARTY CADRE AREAS.

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... WHILE MANH'S ONGOING NETWORKING MADE ALLIES OVER TIME
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16. (C) NATIONAL ASSEMBLY CHAIRMAN NONG DUC MANH, 60, IN
CONTRAST TO PHIEU, SEEMS TO HAVE SLOWLY AND STEADILY
DEVELOPED A BROAD NETWORK OF ADMIRERS AND SUPPORTERS IN
SENIOR CPV RANKS. IN THE END, HIS STRONG SUPPORT AMONG THE
CENTRAL COMMITTEE APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN THE DECISIVE FACTOR
IN BRINGING HIM TO HIS LIKELY "CORONATION" APRIL 22 AS THE
NEW GENERAL SECRETARY. CONTRASTED WITH HIS PREDECESSORS
PHIEU, DO MUOI, TRUONG CHINH AND LE DUAN, WHO USED EITHER
REVOLUTIONARY OR MILITARY CREDENTIALS TO REACH THE TOP
SPOT, MANH'S PATH TO THE SEAT OF POWER WAS BUILT PATIENTLY
THROUGH HIS WORK AS HEAD OF THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY SINCE

1992. TRADITIONALLY, THE ASSEMBLY HAS BEEN A WEAK
RUBBERSTAMP IN VIETNAMESE POLITICS, BUT MANH PRESIDED OVER
A PERIOD OF THE ASSEMBLY'S ASSUMING MUCH GREATER PROMINENCE
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AS A MORE GENUINELY DELIBERATIVE BODY. ON OCCASION THE
ASSEMBLY HAS BUCKED THE POLITBURO'S RECOMMENDATIONS AND
PRESSED FOR THE SACKING OF NOMINATED CANDIDATES DEEMED
INCOMPETENT. ALSO DURING HIS TENURE THE ASSEMBLY BEGAN
LIVE QUESTIONING OF MINISTERS ON NATIONAL TELEVISION AND
VIGOROUSLY DEBATED SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC ISSUES, WITH MEMBERS
STRONGLY DEFENDING THE INTERESTS OF THEIR LOCAL
CONSTITUENTS. IF ANYTHING, MANH'S PUBLIC VISIBILITY AND
THE ROLE HE WAS PLAYING TO MEET PUBLIC INTERESTS ENHANCED
HIS RECOGNITION IN LEADERSHIP AS WELL AS PUBLIC CIRCLES.


17. (C) MANH'S SMOOTH STYLE OF MANAGING THE ASSEMBLY --
BUSINESS-LIKE AND COMMITTED TO BUILDING BROAD COALITIONS
AMONG THE CPV'S DISPARATE FACTIONS AND SECTORAL GROUPS
REPRESENTED IN THE FATHERLAND FRONT -- HAS WON HIGH MARKS.
HIS STRONG "CORRIDOR REPUTATION" IN THE HALLS OF THE
ASSEMBLY HAS BEEN BUILT PATIENTLY OVER A DECADE OF WORK;
CONSISTENTLY OVER THE PAST YEAR HE HAS POLLED AMONG THE
MOST RESPECTED MEMBERS OF THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE. ONE KEY
LIEUTENANT AT THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY SAYS MANH IS "DEVOTED,
WORK-ORIENTED AND CLEAN," WITHOUT THE CORRUPTION
ALLEGATIONS HANGING OVER HIM THAT OTHERS (INCLUDING PHEIU)
HAVE FACED RECENTLY. MANH REPORTEDLY IS A "GOOD LISTENER,"
AND WE HAVE NOTED HE IS AN ENGAGING INTERLOCUTOR FOR
VISITING MEMBERS OF CONGRESS. MANH'S LIEUTENANT SAYS HIS
MENTOR, HOWEVER, MAY NOT HAVE DEEP SUPPORT FROM KEY
FACTIONS IN THE CPV'S SENIOR RANKS -- THOUGH HE COMMANDS
BROAD SUPPORT -- AND THIS COULD COMPLICATE HIS EARLY TIME
IN OFFICE. A DEPUTY HEAD OF THE GOVERNMENT'S ETHNIC
MINORITIES COMISSION, WHO FORMERLY WORKED FOR MANH, SAID HE
IS PRAGMATIC, COLLABORATIVE AND RESPECTFUL OF OTHERS, AND
THESE PERSONAL TRAITS ARE PART OF THE SOURCE OF HIS APPEAL.


