Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
01ABUJA3280
2001-12-28 17:54:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Abuja
Cable title:  

NIGERIA: NATIONAL ASSEMBLY TO REVIEW ELECTORAL ACT

Tags:  PREL PGOV PHUM KDEM NI 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 003280 

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/28/2011
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KDEM NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: NATIONAL ASSEMBLY TO REVIEW ELECTORAL ACT

REF: ABUJA 3228


(U) Classified by CDA Andrews; Reasons 1.5 (b/d).


C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 003280

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/28/2011
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KDEM NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: NATIONAL ASSEMBLY TO REVIEW ELECTORAL ACT

REF: ABUJA 3228


(U) Classified by CDA Andrews; Reasons 1.5 (b/d).



1. (U) The Nigerian House of Representatives may cut short
its holiday recess (through January 22) to the first week of
January to review the electoral act signed by President
Obasanjo on December 6. Speaker of the House Ghali Umar
Na'Abba said that a committee created at his discretion had
already met and drafted an amended version of the law. The
Senate may also review the law during a session primarily
addressing security in the wake of the Ige assassination. A
principal point in the controversy is the allegation that the
legislation Obasanjo signed is not identical to the bill
passed by the National Assembly.



2. (C) Since Obasanjo signed the controversial act, it has
been at the center stage of Nigerian politics (reftel),
overtaken in the media only by the assassination of Attorney
General Chief Bola Ige. The governors, in addition to human
and civil rights advocates and members of new political
associations, complain that the act was designed to protect
Federal-level incumbents against challengers and the existing
parties (or at least the PDP and APP, since the AD is falling
apart) against new political groupings.



3. (U) One of the most controversial sections of the law
(Clause 80.1) dictates that only parties gaining 10 percent
of the seats in local government elections spread among at
least two-thirds of Nigeria's states are allowed to contest
in national elections. Because the act also dictates that
local government elections will occur after state and
national contests, the act precludes new political parties
from contesting for state and national seats in 2003.
(Moreover, since the governors will be replaced before local
government officials, it removes a great deal of
gubernatorial influence in 2003.). It will be extremely
difficult for new political groups to build strength among
the electorate and to raise funds if they have no hope of
influence beyond the LGA level in 2003.



4. (C) It now appears that this controversial clause may not
have been in the final version of the bill passed by the
National Assembly to the President. Speaker Na'Abba,
describing the chain of events in "ThisDay" on December 27,
stated that the President sought amendments from the Assembly
after he received the bill, but that this request had been
rejected. According to Na'Abba, the controversial clause
80.1 was not in the bill that the Assembly sent to the
President for his signature. His implication is that
President Obasanjo or his advisers engaged in some sort of
line-item amendment. Several Senators have suggested the
same thing.



5. (C) Beyond the doubtful constitutionality of a line-item
amendment, the allegation of impropriety on the part of Aso
Rock does nothing to build confidence in the political
system. Already, prominent voices are questioning whether
the President broke the law. Secretary of the Board of
Trustees of the United Nigeria Development Party Bashir A.
Albasu, described the action of the President as an
impeachable offense, and said the system was moving in such a
way as to allow Obasanjo to become a "civilian dictator."



6. (SBU) Of course, voices from new political organizations
are the most vehement. However, dissenting voices are being
raised even within Obasanjo's own party. Representative
Farouq Lawan (PDP-Kano),Chairman of the House
Inter-Parliamentary Relations Committee noted that the clause
on new party exclusion was never discussed on the House
floor, and said, "This is not dictatorship. This is
democracy and you cannot impose an unpopular law on the
people." Senator Samaila Mamman (PDP-Kano),called
Obasanjo's action "immoral," and publicly threatened to
resign his seat if the upper house refuses to review the law
when it resumes business in January.



7. (SBU) More disturbing are growing references to Nigeria's
troubled past. National Chairman of the People's Redemption
Party (PRP),Alhaji Abdulkadir Balarabe Musa, was quoted as
saying that, "This was what happened in the 1983 elections,
when the then-ruling National Party of Nigeria used its
incumbency to win the whole elections, this action prompted
the military to take over power from the NPN after only three
months of stolen tenure."



8. (C) The electoral law was the subject of much public
debate on its merits, even before questions about the
propriety of its enactment were raised. If a political
solution cannot be found quickly, the courts may find
themselves faced not only with a question of whether the law
(as signed by Obasanjo) is compatible with the 1999
Constitution but also asked to determine whether the law
before them was duly enacted.
Andrews