TSVANGIRAI QUESTIONED AND RELEASED BY POLICE

C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 005728

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH
LONDON FOR GURNEY
PARIS FOR WILLIAMS

E.O. 12958: DECL. 10/11/10
TAGS: PHUM PGOV PREL ZI
SUBJECT: TSVANGIRAI QUESTIONED AND RELEASED BY POLICE

REF: A) HARARE 5681 B) HARARE 5585

CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES EARL IRVING. REASONS: 1.5
(B) AND (D).
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 05728 111814Z


1. (U) AT THE REQUEST OF POLICE, MDC PRESIDENT MORGAN
TSVANGIRAI SPENT TWO HOURS ON OCTOBER 10 AT THE CRIMINAL

SIPDIS
INVESTIGATIONS DIVISION (CID) ANSWERING QUESTIONS IN
CONNECTION WITH HIS STATEMENT AT A POLITICAL RALLY ON
SEPTEMBER 30. AS REPORTED REF B, TSVANGIRAI SAID AT THE
RALLY THAT MUGABE "SHOULD GO PEACEFULLY. IF NOT, WE WILL
REMOVE YOU VIOLENTLY." IN SEVERAL SUBSEQUENT PUBLIC
APPEARANCES, TSVANGIRAI SAID HE HAD MEANT THAT, IF THE
ZIMBABWEAN PRESIDENT DOES NOT CHOOSE TO GO PEACEFULLY, THE
PUBLIC, ANGRY AND FRUSTRATED BY THE DETERIORATION OF THE
ECONOMY AND BY THE GOVERNMENT'S FAILURE TO ENSURE THE RULE
OF LAW, WILL FORCE HIM TO GO.


2. (U) IN A PRESS CONFERENCE AFTER HIS QUESTIONING,
TSVANGIRAI SAID POLICE HAD TREATED HIM WELL. THEY HAD

SIPDIS
TAKEN HIS FINGERPRINTS AND INFORMED HIM OF FIVE POSSIBLE
CHARGES THAT MIGHT BE BROUGHT AGAINST HIM. TSVANGIRAI
EXPECTED THE POLICE WOULD SOON PRESENT ITS EVIDENCE TO THE
ATTORNEY-GENERAL'S OFFICE, WHICH WOULD DECIDE WHETHER TO
PROCEED WITH PROSECUTION.


3. (C) POLOFF SPOKE ON OCTOBER 11 WITH GANDI MUDZINGWA,
TSVANGIRAI'S CLOSE AIDE WHO ACCOMPANIED THE MDC PRESIDENT

SIPDIS
TO CID HEADQUARTERS. MUDZINGWA SAID THE FIVE POTENTIAL
CHARGES MENTIONED BY POLICE RELATED TO CONDUCT INTENDED TO
BRING THE NAME OF THE PRESIDENT INTO DISREPUTE OR LIKELY TO
INCITE VIOLENCE OR HOSTILITY AGAINST THE PRESIDENT.
ACCORDING TO MUDZINGWA, THE POLICE WERE NOT SURE WHICH
CHARGES WERE MOST RELEVANT, SO THEY WERE CASTING A WIDE
NET. IN THE MEANTIME, TSVANGIRAI HAS NOT BEEN FORMALLY
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 03 HARARE 05728 111814Z
CHARGED AND IS CIRCULATING FREELY. ASKED WHETHER HE
THOUGHT THE ATTORNEY-GENERAL WOULD DECIDE TO PROSECUTE,
MUDZINGWA SAID THE GOZ IS INCREASINGLY DESPERATE, AND HE
WAS RELUCTANT TO PREDICT WHAT STEPS PEOPLE IN SUCH A STATE
MIGHT TAKE. HE EXPRESSED CONFIDENCE, THOUGH, THAT MDC
LAWYERS WOULD EASILY BE ABLE TO REFUTE THE CHARGES IN
COURT.

COMMENT
--------------


4. (C) ALTHOUGH TSVANGIRAI HAS BEEN ROUNDLY CRITICIZED --
AND APPROPRIATELY SO -- BY OBSERVERS OF ALL POLITICAL
STRIPES FOR HIS CARELESS REMARK ON SEPTEMBER 30, HE AND
OTHER MDC OFFICIALS HAVE MADE IT CLEAR THAT THE OPPOSITION
PARTY DOES NOT ADVOCATE THE VIOLENT OVERTHROW OF PRESIDENT
MUGABE. WE THINK TSVANGIRAI WAS SURPRISED -- AND CHASTENED
-- BY THE REACTION TO HIS WORDS AND WILL BE MORE CAREFUL IN
THE FUTURE ABOUT WHAT HE SAYS IN PUBLIC. WE CONTINUE TO
BELIEVE THAT THE MDC REMAINS A PARTY COMMITTED TO ACHIEVING
ITS POLITICAL OBJECTIVES USING PEACEFUL MEANS.


5. (C) THE BIG QUESTION NOW IS HOW THE GOVERNMENT PLANS TO
PROCEED. THE GOZ MUST BE VERY CAREFUL, AS TSVANGIRAI'S
ARREST COULD TRIGGER WIDESPREAD ANGER AND PUBLIC
DEMONSTRATIONS WHICH MIGHT PROVE DIFFICULT TO CONTROL. WE
SUSPECT THAT THE PUBLIC REACTION IN THE FRY AFTER PRESIDENT
MILOSEVIC'S RECENT ELECTORAL DEFEAT LIKELY IS A POWERFUL
IMAGE IN THE MINDS OF PRESIDENT MUGABE AND OTHER SENIOR GOZ
OFFICIALS. AS MUDZINGWA PUT IT TO US, THE GOZ MADE SO MUCH
NOISE ABOUT TSVANGIRAI'S COMMENTS THAT IT HAD AT LEAST TO
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 04 HARARE 05728 111814Z
APPEAR TO BRING HIM TO TASK. THE QUESTIONING BY POLICE,
WHICH OVER THE OCTOBER 7-8 WEEKEND HAD BEEN MANEUVERING
ITSELF INTO A LOSE-LOSE SITUATION THANKS TO ITS SPOKESMAN'S
TUB THUMPING ABOUT RUNNING IN TSVANGIRAI, COULD ALLOW THE
GOVERNMENT TO SAVE FACE WITHOUT HAVING TO COPE WITH THE
VOLATILE CONSEQUENCES OF ARRESTING HIM.

IRVING

CONFIDENTIAL

>