POPULAR IRANIAN VIEWS OF TEHRAN'S POLICY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DUBAI 1141

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/15/2010
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL KPAL KISL IR TC
SUBJECT: POPULAR IRANIAN VIEWS OF TEHRAN'S POLICY
TOWARD ISRAEL (RESPONSE TO C-NA1-01033)

REF: A) DUBAI 1058 28 AUG 01 B) DUBAI 1197 08 NOV 00
C) DUBAI 1254 10 NOV 00


1. (U) CLASSIFIED BY PRINCIPAL OFFICER RICHARD OLSON FOR
REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D).


2. (C) SUMMARY. IRANIAN VISA APPLICANTS, DUBAI-BASED
TRADERS, AND IRANIANS RESIDENT IN DUBAI PROVIDED THEIR
ASSESSMENT OF IRAN'S POLICY TOWARD ISRAEL AND THE
PALESTINIAN CONFLICT. OF THOSE WHO EXPRESSED OPINIONS--
MANY IRANIANS WHOM CONOFF APPROACHED CLAIMED THAT THEY
EITHER DID NOT HAVE AN OPINION OR DID NOT INVOLVE
THEMSELVES IN POLITICS--IT IS CLEAR THAT THERE IS A
DISCONNECT TO SOME DEGREE BETWEEN THE IRANIAN GOVERNMENT'S
STRIDENT PUBLIC SUPPORT OF THE PALESTINIANS AND
CORRESPONDING VITRIOL TOWARDS ISRAEL AND THE PRIVATE VIEWS
HELD BY THE MAJORITY OF THE POPULATION. WHILE IT APPEARS
THAT MANY IRANIANS SYMPATHIZE WITH THE HUMANITARIAN PLIGHT
OF THE PALESTINIANS, GIVEN IRAN'S DOMESTIC ECONOMIC
DIFFICULTIES THEY QUESTION WHY IRAN IS OUT IN FRONT OF EVEN
THE ARABS, DEVOTING SCARCE FINANCIAL RESOURCES TO FIGHTING
'THE ARABS' FIGHT'. SOME INTERVIEWEES REPORT THAT TEHRAN
IS EXPLOITING THE ISRAEL-PALESTINIAN CONFLICT FOR DOMESTIC
POLITICAL REASONS, WHILE OTHERS EVEN PROFESSED PRO-ISRAEL
SENTIMENT. ALL, HOWEVER, CAUTIONED ABOUT THE DANGER OF
EXPRESSING THESE TYPES OF VIEWS OPENLY, EVEN TO OTHER
IRANIANS. OF THE FEW IRANIANS INTERVIEWED WHO APPEARED TO
BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF TEHRAN'S POLICIES, COUNTERBALANCING
US INFLUENCE IN THE REGION WAS SEEN TO BE A MOTIVATOR FOR
THE REGIME'S ACTIVITIES. END SUMMARY.

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A DIFFICULT ISSUE TO DISCUSS
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3. (C) IN LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER DISCUSSIONS WITH
CONOFF MANY IRANIANS SHIED AWAY FROM OFFERING THEIR
OPINIONS OF IRAN'S POLICY VIS A VIS THE ISRAEL-PALESTINIAN
CONFLICT. CLAIMING EITHER TO BE APOLITICAL OR AFRAID TO
DISCUSS THE ISSUE, EVEN RELATIVELY BENIGN QUESTIONS SUCH AS
"WHAT IS IRAN'S FOREIGN POLICY TOWARD THE CONFLICT" WENT
UNANSWERED. APPARENTLY SPEAKING TO AN AMERICAN OFFICIAL
WAS NOT THE CRUX OF THE PROBLEM; AS ONE 45-YEAR OLD
BUSINESSMAN EXPLAINED "IT IS TOO DANGEROUS TO TALK
ABOUT THE SUBJECT EVEN AMONG IRANIANS." (REF DUBAI 1058
DATED 28 AUGUST 01 FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ABOUT
INCREASING IRANIAN HESITANCE TO ENGAGE IN DISCUSSION ABOUT
A NUMBER OF POLITICAL ISSUES.) IN THWARTING DISCUSSION OF
THE ISSUE MANY PROFESSED TO CONCERN THEMSELVES ONLY WITH
THEIR WORK AND HAD NO INTEREST IN POLITICS. OTHERS WHOM
CONOFF APPROACHED ATTESTED THAT IRANIANS ARE VERY
PREOCCUPIED WITH THE ECONOMY AND MAKING ENDS MEET AND
THEREFORE ARE NOT FOCUSED ON WHAT IS HAPPENING OUTSIDE OF
THE COUNTRY.

