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Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
00HARARE5352
2000-09-22 11:33:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Harare
Cable title:  

ZANU-PF MODERATE WARNS OF CONSEQUENCES IF

Tags:  PGOV PREL PINR ZI ZANU PF 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

221133Z Sep 00


                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ5848

PAGE 01        HARARE  05352  01 OF 02  221133Z 
ACTION AF-00    

INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    ACQ-00   CIAE-00  DINT-00  DODE-00  DOTE-00  
      SRPP-00  DS-00    EB-00    EUR-00   FAAE-00  FBIE-00  VC-00    
      H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   L-00     VCE-00   AC-01    NSAE-00  
      OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     
      SP-00    SSO-00   TRSE-00  USIE-00  PMB-00   DSCC-00  DRL-02   
      G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00     /006W
                  ------------------88883A  221133Z /38    
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7172
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA
						C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 005352 

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS
ADDIS ABABA FOR LUKASAVICH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/22/05
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR ZI ZANU PF
SUBJECT: ZANU-PF MODERATE WARNS OF CONSEQUENCES IF
ZIMBABWE DEMOCRACY ACT PASSES


CLASSIFIED BY DCM EARL IRVING, REASON 1.5 (B), (D)
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 05352 01 OF 02 221133Z

SUMMARY
-------



1. (C) SUMMARY: ON SEPTEMBER 21, DCM AND POLOFF CALLED
ON NEWLY APPOINTED DEPUTY MINISTER FOR EDUCATION,
SPORTS, AND CULTURE AENEAS CHIGWEDERE. THE DEPUTY
MINISTER, A RELIABLE EMBASSY INTERLOCUTOR IN HIS EARLIER
POSITIONS, WAS CHARACTERISTICALLY FRANK IN HIS
DISCUSSION OF ZANU-PF POLITICS AND HIS WARNING OF DIRE
CONSEQUENCES FOR ZIMBABWE IF THE U.S. CONGRESS PASSES
THE ZIMBABWE DEMOCRACY ACT (ZDA). WHILE RECOGNIZING THE
GOVERNMENT'S FAILINGS SINCE INDEPENDENCE, AND EVEN
CALLING MUGABE A LIABILITY, CHIGWEDERE ARGUED THAT
PASSAGE OF THE ZDA WOULD ONLY ACCELERATE CHAOS IN
ZIMBABWE. ALTHOUGH WE SEE CHIGWEDERE AS A REALIST,
ZIMBABWE HAS MUCH FARTHER TO FALL BEFORE HIS WORST CASE
SCENARIO IS REALIZED. END SUMMARY.



2. (C) ON SEPTEMBER 21, DCM AND POLOFF CALLED ON NEWLY
APPOINTED DEPUTY MINISTER FOR EDUCATION, SPORTS, AND
CULTURE AENEAS CHIGWEDERE. CHIGWEDERE, A SECOND-TERM
MEMBER OF PARLIAMENT, HAS BEEN A RELIABLE AND UNUSUALLY
FRANK INTERLOCUTOR FOR THE EMBASSY. DCM CONGRATULATED
CHIGWEDERE ON HIS APPOINTMENT, AND THE DEPUTY MINISTER
POINTED OUT THAT THE MINISTRY HAS AN ALL NEW LEADERSHIP,
INCLUDING A NEW MINISTER AND PERMANENT SECRETARY.
CHIGWEDERE WENT ON TO SAY BLUNTLY THAT PRESIDENT MUGABE
HAD APPOINTED NEW BLOOD INTO THE MINISTRY TO IMPLEMENT
REFORM, SINCE THE OLD LEADERSHIP WOULD HAVE JUST SLOWED
THINGS DOWN.
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 03 HARARE 05352 01 OF 02 221133Z

ZDA TO UNLEASH MILITARY RESPONSE?


--------------------------





3. (C) THE DEPUTY MINISTER QUICKLY TURNED TO THE
ZIMBABWE DEMOCRACY ACT (ZDA) CURRENTLY BEFORE THE U.S.
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES. (NOTE: THE ZDA, AS WRITTEN,
WOULD END ALL BILATERAL ASSISTANCE TO THE GOZ. HOWEVER,
NEARLY ALL U.S. ASSISTANCE TO ZIMBABWE IS DISBURSED
THROUGH NGOS AND WOULD BE EXEMPT. END NOTE.) DCM
EXPLAINED THAT WE CANNOT PREDICT IF THE ZDA WILL PASS OR
NOT. THE EXECUTIVE DOES NOT HAVE THE POWER TO TURN OFF
THE BILL, BUT IF IT IS NOT ACTED UPON BEFORE CONGRESS IS
DUE TO ADJOURN ON OR ABOUT OCTOBER 6, THE ZDA WILL DIE
IN COMMITTEE.



