A ZANU-PF DEPUTY MINISTER AND MP'S INSIDER VIEW

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 006120

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH
LONDON FOR CGURNEY
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS
PASS USAID FOR AFR/SD - DWELLER, AND AFR/SA - CPALMA,
NNEWMAN

NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER

PASS USTR - ROSA WHITAKER

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 06120 01 OF 02 311118Z
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/31/10
TAGS: PGOV PINR ZI ZANU PF
SUBJECT: A ZANU-PF DEPUTY MINISTER AND MP'S INSIDER VIEW
ON THE MUGABE SUCCESSION ISSUE

CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR MCDONALD. REASONS 1.5 (B) AND
(D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: ZANU-PF DEPUTY MINISTER (ENVIRONMENT AND
TOURISM) AND MEMBER OF PARLIAMENT EDWARD CHINDORI-
CHININGA PAID A CALL ON AMBASSADOR MCDONALD ON OCTOBER
30 TO UPDATE HIM ON HIS MINISTRY'S LATEST ACTIVITIES.
CHINDORI-CHININGA, WHO IS PART OF THE YOUNGER GENERATION
OF ZANU-PF POLITICIANS, SHARED HIS INSIDER VIEWS ON THE
MUGABE SUCCESSION ISSUE WITH THE AMBASSADOR. HE STATED
THAT THERE ARE CURRENTLY TWO SIDES TO THE QUESTION OF
MUGABE'S ROLE IN ZANU-PF. ONE SIDE SAYS THE PRESIDENT
MUST RETIRE. ZANU-PF WILL AMEND THE PARTY CONSTITUTION
TO ALLOW MUGABE TO REMAIN AS HEAD OF PARTY, BUT THAT A
NEW CANDIDATE WILL BE FOUND TO RUN FOR PRESIDENT OF
ZIMBABWE IN 2002. THE OTHER SIDE SAYS THAT IT IS
ALREADY TOO LATE TO FIND A NEW CANDIDATE WITH NATIONAL
STATURE TO RUN FOR PRESIDENT OF ZIMBABWE IN 2002, SO
MUGABE WILL HAVE TO BE THE PARTY'S CANDIDATE. ACCORDING
TO THE DEPUTY MINISTER, THE SIDES ARE NOT DIVIDED ALONG
GENERATIONAL LINES, BUT RATHER BASED ON THEIR VIEW OF
HOW ZANU-PF CAN MAINTAIN CONTROL OF THE PRESIDENCY. END
SUMMARY.

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ZANU-PF: A PARTY DIVIDED
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2. (C) AMBASSADOR MCDONALD TOOK ADVANTAGE OF HIS MEETING
WITH CHINDORI-CHININGA, WHICH WAS INITIATED BY THE
DEPUTY MINISTER TO DISCUSS HIS MINSTRY'S ACTIVITIES
(REPORTED IN SEPTEL),TO ASK HIM HIS VIEW OF EVENTS
WITHIN ZANU-PF, AND IN PARTICULAR THE QUESTION OF WHAT
WAS THE INTERNAL DEBATE WITHIN THE PARTY REGARDING THE
QUESTION OF MUGABE'S FUTURE. THE DEPUTY MINISTER IS ONE
OF THE GROUP OF NEW YOUNGER MPS OF ZANU-PF WHO ARE
FORWARD THINKING AND PROFESSIONAL IN THEIR OUTLOOK, AND
WILLING TO EXPOUND ON THIS ISSUE. WHILE NOT TIPPING HIS
HAND, CHINDORI-CHININGA REVEALED THAT THERE ARE TWO
SIDES WITHIN ZANU-PF REGARDING THE ISSUE OF MUGABE AND
HIS POSSIBLE CANDIDACY FOR THE 2002 PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTION. THE TWO SIDES ARE NOT BASED ON A GENERATIONAL
DIVIDE WITHIN THE PARTY, AS WE EXPECTED TO HEAR, BUT
RATHER APPEARED TO BE BASED ON ZANU-PF POLITICIANS'
VIEWS AS TO WHAT CANDIDATE WOULD MORE LIKELY ENSURE THAT
THE PARTY RETAINS CONTROL OF THE PRESIDENCY.

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ONE SIDE: A GRACEFUL RETIREMENT FOR MUGABE
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3. (C) ONE SIDE OF THIS ISSUE BELIEVES THAT IT IS TIME
FOR MUGABE TO RETIRE AND THAT HE SHOULD NOT BE THE
PARTY'S CANDIDATE FOR THE 2002 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS.
IN ORDER TO PROVIDE FOR A FACE SAVING EXIT FOR MUGABE
THEY WOULD HAVE HIM STAY ON AS ZANU-PF'S PRESIDENT, BUT
THE PARTY WOULD PRESENT A NEW CANDIDATE FOR THE 2002
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ZIMBABWE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS. THIS PLAN WOULD
REQUIRE A CHANGE IN THE ZANU-PF PARTY CONSTITUTION SINCE
IT PRESENTLY STATES THAT THE PARTY'S PRESIDENT WILL BE
THE PARTY'S CANDIDATE FOR THE NATION'S PRESIDENCY.
CHINDORI-CHININGA DID NOT APPEAR TO BELIEVE THAT IT
WOULD BE THAT DIFFICULT TO GET THE SUPPORT TO CHANGE THE
PARTY'S CONSTITUTION IN THIS MANNER. THIS PLAN WOULD
ALLOW MUGABE TO REMAIN AN ELDER STATESMAN OF PARTY
POLITICS, WHILE ALLOWING A NEW CANDIDATE WITH GREATER
APPEAL, AND WITHOUT THE NEGATIVE BAGGAGE OF MUGABE, TO
REPRESENT ZANU-PF IN THE 2002 ELECTIONS.