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CONCERN FOR BOTH PALESTINIANS AND THE COST OF THAT SUPPORT
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4. (C) OF THE IRANIANS WHO ENGAGED IN DISCUSSION ABOUT THE
ISSUE, IT APPEARS THAT THAT A LARGE SEGMENT OF THE
POPULATION WOULD CLASSIFY THEMSELVES AS PRO-PALESTINIAN AND
THEY ARE CONCERNED--ON A HUMANITARIAN LEVEL--ABOUT THE
PALESTINIANS' PLIGHT. ONE IRANIAN DUBAI-BASED BUSINESSMAN
ESTIMATED THAT 80% TO 90% OF IRANIANS ARE SYMPATHETIC
TOWARDS THE PALESTINIANS' CONDITION, AND AN IRANIAN STUDENT
SPOKE FAVORABLY ABOUT THE UP-TICK IN VISIBLE IRANIAN
HUMANITARIAN SUPPORT FOR THE PALESTINIANS THIS PAST YEAR.
ACCORDING TO HIM THE GOVERNMENT HAS ISSUED PUBLIC APPEALS
FOR IRANIANS TO DONATE MONEY TO PALESTINIANS AND HAS
BROUGHT INJURED PALESTINIANS TO IRAN FOR TREATMENT.


5. (C) DESPITE THESE SYMPATHIES, HOWEVER, THE IRANIAN
DUBAI-BASED BUSINESSMAN REPORTED THAT IT APPEARS TO MANY
IRANIANS THAT IRAN IS AT THE FOREFRONT OF FIGHTING WHAT IS
AN ESSENTIALLY AN ARAB FIGHT. IT IS BELIEVED THAT IRAN IS
THE MOST SUPPORTIVE AMONG THE REGION'S COUNTRIES OF GIVING
FINANCIAL AND POLITICAL SUPPORT TO THE PALESTINIANS AND
THEY WONDER WHY ARABS ARE NOT SHOWING A SIMILAR LEVEL OF
COMRADERIE. MOREOVER, IRANIANS ARE CONCERNED THAT THEIR
COUNTRY CANNOT AND SHOULD NOT AFFORD TO GIVE SUCH FINANCIAL

SUPPORT AND THAT GIVEN THE DIFFICULT ECONOMIC CONDITIONS
FACED AT HOME BY THE MAJORITY OF THE POPULATION "EVERY
PENNY COUNTS."


6. (C) THE MAJORITY OF IRANIANS INTERVIEWED BELIEVE THAT
IRAN'S SUPPORT OF THE PALESTINIANS IS LIMITED TO POLITICAL
AND HUMANITARIAN FINANCIAL SUPPORT. INTERVIEWEES COULD NOT
QUANTIFY THE LEVEL OF FINANCIAL SUPPORT, HOWEVER ONE
BUSINESSMAN SURMISED THAT THE CURRENT LEVEL "IS LESS THAN
IN THE PAST." THE IRANIAN DUBAI-BASED BUSINESSMAN DID NOT
BELIEVE THAT IRAN GAVE THE PALESTINIANS MILITARY SUPPORT.
HE ASKED RHETORICALLY "WHAT COULD THEY [IRAN] REALLY GIVE
THAT COULD COUNTERACT ISRAEL? THE ISRAELI MILITARY COULD
FLATTEN PALESTINE, SYRIA AND LEBANON WITHIN TWO TO THREE
DAYS."

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PUBLIC DOES NOT SHARE REGIME'S VITRIOL IN PRIVATE
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7. (C) BESIDES THE ECONOMIC COST OF SUPPORTING THE
PALESTINIANS, SEVERAL IRANIANS REPORTED THAT PEOPLE DO NOT
SHARE THE LEVEL OF VITRIOL THE REGIME ESPOUSES VIS A VIS
ISRAEL. THE IRANIAN DUBAI-BASED BUSINESSMAN REPORTED THAT
PEOPLE ARE TIRED OF THE HARSH RHETORIC BUT THAT THEY
BELIEVE THAT "AS LONG AS THE MULLAHS ARE IN GOVERNMENT"
IRAN WILL WANT TO "ANNIHILATE" ISRAEL AND WILL HOLD THAT
GOAL AS A TENET OF THE REGIME. INTERVIEWEES DID NOT SEEM
TO SEE DIVISIONS WITHIN THE IRANIAN GOVERNMENT ON THIS
ISSUE. AS A 70-YR OLD RETIREE CAUTIONED, "YOU MUST NOT
LUMP IRANIAN PEOPLE IN WITH THE REGIME." (SIMILAR POPULAR
IDEOLOGICAL FATIGUE HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE PAST. REF
DUBAI 1197 DATED 08 NOV 00.)


8. (C) THE BELIEF ALSO EXISTS THAT IRAN'S SUPPORT OF THE
PALESTINIAN CAUSE HAS A DISINGENUOUS ANGLE TO IT.
ACCORDING TO A UNIVERSITY PROFESSOR THE IRANIAN REGIME
HYPES THE ISRAEL-PALESTINIAN CONFLICT TO SUIT ITS OWN
PURPOSES DOMESTICALLY. THE REGIME TRIED TO BLAME THE
SERIAL MURDERS OF INTELLECTUALS ON "ISRAELI INTERVENTION"
AND IS CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTING THE SUFFERING OF THE
PALESTINIANS TO TRY TO MAKE THE IRANIAN POPULACE FEEL
FRIVOLOUS AND GREEDY FOR WANTING REFORMS AND "HAVING FUN"
WHILE THEIR PALESTINIAN "BRETHEREN" ARE IN THEIR DARKEST
HOUR.


