Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
00HARARE7271
2000-12-28 13:49:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Harare
Cable title:  

SIZEABLE SHORTFALL IN MAIZE PRODUCTION IN 2001

Tags:  EAGR EAID ZI 
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281349Z Dec 00


 CONFIDENTIAL PTQ7689

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 ACE-00 SP-00 SSO-00 STR-00 USIE-00 BBG-00 DRL-02 
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 ------------------B06BEC 281351Z /38 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 7901
INFO NSC WASHDC
USDOC WASHDC
DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
USDA FAS WASHDC
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 007271 

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GSMITH
USDOC FOR 4510/EHENDERSON
TREASURY FOR OASIA/EBARBER, BHOFFMAN

LONDON FOR CGURNEY
PARIS FOR BWILLIAMS
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER
PRETORIA FOR RHELM
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 07271 01 OF 03 281349Z
PASS USAID FOR AFR/SD - DWELLER, AFR/SA - CPALMA,
NNEWMAN, AA/AFR

USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER

E.O. 12958: DECL 12/28/10
TAGS: EAGR EAID ZI
SUBJECT: SIZEABLE SHORTFALL IN MAIZE PRODUCTION IN 2001
LOOMS AS A REAL POSSIBILITY FOR ZIMBABWE


CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D' AFFAIRES EARL M. IRVING FOR
REASONS 1.5 (B/D).

REFS: A. HARARE 6190, B. HARARE 6662

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 007271

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GSMITH
USDOC FOR 4510/EHENDERSON
TREASURY FOR OASIA/EBARBER, BHOFFMAN

LONDON FOR CGURNEY
PARIS FOR BWILLIAMS
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER
PRETORIA FOR RHELM
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 07271 01 OF 03 281349Z
PASS USAID FOR AFR/SD - DWELLER, AFR/SA - CPALMA,
NNEWMAN, AA/AFR

USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER

E.O. 12958: DECL 12/28/10
TAGS: EAGR EAID ZI
SUBJECT: SIZEABLE SHORTFALL IN MAIZE PRODUCTION IN 2001
LOOMS AS A REAL POSSIBILITY FOR ZIMBABWE


CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D' AFFAIRES EARL M. IRVING FOR
REASONS 1.5 (B/D).

REFS: A. HARARE 6190, B. HARARE 6662


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: THE LATEST MAIZE SEED SALES DATA

INDICATE THAT NATIONAL MAIZE PLANTING IS DOWN 25 PERCENT
FROM NORMAL LEVELS. THE ZIMBABWE GRAIN PRODUCERS
ASSOCIATION (ZPGA),REPRESENTING LARGE SCALE COMMERCIAL
MAIZE PRODUCERS, PUBLISHED A STATEMENT ON DECEMBER 20
APPEALING FOR ITS MEMBERS TO PLANT MORE MAIZE BEFORE THE
END OF THE MONTH. SMALL-SCALE MAIZE PRODUCERS AND
COMMUNAL FARMERS MAY PLANT MORE MAIZE BEFORE THE END OF
DECEMBER, BUT THEY ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY AFFORDING THE
INPUTS NEEDED BECAUSE OF THE SHARP RISE IN THE PRICES OF
SEED, FERTILIZER, OTHER CHEMICALS, AND DIESEL, COMBINED
WITH THE FAILURE OF THE PARASTATAL GRAIN MARKETING BOARD
(GMB) TO PAY THESE FARMERS FOR THE 2000 HARVEST.
FORECASTS FOR NORMAL TO ABOVE-NORMAL RAINFALL IN THE
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 03 HARARE 07271 01 OF 03 281349Z
PRINCIPAL MAIZE GROWING REGIONS IN ZIMBABWE MAY HELP TO
OFFSET THE PLANTING SHORTFALL BY INCREASING YIELDS. THE
GMB CLAIMS TO HAVE 600,000 METRIC TONS OF MAIZE IN ITS
STRATEGIC GRAIN RESERVE, WHICH, IF ACCURATE, SHOULD
COVER THE PREDICTED SHORTFALL OF MAIZE IN THE 2001
HARVEST. ZIMBABWE ALSO FACES A LARGER THAN NORMAL
SHORTFALL IN WHEAT, NECESSITATING INCREASED WHEAT
IMPORTS AT A TIME WHEN THE GOVERNMENT OF ZIMBABWE (GOZ)
HAS NO FOREIGN CURRENCY TO PURCHASE SUCH IMPORTS. THE
REAL CRUNCH IN THE MAIZE SUPPLY MAY COME IN THE 2001/02
SEASON. PLANTING OF MAIZE FOR SEED IS ONLY 38 PERCENT
OF LAST YEAR'S TOTAL. IF THE GOZ FOLLOWS THROUGH ON ITS
"FAST-TRACK" RESETTLEMENT PROGRAM, REPLACING THE 2673
COMMERCIAL FARMS THAT HAVE BEEN GAZETTED FOR COMPULSORY
ACQUISITION WITH THOUSANDS OF ILL-EQUIPPED SMALL-SCALE
FARMERS, ZIMBABWE'S FOOD SECURITY IS LIKELY TO SUFFER.

