MANY BATSWANA SOMEWHAT DUBIOUS ABOUT U.S.

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 GABORONE 003355

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PTER BC
SUBJECT: MANY BATSWANA SOMEWHAT DUBIOUS ABOUT U.S.
STRIKES


1. SUMMARY: ENERGETIC OUTREACH EFFORTS BY THE
AMBASSADOR AND MISSION STAFF REVEAL THAT INITIAL
SYMPATHY FOR THE U.S. POST-SEPTEMBER 11 HAS ERODED WITH
RECENT AIRSTRIKES AGAINST THE TALIBAN. BATSWANA
QUESTION U.S. FOREIGN POLICIES; COMPARE THE ASCETIC
IMAGE OF OSAMA BIN LADEN WITH THE ARRAY OF TECHNICAL
WEAPONS BEING AIMED AT HIM; AND TALLY THE CIVILIAN
CASUALTIES OF STRIKES AGAINST THE TALIBAN. THEY ASK
FOR HARD PROOF OF BIN LADEN'S GUILT; THEY FEAR THE
CONSEQUENCES FOR THE WORLD OF A HEAD-ON CONFRONTATION
WITH TERROR. ULTIMATELY HOWEVER, THEY VIEW SEPTEMBER
11 - AND TERRORISM IN GENERAL - AS SOMEONE ELSE'S
PROBLEM, NOT THEIRS. OUR SUCCESSFUL EFFORTS TO WIN GOB
SUPPORT COME IN THE FACE OF SOME LOCAL MEDIA WHICH
PRESS THE GOB TO REMAIN NEUTRAL. OUR DISCUSSIONS WITH
LOCAL EDITORS, MUSLIM OFFICIALS, BUSINESS
ORGANIZATIONS, AND KEY OPINION MAKERS HAVE SLOWED, BUT
NOT STOPPED, THIS TREND. END SUMMARY.

EXPRESSIONS OF DOUBT


2. THE AMBASSADOR'S 10/9 MEETING WITH THREE MEDIA
EDITORS WAS ILLUSTRATIVE OF MANY OF THE CONVERSATIONS
HELD BY MISSION STAFF. THE THREE VOLUNTEERED THAT THE
SEPTEMBER 11 ATTACKS WERE EVIL, AND IN NO WAY
JUSTIFIED. THERE WAS AN IMMEDIATE WAVE OF SYMPATHY AND
RESPECT FOR THE USG WHICH BEGAN TO DIMINISH AS IT
BECAME APPARENT THE USG WOULD RESPOND WITH SIGNIFICANT
FORCE. THE EDITORS WERE NOT CONVINCED UBL WAS GUILTY,
EVEN THOUGH THEY CONCEDED HE LIKELY WAS, AND SUGGESTED
THAT THE USG SHOULD WORK HARDER TO MAKES ITS PUBLIC
CASE. OVERALL THE EDITORS FELT BATSWANA REACTION TO
THE AIRSTRIKES WAS MIXED.


3. THE EDITORS ALSO QUESTIONED THE MEANS THE USG WAS
USING TO TRY AND APPREHEND UBL. MEDIA DEPICTED UBL AS
AN ASCETIC (ONE EDITOR SAID "A SAINT") WHO HAD
RENOUNCED AN OSTENTATIOUS LIFESTYLE TO FIGHT WARS OF
LIBERATION. HE WAS PHOTOGRAPHED IN ROBES IN THE
DESERT, SOMETIMES WITH HIS FAMILY. IT IS DIFFICULT FOR
THE PUBLIC TO IMPUTE TO HIM THE CRIMES HE IS CHARGED
WITH WHEN THEY ARE FACED WITH THESE IMAGES. OPPOSITE
THIS SIMPLE FIGURE STOOD THE ARMED MIGHT OF THE USG,
WITH SMART BOMBS AND HIGH-TECH AIRCRAFT POISED TO
ATTACK. THE AMBASSADOR DESCRIBED THE UBL NETWORK OF
ASSOCIATES, THE COMMITMENT TO TERROR, THE POSSIBLE
STOCK MARKET MANIPULATIONS TO STRESS THAT THIS WAS NOT
A SIMPLE MAN OR ORGANIZATION. THE EDITORS RETURNED
REPEATEDLY, HOWEVER, TO THE IDEA THAT THE USG WAS
TRYING TO APPREHEND AN INDIVIDUAL BY USING
OVERWHELMING, AND POSSIBLY INDISCRIMINATE, FORCE. THEY
HAD LITTLE INTEREST IN THE TALIBAN; THEY DID GIVE A
GREAT DEAL OF WEIGHT TO CIVILIAN DEATHS CAUSED BY USG
ATTACKS AND THE REFUGEE FLOWS OUT OF AFGHANISTAN.
FINALLY, THEY NOTED THAT RESPONSES TO SEPTEMBER 11
COULD GENERATE A NEW ROUND OF TERRORIST ATTACKS BY
GROUPS NOT EVEN ASSOCIATED WITH SEPTEMBER 11 BUT NOW
RESPONDING TO ATTACKS ON THEIR COLLEAGUES.


