DIFFERENT VIEW OF HIGHLAND EVENTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HANOI 000598

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV, DRL, PRM, INR

NSC FOR EAST ASIAN DIRECTORATE
SECDEF FOR ISA/EAP STERN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/14/10
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TAGS: PGOV PHUM KIRF SOCI VM ETMIN HUMANR RELFREE
SUBJECT: DIFFERENT VIEW OF HIGHLAND EVENTS



1. (U) CLASSIFIED BY DENNIS G. HARTER, CHARGE
D'AFFAIRES, REASONS: 1.5 B AND D.


2. (C) SWEDISH DCM TOLD CHARGE SHE BELIEVED THE
REPORTS OF UNREST IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS HAVE BEEN
HIGHLY EXAGGERATED AND BELIEVES FIRST DEMONSTRATIONS
OCCURRED IN LATE JANUARY WELL BEFORE PUBLICITY OF
FEBRUARY EVENTS HIT THE U.S. AND OTHER INTERNATIONAL
REPORTING. SHE CLAIMS THE TWO RELIGIOUS WORKERS WHO
WERE DETAINED IN LATE JANUARY WERE DETAINED BECAUSE OF
DEMONSTRATIONS IN THE AREA BUT ALSO ASSERTS THE
DEMONSTRATIONS HAD LITTLE OR NO RELIGIOUS CONNECTIONS.
THE LOCAL GOVERNMENT APPARENTLY RELEASED THESE
INDIVIDUALS RATHER QUICKLY AFTER DECIDING THEIR
INITIAL ARREST WAS UNWARRANTED. DCM DAHLIN SAID THERE
ARE A NUMBER OF REASONS FOR THE PROBLEMS IN THE
HIGHLANDS AND THE MOST SERIOUS IS THE ISSUE OF LAND
USAGE.


3. (C) ACCORDING TO DCM DAHLIN, HANOI AUTHORITIES
DECIDED IN JANUARY TO OPT FOR THE LARGE-SCALE
DAM/ELECTRICITY PROJECT IN SON LA RATHER THAN THE
SMALLER VERSION WHICH WOULD HAVE REQUIRED LESS
DISLOCATION OF THE LOCAL POPULATION. THIS DECISION
MEANT THAT 150,000 PEOPLE WILL HAVE TO BE RELOCATED
OUT OF THE SON LA REGION AND THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WAS
DESIGNATED TO RECEIVE THESE INDIVIDUALS/FAMILIES. IN
ADDITION TO LOCAL CONCERNS ABOUT THE EXPANSION OF
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PLANTATION AGRICULTURE, RELOCATION OF POOR VIETNAMESE
INTO THE HIGHLANDS AND THEIR CONSEQUENT OCCUPATION OF
TRADITIONAL TRIBAL LANDS, THIS NEW INFLUX OF PEOPLE
APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN A MAJOR CAUSE OF LOCAL CONCERN.


4. (C) DAHLIN EXPLAINED THAT THE LOCAL AUTHORITIES AND
THE LOCAL MILITIA/POLICE FORCES REPRESENT THE LOWEST
LEVEL OF QUALITY IN THE VIETNAMESE BUREAUCRATIC AND
SECURITY HIERARCHY. ANYBODY WHO HAS ANY SKILLS OR ANY
CONNECTIONS GETS OUT OF THIS AREA, IF THEY ARE EVER
EVEN ASSIGNED THERE. THIS HAS MEANT A STEADY RUN OF
UNRESPONSIVE LOCAL OFFICIALS WHO CONTINUE TO LINE
THEIR OWN POCKETS THROUGH EXPLOITATION OF THE DEMAND
FOR ACCESS TO LOCAL LANDS FOR AGRICULTURAL PURPOSES.


5. (C) PUBLIC RESENTMENT ON RELIGIOUS GROUNDS HAS ALSO
OCCURRED FROM TIME TO TIME BECAUSE LOCAL OFFICIALS
HAVE ACTED TO DISRUPT HOUSE CHURCH ACTIVITIES AND TO
TEAR DOWN "ILLEGAL" STRUCTURES. BUT, DAHLIN SAID,
THERE APPEARS TO BE NO REAL EVIDENCE THIS WAS INVOLVED
IN THE RECENT EVENTS OF FEBRUARY. SHE NOTES THERE WAS
NO RPT NO INDICATION OF DEMONSTRATIONS IN THE HIGHLAND
PROVINCE OF LAM DONG, THE ONE PROVINCE IN THE REGION
WHERE THE CENTRAL AUTHORITIES HAVE ALREADY DECIDED
THERE IS NO POSSIBILITY OF PERMITTING ADDITIONAL
RESETTLEMENT BECAUSE OF THE EXTREME POVERTY OF THE
AREA. SHE BELIEVES, AS DO HER SOURCES, THAT THE LAND
ISSUE HAS BEEN AND REMAINS THE NUMBER ONE PROBLEM IN
THE REGION.


