COLOMBO CALM AFTER THREE MONTHS OF LTTE CEASEFIRE

UNCLAS COLOMBO 000579

LONDON FOR SUTPHIN
CINCPAC FOR FPA AMB TWINING


E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL CE
SUBJECT: COLOMBO CALM AFTER THREE MONTHS OF LTTE CEASEFIRE

REF: (A) COLOMBO 0234, (B) COLOMBO 0201, (C) COLOMBO 0188,
(D) COLOMBO 0182, (E) COLOMBO 0156, (F) COLOMBO 0108, (G) 00
COLOMBO 2773, (H) 00 COLOMBO 2760


1. (U) SUMMARY: RELATIVE CALM PREVAILS IN COLOMBO MORE
THAN THREE MONTHS AFTER AN ANNOUNCEMENT IN DECEMBER 2000 BY
THE LIBERATION TIGERS OF TAMIL EELAM (LTTE) OF A UNILATERAL
CEASE-FIRE (SEE REFTELS A-C, F-H). AFTER A SERIES OF
OFFENSIVES TO RECLAIM PART OF THE JAFFNA PENINSULA, SRI
LANKAN ARMED FORCES HAVE REFRAINED FROM MAJOR MILITARY
OPERATIONS IN AREAS HELD BY THE LTTE, ALTHOUGH AERIAL
BOMBARDMENT OF SUSPECTED LTTE BASES CONTINUES. DESPITE THE
CALM, THE SINHALESE PUBLIC BOTH IN COLOMBO AND RURAL AREAS
OF THE SOUTH REMAINS SKEPTICAL ABOUT PROSPECTS FOR PEACE.
ENGLISH-MEDIUM MEDIA HAVE WITHHELD JUDGEMENT ABOUT POSSIBLE
PEACE TALKS, ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE VERNACULAR SINHALESE PRESS
INSISTS FAILURE OF PEACE TALKS WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO
RESUMPTION OF HOSTILITIES. END SUMMARY.


2. COLOMBO-BASED PRESS ANALYSTS WHO HAVE COVERED THE
CONFLICT FOR THE LAST TWO DECADES SAY THE RECENT CALM IN THE
CAPITAL REMINDS THEM OF 1987, WHEN THE LTTE AGREED TO LAY
DOWN ARMS IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE INDO-LANKA ACCORD. THEY
STRESS BREAKDOWNS IN THE PEACE PROCESS, IN 1987 AND
SUBSEQUENTLY, HAVE IMMUNIZED THE PUBLIC FROM HOPING TOO MUCH
FOR PEACE AND SAY PEOPLE HAVE VERY LOW EXPECTATIONS THE
CURRENT LULL WILL CONTINUE.


3. LOCAL POLITICAL ORGANIZERS AND ACADEMICS IN THE
PREDOMINANTLY SINHALA-SPEAKING PROVINCES OF UVA,
SABARAGAMUWA AND THE SOUTHERN PROVINCE TOLD EMBOFF DURING A
TRIP IN EARLY APRIL THAT FEW PEOPLE IN THESE RURAL DISTRICTS
HAD GIVEN MUCH THOUGHT TO THE THREE MONTHS OF RELATIVE CALM
IN COLOMBO. THEY SAID THE PUBLIC CONTINUES TO EXPRESS GREAT
SKEPTICISM ABOUT THE LTTE'S MOTIVES IN ANNOUNCING ITS CEASE-
FIRE.


4. GOVERNMENT ENGLISH-LANGUAGE MEDIA HAS NEITHER EXTOLLED
NOR DECRIED THE RECENT CALM, BUT SOME SECTIONS OF THE
SINHALA-LANGUAGE PRESS CONTINUE TO WARN OF IMPENDING ATTACKS
BY THE LTTE. OPPOSITION UNITED NATIONAL PARTY (UNP) SOURCES
ACCUSE THE GSL OF USING THE THREAT OF RENEWED LTTE ATTACKS
TO JUSTIFY CONTINUED HEAVY DEFENSE EXPENDITURE AND SAY THE
GSL CONTINUES TO USE THE ONGOING WAR ISSUE TO DISTRACT
ATTENTION FROM THE ECONOMY'S WEAKNESS AND RISING COST OF
LIVING (SEE REFTELS D-E).


5. A MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SOURCE ATTACHED TO SRI LANKA'S
LARGEST MILITARY TRAINING ACADEMY, AT DIYATALAWA, TOLD
EMBOFF THAT ALTHOUGH THE MILITARY HAD NOT LET ITS GUARD DOWN
IN RESPONSE TO THE LTTE'S CEASE-FIRE ANNOUNCEMENT, MANY
MILITARY OFFICERS NONETHELESS EXPRESS CONFIDENCE ABOUT THE
NORWAY-LED PEACE PROCESS. DESPITE ALL THE RHETORIC OF WAR,
HE SAID, "SOLDIERS YEARN FOR PEACE MORE THAN ANYONE ELSE."


6. COMMENT: BUDDHIST AND HINDU NEW YEAR CELEBRATIONS
TYPICALLY MAKE MID-APRIL A QUIET TIME; THE LTTE'S CEASE-FIRE
AND MANEUVERS AROUND THE POSSIBILITY OF PEACE TALKS HAVE
MADE THIS ONE OF THE QUIETEST APRILS IN YEARS. ALTHOUGH
DEEP MISTRUST OF LTTE INTENTIONS CONTINUES IN MUCH OF THE
SINHALESE PUBLIC, PEOPLE IN COLOMBO UNDOUBTEDLY HAVE ENJOYED
THE LAST THREE BOMB-FREE MONTHS. MOST PEOPLE NOW BELIEVE
SOME SORT OF TALKS BETWEEN THE GOVERNMENT AND LTTE WILL
OCCUR, BUT EXPECTATIONS ABOUT POTENTIAL OUTCOMES OF TALKS
REMAIN LOW. NOBODY WILL BE SURPRISED IF -- SOME WOULD SAY
"WHEN" -- THE EXPLOSIONS BEGIN AGAIN.


WILLS