9. (C) EXPRESSING VIEWPOINTS ABOUT THE ISRAEL-PALESTINIAN
ISSUE THAT DEPART FROM THE OFFICIAL LINE IS SEEN TO BE A
DANGEROUS UNDERTAKING. THE PROFESSOR EXPLAINED THAT PEOPLE
ARE AFRAID TO SPEAK OUT AGAINST THE GOVERNMENT, AND DO NOT
PUBLICLY VOICE THEIR OPPOSITION TO GOVERNMENT SUPPORT OF
THE PALESTINIANS. HE ADDED THAT THE CURRENT PUBLIC
RETICENCE TO EXPRESS OPINIONS ABOUT A RANGE OF
CONTROVERSIAL ISSUES IS WIDESPREAD, AND THAT SINCE THE
BERLIN CONFERENCE MANY INTELLECTUALS--LIKE PHILOSOPHER
ABDOLKARIM SORUSH--HAVE STOPPED SPEAKING OUT AND ARE
CHOOSING TO LIVE LOWER PROFILE LIVES.

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SOME SEGMENTS EVEN SYMPATHETIC TOWARDS ISRAEL
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10. (C) SEVERAL INTERVIEWEES REPORTED THAT A LATENT PRO-
ISRAEL BIAS EXISTS. A DUBAI TRADER WHO RECENTLY RETURNED
FROM IRAN TOLD CONOFF THAT SEVERAL IRANIANS THAT HE SPOKE
WITH EXPRESS PRO-ISRAEL SENTIMENTS BENEATH THE SURFACE. HE
ATTRIBUTED THIS TO THE FACT THAT ALTHOUGH IRANIANS WERE
CONVERTED TO ISLAM, MANY STILL PERCEIVE A BOND OF KINSHIP
BETWEEN THEIR ORIGINAL RELIGION OF ZOROASTRIANISM AND
JUDAISM. A SECOND BUSINESSMAN REPORTED THAT SENTIMENT
EXISTS WITHIN THE IRANIAN BUSINESS COMMUNITY THAT IF THE
REGIME WOULD ONLY TONE DOWN ITS RHETORIC IRAN COULD HAVE
GOOD BUSINESS RELATIONS WITH ISRAEL.


11. (C) PAST INTERVIEWS WITH IRANIANS HAVE ALSO HIGHLIGHTED
SOME PRO-ISRAEL SENTIMENT. A MEMBER OF THE IRANIAN JEWISH
COMMUNITY LAST NOVEMBER REPORTED THAT IRAN'S JEWISH
POPULATION FEELS A STRONG--BUT WELL-HIDDEN--AFFINITY FOR
THE STATE OF ISRAEL. (REF DUBAI 1254 DATED 10 NOV 00)

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MINORITY OPINION: IRAN INVOLVED TO COUNTER US
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12. (C) OF THE SMALL NUMBER OF IRANIANS INTERVIEWED WHO
BELIEVED THAT IRANIAN INVOLVEMENT ON BEHALF OF THE
PALESTINIANS WAS WARRANTED, COUNTERING PERCEIVED PRO-ISRAEL
US INFLUENCE WAS CITED AS THE PRINCIPAL MOTIVATOR.
ACCORDING TO THE OWNER OF AN IRANIAN TRANSPORTATION COMPANY
THE US HAS STOKED THE MIDDLE EAST CRISIS AS A WAY TO PUSH
IRAN TO INTERVENE IN THE REGION. HEAVY US SUPPORT OF
ISRAEL HAS INSURED THAT IRAN WOULD SUPPORT THE
PALESTINIANS, AND PROVIDED A CONVENIENT PRETEXT FOR US
CONTINUANCE OF ILSA. HE LABELED ILSA PROPONENTS AS PRO-
ISRAEL AND STATED THAT THOSE PROPONENTS HAD WANTED GORE
INSTEAD TO WIN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.


13. (C) A DUBAI-BASED IRANIAN ENTREPRENEUR PROVIDED HIS
OPINION OF WESTERN ASSERTIONS THAT THE IRANIAN GOVERNMENT
IS A STATE SPONSOR OF INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM. HE IS
PRAGMATIC, BELIEVING THAT NEARLY EVERY GOVERNMENT SPONSORS
TERRORISM, AND MAINTAINED THAT THE IRANIAN GOVERNMENT IS
NOT DOING "ANYTHING DIFFERENT THAN ISRAEL, THE US OR UK."
ACCORDING TO HIM THE US SELECTIVELY SINGLES OUT IRAN AND HE
USED THE UAE-IRAN DISPUTE OVER ABU MUSA AND THE TUNBS
ISLANDS AS AN EXAMPLE, SAYING THAT THE ONLY TIME THE GCC
MAKES BELLIGERENT STATEMENTS AGAINST IRAN IS WHEN THE US IS
PRESSURING THEM TO PUNISH TEHRAN. HE CONTINUED THAT THE
ORGANS IN IRAN THAT CARRY OUT INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM--SUCH
AS THE INTELLIGENCE SERVICES--ARE NECESSARY IN ORDER FOR
THE GOVERNMENT TO RETAIN POWER.


OLSON