Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
01HANOI905
2001-04-17 10:58:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Hanoi
Cable title:  

CENTRAL COMMITTEE PRESSURES GENERAL SECRETARY TO STEP DOWN; ASSEMBLY SPEAKER MANH APPARENT SUCCESSOR

Tags:  PGOV PREL PINR VM DPOL 
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171058Z Apr 01

 2001HANOI00905 - CONFIDENTIAL
 
 
 
 CONFIDENTIAL PTQ2273

PAGE 01 HANOI 00905 01 OF 02 171111Z 
ACTION EAP-00 

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 SMEC-00 DINT-00 DOTE-00 
 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 H-01 
 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 
 OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 
 P-00 SP-00 IRM-00 SSO-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 
 DSCC-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /008W
 ------------------E03264 171111Z /38 
FM AMEMBASSY HANOI
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2583
INFO ASEAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
JOINT STAFF WASHDC PRIORITY
USCINCPAC HONOLULU HI//J5/FPA// PRIORITY
DIA WASHDC PRIORITY
USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HANOI 000905 

SIPDIS

STATE FOR S/S-O, EAP, EAP/BCLTV, DRL, INR
NSC FOR EAST ASIAN DIRECTORATE
SECDEF FOR ISA/EAP STERN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2/13/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR VM DPOL
SUBJECT: CENTRAL COMMITTEE PRESSURES GENERAL SECRETARY TO STEP DOWN; ASSEMBLY SPEAKER MANH APPARENT SUCCESSOR

REF: HANOI 638

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HANOI 000905

SIPDIS

STATE FOR S/S-O, EAP, EAP/BCLTV, DRL, INR
NSC FOR EAST ASIAN DIRECTORATE
SECDEF FOR ISA/EAP STERN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2/13/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR VM DPOL
SUBJECT: CENTRAL COMMITTEE PRESSURES GENERAL SECRETARY TO STEP DOWN; ASSEMBLY SPEAKER MANH APPARENT SUCCESSOR

REF: HANOI 638


1. (U) CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL OFFICER DAVID YOUNG;
REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D).


2. (C) SUMMARY: ONLY DAYS BEFORE THE NINTH COMMUNIST PARTY
CONGRESS BEGINS APRIL 19, THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE HAS DEALT
GENERAL SECRETARY PHIEU A SEVERE BLOW BY REFUSING TO
RECOMMEND HIM FOR ANOTHER TERM. A PREFERENCE BALLOT AMONG
THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE GAVE TOP MARKS TO NATIONAL ASSEMBLY
SPEAKER NONG DUC MANH, AND SEVERAL SOURCES REPORT HE WAS
CONFIRMED AT A PRE-CONGRESS MEETING APRIL 16 TO BE THE NEXT
GENERAL SECRETARY. HO CHI MINH CITY PARTY CHIEF TRIET, WHO
ALSO RECEIVED SOME SUPPORT FOR THE TOP POST, REPORTEDLY
WILL SUCCEED KHAI AS PRIME MINISTER, BEING "ELECTED" BY THE
NATIONAL ASSEMBLY IN MAY. PRESIDENT LUONG REPORTEDLY WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE CONFLICTING PRESS REPORT HAS CPV
ORGANIZATIONAL CHIEF AN PEGGED AS GENERAL SECRETARY; WE
PREDICT HE WILL REMAIN IN THE POLITBURO AND COULD LAND
ANOTHER SENIOR POSITION.


3. (C) SUMMARY (CONT'D): NONE OF THIS IS FINAL UNTIL
CONFIRMED BY THE PARTY CONGRESS, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
ANNOUNCE THE DECISIONS BY THIS WEEKEND. MANH, WHO IS A
MODERATE IN THE LEADERSHIP AND HAS HELPED PROFESSIONALIZE
THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY AND GRADUALLY EXPAND ITS INFLUENCE,
AND THE DYNAMIC SOUTHERN REFORMER TRIET IN TIME MAY ADD A
NEW DYNAMISM TO THE FACTIONALIZED LEADERSHIP. OTHER
REFORMERS APPARENTLY BOUND FOR THE POLITBURO INCLUDE TRADE
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 03 HANOI 00905 01 OF 02 171111Z
MINISTER VU KHOAN AND DEPUTY PM KHIEM. IN THE SHORT TERM,
HOWEVER, THE LEADERSHIP LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN A
FUNDAMENTALLY CAUTIOUS GROUP. OVER TIME, THOUGH, GREATER
PROMINENCE FOR MORE DYNAMIC REFORMERS WILL HELP BOOST THE
PACE OF AND THE LEADERSHIP'S COMMITMENT TO THE ECONOMIC
REFORM PROGRAM. END SUMMARY.