6. (C) BASED ON DISCUSSIONS WITH FOREIGNERS AND
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VIETNAMESE FRIENDS WHO WERE IN THE AREA DURING THE
DEMONSTRATIONS, DAHLIN ALSO SAID THE NUMBERS OF
DEMONSTRATORS REPORTED IN PRESS STORIES ARE WIDELY
EXAGGERATED. SHE SAID THE LARGEST DEMONSTRATION WAS
PROBABLY NO MORE THAN A THOUSAND PEOPLE, STILL A
CONSIDERABLE NUMBER FOR SUCH AN EVENT, GATHERED FROM A
NUMBER OF DIFFERENT VILLAGES IN BOTH GIA LAI AND DAK
LAK. BUT THIS NUMBER IS WELL UNDER THE 10 TO 20,000
WHICH SOME SOURCES HAVE CLAIMED WERE ASSEMBLED.
THERE WAS ROCK-THROWING, CLASHES WITH THE POLICE, AND
CERTAINLY FLAGS AND BANNERS ADVOCATING THE FOUNDATION
OF THE "DEGA KINGDOM" AS OUTSIDERS CLAIMED AND THE
VIETNAMESE GOVERNMENT HAS ACKNOWLEDGED.


7. (C) DAHLIN RECOUNTED ATTENDING AN EARLY-FEBRUARY
FUNCTION AT WHICH A NUMBER OF VIETNAMESE MILITARY WERE
PRESENT AND SHE HEARD THEM LAUGHING AND SAW THEM
STANDING UP TO TOAST THE "NEW STATE OF DEGA." ASKED
WHAT WAS GOING ON THEY RECOUNTED THE HIGHLAND
DEMONSTRATIONS AND BANNERS WITH MUCH LAUGHTER AND
CLEARLY HAD NO CONCERNS THAT THIS REPRESENTED ANY KIND
OF "THREAT" TO THE AUTHORITIES OR TO STABILITY IN THE
REGION. DAHLIN SAID THE DISPATCH OF MILITARY PERSONNEL
IN FEBRUARY TO THE AREA REPRESENTED CLEAR INDICATION
THE JANUARY EVENTS HAD NOT BEEN REPORTED IN TIME TO
THE CENTRAL AUTHORITIES. IF IT HAD BEEN REPORTED BY
THE LOCAL GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS, DAHLIN BELIEVED THE
VIETNAMESE WOULD HAVE FIRST SENT SENIOR PARTY AND
GOVERNMENT PERSONNEL TO THE AREA TO TRY TO DEFUSE THE
SITUATION. THAT THEY DID SEND THE MILITARY WAS
PROBABLY STILL AN EFFORT BY THE HANOI LEADERS TO
DEFUSE THIS ISSUE, SINCE THEY TOO RECOGNIZED THE USE
OF LOCAL POLICE OR MILITIA FORCES WOULD ONLY HAVE
INFLAMED CONFRONTATIONS WITH THE LOCAL POPULATION.


8. (C) DAHLIN ACKNOWLEDGED THERE WAS VIOLENCE IN THE
EARLY FEBRUARY DEMONSTRATIONS AND ATTRIBUTES PART OF
THIS TO THE FACT THERE APPEARED TO HAVE BEEN NO
RESPONSE TO POPULAR PROTEST TOWARD THE END OF JANUARY.
ACCORDING TO DAHLIN, WHEN THE FIRST PROTESTS OCCURRED
VINACAFE AND OTHER PLANTATION OWNERS SENT SOME OF
THEIR "SECURITY GUARDS" TO BREAK UP THE
DEMONSTRATIONS. SHE IMPLIED THEY HAD BEEN RESPONSIBLE
FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY VIOLENCE AND IT WAS IN PART IN
PROTEST TO THIS ACTIVITY THAT THE SECOND GATHERINGS
OCCURRED. HIGHLANDER ATTACKS AGAINST THE POLICE ALSO
INDICATED LONG-TERM UNHAPPINESS WITH THE WAY IN WHICH
THE LOCAL AUTHORITIES HAVE ADMINISTERED
GOVERNMENT/SECURITY ISSUES IN THE AREA. AND, SHE SAID,
THE GATHERING OF THE POPULACE AND THEIR FEELING OF
"POWER" IN THEIR NUMBERS PROBABLY ALSO CONTRIBUTED TO
THE CONFRONTATIONS.


