Identifier | Created | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|
01BEIRUT758 | 2001-03-22 16:28:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Beirut |
P 221628Z MAR 01 FM AMEMBASSY BEIRUT TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5869 INFO ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE |
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000758 |
1. (C) SUMMARY: PARLIAMENTARY SPEAKER/AMAL MOVEMENT HEAD NABIH BERRI, CORNERED BY SYRIAN SUPPORT FOR HARIRI'S STRUCTURAL REFORMS WHICH WILL HARM HIS PATRONAGE MACHINE, IS TRIMMING SAILS. HE HAS MET WITH ARCH-RIVAL HIZBALLAH SYG NASRALLAH AND COMPROMISES ON TWO BONES OF CONTENTION ARE EMERGING. FIRST, THEY HAVE CUT A DEAL IN WHICH A PRO-AMAL FIGURE BECOMES THE HEAD OF THE HIGHER ISLAMIC SHI'A COUNCIL (SPIRITUAL LEADER OF THE COMMUNITY AND CONTROLLER OF CLERICAL APPOINTMENTS AND FUNDS) WHILE A PRO-HIZBALLAHI GAINS THE DEPUTY SLOT. SECOND, THEY HAVE WORKED OUT DIFFERENCES BLOCKING MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS IN THE FORMER ISRAELI SECURITY ZONE, AND WILL FORGE A MADE-IN-SYRIA ALLIANCE WHICH WILL BLOCK OUT ANY THIRD FORCES, SUCH AS FORMER SPEAKER KAMAL AL-ASAD. THESE COMPROMISES IN PART REFLECT BERRI'S SENSE OF POLITICAL VULNERABILITY, BUT ALSO A SIGN THAT HIZBALLAH IS COMING BACK DOWN TO EARTH AFTER THE HEADY POST-LIBERATION DAYS. NASRALLAH'S ASSOCIATION WITH THE PALESTINIAN INTIFADA -- WHILE IT HAS PUT HIM ON THE MAP REGIONALLY -- HAS GAINED THE PARTY LITTLE IN THE DEEPLY ANTI-PALESTINIAN SHI'A COMMUNITY. THE RESULT IS A TEMPORARY, TACTICAL ALLIANCE WHICH WILL NOT CHANGE THE LANDSCAPE IN THE SOUTH, BUT MAY REDUCE INTERNAL SHI'A TENSIONS FOR THE MOMENT. END SUMMARY. 2. (C) PARLIAMENTARY SPEAKER/AMAL MOVEMENT HEAD NABIH BERRI HAS BEEN ON THE POLITICAL DEFENSIVE. MOST RECENTLY, HE HAS BEEN COMPELLED TO ACCEPT POTENTIALLY SWEEPING STRUCTURAL REFORMS ADVOCATED BY PM HARIRI WHICH WILL UNDERCUT A MAJOR SOURCE OF HIS POWER, PATRONAGE. THE GOVERNMENT JOBS OF THOUSANDS OF HIS FOLLOWERS ARE ON THE CHOPPING BLOCK -- ALBEIT INCUMBENTS WILL GET GOLDEN HANDSHAKES -- AS THE PRICE HARIRI HAS SAID MUST BE PAID TO RESTORE CONFIDENCE IN LEBANON'S ECONOMY AND FINANCES. BERRI'S CLIMBDOWN IS GENERALLY ATTRIBUTED TO PRESSURE FROM DAMASCUS, WHOSE LOCAL OPERATIVES HAVE BEEN VISIBLE SUPPORTERS OF HARIRI'S REFORM AGENDA. 3. (C) AN UNUSUAL MEETING BETWEEN BERRI AND HIZBALLAH SECGEN NASRALLAH MAY REFLECT BERRI'S RESPONSE TO HIS REDUCED CIRCUMSTANCES. IT IS SAID THAT TWO COMPROMISES EMERGED ON ISSUES DIVIDING AMAL AND HIZBALLAH AND THE SHI'A COMMUNITY: THE SUCCESSION TO IMAM MUHAMMAD MAHDI SHAMS AD-DIN, WHO DIED IN JANUARY, AND ORGANIZATION OF MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS IN THE FORMER ISRAELI SECURITY ZONE. 4. (C) SHAMS AD-DIN'S POSITION AS SHI'A SPIRITUAL LEADER AND HEAD OF THE HIGHER ISLAMIC SHI'A COUNCIL (HISC) HAS BEEN FILLED BY HIS DEPUTY, AS ACTING CHAIRMAN, ABDEL AMIR QABALAN. QABALAN IS A PRO-AMAL CLERIC WITH LITTLE NATIONAL FOLLOWING OR RESPECT (REFTEL). ACCORDING TO A TOP HISC ADVISOR, BERRI AND NASRALLAH AGREED THAT QABALAN SHOULD BE ELECTED CHAIRMAN, AND A NEW, PRO-HIZBALLAH DEPUTY APPOINTED TO FILL QABALAN'S POSITION -- AND BE POSITIONED TO BECOME CHAIRMAN WHENEVER QABALAN PASSES FROM THE