CENTRAL COMMITTEE TELLS PHIEU HE NEEDS TO GO
--------------


4. (C) SEVERAL SOURCES REPORT THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE WEIGHED
IN STRONGLY AGAINST GENERAL SECRETARY LE KHA PHIEU AT THE
RECENTLY COMPLETED 12TH PLENUM. DURING THE PLENUM, PHIEU

SOUGHT TO RETAIN HIS SUPREME POSITION, BUT RECEIVED ONLY
40-45 PERCENT OF THE VOTES OF THE ROUGHLY 165 CENTRAL
COMMITTEE MEMBERS. ON A SUBSEQUENT BALLOT, WHICH WAS A
"PREFERENCE" VOTE FOR THE TOP JOB, NATIONAL ASSEMBLY
SPEAKER NONG DUC MANH REPORTEDLY RECEIVED ABOUT 40 PERCENT
OF THE VOTES, HO CHI MINH CITY CPV CHIEF NGUYEN MINH TRIET
RECEIVED 30 PERCENT, AND THE REMAINDER WAS SPLIT BETWEEN
HANOI PARTY CHIEF NGUYEN PHU TRONG AND PRESIDENT TRAN DUC
LUONG, ACCORDING TO A VIETNAMESE-AMERICAN BUSINESSMAN WHO
SPOKE WITH TWO CENTRAL COMMITTEE MEMBERS. THOUGH THE
CENTRAL COMMITTEE SESSION, WHICH ENDED APRIL 10, APPARENTLY
DID NOT FORMALLY CHOOSE PHIEU'S SUCCESSOR, CLEARLY THE
GROUP SEEMED TO HAVE STRONGLY SIGNALED TO PHIEU HIS TIME
WAS UP. OFFICIAL VIETNAMESE MEDIA HAVE REPORTED THAT THE
CENTRAL COMMITTEE FINALIZED A PROPOSED LIST OF CANDIDATES
FOR A NEW CENTRAL COMMITTEE, THOUGH THEY DID NOT COMMENT ON
THE GENERAL SECRETARY POST, NOR NAME ANY OF THESE PERSONS.
SEPARATELY, A SOURCE TOLD US PHIEU WAS NOT INCLUDED ON THE
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PAGE 04 HANOI 00905 01 OF 02 171111Z
NEW CENTRAL COMMITTEE LIST, WHICH IF TRUE WOULD SEAL HIS
FATE.


5. (C) DURING THE PAST WEEK, HANOI HAS BEEN RIFE WITH
RUMORS ABOUT WHETHER MANH WOULD INDEED TAKE THE POST. ONE
OF HIS KEY LIEUTENANTS ON THE ASSEMBLY STAFF SAID MANH
MIGHT NOT WANT TO CHALLENGE FOR THE SPOT AT THIS TIME,
SINCE HE IS BY NATURE NOT COMBATIVE. OTHERS ECHOED THIS:
ONE SOURCE SAID MANH HAD TURNED DOWN THE OFFER, AND ANOTHER
SPECULATED MANH WOULD BIDE HIS TIME, WHICH COULD OPEN THE
WAY FOR ONE OF THE OTHER MENTIONED CANDIDATES, SUCH AS CPV
ORGANIZATIONAL CHIEF NGUYEN VAN AN (WHO WAS A FINALIST TO
PHIEU FOR THE POST IN DECEMBER 1997) OR TRONG.


6. (C) HOWEVER, ON APRIL 17 WE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS
FROM THE APPARENTLY JUST-COMPLETED "PRE-CONGRESS" MEETING
OF THE CPV LEADERSHIP. (BA DINH SQUARE WAS FREE OF
OFFICIAL CARS AND OPEN TO BOTH VEHICULAR AND PEDESTRIAN
TRAFFIC THIS MORNING, FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE PLENUM
BEGAN AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE PRE-CONGRESS. WE THUS
DEDUCE THE PRE-CONGRESS CONCLUDED YESTERDAY.) ONE
DISCERNING SOURCE ON LEADERSHIP ISSUES REPORTS THAT THE NEW
LEADERSHIP LINE-UP HAS BEEN SET AND BLESSED AT THE PRE-
CONGRESS. ACCORDING TO THIS SOURCE, MANH WILL BECOME CPV
GENERAL SECRETARY "EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY"; APPARENTLY PHIEU
"HAS ALREADY MOVED OUT OF HIS OFFICE." LUONG WILL REMAIN
AS PRESIDENT, AND KHAI WILL STAY IN PLACE AS PRIME MINISTER
UNTIL MAY 2001 (WHICH WOULD BE WHEN THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY
WOULD NEXT MEET TO APPROVE CHANGES IN GOVERNMENT
POSITIONS). AT THAT TIME, TRIET WOULD BECOME THE NEW PM
(WITH HIM BECOMING THE NEW FIRST DEPUTY PM IN THE INTERIM).
THIS SOURCE DID NOT KNOW WHAT WOULD HAPPEN TO CURRENT FIRST
DEPUTY PM NGUYEN TAN DUNG, WHO LONG HAS BEEN SEEN AS LIKELY
TO MOVE UP TO THE PRIME MINISTERSHIP. THIS SOURCE ALSO
SAYS FM NIEN WOULD REMAIN IN PLACE, AND VU KHOAN WOULD
ASSUME DEPUTY PM CAM'S PORTFOLIO WITH OVERSIGHT OVER BOTH
FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND TRADE.

