ZANU-PF WINS MARONDERA WEST BY-ELECTION; LOW

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 006658

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH
LONDON FOR CGURNEY
PARIS FOR BWILLIAMS
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER
PASS USAID FOR AFR/SD - DWELLER, AND AFR/SA - CPALMA,

NNEWMAN

PASS USTR - ROSA WHITAKER
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 06658 01 OF 02 282215Z

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/28/10
TAGS: PGOV PINR PHUM ZI
SUBJECT: ZANU-PF WINS MARONDERA WEST BY-ELECTION; LOW
TURNOUT LIKELY THE RESULT OF PRE-ELECTION INTIMIDATION

CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR TOM MCDONALD FOR REASONS 1.5
(B) AND (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: THE RULING PARTY ZANU-PF CANDIDATE WON
THE BY-ELECTION FOR THE MARONDERA WEST PARLIAMENTARY
SEAT HELD NOVEMBER 25 AND 26. VOTING WAS PEACEFUL, BUT
THE TURNOUT WAS LOW - JUST UNDER A THIRD OF THE
REGISTERED VOTERS. DISTRICT RESIDENTS TOLD EMBASSY AND
NGO PERSONNEL ON NOVEMBER 25 THAT THERE HAD BEEN A HIGH
DEGREE OF INTIMIDATION OF VOTERS IN THE RUN-UP TO THE
BY-ELECTION BY ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS, WAR VETERANS, AND THE
POLICE AND MILITARY THAT RESULTED IN ONE DEATH.
INTIMIDATION OF VOTERS WAS NOT EVIDENT TO US ON THE
VOTING DAYS OF NOVEMBER 25 AND 26. POLL WATCHERS FOR
BOTH ZANU-PF AND MDC WERE ALLOWED TO MONITOR THE VOTING
AND SAFEGUARD THE BALLOT BOXES, BUT DUE TO THE PRE-
ELECTION INTIMIDATION, THE ELECTION CANNOT BE CONSIDERED
TO HAVE BEEN FREE AND FAIR IN OUR JUDGEMENT. END
SUMMARY.

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THE ZANU-PF CANDIDATE WINS, BUT WITH A SMALLER MAJORITY
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2. (C) THE ZANU-PF CANDIDATE IN THE MARONDERA WEST BY-
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PAGE 03 HARARE 06658 01 OF 02 282215Z
ELECTION, AMBROSE MUTINHIRI, A RETIRED BRIGADIER GENERAL
AND FORMER AMBASSADOR TO YUGOSLAVIA, WON THE ELECTION,
BUT GARNERED FAR FEWER VOTES THAN HIS PREDECESSOR, WHOSE
DEATH IN A CAR ACCIDENT IN JULY BROUGHT ABOUT THE BY-
ELECTION. THE NOVEMBER 28 ISSUE OF THE GOZ-CONTROLLED
"THE HERALD" NEWSPAPER REPORTED MUTINHIRI RECEIVED 7,376
VOTES VERSUS 4,366 VOTES FOR THE MDC CANDIDATE SHADRECK
CHIPANGURA. MUTINHIRI RECEIVED ALMOST 4,000 FEWER VOTES
THAN THE ZANU-PF CANDIDATE IN LAST JUNE'S PARLIAMENTARY
ELECTION, WHILE THE MDC CANDIDATE ONLY RECEIVED 200
FEWER VOTES. THIS LOWERED VOTE TALLY OCCURRED EVEN
THOUGH ZANU-PF PULLED OUT ALL THE STOPS IN THE CAMPAIGN,
WITH BIASED MEDIA COVERAGE, THE USE OF WAR VETERANS TO
PROMOTE THE ZANU-PF CANDIDATE AND INTIMIDATE MDC
SUPPORTERS, AND PERSONAL CAMPAIGNING BY CHENJERAI
"HITLER" HUNZVI, THE CHAIRMAN OF THE ZIMBABWE NATIONAL
LIBERATION WAR VETERANS ASSOCIATION, AND RETIRED ZDF
GENERAL AND ZANU-PF HEAVYWEIGHT SOLOMON MUJURU.

