NIGERIA: GOVERNOR OF KEBBI'S THOUGHTS ON THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 002151

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/22/2011
TAGS: PGOV EAGR NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: GOVERNOR OF KEBBI'S THOUGHTS ON THE
NIGERIAN POLITICAL SCENE


REF: ABUJA 1446


(U) Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter; Reasons 1.5 (b)
and (d).



1. (C) SUMMARY: The Governor of Kebbi, Mohammed Aleiro,
called on Ambassador Jeter on August 26. Aleiro was in Abuja
prior to his trip with President Obasanjo to China. In
addition to a discussion of Kebbi-specific issues, Aleiro
stated that he did not believe Babangida would run against
Obasanjo in 2003. He also said rumors that Governor Makarfi
would challenge the Vice President for his position were
untrue. END SUMMARY.



2. (C) The Governor of Kebbi, Mohammed Aleiro, called on
Ambassador Jeter on August 26. Aleiro thanked the Ambassador
for his June trip to Kebbi State (Reftel),and hoped to have
further discussions regarding agriculture, education, and
health care for Kebbi. The Ambassador informed the Governor
about the Embassy's Self-Help program, the recently signed
USD 18.5m agreement between USAID and the National Planning
Commission and other assistance efforts by the Mission. The
Ambassador also offered to arrange a meeting for the Governor
and his staff with USAID to discuss agricultural development,
education and healthcare. Aleiro asked about the value of a
trip to the United States to seek investment and cooperative
agreements for Kebbi. Ambassador Jeter noted that other
governors had done so with some success, and offered to help
arrange a visit if the Governor was so inclined.



3. (C) The Ambassador mentioned his desire to recommend to
the President a national conference on HIV/AIDS, which would
include all of Nigeria's governors and relevant Cabinet
officials, to sensitize the Nigerian populace on the issue.
Governor Aleiro was extremely supportive, and stated that he
would begin discussing this idea with his fellow governors.
The Ambassador also mentioned that it appeared as though
Peace Corps would be returning to Nigeria, and offered that
Kebbi State might be a good place for the Corps to consider,
once it begins to expand its operations out of Plateau State.
Aleiro agreed, and pointed out that Kebbi did not suffer
from the type of security concerns of many other states.



4. (C) The Ambassador, noting that he understood that
President Obasanjo had originally been the "candidate of the
North," asked if it was true that the President was now
unpopular in the North. Aleiro, who belongs to the
"opposition APP party," said this was "quite true," but
opined that there was no viable alternative to Obasanjo.
Obasanjo had kept Nigeria united and had sustained democracy.
Aleiro further explained that there was a "certain group in
the North" that had always been in or been connected to power
in Nigeria, but were not in power now. This group, the
Governor lamented, was agitating against the President.
However, Obasanjo had opposed resource control efforts by the
South-South states, a position supported by Northerners, and
many in the South-East. Obasanjo's strong federalism was
also in the interest of the North, the Governor added. While
Obasanjo had demonstrated poor performance on roads,
electricity, universal basic education and security thus far,
the Governor praised the President's firm support for
stability and national unity, positions that were critical
for Nigeria, especially now. Thus, Aleiro wanted Obasanjo to
continue as President.



5. (C) The Ambassador asked whether the Governor believed
former Head of State Babangida (IBB) would run against
Obasanjo in 2003. Aleiro said no, and flatly remarked,
"(His) record in government is nothing to write home about."
Aleiro said IBB might push a candidate he could control, but
thought most of IBB's political machinations were for his own
security and assets; a hedge against any who might try to use
him as a political scapegoat. Eventually, all of IBB's
political associations would merge with PDP (the President's
party),Aleiro thought. He added that the south-west, and in
fact all of Nigeria, would never forget Babangida's annulment
of the election in 1993, which had been accepted as free and
fair throughout Nigeria.



6. (C) Ambassador Jeter asked the Governor about complaints
of the North being marginalized in Nigerian politics. Aleiro
dismissed this as a "misperception of time and situation"
among certain groups in the North. The North had ruled
Nigeria for a long time, and now had to accept that power
needed to be shared in the country.



7. (C) The Ambassador then asked if the Governor believed the
President might select another running-mate in the place of
Vice President Atiku Abubakar, such as Governor Makarfi of
Kaduna State. Aleiro stated that a lot of influential
individuals were pushing Makarfi to challenge the Vice
President, but he did not believe Makarfi would do so.
(Makarfi, in fact, has publicly disavowed any intention of
challenging the VP.) First, Atiku was a consummate
politician, and the President could not run a campaign
successfully without him. The VP had huge political backing
from many within the PDP, formerly the People's Democratic
Movement, and was seen as the political successor of the late
Shehu Yusa Yar'adua. The VP was also extremely loyal to the
President. Secondly, according to Aleiro, Makarfi had stated
both to the VP directly and to others that he would not
campaign for the VP's job. According to Aleiro, Makarfi had
said he was not interested in the job as long as Atiku was in
it, and was more focused on continuing as governor in his
State.



8. (C) COMMENT: Aleiro's comments were revealing. It was a
surprise to hear a Northern Governor, and a member of the APP
party, unambiguously and strongly state his support for
President Obasanjo. His criticisms, as well as his
compliments, of the present Administration were thoughtful,
and seemed to be an honest assessment. END COMMENT.
Jeter