ZIMBABWE'S COMMERCIAL FARMERS UNION MAKES A

C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 004479

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF, AF/S, AF/EPS
STATE PASS USAID FOR AFR/SA RCOHEN
STATE PASS USTR/RWHITTAKER
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH
LONDON FOR CGURNEY
PARIS FOR BWILLIAMS
PRETORIA FOR AG ATTACHE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/14/05
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PAGE 02 HARARE 04479 141515Z
TAGS: EAGR ECON PGOV ZI
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE'S COMMERCIAL FARMERS UNION MAKES A
COUNTEROFFER TO THE GOVERNMENT'S 3,000 FARMS PROGRAM


CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR MCDONALD, REASON 1.5 (B),
(D)

REFS: A) HARARE 4362, B) HARARE 4297


1. (C) ON AUGUST 14 THE COMMERCIAL FARMERS UNION
(CFU) DELIVERED A PROPOSAL TO VICE PRESIDENT MSIKA
(IN HIS CAPACITY AS CHAIRMAN OF THE ZIMBABWE NATIONAL
LAND ACQUISITION COMMITTEE),LAYING OUT A
COUNTEROFFER TO THE GOVERNMENT'S ANNOUNCED PLANS TO
GAZETTE OVER 3000 FARMS FOR IMMEDIATE SEIZURE AND
RESETTLEMENT (REF A). THIS FOLLOWS THE ANNOUNCEMENT
LAST WEEK ON AUGUST 10 THAT IT WAS WITHDRAWING ITS
LEGAL ACTION AGAINST PRESIDENT MUGABE, POLICE
COMMISSIONER CHIHURI, AND WAR VETERANS LEADER HUNZVI
OVER THE FARM ACQUISITIONS AND OCCUPATIONS, AND THE
DISINTEGRATION OF THE RULE OF LAW. IN ADDITION,
ACCORDING TO WILLIAM HUGHES, VICE PRESIDENT FOR
REGIONS AT CFU, THE PETITION THE UNION HAD SENT TO
PRESIDENT MUGABE ASKING FOR HIS DIRECT INTERVENTION
TO STOP THE INVASIONS "HAS FALLEN AWAY." IN A PRESS
ANNOUNCEMENT, THE CFU'S PRESIDENT TIM HENWOOD STATED
THAT THE MOVES WOULD ENABLE "MORE MEANINGFUL DIALOGUE
BETWEEN THE CFU AND THE GOVERNMENT TO RESOLVE THE
ONGOING FARM CRISIS." THE CFU'S ACTIONS ON THE 10TH
WERE CLEARLY INTENDED TO SET THE STAGE FOR THE CFU'S
LATEST REBUTTAL OFFER TO THE GOZ.
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2. (C) IN THE PROPOSAL, THE CFU OFFERS THE GOZ 200
FARMS NOW (ON A WILLING SELLER, COMMERCIAL VALUE
BASIS),ANOTHER 400 BY APRIL 30, 2001, AND 400 MORE
ANNUALLY FOR THE NEXT 4 YEARS (A TOTAL OF 2,200
FARMS). THE CFU PROPOSAL IS CONTINGENT UPON A
COMPLETE AND IMMEDIATE STOPPAGE OF THE INVASIONS AND
LAWLESSNESS, AND THE REMOVAL OF THE WAR VETERANS FROM
THE FARMS THEY CURRENTLY OCCUPY, HUGHES TOLD US. IN
ADDITION HE FLATLY DENIED (CONTRARY TO RUMORS WE HAD
HEARD OVER THE WEEKEND) THAT A DEADLINE HAD BEEN SET
BY THE CFU FOR THE WAR VETS REMOVAL, OR THAT THE
UNION WOULD BACK A NATIONWIDE BOYCOTT OF TOBACCO
PLANTING IF THE LAWLESSNESS CONTINUES.


3. (C) COMMENT: BECAUSE THE CFU PROPOSAL CONTAINS NO
RADICAL NEW OFFERS, NOR ANY QUICK-TO-EXECUTE
SOLUTIONS THAT WOULD YIELD POLITICAL CAPITAL FOR THE
PRESIDENT, WE DOUBT THAT THIS LATEST PACKAGE WILL BE
EMBRACED BY EITHER MUGABE OR THE GOZ. IN ADDITION,
WE ARE NOT SURE THAT THE FARM UNION'S MEMBERSHIP
WOULD ENDORSE THE OFFER IF A REFERNDUM OR VOTE WAS
HELD TODAY ON THE MATTER. THIS IS BECAUSE WE ARE
BEGINNING TO SEE AND SENSE THAT THE AVERAGE
COMMERCIAL FARMER IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
DISILLUSIONED WITH NOT ONLY HIS OWN PLIGHT, BUT ALSO
THE LACK OF RESULTS COMING FROM CFU'S NEGOTIATIONS
WITH THE GOVERNMENT SINCE THE INVASIONS BEGAN IN LATE
FEBRUARY. BEING TOLD TO "KEEP COOL" FOR A FEW MONTHS
IS ONE THING, BUT BEING TOLD THIS FOR GOING ON SIX
MONTHS IS ANOTHER. AT THE MOMENT WE PREDICT THAT THE
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GOZ'S LAND JUGGERNAUT WILL ROLL ON IN ITS HAPHAZARD
MANNER, CRUSHING ALL IN ITS PATH REGARDLESS OF
PROTESTS, LOUD OR SOFT, COMING FROM WITHIN THE
COUNTRY OR ABROAD. MUGABE, WITH HIS EYES ON THE 2002
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WILL GO IT ALONE AND CONTINUE
TO USE THE LAND PROBLEM AS A BLATANT POLITICAL TOOL
EVEN THOUGH IT WAS A FAILED STRATEGY IN THE JUNE
PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS. END COMMENT.

MCDONALD

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