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MARONDERA WEST BY-ELECTION HELD ON UNEVEN PLAYING FIELD
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3. (C) ECONOFF, THE USAID DEMOCRACY AND GOVERNANCE
OFFICER, A USAID FOREIGN SERVICE NATIONAL AND A SOUTH
AFRICA-BASED REPRESENTATIVE OF THE INTERNATIONAL
REPUBLICAN INSTITUTE OBSERVED THE BY-ELECTION ON
NOVEMBER 25 AND 26. CANDIDATES FROM THREE PARTIES RAN
FOR THE VACANT SEAT, BUT THE RACE REALLY BOILED DOWN TO
A CONTEST BETWEEN THE ZANU-PF CANDIDATE AND THE MDC
CANDIDATE. THERE WERE ALLEGATIONS THAT THE ZDF HAD SENT
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PAGE 04 HARARE 06658 01 OF 02 282215Z
SOLDIERS TO CAMPAIGN FOR MUTINHIRI, AND THAT THE RULING
PARTY BROUGHT IN SUPPORTERS FROM NEIGHBORING AREAS TO
CAMPAIGN AND POSSIBLY EVEN VOTE ILLEGALLY FOR HIM.
THERE WERE ALSO ALLEGATIONS THAT THE GOVERNMENT OF
ZIMBABWE'S (GOZ) MINISTRY OF YOUTH DEVELOPMENT, GENDER
AND EMPLOYMENT CREATION HAD BOUGHT THE VOTES OF YOUTH
AND OTHER VOTERS IN THE DISTRICT.


4. (C) THE MDC HAS REPORTED THAT THERE WAS A CONCERTED
CAMPAIGN OF INTIMIDATION IN THE WEEKS PRECEDING THE BY-
ELECTION. THIS ALLEGEDLY INCLUDED MILITARY AND POLICE
PERSONNEL GOING FROM HOUSE TO HOUSE AT NIGHT
INTIMIDATING THE OCCUPANTS. WAR VETERANS WERE ALSO OUT
IN FORCE, AND WERE STILL SEEN BY US CAMPED OUT IN THE
DISTRICT ON NOVEMBER 25 AND 26. WAR VETS ALLEGEDLY
ATTACKED AND BROKE THE LEGS OF TWO MDC SUPPORTERS THE
DAY BEFORE THE ELECTIONS. ON NOVEMBER 25, CHENJERAI
"HITLER" HUNZVI ALLEGEDLY HELD A PISTOL TO THE HEAD OF
AN MDC POLL WATCHER, AND THEN CHASED THE POLL WATCHER
AND ANOTHER MDC SUPPORTER AWAY FROM THE POLLING STATION,
ACCORDING TO A EUROPEAN UNION ELECTION OBSERVER. OUR
SOURCE TOLD US THAT A ZIMBABWEAN WHO OBSERVED THIS
INCIDENT SAID TO HUNZVI "ARE WE GOING TO DO THIS IN A
CIVILIZED MANNER?", TO WHICH HUNZVI ANGRILY REPLIED "I
AM NOT A CIVILIZED PERSON." BOTH HUNZVI AND RETIRED
ZIMBABWE DEFENSE FORCES GENERAL SOLOMON MUJURU WERE SEEN
BY THE MISSION OBSERVERS IN THE DISTRICT ON NOVEMBER 25.

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CONFIDENTIAL PTQ9047

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ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 DINT-00 DODE-00
DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00
VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 LAB-01 L-00
VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00
PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 STR-00 TRSE-00
USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-02 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00
SAS-00 /011W
-------------- A4EBE6 282340Z /38
R 281458Z NOV 00
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 7725
INFO NSC WASHDC
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 006658

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH
LONDON FOR CGURNEY
PARIS FOR BWILLIAMS
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER
PASS USAID FOR AFR/SD - DWELLER, AND AFR/SA - CPALMA,

NNEWMAN

PASS USTR - ROSA WHITAKER
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 06658 02 OF 02 282215Z

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/28/10
TAGS: PGOV PINR PHUM ZI
SUBJECT: ZANU-PF WINS MARONDERA WEST BY-ELECTION; LOW
TURNOUT LIKELY THE RESULT OF PRE-ELECTION INTIMIDATION