18. (SBU) DURING THE OCTOBER-MARCH PERIOD, MANH WAS
FEATURED 53 TIMES IN THE THREE KEY VIETNAMESE PRESS ORGANS
WE ANALYZED. ON NOVEMBER 14 HE OPENED THE FALL SESSION OF
THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY, PRESIDING OVER THE BODY'S BUSINESS
UNTIL ITS RECESS DECEMBER 9. THE FALL SESSION PRIMARILY
FOCUSED ON DISCUSSION AND APPROVAL OF THE 2001 BUDGET AND
SOCIO-ECONOMIC PLAN, THOUGH LIKE OTHER SESSIONS IT INCLUDED
QUESTIONING OF MINISTERS AND A MODEST LAWMAKING AGENDA
(WHICH IN THE FALL SESSION IS GENERALLY LIGHTER THAN THE
SPRING'S). FOLLOWING THE FALL SESSION, HE CHAIRED THE
MONTHLY MEETINGS OF THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY STANDING
COMMITTEE, WHICH CONDUCTS THE ASSEMBLY'S ONGOING BUSINESS
THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.


19. (C) A LARGE PORTION OF MANH'S "PUBLIC" APPEARANCES IN
THE MEDIA WAS TIED TO PROTOCOL FUNCTIONS AS HEAD OF THE
ASSEMBLY: ON OCTOBER 4 HE MET THE CHAIRMAN OF THE VISITING
JAPAN-VIETNAM FRIENDSHIP PARLIAMENTARIANS ASSOCIATION (WHO
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HAS RETURNED THIS WEEK AS ONE OF THE VISITING DELEGATIONS
TO THE CONGRESS). HE ALSO RECEIVED PARLIAMENTARY
DELEGATIONS FROM CAMBODIA, AUSTRALIA, MONGOLIA, FRANCE,
THAILAND AND LAOS, AMONG OTHERS. ON MARCH 2 HE MET
VISITING RUSSIAN PRESIDENT PUTIN. ON NOVEMBER 17 HE MET
WITH SEN. KERRY AND FOUR HOUSE MEMBERS ACCOMPANYING
PRESIDENT CLINTON ON HIS HISTORIC TRIP TO VIETNAM. IN THIS
MEETING, MANH DEFENDED THE 15 YEARS OF ACHIEVEMENTS OF THE
"DOI MOI" (RENOVATION) PROCESS, AND, IN RESPONSE TO KERRY'S
QUESTION, SAID VIETNAM DID NOT NEED MULTIPLE PARTIES SINCE
"ALL SECTOR GROUPS" OF VIETNAM ARE REPRESENTED IN THE
ASSEMBLY, THE CPV AND THE FATHERLAND FRONT. (COMMENT:
WHILE CLEARLY A PRAGMATIC, MORE MODERN LEADER THAN PHIEU,
MANH TO ALL APPEARANCES IS A LOYAL, COMMITTED COMMUNIST WHO
DOES NOT ENVISION ANY "EVOLUTION" TO A MULTI-PARTY SYSTEM.
END COMMENT.) IN JANUARY MANH MET THE VISITING GEPHARDT
CODEL.


20. (SBU) MANH ALSO CARRIED WATER FOR THE CPV IN ITS
INTERNAL PREPARATIONS FOR THE CONGRESS. HE ADDRESSED
PROVINCIAL PARTY CONGRESSES IN BAC GIANG IN DECEMBER AND
BAC KAN AND THAI NGUYEN IN JANUARY. HE ATTENDED THE HANOI
CPV CONGRESS IN DECEMBER, AND WAS FEATURED ATTENDING BOTH
ROUNDS OF THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE'S 11TH PLENUMS DURING THE
PERIOD (INCLUDING THE FINAL 12TH PLENUM AND PRE-CONGRESS
ONLY DAYS AGO IN MID-APRIL). ON DECEMBER 1, HE, LIKE ALL
THE OTHER SENIOR LEADERS, ATTENDED A GATHERING FOR LE DUC
ANH'S 80TH BIRTHDAY. FOR TET CELEBRATIONS IN LATE JANUARY
HE JOINED A CPV DELEGATION PAYING TRIBUTE TO HO CHI MINH;
VISITED THE HAI BA TRUNG DISTRICT OF HANOI, WHICH HE
FORMALLY REPRESENTS IN THE ASSEMBLY; AND TRAVELED TO VINH
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PHUC PROVINCE. IN FEBRUARY HE WAS DEPICTED COMMEMORATING
THE 71ST ANNIVERSARY OF THE FOUNDING OF THE CPV.