9. (C) ASKED ABOUT THE LIKELIHOOD OF EXTERNAL
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AGITATION OR INVOLVEMENT IN THE EVENTS, DAHLIN
RESPONDED SHE HEARD OF NO SUCH CONNECTIONS. SHE
BELIEVES THE INFORMATION ON THE LOCAL COMPLAINTS AND
PLANS FOR COORDINATED DEMONSTRATIONS WAS SPREAD BY
WORD OF MOUTH AND THROUGH THE OMNIPRESENT CELL PHONES
WHICH ARE WIDELY SEEN AROUND THE MAJOR CITIES EVEN IN
THE HIGHLANDS. FOREIGN OBSERVERS IN THE REGION --
FINLAND AND DENMARK HAD AID WORKERS THERE -- WERE
ENCOURAGED BY THEIR COUNTERPARTS TO TAKE HOLIDAYS IN
THE COASTAL AREAS BECAUSE THERE WAS A GENUINE DESIRE
TO ENSURE THEY WERE NOT HURT IN THE MIDST OF ANY
CONFRONTATIONS BETWEEN THE LOCAL POPULATION AND THE
MILITARY. DEMONSTRATING THE INEPTITUDE OF LOCAL
AUTHORITIES, DAHLIN SAID AN INDONESIAN COFFEE
DELEGATION TRAVELING BY VAN IN DAK LAK WAS APPREHENDED
BY MILITIA FORCES AND WAS EXCLUDED FROM FURTHER TRAVEL
IN THE AREA BECAUSE "THEIR TRIBE DID NOT HAVE
SETTLEMENTS IN THAT PART OF DAK LAK."


10. (C) CHARGE ASKED DAHLIN WHO IF ANYONE HAD GONE
BACK IN AND WHETHER SHE -- BECAUSE OF SWEDEN'S SPECIAL
RELATIONSHIP WITH VIETNAM -- MIGHT TRY TO BE AMONG THE
FIRST TO RETURN TO THE AREA TO SEE WHAT IS GOING ON.
DAHLIN, WHO HAD JUST RETURNED FROM SWEDEN ON MONDAY,
SAID SHE INDEED PLANNED TO TALK WITH HER AMBASSADOR
ABOUT DOING THAT, PERHAPS AS EARLY AS NEXT WEEK. HER
INITIAL THOUGHT IS TO PURSUE ACCESS AS PART OF A
POSSIBLE VISIT TO A SWEDISH BUSINESS OPERATION IN THE
AREA BUT SAID SHE MIGHT ALSO TRY TO GO THERE DIRECTLY
FOR A "TOURIST" VISIT. SHE SAID SHE DID NOT BELIEVE
THE VIETNAMESE WILL STONEWALL THE DIPLOMATIC CORPS FOR
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MUCH LONGER NOW THAT THE PRESS TRIP IS UNDERWAY. BUT,
SHE THOUGHT IT WOULD BE HARD FOR THE VIETNAMESE TO
PERMIT A VERY WIDE ACCESS FOR DIPLOMATS TO ANY OF THE
REALLY TROUBLED AREAS.


11. (C) COMMENT: DAHLIN'S LONG-TERM WORK IN VIETNAM
AND HER EXCELLENT SOURCES IN THE COUNTRY MAKES HER
VIEWS A HIGHLY VALUABLE CONTRAST TO THE SELF-
INTERESTED AND INFLAMMATORY COMMENTARIES WHICH HAVE
DOMINATED THE PUBLIC MEDIA. THERE IS STILL MUCH TO BE
LEARNED ABOUT THE UNDERLYING CAUSES AND THE NATURE OF
THE EVENTS WHICH OCCURRED IN JANUARY-FEBRUARY BUT THIS
PERSPECTIVE SHOULD BE CONSIDERED CAREFULLY BEFORE THE
USG COMMITS ITSELF TOO BROADLY TO ACCEPTING THE
ASSERTIONS OF OVERSEAS-BASED, INTEREST GROUPS.
HARTER

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