SCENE. HIZBALLAH'S CANDIDATE IS SHEIKH MOHAMED YAZBEK, THE LOCAL "PERSONAL" REPRESENTATIVE OF AYATOLLAH KHAMENEI (ALTHOUGH IRANIAN FM KHARRAZI WAS SAID DURING HIS VISIT LAST WEEK TO HAVE SAID TEHRAN FAVORED ANY CANDIDATE WHO GAINED CONSENSUS SUPPORT FROM AMAL AND HIZBALLAH. AMAL IS STILL PUBLICLY SUPPORTING A RIVAL CANDIDATE, BAALBAK MUFTI KHALIL SHUQAIR, BUT A KEY CONTACT SAID THE DEAL HAS BEEN CUT FAVORING YAZBEK. THESE APPOINTMENTS MATTER BECAUSE OF HISC'S CONTROL OVER ALL SHI'A CLERICAL APPOINTMENTS AS WELL THE RELIGIOUS ENDOWMENTS, ISLAMIC UNIVERSITY, AND AZ-ZAHRA HOSPITAL. IN THE PAST, HIZBALLAH OFFICIALS WERE DISMISSIVE THE OF THE COUNCIL, AND RELIED ON THEIR OWN ASSETS TO PROMOTE SUPPORT. HOWEVER, LOOKING TO THE DAY OF REDUCED IRANIAN SUPPORT, HIZBALLAH FIGURES MAY NOW FIND ACCESS TO HISC PATRONAGE AND MONEY MORE ATTRACTIVE. 5. (C) THE SECOND COMPROMISE INVOLVED AGREEMENT ON PROCEEDING WITH MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS IN THE FORMER SECURITY ZONE, WHICH WILL BE THE FIRST SINCE 1963. THEIR CONSENSUS, BASED ON A MADE-IN-SYRIA ELECTORAL ALLIANCE BETWEEN THE TWO PARTIES, CLEARS THE WAY FOR SEPTEMBER POLLS. THE TWO PARTIES' DIVISION OF THE SPOILS WITH AGREED LISTS OF PRE-CHOSEN CANDIDATES WILL ENSURE A MINIMUM OF SURPRISES, AS WELL AS MINIMAL LOCAL CONFLICT BETWEEN ARMED SUPPORTERS. KEY WILL BE TO SHUT OUT THIRD FORCE COMPETITORS, SUCH AS FORMER SPEAKER KAMAL AL-ASAD, WHO IS ANATHEMA IN DAMASCUS BUT RETAINS A CONSIDERABLE CORE OF SUPPORT IN THE FORMER ZONE. 6. (C) KHIAM MP/AMAL MEMBER ALI HASSAN KHALIL CHARACTERIZED TO US THE UPCOMING MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS AS CRUCIAL FOR THE POLITICAL FUTURE OF THE REGION AFTER ALMOST A QUARTER-CENTURY OF ARTIFICIAL, EXTERNALLY-IMPOSED POLITICS. THE MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS WOULD PREVIEW ANY NEW POLITICAL BLOOD THAT MAY COME TO THE FOREFRONT. HOPING TO NIP THAT INDEPENDENT STRAIN IN THE BUD, DAMASCUS HAS ENCOURAGED BOTH SHIA PARTIES TO "COORDINATE" THEIR ELECTION STRATEGIES AND CANDIDATE LISTS. TO DATE, KHALIL HAS HELD SOME SIX MEETINGS WITH HIZBALLAH POLITICAL ADVISOR, HUSSEIN KHALIL. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CONSENSUS ON ANY ISSUE, DAMASCUS WILL ENSURE THAT A UNIFIED POSITION WILL ARISE COME ELECTION DAY. 7. (C) DESPITE THE FIERCE RIVALRY BETWEEN THE TWO PARTIES, BOTH AMAL NOR HIZBALLAH GAIN IN THIS COALITION. AMAL IS A HOLLOWED OUT PARTY, STRIPPED OF ITS CIVIL WAR ERA LEGITIMACY BY POST-WAR CORRUPTION. WHILE ITS LONG POLITICAL EXPERIENCE AND SECULAR APPROACH REMAIN ATTRACTIVE DRAWS TO THE SHIA COMMUNITY, PATRONAGE HAS BEEN KEY TO BERRI'S SUCCESS - - AND HARIRI'S REFORMS ARE AT LEAST TEMPORARILY DILUTING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF THAT WEAPON FOR HIM. HIZBALLAH, ON THE DOWNSWING FROM THE HEADY DAYS OF THE ISRAELI WITHDRAWAL, IS SAID TO HAVE ENCOUNTERED SOME CRITICISM FROM SOUTHERNERS, WHO DISAGREE WITH THE PARTY'S ADVOCACY OF THE PALESTINIAN INTIFADA, UNWILLING TO GET DRAWN BACK INTO VIOLENCE WITH ISRAEL ON BEHALF OF UNPOPULAR PALESTINIANS. VOICES ARE ALSO HEARD SAYING THAT HIZBALLAH HAS FAILED TO FILL THE SERVICE VACUUM LEFT BY THE STATE, AND HAVE SHOWN TO BE NO BETTER THAN OTHER LEBANESE POLITICAL FORCES WHICH FAIL TO DELIVER. HALE |