4. (C) CHIGWEDERE PREDICTED THAT IF THE ZDA DOES PASS,
IT WILL LEAD TO AN ARMY TAKEOVER. WHEN ASKED TO EXPLAIN
HOW THIS MIGHT HAPPEN, CHIGWEDERE SAID THE ZDA WOULD
ACCELERATE ZIMBABWE'S ECONOMIC DECLINE AND LEAD TO
UNREST THAT WOULD FORCE THE ARMY TO INTERVENE.
ZIMBABWEAN URBANITES WOULD NOT "LIFT A FINGER" TO OPPOSE
THE MILITARY BECAUSE OF THE MEMORY OF THE RECENT
ELECTIONS AND THE MATABELELAND MASSACRES OF THE 1980S,
AND ZIMBABWE WOULD BE STUCK WITH A MILITARY GOVERNMENT
FOR THREE TO FIVE YEARS. THERE IS NO DOUBT OF THE
GOVERNMENT'S FAILURES SINCE INDEPENDENCE, CHIGWEDERE
OPINED, BUT THE MILITARY, POLICE, AND WAR VETERANS WOULD
NEVER PERMIT A GOVERNMENT THAT WAS NOT SYMPATHETIC TO
THEIR CAUSE. CHIGWEDERE ADDED THAT THE MILITARY WOULD
NEVER SUPPORT TSVANGIRAI AS PRESIDENT SHOULD HE COME TO
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 04 HARARE 05352 01 OF 02 221133Z
POWER IN SOME KIND OF POPULAR REVOLUTION, BUT WAS MORE
VAGUE WHEN ASKED IF THE MILITARY WOULD SUPPORT A
LEGITIMATELY ELECTED TSVANGIRAI.

NEW DEAL ON LAND?


--------------------------





5. (C) ON THE LAND ISSUE, CHIGWEDERE REPORTED THAT THE
GOZ IS NEGOTIATING WITH THE COMMERCIAL FARMERS' UNION
(CFU) THROUGH BACK CHANNELS TO OBTAIN SEVERAL HUNDRED
FARMS AND TO PAY FOR THEM THROUGH A TRUST FUND. THE
DEPUTY MINISTER SAID THE GOVERNMENT IS ALSO IN TOUCH
WITH THE BRITISH ON THIS ISSUE, AND CLAIMED THEY SUPPORT
THE FACE-SAVING IDEA OF A DONOR-FUNDED TRUST FUND TO
BREAK THE LAND REFORM IMPASSE. ZIMBABWE AND THE U.K.
HAVE BEEN SO AT ODDS OVER LAND REFORM THAT NEITHER IS
PUBLICLY WILLING TO SWALLOW THEIR PRIDE. CHIGWEDERE
OFFERED THAT IT IS NOT GOVERNMENT POLICY TO EXPEL ALL
WHITE FARMERS FROM THEIR LAND--THE MOST PRODUCTIVE FARMS
IN MASHONALAND WOULD BE EXEMPTED. ON THE OTHER HAND, IT
IS GOVERNMENT POLICY, HE STATED BLUNTLY, TO HARASS
FARMERS INTO SURRENDERING LARGE TRACTS OF LAND BORDERING
COMMUNAL AREAS BY PERMITTING COMMUNAL FARMERS TO CUT
DOWN TREES, STEAL WIRE, OR OCCUPY THE LAND OUTRIGHT.

