NIGERIA: OBASANJO BELIEVES NIGERIA WILL REMAIN

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 002568

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/10/2011
TAGS: PGOV PTER PREL NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: OBASANJO BELIEVES NIGERIA WILL REMAIN
CALM OVER AFGHANISTAN


CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR HOWARD F. JETER, REASON 1.5 (B) AND
(D).



1. (S) SUMMARY: DURING AN OCTOBER 9 MEETING, PRESIDENT
OBASANJO, JOINED BY SPECIAL ADVISOR ADOBE OBE, EXPRESSED
CONFIDENCE THAT NIGERIA WOULD NOT EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT
DEMONSTRATIONS AS A RESULT OF COALITION STRIKES IN
AFGHANISTAN. HOWEVER, HE ADMITTED THAT NIGERIA HAD ISLAMIC
RADICALS WHO BEAR WATCHING. IN THIS VEIN, OBASANJO STATED
THAT HE WOULD HAVE TO REIN IN ZAMFARA STATE GOVERNOR SANI WHO
CONTINUED TO BREW A VOLATILE MIX OF RELIGION AND POLITICS IN
HIS ECONOMICALLY BACKWARD STATE.
COMMENDING NIGERIAN SUPPORT FOR OUR MILITARY ACTION,
AMBASSADOR JETER ADVISED OBASANJO THAT NIGERIA NEEDED TO
TIGHTEN ITS MONEY LAUNDERING LAWS AS PART OF THE
INTERNATIONAL EFFORT TO FINANCIALLY SUFFOCATE THIS
TRANSNATIONAL THREAT. WHILE ASKING FOR U.S. ASSISTANCE ON
MONEY LAUNDERING, OBASANJO ALSO HINTED THAT NIGERIA COULD
MODESTLY INCREASE OIL PRODUCTION, SHOULD PERSIAN GULF
PRODUCERS EXPERIENCE DISRUPTIONS. END SUMMARY.



2. (C) INITIALLY FIDGETING AND COMPLAINING OF A COLD,
PRESIDENT OBASANJO QUICKLY WARMED AS THE MEETING PROGRESSED.
AGAINST THE BACKGROUND OF HIS OFFICE TELEVISION BROADCASTING
NEWS OF COALITION OPERATIONS IN AFGHANISTAN, OBASANJO
PREDICTED THAT NIGERIA WOULD REMAIN CALM IN RESPONSE TO THE
MILITARY OPERATIONS. LIKE EVERYWHERE ELSE, THE COUNTRY HAD
ITS FRINGE ELEMENTS WHO WOULD TRY TO STOKE THE GENERAL
POPULATION; HOWEVER, THIS TINY BUT BOISTEROUS MINORITY WOULD
NOT BE ABLE TO STIR THE PEOPLE WITH THEIR SOUR RHETORIC, HE
FORECASTED. YET, HE ASSURED THE AMBASSADOR, NIGERIAN
SECURITY AGENCIES WERE CLOSELY WATCHING THESE FIREBRANDS,
LEST THEY RUN AMOK.



3. (S) GIVING THE SUBJECT A BIT MORE THOUGHT AND NUANCE,
OBASANJO CAVEATED THAT THE LONGER COALITION OPERATIONS
LASTED, PARTICULARLY IF COUPLED WITH REPORTS OF CIVILIAN
CASUALTIES OR AN EXPANDED THEATER OF OPERATION, THEN NIGERIA
MIGHT EXPERIENCE SOME ANTI-AMERICAN PROTESTS. OBASANJO
ADVISED THAT WE MUST RECOGNIZED THAT OIL PRODUCTION IN THE
GULF COULD BE AFFECTED SHOULD THE BATTLE AGAINST TERRORISM
ESCALATE SIGNIFICANTLY. ALTHOUGH NIGERIA WAS NEAR MAXIMUM
CAPACITY, HE SUGGESTED THAT THE COUNTRY COULD PROBABLY
INCREASE PRODUCTION MODESTLY -- BY A QUARTER MILLION BARRELS
DAILY -- SHOULD THE EMERGENCY ARISE. AMBASSADOR JETER THANKED
OBASANJO FOR THE GESTURE, AND SAID THAT HE WOULD
CONFIDENTIALLY PASS THE WORD ON TO WASHINGTON.