END SUMMARY.

-------------- --
THE ZPGA MAKES A PLEA TO FARMERS TO PLANT MAIZE
-------------- --


2. (SBU) ON DECEMBER 20 THE CHAIRMAN OF THE ZIMBABWE
GRAIN PRODUCERS ASSOCIATION (ZGPA),ANDREW MEIKLE,
RELEASED A STATEMENT TO THE PRESS URGING LARGE SCALE
MAIZE GROWERS TO MAXIMIZE THE HECTARAGE PLANTED WITH
MAIZE BEFORE THE SEASON ENDS ON DECEMBER 31. THE
CHAIRMAN STATED THAT HE WAS TAKING THE ACTION FOR TWO
REASONS: FIRST, BECAUSE THE CURRENT CROP WILL NOT MEET
ZIMBABWE'S MAIZE NEEDS AND WILL LEAD TO A HIGHER PRICE
FOR MAIZE, AND SECOND, TO COUNTER A ZIMBABWE
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PAGE 04 HARARE 07271 01 OF 03 281349Z
BROADCASTING CORPORATION (ZBC) TELEVISION STORY THAT
STATED THAT COMMERCIAL FARMERS WERE SWITCHING FROM MAIZE
TO OTHER CROPS AS A PLOT (NOT STATED, BUT IMPLIED, TO
CAUSE A SHORTFALL IN THE NEXT MAIZE HARVEST THAT WOULD
BE BLAMED ON THE GOZ'S LAND REFORM PROGRAM.) THE
CHAIRMAN WENT ON TO STATE THAT THE LARGE SCALE
COMMERCIAL MAIZE PRODUCER HAS ALWAYS FELT A MORAL
RESPONSIBILITY FOR FOOD SECURITY IN ZIMBABWE, AND THE
REAL REASONS THAT MAIZE HECTARAGE WAS DOWN ON COMMERCIAL
FARMS WAS DUE TO THE ON-GOING LAND INVASIONS AND WORK
STOPPAGES, THE LACK OF PROFITABILITY OF MAIZE AS A CROP,
AND THE INABILITY OF MANY COMMERCIAL GROWERS TO OBTAIN
FINANCING FROM BANKS DUE TO THE GOZ "FAST-TRACK" LAND
REFORM PROGRAM AND COMPULSORY ACQUISITION.

-------------- --------------
STRATEGIC GRAIN RESERVE SHOULD COVER MAIZE SHORTFALL
-------------- --------------


3. (U) ECONOFF SPOKE WITH VARIOUS PLAYERS IN THE MAIZE
INDUSTRY IN ZIMBABWE TO GET BACKGROUND ON THE MAIZE
SUPPLY AND HARVEST PREDICTIONS FOR ZIMBABWE. THESE
INCLUDED VANESSA MCKAY, PRINCIPAL ADMINISTRATOR OF THE
ZIMBABWE GRAIN PRODUCERS ASSOCIATION (ZGPA),RICHARD
AMYOT, DEPUTY DIRECTOR OF COMMODITIES FOR THE COMMERCIAL