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THE OTHER SIDE: TOO LATE TO CHANGE
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4. (C) THE OTHER SIDE OF THE DEBATE IN ZANU-PF BELIEVES
THAT IT IS TOO LATE TO DUMP MUGABE AS THE PARTY
CANDIDATE FOR THE 2002 ELECTIONS. THIS GROUP BELIEVES
THAT NO ONE IN THE PARTY HAS THE NATIONAL NAME
RECOGNITION OF MUGABE OR THE SUPPORT OF THE DIVERSE
ELEMENTS WITHIN THE PARTY STRUCTURE. THEREFORE, WHAT IS
NEEDED IS FOR THE PARTY TO CLOSE RANKS AND SUPPORT
MUGABE AGGRESSIVELY AS THE PARTY'S CANDIDATE FOR 2002.
THE AMBASSADOR ASKED CHINDORI-CHININGA HOW HE THOUGHT
THIS SIDE OF THE PARTY COULD BELIEVE THAT MUGABE WOULD

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ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 DINT-00 DODE-00
DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EUR-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00
H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01
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-------------- 98CAFD 311136Z /38
P 311116Z OCT 00
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7482
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 006120

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH
LONDON FOR CGURNEY
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS
PASS USAID FOR AFR/SD - DWELLER, AND AFR/SA - CPALMA,
NNEWMAN

NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER

PASS USTR - ROSA WHITAKER

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 06120 02 OF 02 311119Z
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/31/10
TAGS: PGOV PINR ZI ZANU PF
SUBJECT: A ZANU-PF DEPUTY MINISTER AND MP'S INSIDER VIEW
ON THE MUGABE SUCCESSION ISSUE

BE THEIR BEST CANDIDATE WHEN RECENT POLLS INDICATED THAT
THE PROBABLE MDC PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE MORGAN
TSVANGIRAI WOULD TROUNCE MUGABE IN FREE AND FAIR

SIPDIS
ELECTIONS. THE DEPUTY MINISTER JUST SHRUGGED HIS
SHOULDERS IN RESPONSE.

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IDENTIFYING AN ALTERNATIVE TO MUGABE
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5. (C) THE EASE-MUGABE-OUT FACTION WOULD IDENTIFY A NEW
CANDIDATE FOR THE PARTY FOR 2002 BY TURNING TO THE
PROVINCIAL PARTY STRUCTURES AND ASKING THEM TO EACH
SUBMIT A LIST OF WHO THEY WOULD SUPPORT AS A NEW
CANDIDATE. THE PARTY LEADERSHIP WOULD THEN CROSSCHECK
THESE LISTS, AND IDENTIFY THE NAME THAT APPEARED ON THE
MOST PROVINCIAL LISTS. THIS WOULD THEN BE THE PARTY'S
CANDIDATE. THIS CANDIDATE'S BROAD PARTY AND NATIONAL
SUPPORT WOULD BE EVIDENCED BY THE FACT THAT HIS NAME
APPEARED ON THE MAJORITY OF PROVINCIAL PARTY LISTS.
WHEN CHINDORI-CHININGA WAS ASKED WHETHER ZANU-PF WAS
CONSIDERING HAVING A PARTY PRIMARY TO DETERMINE THE
PARTY'S CANDIDATE FOR 2002, AS THEY HAD FOR
PARLIAMENTARY SEATS IN THE 2000 ELECTIONS, HE DIDN'T
HESITATE IN STATING NO.

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AMBASSADOR MCDONALD URGES CONFIDENCE BUILDING
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6. (C) AMBASSADOR MCDONALD TOOK THE OPPORTUNITY OF THE
MEETING WITH THIS YOUNGER UP-AND-COMING MEMBER OF ZANU-
PF TO EXPRESS THE U.S. CONCERN WITH POLITICAL
DEVELOPMENTS IN ZIMBABWE AND TO STATE THAT NOW WAS THE
TIME FOR ZANU-PF MPS AND MDC MPS TO WORK TOGETHER ON
ISSUES OF COMMON NATIONAL INTEREST IN PARLIAMENT IN
ORDER TO INCREASE DIALOGUE AND DECREASE TENSIONS. THE
AMBASSADOR POINTED OUT THAT THE SITUATION IN ZIMBABWE
WAS EVEN MORE TENSE AFTER THE RECENT FOOD RIOTS, AND
THAT THIS WAS THE IMAGE THAT THE WORLD WAS GETTING OF
ZIMBABWE, A NATION DESCENDING INTO CHAOS AND VIOLENCE.
THE DEPUTY MINISTER STATED THAT HE SHARED THE
AMBASSADOR'S CONCERN AND THAT HE AND OTHER ZANU-PF MPS
WERE TRYING TO BUILD BRIDGES TO MPS OF THE MDC, BOTH
WITHIN THE PARLIAMENTARY SETTING, AND IN OTHER SETTINGS.
THE AMBASSADOR POINTED OUT TO CHINDORI-CHININGA THAT THE
PORTFOLIO OF HIS MINISTRY, ENVIRONMENT AND TOURISM, WAS
AN AREA THAT ESPECIALLY LENT ITSELF TO BIPARTISANSHIP,
AND HE URGED THE DEPUTY MINISTER TO WORK IN THAT
DIRECTION.


7. (C) COMMENT: WE SUSPECT THAT CHINDORI-CHININGA MAY BE
DISSEMBLING ON THE GENERATIONAL DIVIDE THAT EXISTS IN
THE PARTY AND DOWN PLAYING ITS AMBITION TO WREST CONTROL
OF THE REINS OF POWER FROM THE OLD GUARD. AT THE MOMENT
THERE IS LITTLE HEAD ROOM FOR THIS GROUP. END COMMENT.

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MCDONALD

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