Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
01ABUJA2026
2001-08-14 13:43:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Abuja
Cable title:  

NIGERIA: THE 2002-2003 ELECTIONS -- THE "BIG

Tags:  KDEM PGOV NI 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 002026 

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/14/2011
TAGS: KDEM PGOV NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: THE 2002-2003 ELECTIONS -- THE "BIG
ENCHILADA"


Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter; Reason 1.5 (d).


C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 002026

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/14/2011
TAGS: KDEM PGOV NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: THE 2002-2003 ELECTIONS -- THE "BIG
ENCHILADA"


Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter; Reason 1.5 (d).



1. (C) SUMMARY: Joe Baxter, Nigeria Country Director for the
International Foundation for Election Systems (IFES),called
on Ambassador Jeter on August 6 to discuss the 2002 local
government (LG) elections and the national elections in 2003.
Baxter also discussed the National Identity Card and Voter
Identity Card projects, and the work and political
independence of the Nigerian Independent National Election
Commission (INEC). According to Baxter, the next six months
will be critical in terms of voter registration, party
registration and the passage of the new election law. Baxter
emphasized that Nigeria's international partners, including
the U.S., can play a critical role in ensuring fair elections
free of violence by making clear their expectations for the
elections. Traditional and religious leaders also can play a
key role in keeping election violence to a minimum. Baxter
expressed a desire for NGOs and civil society to play an
active, rather than a solely observational, role in the
election process. The Mission has begun to hold regular
meetings with other "friends of Nigeria" to prepare for the
upcoming elections, and to design a plan to play an actively
supportive role in the development of this absolutely
critical piece in Nigeria's consolidation of its democracy,
including the establishment of a Mission Elections Working
Group, chaired by the Ambassador. END SUMMARY.



2. (U) On August 6, Joe Baxter, the Director of IFES, called
on Ambassador Jeter to provide an update on IFES work.
PolMilOff (notetaker) and USAID Democracy and Governance
Advisor were also in attendance.


=================
IDENTITY PROBLEMS
=================



3. (C) According to Baxter, President Obasanjo's decision to
select the French SAGEM consortium for the National Identity
Card project posed difficulty for the upcoming elections.
INEC had, with IFES endorsement, requested OMR (Optical Mark
Recognition) technology for voter registration cards (SAGEM's
technology, Intelligent Character Recognition (ICR),is more
liable to mistakes and therefore is a slower process of data
input). Had the President selected a consortium using OMR
technology, the process of producing voter registration

cards, as well as national identity cards, would have held
out the hope of having a computerized voter register for the
2002 local government elections. However, with SAGEM getting
the nod, and the attendant delay in SAGEM's inability to
bring the equipment until January or February, the 2002 local
government elections would likely go forward with handwritten
registers and temporary voter cards, both recipes for fraud.
Baxter opined that the best way to prevent fraud was to have
high voter registration and turn-out. However, with SAGEM
planning only 60,000 registration stations (vice the 120,000
identified in the original call for bids),it will be
difficult for many people living in the North and rural areas
to register. Thus, Northerners in particular may see this as
an attempt to reduce their voter participation. Baxter said
that this was why INEC was seeking government approval to go
it alone for the 2002 local government elections, using
120,000 registration stations and hand-written rolls.


============================================= ==
INDEPENDENT NATIONAL ELECTION COMMISSION (INEC)
============================================= ==



4. (C) INEC's credibility has fallen in the eyes of many
Nigerians. Many see INEC in the pocket of the PDP (the INEC
Chairman and other INEC officials are PDP members),but
according to Baxter the Chairman is not "a PDP stalwart."
INEC has proposed an election law to the National Assembly, a
modified version of which will probably be passed this fall.
The proposed law will raise the bar for registration of
parties above the requirements established by the
constitution, a position that reinforces perceptions that the
INEC is under the influence of the Executive, and thus not
"independent." Due to this and other assertions of INEC
prerogatives, and INEC representatives' general lack of
preparedness, INEC took a "beating" during the National
Assembly hearings on the proposed law. However, Baxter
noted, this showed good oversight by the National Assembly,
also a critical piece of the democratic process. To regain
its credibility, INEC needs to work even harder to prove it
can and will conduct the elections efficiently and without
bias.