SIPDIS



4. (C) THE AMBASSADOR THEN NOTED THAT NIGERIA'S MOST
IMMEDIATE SECURITY CONCERN WAS ZAMFARA STATE, WHICH SEEMED
TENSE FOR PURELY LOCAL REASONS. AGREEING, THE PRESIDENT
FORCEFULLY DECLARED, "I HAVE TO DEAL WITH ZAMFARA." HE
REMARKED THAT GOVERNOR SANI SEEMED TO HAVE TAKEN LEAVE OF HIS
BETTER SENSES. INSTEAD OF GOVERNING TO BETTER HIS CITIZENS'
MATERIAL LOT, SANI ERRANTLY MIXED POLITICS AND RELIGION. IF
LEFT TO BREW, THIS UNFORTUNATE ALCHEMY COULD SPREAD TO OTHER
PARTS OF NIGERIA. THAT NEGATIVE DYNAMIC HAD TO BE STOPPED,
OBASANJO DECLARED.



5. (C) HOWEVER, INSTEAD OF FURTHER ESTRANGING SANI, OBASANJO
SAID HE WOULD TRY TO REHABILITATE THE ZAMFARA GOVERNOR. AS A
START, HE WAS CONVOKING FOURTEEN EMINENT PERSONS, INCLUDING
TWO EMIRS, TO ESTABLISH A FACT-FINDING AND RECONCILIATION
COMMITTEE. THE COMMITTEE'S OSTENSIBLE PURPOSE WOULD BE TO
INVESTIGATE THE CAUSES BEHIND LAST WEEK'S RUCTIONS BETWEEN
APP AND PDP ACTIVISTS IN THE STATE. THE REAL REASON,
HOWEVER, WAS TO USE THESE RESPECTED PERSONALITIES TO INJECT
SOME WISDOM INTO SANI'S CONDUCT THUS MITIGATING HIS
INCREASINGLY RADICAL RELIGIOUS POPULISM.



6. (C) A PRINCIPAL CAUSE OF SANI'S POLITICAL DISTEMPER WAS
THE GOVERNOR'S "MORTAL FEAR" OF NSA ALIYU MOHAMMED, A NATIVE
OF ZAMFARA AND A CLEAR POLITICAL RIVAL. OBASANJO RECALLED A
RECENT BRIEF MEETING WHERE THE GOVERNOR SPUTTERED THE NSA'S
NAME "AT LEAST 20 TIMES." SPECIAL ADVISOR OBE INTERJECTED
THAT MOHAMMED WAS NOT HELPING MATTERS BECAUSE HE TREATED SANI
WITH PALPABLE CONTEMPT. AT THE CORE OF SANI'S WOES, OBASANJO
CONFIDED, WAS MALFEASANCE. TO BOLSTER HIS POPULARITY WITH
LOCAL CLERICS, SANI HAD DEPLETED THE STATE TREASURY BY GIVING
FUNDS TO THE ULAMAS. NOW THAT THE COFFERS WERE BARE, HE HAD
NO FUNDS FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE STATE, OBASANJO CONTENDED.



7. (C) AMBASSADOR COMMENTED THAT SANI, SEEMINGLY CLUTCHING
AT STRAWS, HAD APPROACHED AN EMBASSY OFFICER, ASKING THE
EMBASSY TO INTERCEDE WITH NSA MOHAMMED ON HIS BEHALF. A
BEMUSED OBASANJO QUIPPED THAT WE SHOULD HAVE A "CONSTRUCTIVE
ENGAGEMENT" WITH SANI. BECOMING MORE SERIOUS, HE ASKED THAT
WE MAINTAIN CONTACT WITH SANI IN HOPES THAT COMMUNICATION
WITH THE EMBASSY WOULD HAVE A MODERATING EFFECT.



8. (C) TURNING FROM ZAMFARA, OBASANJO STATED THAT HE MET
THE KANO, KADUNA AND KATSINA STATE GOVERNORS OCTOBER 9 TO
ASSESS THE SECURITY SITUATIONS IN THESE THREE STATES. KANO,
WITH ITS TEEMING POPULATION AND LARGE POCKETS OF UNEMPLOYED,
IS ALWAYS PROBLEMATIC. PEOPLE IN KANO WANT TO SHOW THEY ARE
MORE DEVOUT MUSLIMS THAN THEIR BRETHRENS IN SOKOTO, THE
PRESIDENT COMMENTED. FORTUNATELY, THE KANO GOVERNOR WAS GOOD
AND THE EMIR OF KANO WAS THE MOST EFFECTIVE TRADITIONAL
LEADER IN THE NORTH. THE EMIR WAS A STRONG BULWARK AGAINST
FANATICISM, OBASANJO MAINTAINED. AMBASSADOR BROUGHT TO HIS
ATTENTION A PARTICULARLY INFLAMMATORY STATEMENT REPORTEDLY
MADE BY THE KANO STATE BRANCH OF THE ULAMA COUNCIL. OBASANJO
IMMEDIATELY GOT ON THE PHONE TO CALL THE EMIR, BUT
UNFORTUNATELY HE WAS NOT THERE.