CONFIDENTIAL

CONFIDENTIAL PTO7277

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ACTION AID-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AF-00 AMAD-00 CIAE-00 CTME-00 USNW-00
DODE-00 SRPP-00 EB-00 EXIM-01 E-00 VC-00 FRB-00
H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 ITC-01 AC-01 NSAE-00 OMB-01
OPIC-01 ACE-00 SP-00 SSO-00 STR-00 USIE-00 DRL-02
G-00 SAS-00 /008W
-------------- B06BFA 281351Z /38
R 281349Z DEC 00
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 7902
INFO NSC WASHDC
USDOC WASHDC
DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
USDA FAS WASHDC
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 007271

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GSMITH
USDOC FOR 4510/EHENDERSON
TREASURY FOR OASIA/EBARBER, BHOFFMAN

LONDON FOR CGURNEY
PARIS FOR BWILLIAMS
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER
PRETORIA FOR RHELM
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 07271 02 OF 03 281350Z
PASS USAID FOR AFR/SD - DWELLER, AFR/SA - CPALMA,
NNEWMAN, AA/AFR

USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER

E.O. 12958: DECL 12/28/10
TAGS: EAGR EAID ZI

SUBJECT: SIZEABLE SHORTFALL IN MAIZE PRODUCTION IN 2001
LOOMS AS A REAL POSSIBILITY FOR ZIMBABWE

FARMERS UNION (CFU),IAN GOGGIN OF THE ZIMBABWE
AGRICULTURAL COMMODITY EXCHANGE (ZIMACE),AND ELLIOT
VHURUMUKU, COUNTRY REPRESENTATIVE OF THE ZIMBABWE FAMINE
EARLY WARNING SYSTEM NETWORK. EFFORTS TO SPEAK WITH
OFFICIALS AT THE PARASTATAL GRAIN MARKETING BOARD (GMB)
AND THE MINISTRY OF LANDS, AGRICULTURE AND RURAL
RESETTLEMENT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL. ALL CONTACTS AGREED
THAT IF THE GMB REPORT OF 600,000 METRIC TONS OF MAIZE
IN THE STRATEGIC GRAIN RESERVE IS ACCURATE, ZIMBABWE
SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT MAIZE RESERVES TO GET IT THROUGH
TO THE APRIL HARVEST. ZIMBABWE CONSUMES ABOUT 1,800,000
METRIC TONS OF MAIZE PER YEAR, AND THIS YEAR'S MAIZE
CROP ESTIMATE BASED ON SEED SALES IS FOR 1,200,000
METRIC TONS, LEAVING THE GMB STRATEGIC GRAIN RESERVE TO
COVER THE SHORTFALL.

--------------
THE REAL CRUNCH MAY COME IN 2002
--------------

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 03 HARARE 07271 02 OF 03 281350Z

4. (SBU) ALL THE CONTACTS AGREED THAT THE REAL SHORTFALL
IN MAIZE PRODUCTION, AND CONSEQUENT THREAT TO ZIMBABWE'S
FOOD SECURITY, WILL OCCUR DURING THE 2001/2002 SEASON IF
THINGS STAY THE SAME IN ZIMBABWE. THIS IS FOR VARIOUS
REASONS. IF THE GOZ FOLLOWS THROUGH ON THE COMPULSORY
ACQUISITION OF THE COMMERCIAL FARMS THAT ARE LARGE-SCALE
MAIZE PRODUCERS, THERE IS NO QUESTION THAT THE COUNTRY'S
MAIZE PRODUCTION WILL SEE A SHARP DECREASE. IN THE
JUST-ENDED HARVEST SEASON, LARGE-SCALE MAIZE PRODUCERS
PRODUCED 850,000 METRIC TONS OF MAIZE ON JUST 162,000
HECTARES, WHILE THE SMALL-SCALE AND COMMUNAL FARMERS
PRODUCED 1,100,000 METRIC TONS, BUT ON 1,100,000
HECTARES. EVEN IF THE GOZ INSTRUCTED ALL RESETTLED
PEOPLE TO GROW MAIZE AND PROVIDED THEM WITH NEEDED CROP
INPUTS, A VIRTUAL IMPOSSIBILITY GIVEN THE GOZ'S
BUDGETARY CONSTRAINTS AND PAST TRACK RECORD, IT IS
EXTREMELY DOUBTFUL THAT THESE NEWLY RESETTLED FARMERS
WOULD BE ABLE TO REPLACE THE MAIZE PRODUCTION LOST FROM
THE LARGE-SCALE COMMERCIAL PRODUCERS.