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VOTING IN BY-ELECTION IS PEACEFUL
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5. (C) THE VOTING TOOK PLACE IN A PEACEFUL MANNER ON
NOVEMBER 25 AND 26. OUR OBSERVERS DID NOT WITNESS ANY
CLEAR INTIMIDATION OF VOTERS ON THESE TWO DAYS. THEY
WERE NOT ACCREDITED BY THE GOZ, AND THEREFORE OBSERVED
VOTING ON AN UNOFFICIAL BASIS. ON NOVEMBER 25, THEY
ENTERED A NUMBER OF POLLING STATIONS AND WERE ABLE TO
VERIFY THAT POLL WATCHERS FOR BOTH ZANU-PF AND THE MDC
WERE PRESENT AT ALL STATIONS VISITED. POLICE AND
ELECTION OFFICIALS WERE GENERALLY FRIENDLY WHEN
APPROACHED. THE OBSERVERS ALSO VISITED THE CENTRAL
COMMAND STATION FOR THE ELECTION, AND WERE INTRODUCED TO
THE HEAD ELECTION OFFICIAL, WHO STATED THAT HE WAS FROM
THE MINISTRY OF INFORMATION. (NOTE: THE GOZ MINISTRY OF
INFORMATION NO LONGER EXISTS, AS IT WAS RECENTLY FOLDED
INTO THE PRESIDENT'S OFFICE. END NOTE.) MISSION
OBSERVERS HAD TO SIGN THEIR NAMES ON VISITORS' ROLLS AT
TWO OF THE POLLING STATIONS VISITED, AND POLL OFFICIALS
NOTED THAT THE PERSONNEL WERE FROM THE U.S. EMBASSY. ON
NOVEMBER 26, THE ATTITUDE AND RECEPTION AT THE POLLING
STATIONS TOWARD THE AMERICAN OBSERVERS WAS NOTABLY
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PAGE 03 HARARE 06658 02 OF 02 282215Z
FROSTIER. IT APPEARED THAT POLLING OFFICIALS AND
POLICEMEN HAD RECEIVED WORD NOT TO INTERACT OR TALK WITH
THE OBSERVERS.

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LOW TURNOUT FOR THE BY-ELECTION
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6. (C) THE BY-ELECTION HAD BEEN TOUTED AS A TEST OF
ZANU-PF'S, AND INDIRECTLY PRESIDENT MUGABE'S, STRENGTH
AND POPULARITY VERSUS THE MDC. THERE WAS AN INTENSE
PRE-ELECTION CAMPAIGN PERIOD MARRED BY VIOLENCE BETWEEN
ZANU-PF AND MDC SUPPORTERS, WHICH CULMINATED IN A
CONFRONTATION THAT RESULTED IN THE DEATH OF A BYSTANDER,
KILLED BY A STRAY BULLET. A PLANNED VISIT TO THE
DISTRICT BY MDC PRESIDENT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI TO ADDRESS A
CAMPAIGN RALLY WAS CANCELLED, BECAUSE OF CONCERN THAT
TSVANGIRAI'S SAFETY COULD NOT BE GUARANTEED AND THAT

SIPDIS
VIOLENCE MIGHT ERUPT. AFTER THIS INTENSE CAMPAIGN, LESS
THAN ONE-THIRD OF THE REGISTERED VOTERS WENT TO THE
POLLS. THE NOVEMBER 28 ISSUE OF "THE HERALD" REPORTED
THAT 12,322 VOTERS OUT OF 37,600 REGISTERED VOTERS, OR
32.88 PERCENT OF THE ELECTORATE, CAST THEIR VOTE. THIS
COMPARES TO 16,947 VOTES CAST IN THE DISTRICT IN THE
JUNE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS.


7. (C) COMMENT: WHILE THE VOTING OCCURRED IN A
RELATIVELY PEACEFUL ENVIRONMENT WITH POLL WATCHERS FROM
BOTH ZANU-PF AND MDC ABLE TO MONITOR THE VOTING, THE
FACT THAT THE BALLOT WAS PRECEDED BY BIASED MEDIA
COVERAGE AND A TWO-WEEK CAMPAIGN OF INTIMIDATION AND
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PAGE 04 HARARE 06658 02 OF 02 282215Z
VIOLENCE CHIEFLY BY ZANU-PF AND ITS SUPPORTERS, STRONGLY
SUGGESTS THIS WAS NOT A FREE AND FAIR ELECTION IN OUR
JUDGEMENT. THE PREVAILING VIEW OF THE MISSION OBSERVERS
WAS THAT THE PRE-ELECTION INTIMIDATION CLEARLY PLAYED A
SIGNIFICANT PART IN REDUCING VOTER TURNOUT. EVEN WITH
THIS PRE-ELECTION INTIMIDATION, AND THE PERSONAL
INVOLVEMENT OF "HITLER" HUNZVI AND SOLOMON MUJURU, THE
ZANU-PF CANDIDATE RECEIVED ALMOST 4,000 FEWER VOTES THAN
HIS PREDECESSOR, WHILE THE MDC CANDIDATE RECEIVED ONLY
200 FEWER VOTES THAN IN LAST JUNE'S PARLIAMENTARY
ELECTIONS. TO US, THIS IS AN INDICATION THAT THE MDC
HAS HELD ONTO ITS CORE SUPPORT UNDER DIFFICULT
CIRCUMSTANCES, WHILE ZANU-PF'S SUPPORT HAS ERODED. END
COMMENT.

MCDONALD

CONFIDENTIAL

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