--------------
MONEY LAUNDERING
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9. (C) AFTER COMMENDING NIGERIA'S DIPLOMATIC SUPPORT FOR THE
ANTI-TERRORISM COALITION, AMBASSADOR JETER STATED THAT
TERRORISM'S ABILITY TO FINANCE ITSELF HAD TO BE STOPPED. WE
HAVE TO SHUT THE DOOR ON MONEY LAUNDERING IN THIS REGARD.
UNFORTUNATELY, NIGERIA LACKED ADEQUATE LEGISLATION AND AN
APPROPRIATE BUREAUCRATIC FRAMEWORK TO TACKLE THIS ISSUE,
JETER REMARKED. OBASANJO REPLIED THAT THE MINISTRY OF
JUSTICE WAS DRAFTING LEGISLATION CREATING A FINANCIAL CRIMES
COMMISSION THAT WOULD ADDRESS THE MONEY LAUNDERING PROBLEM.
THE PRESIDENT REQUESTED USG ASSISTANCE IN DRAFTING
LEGISLATION AND ESTABLISHING A CORRECT INSTITUTIONAL
FRAMEWORK. THE AMBASSADOR REPLIED THAT WE WOULD SEEK TO HELP
WHERE POSSIBLE.


--------------
MPRI - LET'S TRY IT ONE MORE TIME
--------------



11. (C) JETER STATED THAT THE MPRI CONTRACT TO HELP REFORM
THE NIGERIAN MILITARY HAD REACHED A CRITICAL JUNCTURE. BOTH
SIDES NEEDED TO DECIDE WHETHER THE PROGRAM SHOULD CONTINUE.
FROM THE U.S. PERSPECTIVE, THE NIGERIAN MILITARY LEADERSHIP
DID NOT APPEAR FULLY COMMITTED TO THE PROGRAM. WITHOUT THEIR
SUPPORT, MPRI COULD DO LITTLE, HE STRESSED. CONSEQUENTLY,
RETIRED GENERALS VUONO AND SAINT, THE SENIOR MPRI EXECUTIVES,
NEEDED "TO SELL" THEIR PROGRAM TO THE NEW MILITARY LEADERSHIP
WHEN THE MPRI DUO VISIT NIGERIA LATER THIS WEEK. IF THEY
COULD CONVINCE THE SERVICE CHIEFS ABOUT THE PROGRAM'S
UTILITY, THEN IT MIGHT BE PRUDENT TO END THE PROGRAM.
OBASANJO OBSERVED THAT THE SERVICE CHIEFS HAD GRUMBLED TO HIM
THAT THEY HAD NOT SEEN ANY TANGIBLE BENEFITS FROM MPRI THUS
FAR. JETER REMINDED THE PRESIDENT THAT MPRI'S MANDATE WAS
INSTITUTIONAL REFORM; THUS, TANGIBLE ITEMS LIKE EQUIPMENT OR
EVEN TRAINING WERE NEVER IN THE OFFING.



12. (C) COMMENT. SUFFERING FROM A COLD, OBASANJO OTHERWISE
SEEMED AS FIT AND LIVELY AS EVER. HE WAS WELL BRIEFED ON
SECURITY AND BELIEVED HE HELD MATTERS WELL IN HAND. THE
SUPPORT THAT OBASANJO IS GIVING OUR COUNTER-TERRORISM EFFORTS
CAN ONLY BE DESCRIBED AS ENCOURAGING. HIS HINT AT INCREASED
OIL PRODUCTION, ALBEIT ONLY MODEST, IN THE WAKE OF POSSIBLE
PERSIAN GULF DISRUPTIONS IS AN IMPORTANT SYMBOLIC GESTURE.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO DO WHAT WE CAN TO MAINTAIN AND FURTHER
CULTIVATED OBASANJO'S AND NIGERIA'S SUPPORT IN THE GLOBAL
ANTI-TERRORISM EFFORT.


Jeter