5. (U) ANOTHER FACTOR IN THIS SCENARIO IS THE RISING
COST OF INPUTS NEEDED FOR MAIZE PRODUCTION. IN
PARTICULAR, FERTILIZER AND DIESEL FUEL COSTS HAVE
INCREASED DRAMATICALLY THIS YEAR, AND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO INCREASE SINCE BOTH PRODUCTS ARE IMPORTED.
THE SMALL-SCALE AND COMMUNAL FARMERS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING TO GET THE MONEY TO PLANT FOR THIS MAIZE
SEASON, AND THE SITUATION WILL LIKELY BE WORSE NEXT
YEAR. THE GOZ HAS SET A PRELIMINARY MARKET PRICE OF
5,500 ZIMBABWE DOLLARS FOR A METRIC TON OF MAIZE, WHILE
THE ZPGA ESTIMATES THAT IT CURRENTLY COSTS ITS MEMBERS
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PAGE 04 HARARE 07271 02 OF 03 281350Z
7,000 ZIMBABWE DOLLARS TO PRODUCE A METRIC TON. WHILE
SMALL-SCALE AND COMMUNAL FARMERS' COSTS ARE LOWER THAN
THAT OF LARGE-SCALE PRODUCERS; THEIR FINANCIAL VIABILITY
REMAINS QUESTIONABLE AT CURRENT GOZ DETERMINED MAIZE
PRICES.


6. (U) LASTLY, SEED MAIZE PLANTINGS ARE REPORTED BY THE
ZPGA TO BE ONLY 38 PERCENT OF THE HECTARAGE PLANTED LAST
YEAR. THIS IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO BOTH THE FARM
INVASIONS, BECAUSE SEED MAIZE CROPS ARE HIGHLY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO DAMAGE DUE TO CROSS-FERTILIZATION WITH
REGULAR MAIZE PLANTED BY FARM OCCUPIERS, AS WELL AS THE
CURRENTLY POOR FINANCIAL VIABILITY IN ZIMBABWE OF MAIZE
AS A CROP. BECAUSE THIS SEED MAIZE HAS BEEN SPECIALLY
ADAPTED TO THE GROWING CONDITIONS IN ZIMBABWE, IT CANNOT
BE IMPORTED FROM MANY PLACES OTHER THAN SOUTH AFRICA AND
MALAWI, COUNTRIES TO WHICH ZIMBABWE HISTORICALLY HAS
EXPORTED SEED MAIZE.


7. (C) ALL OF THESE FACTORS LEAD THE EXPERTS TO CONCLUDE
THAT IF THE GOZ CONTINUES FULL-STEAM AHEAD WITH THE
"FAST-TRACK" COMPULSORY ACQUISITION OF LARGE-SCALE MAIZE
PRODUCING COMMERCIAL FARMS; AND RESETTLES THESE FARMS
WITHOUT PROVIDING FOR NEEDED CROP INPUTS, NOT TO MENTION

CONFIDENTIAL

CONFIDENTIAL PTQ7693

PAGE 01 HARARE 07271 03 OF 03 281350Z
ACTION AID-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AF-00 AMAD-00 CIAE-00 CTME-00 DODE-00
SRPP-00 EB-00 EXIM-01 E-00 VC-00 FRB-00 H-01
TEDE-00 INR-00 ITC-01 AC-01 NSAE-00 OMB-01 OPIC-01
ACE-00 SP-00 SSO-00 STR-00 USIE-00 DRL-02 G-00
SAS-00 /008W
-------------- B06C09 281351Z /38
R 281349Z DEC 00
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 7903
INFO NSC WASHDC
USDOC WASHDC
DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
USDA FAS WASHDC
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 007271