COMMENT: POTENTIALLY A MORE REFORM-MINDED LEADERSHIP
-------------- --------------


7. (C) COMMENT: THESE REPORTED CHANGES SEEM PLAUSIBLE AND
WOULD BE CONSISTENT WITH "THE REALM OF THE POSSIBLE" WE
HAVE BEEN MONITORING OVER THE PAST MONTHS. AT THE SAME
TIME, THERE CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE WIDELY VARYING REPORTS.
THOUGH OUR INFORMATION IS ADMITTEDLY INCOMPLETE, THIS
APPEARS TO BE A SOMEWHAT UNIQUE POLITICAL MOMENT IN
VIETNAM, IN THAT THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE APPEARS TO HAVE
RULED CONTRARY TO THE POLITBURO, WITH THE FINAL DECISION
HAVING BEEN FORWARDED TO THE PRE-CONGRESS MEETING ONLY DAYS
BEFORE THE CONGRESS ITSELF.

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 03 HANOI 00905 02 OF 02 171111Z

8. (C) COMMENT (CONT'D): IF CONFIRMED, SUCH A NEW LINEUP
WOULD BE COLLECTIVELY MORE REFORM-MINDED THAN THE CURRENT
VERSION. MANH, A MODERATE IN THE LEADERSHIP WHO HAS
PRESSED FOR THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY TO BECOME MORE
PROFESSIONAL AND TO ASSUME A MORE IMPORTANT ROLE IN
LAWMAKING, WOULD BE A CLEAR IMPROVEMENT OVER THE HIGHLY
IDEOLOGICALLY PHIEU. MANH, WHILE TO ALL APPEARANCES A VERY
COMMITTED COMMUNIST, SEEMS TO BE A QUIET COALITION BUILDER,
AND HE HAS BEEN GRAPPLING WITH MUCH MORE PRACTICAL
QUESTIONS FOR THE COUNTRY'S FUTURE AS ASSEMBLY CHAIR THAN
HAS PHIEU. THAT SAID, MANH'S COMMENTS TO VISITING SENATOR
KERRY DURING THE RECENT POTUS TRIP ARE A REMINDER WE SHOULD
NOT EXPECT MOVEMENT ON POLITICAL REFORM: MANH WAS ADAMANT
IN DEFENDING VIETNAM'S POLITICAL SYSTEM AS FULLY
"DEMOCRATIC," SAYING VIETNAM DOES NOT CONTEMPLATE MULTIPLE
PARTIES IN THE FUTURE.


9. (C) COMMENT (CONT'D): PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANT OVER TIME,
THOUGH, WOULD BE THAT SUCH A NEW LINE-UP, IF CONFIRMED,
WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT ADVANCE IN THE BROADER PROCESS OF
GENERATIONAL CHANGE TO A YOUNGER, MORE TECHNOCRATIC, "POST-
WAR" LEADERSHIP. MANH, 60, IS NEARLY A FULL DECADE YOUNGER
THAN PHIEU. TRIET, 58, GETS HIGH MARKS IN HCMC FOR HIS
WORK AT THE FOREFRONT OF ECONOMIC REFORM. COUPLED WITH
MORE DYNAMIC REFORMERS LIKE VU KHOAN, ONE OF THE KEY
ARCHITECTS OF OUR BILATERAL TRADE AGREEMENT, AND DEPUTY PM
KHIEM, THIS "COLLECTIVE LEADERSHIP" COULD BECOME RE-
ENERGIZED AND MORE WILLING TO EMBRACE A MORE POSITIVE
VISION OF THE OPPORTUNITIES OF GLOBALIZATION -- RATHER THAN
ONLY HARPING ON ITS PERILS. THAT SAID, WE MUST CAUTION
THAT IDEOLOGUES SUCH AS TRONG, HARD-LINE CPV CADRE, AND THE
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PAGE 04 HANOI 00905 02 OF 02 171111Z
POWERFUL MINISTRIES OF DEFENSE AND PUBLIC SECURITY WILL
CONTINUE TO SERVE AS CHECKS ON ANY "JEFFERSONIAN" VISIONS
THAT MIGHT DANCE THROUGH ANY CENTRAL COMMITTEE HEADS. END
COMMENT.
PETERSON

CONFIDENTIAL