========================
ELECTIONS ON THE HORIZON
========================



5. (C) Local government elections will take place in 2002
(for a one year term if the proposed law is passed),and then
national elections in 2003, which will include local, state
and federal elections. (COMMENT: INEC is responsible for
voter registration in all elections, but the local government
elections will be managed by independent state electoral
commissions (ISECs). ISECs are not seen as being prepared;
however, aside from supporting more interaction between them
and INEC and some very basic training, they are not a key
target for assistance, since the ISECs may be superceded by
INEC if the new law establishes a uniform date for local,
state and federal elections in 2003. END COMMENT.)



6. (C) According to Baxter, the biggest threat to free and
fair elections is violence and the zero-sum pursuit of
office, which could include the purchasing of votes and abuse
of state government owned and controlled media. (COMMENT:
State media is controlled directly by the governor.
Moreover, politics in Nigeria is still dominated by money and
personalities, not agendas or policy alternatives, so a
winner-take-all attitude prevails, which may lead to the use
of violence to manipulate outcomes. END COMMENT.) Baxter
stated that a culture of "no-tolerance" toward violence needs
to be created. Traditional and religious leaders can have
the greatest influence in this area. However, INEC is also
beginning to develop a code of conduct for the parties, but
there are still questions about its ability to apply
sanctions against those who break the rules. IFES has
suggested to INEC that the INEC internal code of conduct be
developed in concert with civil society groups to build
buy-in to the code. Internal party codes of conduct will
also help. IFES has also suggested INEC hold monthly
meetings with political parties and the Inter-Party Advisory
Committee to build confidence and to give them a voice in
determining the rules of the game. Moreover, Baxter opined,
civil society will need to be heavily engaged in the full
election process - monitoring should be seen as a broad
process of observing voter registration, party nominations
and campaigns, as well as voting. Monitors should be
prepared to act quickly to publicize infractions. (COMMENT:
Nigerian NGOs have also expressed the need for such a
broadened definition of monitoring as well as for assistance,
to achieve a sufficient level of preparedness to carry out
these functions. END COMMENT)



7. (C) Ambassador Jeter stated that it would be important to
establish benchmarks for free and fair elections, and asked
Baxter what role the Mission and other donors could play at
this early stage in ensuring a free, fair and transparent
election process. Baxter concluded that donors could have
the greatest impact by making clear to the GON the
expectation that elections will have to be peaceful, credible
and adequately funded. Moreover, donors could begin to speak
publicly against election violence to shape public
expectations. This election would be the "big enchilada" for
Nigeria, Baxter stated, and outside attention and assistance
are critical.



8. (SBU) Ambassador Jeter noted that the Mission would begin
that same week to have internal meetings to plan for its role
in the elections, and the Mission's Elections Working Group
would meet on a scheduled basis throughout the election
process. Regular meetings of donors have already begun to
turn their focus to elections. Planning among the "friends
of Nigeria" could also lead to a joint demarche about
expectations for the elections. Baxter was clearly
supportive of these efforts.



9. (C) COMMENT: Baxter's insight into the process leading to
elections next year and in 2003 were instructive and useful.
The local government elections in 2002 are likely to be a
test case for the national elections the following year.
Thus, efforts by "friends of Nigeria" to emphasize
non-violence and the importance of free and fair elections in
the first round will have a direct impact on the 2003 LG,
State, National Assembly and Presidential polls. However,
free and fair elections are not enough; the process leading
to the elections must be open and transparent as well.
Embassy plans to use its Elections Working Group to design an
effective Mission plan for elections.



10. (U) COMMENT CONTINUED: USAID has provided assistance to
IFES for the past two years, and this assistance is expected
to continue through 2003. END COMMENT.
Jeter