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GSMITH
USDOC FOR 4510/EHENDERSON
TREASURY FOR OASIA/EBARBER, BHOFFMAN

LONDON FOR CGURNEY
PARIS FOR BWILLIAMS
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER
PRETORIA FOR RHELM
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 07271 03 OF 03 281350Z
PASS USAID FOR AFR/SD - DWELLER, AFR/SA - CPALMA,
NNEWMAN, AA/AFR

USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER

E.O. 12958: DECL 12/28/10
TAGS: EAGR EAID ZI

SUBJECT: SIZEABLE SHORTFALL IN MAIZE PRODUCTION IN 2001
LOOMS AS A REAL POSSIBILITY FOR ZIMBABWE

THE MINIMAL INFRASTRUCTURE NEEDED FOR SUCCESSFUL
FARMING, THERE WILL BE A DRAMATIC REDUCTION IN THE SIZE
OF THE 2001/2002 MAIZE HARVEST. PAST GOZ EFFORTS AT
PROVIDING SUPPORT TO RESETTLED FARMERS INDICATE THAT ANY
ASSISTANCE PROVIDED WILL BE MINIMAL. THIS REALITY IS
COMPOUNDED BY THE SEVERE BUDGET CONSTRAINTS CURRENTLY
FACED BY THE GOZ. ZIMBABWE WILL THUS BE FACING A
POTENTIALLY MAJOR REDUCTION IN THE SIZE OF ITS 2001/2002
MAIZE CROP AT THE SAME TIME THAT ITS STRATEGIC GRAIN
RESERVE WILL HAVE BEEN DEPLETED AND THE GOZ WILL LACK
HARD CURRENCY TO PURCHASE MAIZE ON THE INTERNATIONAL
MARKET. THESE FACTORS ALL COMBINE TO RAISE THE CONCERN
OF THE EXPERTS THAT WHILE ZIMBABWE'S FOOD SECURITY
SITUATION IS SATISFACTORY RIGHT NOW, A YEAR FROM NOW THE
COUNTRY COULD BE FACING A SITUATION OF FOOD INSECURITY.
OUR SOURCES ALL CLAIM THAT IF THE PREDICTED RAINFALL FOR
ZIMBABWE THIS SEASON DOES NOT MATERIALIZE, OR THE
COUNTRY DOES NOT RECEIVE GOOD RAINFALL DURING THE
2001/2002 SEASON, FOOD SECURITY COULD BECOME A SERIOUS
CRISIS SITUATION OF SIGNIFICANT PROPORTIONS.
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PAGE 03 HARARE 07271 03 OF 03 281350Z


8. COMMENT: (C) THE ZPGA CHAIRMAN CLEARLY FELT THAT HE
HAD TO ISSUE THE STATEMENT ENCOURAGING COMMERCIAL
FARMERS TO PLANT MAIZE TO COUNTER THE GOZ'S NOT SO
SUBTLE PROPAGANDA CAMPAIGN ALLEGING THAT COMMERCIAL
FARMERS (AND WHITE ZIMBABWEANS IN GENERAL) ARE
SABOTAGING AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION, AND THE ECONOMY AS A
WHOLE: TO DISCREDIT THE "FAST-TRACK" LAND PROGRAM; TO
UNDERMINE PRESIDENT MUGABE AND ZANU-PF; OR MOST
RIDICULOUSLY, IN ORDER TO STARVE BLACK ZIMBABWEANS. THE
GOZ KNOWS THAT ITS "FAST TRACK" LAND PROGRAM, IF CARRIED
OUT TO ITS LOGICAL CONCLUSION, IS GOING TO LEAD TO A
DRAMATIC DECREASE IN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AT THE VERY
LEAST LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM, BUT AS IT IS WONT, WILL
NOT TAKE RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE FAILURE OF ITS POLICY,
BUT RATHER WILL SEEK A CONVENIENT SCAPEGOAT. END
COMMENT.

IRVING

CONFIDENTIAL

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