21. (SBU) AS PART OF HIS NATIONAL ASSEMBLY AND CPV DUTIES,
MANH HAD A WIDE RANGE OF MEETINGS THAT CAN BE SEEN IN
RETROSPECT AS PART OF THE BROAD "CONSTITUENT BUILDING" HE
HAS DONE DURING THE PAST DECADE. AS A GOOD LISTENER AND
ENGAGING CONVERSATIONALIST, MANH HAS BEEN QUIETLY BUILDING
A WELLSPRING OF GOOD OPINION THROUGH THESE KINDS OF
MEETING. ON OCT. 19 HE ATTENDED THE 70TH ANNIVERSARY OF
THE FOUNDING OF THE VIETNAM WOMEN'S UNION. THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD, HE WAS PICTURED IN THE PRESS MEETING WITH
VIETNAMESE GROUPS HANDLING THE PRESS, POVERTY REDUCTION
PROGRAMS, THE RAILWAY SERVICE, THE POSTAL SERVICE, WOMEN'S
ISSUES, AND THE CPV YOUTH UNION, AMONG MANY OTHERS.


22. (C) A MEMBER OF THE ETHNIC TAY MINORITY, AND THE ONLY
MINORITY MEMBER SERVING IN THE POLITBURO, MANH HELD A HIGH
PROFILE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD MEETING MINORITY MEMBERS. HE
HELD WORKING SESSIONS WITH CPV LEADERS OF THE COMMITTEE FOR
ETHNIC PEOPLE AND MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS, MET MINORITY
REPRESENTATIVES FROM QUANG NINH AND DAKLAK PROVINCES IN
HANOI, AND VISITED SEVERAL PROVINCES WITH LARGE MINORITY
POPULATIONS. FROM OCT. 12-16 HE VISITED FLOOD VICTIMS IN
NORTHWESTERN LAI CHAU PROVINCE AND HAD WORKING MEETINGS
THERE. ON MARCH 9 HE SPOKE TO 60 ETHNIC MINORITY OFFICIALS
FROM DAKLAK WHO ARE ATTENDING THE PROVINCE'S CPV POLITICS
SCHOOL. MANH APPEALED TO MINORITIES TO OBEY THE LAW AND
COOPERATE WITH AUTHORITIES, PRAISED MINORITIES'
CONTRIBUTIONS TO NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT, AND URGED TEACHERS
TO FOCUS ON PRACTICAL KNOWLEDGE IN THEIR CLASSES.
(COMMENT: PARTICULARLY IN THE WAKE OF FEBRUARY'S SOMETIMES-
VIOLENT DEMONSTRATIONS IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS, WE EXPECT
MANH WILL BE PUT FORWARD MORE FREQUENTLY AS A NEW SIGN OF
THE CPV'S TOLERANCE INTEGRATION OF MINORITIES. UNDER
MANH'S LEADERSHIP WE DO NOT EXPECT DRAMATIC CHANGES IN
VIETNAM'S POLICIES TOWARD MINORITIES, HOWEVER. SENIOR CPV
LEADERS ANNOUNCED THIS WEEK THE GVN WILL UNDERTAKE A
REINVIGORATED DEVELOPMENT PLAN TO HELP THE SEVERELY
IMPOVERISHED CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. CLEARLY THIS AREA HAS
GOTTEN THE ATTENTION OF SENIOR LEADERS, AND WE BELIEVE THEY
RECOGNIZE THAT DRAMATIC IMPROVEMENTS IN THE LIVES OF THE
REGION'S "MONTAGNARDS" ARE NEEDED IF THERE IS NOT TO BE
FURTHER RADICALIZATION OF THE CITIZENS. HOWEVER,
TRANSLATING SUCH CONCERN INTO ACTION IS A HUGE CHALLENGE
FOR THE GVN. END COMMENT.)

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23. (C) COMMENT: ONE OF THE MOST STRIKING INSIGHTS TO COME
FROM OUR TRACKING PROJECT IS HOW MANH HAS QUIETLY AND
CONSISTENTLY BEEN BUILDING PERSONAL SUPPORT AMONG THE CPV'S
DISPARATE CONSTITUENT GROUPS THROUGHOUT THE PAST MONTHS AND
YEARS. IN THE END, HIS WINSOME THOUGH NON-CHARISMATIC
PERSONALITY, HIS PRAGMATIC POLICY BENT, HIS PERSONAL LACK
OF "SCANDAL," AND HIS COLLEGIAL LISTENING SKILLS SEEM TO
HAVE WON THE DAY IN THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE. LIKE ALL THOSE
WHO WIN CAMPAIGNS, HOWEVER, NOW COMES THE HARD PART. END
COMMENT.
PETERSON

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