CONFIDENTIAL

CONFIDENTIAL PTQ5849

PAGE 01 HARARE 05352 02 OF 02 221133Z
ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 DINT-00 DODE-00 DOTE-00
SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00
H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00
OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00
SP-00 IRM-00 SSO-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00
DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /006W


--------------------------

888844 221133Z /38
O 221133Z SEP 00
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7173
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 005352

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS
ADDIS ABABA FOR LUKASAVICH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/22/05
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR ZI ZANU PF
SUBJECT: ZANU-PF MODERATE WARNS OF CONSEQUENCES IF
ZIMBABWE DEMOCRACY ACT PASSES

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 05352 02 OF 02 221133Z
MUGABE SEEN AS LIABILITY IN ZANU-PF


--------------------------





6. (C) CHIGWEDERE PROVIDED AN UNUSUALLY FRANK AND, IN
OUR JUDGMENT, ACCURATE DESCRIPTION OF THE CURRENT STATE
OF ZANU-PF POLITICS. HE FLAT-OUT STATED THAT MUGABE HAS
BECOME A LIABILITY FOR THE PARTY, AND THE SOONER HE
RETIRES, THE BETTER. IT WOULD BE VERY DIFFICULT FOR HIM
TO DO SO, HOWEVER, BECAUSE IT IS NOT IN THE AFRICAN
TRADITION FOR CHIEFS TO SIMPLY STEP ASIDE AND BECOME
"ORDINARY MEN." ONLY GOD CAN RETIRE A CHIEF, CHIGWEDERE
ADDED. HOWEVER, MUGABE HAS BEEN MISLED BY HIS CIRCLE OF
SYCOPHANTS, WHO, AS IN ANOTHER AFRICAN TRADITION, ONLY
WISH TO PLEASE THEIR CHIEF AND ARE LOATH TO SAY OR DO
ANYTHING THAT WOULD UPSET HIM. THIS HAS LED TO AN IVORY
TOWER SYNDROME IN WHICH MUGABE DOES NOT FULLY UNDERSTAND
THE DEPTH OF DISCONTENT IN THE COUNTRY. WHEN ASKED IF
THERE IS ANYONE WHO COULD SUCCEED MUGABE, THE DEPUTY
MINISTER SAID ONLY FINANCE MINISTER MAKONI WOULD COME
CLOSE TO FILLING HIS SHOES, AS MUGABE'S INNER CIRCLE HAD
BEEN REJECTED BY THE PEOPLE IN THE JUNE 24-25 ELECTION.
MAKONI, HOWEVER, DOES NOT HAVE A BROAD BASE OF SUPPORT
SINCE MOST OF THE YOUNGER GENERATIONS HAVE NOT BEEN
PERMITTED TO ADVANCE IN THE PARTY. HE DID NOT SEE ANY
GOOD PROSPECTS FOR YOUNG BLOOD TO FILTER UP THE PARTY
HIERARCHY SO LONG AS THE OLD GUARD REMAIN FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED.



7. (C) COMMENT: A COMMITTED AFRICANIST, CHIGWEDERE IS,
IN ZANU-PF TERMS, SOMEONE WE WOULD DESCRIBE AS A
MODERATE. UNLIKE MOST OF MUGABE'S CABINET, HE IS KNOWN
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 03 HARARE 05352 02 OF 02 221133Z
FOR TELLING IT LIKE IT IS, BUT HIS PREDICTION THAT A
MILITARY TAKEOVER IS IN THE WINGS IF THE ZDA PASSES IS
FARFETCHED. HIS ARGUMENT CONTAINED FEW SPECIFICS, BUT
PROBABLY REFLECTS A GROWING REALIZATION IN ZANU-PF THAT
THE GOZ IS INCREASINGLY ISOLATED, BOTH AT HOME AND
ABROAD. WHAT LITTLE POPULAR SUPPORT ZANU-PF'S
LEADERSHIP HAS LEFT IS STEADILY ERODING, INSIDE AND
OUTSIDE THE PARTY. CHIGWEDERE'S APPEAL TO HALT PASSAGE
OF THE ZDA BASED ON AN IMMINENT MILITARY COUP TRUMPETS
ZANU-PF'S GROWING DESPERATION. IT IS VERY UNLIKELY THAT
PASSAGE OF THE ZDA WOULD HAVE ANY PRACTICAL EFFECT ON
ZIMBABWE'S ECONOMY, BUT IT COULD BECOME A CONVENIENT
SCAPEGOAT FOR THE GOZ'S OWN GROSS MISMANAGEMENT OF THE
ECONOMY. IT IS NOT INCONCEIVABLE THAT MUGABE WOULD
PREFER TO HAVE THE ACT BECOME LAW SO HE COULD ADD THE
U.S. TO HIS LONG LIST OF EXCUSES FOR HIS OWN
GOVERNMENT'S POOR PERFORMANCE. END COMMENT.

MCDONALD

CONFIDENTIAL

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