4. PRESSED TO OFFER BETTER ALTERNATIVES, SOME
SUGGESTED RELYING MORE ON THE UN AND A BROADER
COALITION EFFORT SO THAT IT DID NOT LOOK LIKE A US-ONLY
EFFORT. ANOTHER SUGGESTED PUBLICIZING A STRONGER CASE
AGAINST UBL. ALL CONCURRED THAT THE USG SHOULD
CONSIDER OTHER, MORE DIRECTED, MEANS PROPORTIONATE TO
ITS ENDS - JUSTICE AGAINST THE PERPETRATORS OF
SEPTEMBER 11. THEY ALSO SEVERAL TIMES SUGGESTED THAT
THE U.S. WAS PERCEIVED AS A "BULLY" INTERNATIONALLY,
AND THAT THE WAR ON TERRORISM LOSES GENERAL APPEAL THE
MORE IT IS VIEWED AS PRIMARILY A U.S. EFFORT.

OUTRIGHT DISAGREEMENT WITH THE USG


5. BOTSWANA MEDIA AND LETTERS TO THE EDITOR HAVE BEEN
ON BALANCE MORE NEGATIVE THAN POSITIVE ABOUT THE US.
USING LOCAL AUTHORS AS WELL AS INTERNATIONAL PRESS
SERVICE PIECES, THE PRIVATE PRESS HAS ARGUED THAT THE
U.S.'S UNILATERAL APPROACH TO DIPLOMACY AND ITS MIDDLE
EAST POLICIES CONTRIBUTED TO THE SEPTEMBER 11 ATTACKS.
PRESS HAS ALSO REPORTED CONCERN THAT U.S.-LED ATTACKS
MAY PROMPT RETALIATIONS. ONE PAPER EXTENSIVELY
REPORTED ON A TRAVELLING AMERICAN FAMILY'S BELIEF THAT
RECENT U.S. ACTIONS WERE IN ERROR; THE PIECE RAN
IMMEDIATELY BEFORE THE AMBASSADOR'S OP-ED ON WHY
BOTSWANA SHOULD SUPPORT THE U.S. LETTERS HAVE ALSO
CRITICIZED THE GOB FOR CHOOSING TO SIDE WITH THE U.S.
IN NO CASE, HOWEVER, HAVE MEDIA ADVOCATED ACTIONS
AGAINST THE UNITED STATES, ITS CITIZENS OR
INSTALLATIONS.


6. AMBASSADOR, POL/ECON CHIEF AND OTHERS HAVE
EXTENSIVELY ENGAGED THE ONLY HUMAN RIGHTS NGO IN
GABORONE, DITSHWANELO, ON BOTH THE SEPTEMBER 11 ATTACKS
AND THE OCTOBER 8 STRIKES. ALICE MOGWE, THE
ORGANIZATION'S EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, HAS CONSISTENTLY
ARGUED THAT LAW ENFORCEMENT AND PROSECUTION OF THE
GUILTY WAS THE ONLY LEGITIMATE MEANS OF RESPONSE TO THE
SEPTEMBER 11 ATROCITIES. HER ORGANIZATION'S VIEWS HAVE
ALSO BEEN PUBLISHED IN THE LOCAL MEDIA.

AND SUPPORT FOR OUR APPROACH


7. BUSINESS AND PROFESSIONAL SECTORS HAVE BEEN MORE
SUPPORTIVE. BUSINESS TRAVELLERS RETURNING TO BOTSWANA
RECOUNT NEW RESTRICTIONS AT AIRPORTS, AND CLOSE CALLS
BY FAMILY OR COLLEAGUES, ANECDOTES WHICH BRING THE
REALITY OF SEPTEMBER 11 CLOSER TO HOME. AFTER THE
AMBASSADOR'S 10/12 SPEECH TO THE ROTARY CLUB,
PARTICIPANTS WERE MORE WILLING TO ACCEPT THAT TERRORISM
COULD TAKE PLACE IN BOTSWANA AND THAT THE GLOBAL
COALITION ON TERRORISM MUST SUCCEED. THEY WERE ALSO
CURIOUS TO LEARN WHETHER THE USG WOULD SHIFT SOME OF
ITS MIDDLE EAST POLICIES AS A RESULT OF THE ATTACKS.
AMBASSADOR'S AND PAO'S CONTACTS WITH ACADEMICS ALSO
ENCOUNTER A GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE VIEW.


8. COMMENT: PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR THE U.S. POST-
OCTOBER 8 HAS GENERALLY COME FROM THE GOVERNMENT AND
ELITES; WE SUSPECT THERE IS MORE UNSTATED POPULAR
SUPPORT THAN REGISTERS IN THE PRESS. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO TARGET OUTREACH PROGRAMS AT THAT BROADER BUT LESS-
DEFINED SPECTRUM OF BATSWANA WHO HARBOR CONTINUED
DOUBTS ABOUT UBL GUILT, USG RESPONSE AND QUESTION THE
RELEVANCE OF SEPTEMBER 11 TO BOTSWANA.

LANGE