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Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
00HARARE4062
2000-07-24 15:17:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Harare
Cable title:  

S/E WOLPE'S DISCUSSION WITH MNANGAGWA ON DRC

Tags:  PREL PGOV CG ZI 
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241517Z Jul 00


                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ1230

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                  ------------------71C03B  241524Z /49    
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6678
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
RWANDA COLLECTIVE
						C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 004062 

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR A/S RICE AND PDAS POWELL

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH

USUN FOR HOLBROOKE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/01/10
TAGS: PREL PGOV CG ZI
SUBJECT: S/E WOLPE'S DISCUSSION WITH MNANGAGWA ON DRC


CLASSIFIED BY SPECIAL ENVOY HOWARD WOLPE.
REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND (D).
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PAGE 02 HARARE 04062 01 OF 03 241524Z



1. (C) SUMMARY: IN A JULY 17 MEETING WITH EMMERSON
MNANGAGWA, MUGABE'S CONFIDANTE IN CHARGE OF SENSITIVE
MISSIONS RELATING TO THE CONGO, GREAT LAKES SPECIAL
ENVOY HOWARD WOLPE EXPRESSED CONCERN ABOUT DRC PRESIDENT
KABILA'S PUSH FOR THE REMOVAL OF SIR KETUMILE MASIRE AS
FACILITATOR IN THE CONGOLESE CONFLICT. MNANGAGWA
INDICATED THAT PRESIDENT MUGABE BELIEVES KABILA IS
INTRACTABLE ON THE ISSUE. HOWEVER, HE ACCEPTED WOLPE'S
ARGUMENT THAT KABILA'S OBJECTIONS TO MASIRE ARE A FIG
LEAF FOR HIS DESIRE TO SEE THE INTER-CONGOLESE DIALOGUE
FAIL, AND APPEARED TO AGREE WITH WOLPE'S POINT THAT THE
REMOVAL OF MASIRE WOULD KILL THE LUSAKA PROCESS.
MNANGAGWA TOLD WOLPE THAT THE GOZ IS AS COMMITTED AS
EVER TO A WITHDRAWAL FROM THE DRC. DESPITE THE GOZ'S
OFFICIAL POSITION THAT ZIMBABWEAN TROOPS WILL RETREAT
WHEN SECURITY CONDITIONS PERMIT, HE SAID, THEIR "REAL"
POSITION IS THAT THEY WILL PULL OUT AS SOON AS MONUC IS
DEPLOYED. END SUMMARY.



2. (C) GREAT LAKES SPECIAL ENVOY HOWARD WOLPE MET JULY
17 WITH EMMERSON MNANGAGWA, A CLOSE CONFIDANTE OF
PRESIDENT MUGABE WHO HAD JUST COMPLETED HIS TENURE AS
MINISTER OF JUSTICE AND WAS SLATED TO BECOME SPEAKER OF
THE PARLIAMENT THE FOLLOWING DAY. MNANGAGWA IS WELL-
BRIEFED ON ISSUES PERTAINING TO THE CONGO AS MUGABE USES
HIM TO CONDUCT SENSITIVE MISSIONS THERE. WOLPE WAS
ACCOMPANIED BY SPECIAL ADVISOR TO A/S RICE PRENDERGAST
AND POLOFF. MNANGAGWA TOLD WOLPE THAT HE HAD NOT BEEN
PRESENT AT THE PREVIOUS WEEK'S MEETING BETWEEN PRESIDENT
MUGABE AND PRESIDENT KABILA IN LUBUMBASHI, BUT HE
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PAGE 03 HARARE 04062 01 OF 03 241524Z
UNDERSTOOD THAT THEY HAD DISCUSSED TWO MAIN ISSUES:
MASIRE'S TENURE AS FACILITATOR AND THE DEPLOYMENT OF UN
TROOPS.

SHORING UP SUPPORT FOR MASIRE


--------------------------





3. (C) WITH REGARD TO MASIRE, MNANGAGWA TOLD WOLPE
KABILA HAD APPEARED INTRACTABLE AT LUBUMBASHI IN HIS
OBJECTIONS TO MASIRE'S CONTINUED ROLE AS NATIONAL
DIALOGUE FACILITATOR AND HAD PRESSED FOR THE OAU TO
APPOINT ANOTHER FACILITATOR. MUGABE, MNANGAGWA
CONTINUED, HAD WARNED KABILA DURING THE JUNE 25 MINI-
SUMMIT IN HARARE THAT HIS OBJECTIONS TO MASIRE DID NOT
CONSTITUTE SUFFICIENT GROUNDS FOR REMOVING HIM. BY
PRESSING FOR MASIRE'S REMOVAL, MUGABE TOLD KABILA, HE
WAS CREATING A PERCEPTION THAT HE WAS MOVING AGAINST THE
LUSAKA ACCORDS. KABILA RESPONDED TO MUGABE THAT HE
STILL RESPECTED AND HONORED THE LUSAKA ACCORD, BUT HIS
POSITION, SUPPORTED BY HIS CABINET, IS THAT MASIRE
CANNOT CONTINUE AS FACILITATOR. MUGABE HIMSELF,
MNANGAGWA TOLD WOLPE, HAS FOUND NO FAULT WITH THE WAY
MASIRE HAS HANDLED HIS DUTIES.



4. (C) WOLPE TOLD MNANGAGWA THAT, WHILE NO ONE CLAIMED
MASIRE HAD CARRIED OUT HIS DIFFICULT JOB FLAWLESSLY,
MANY OF KABILA'S ALLEGATIONS ABOUT MASIRE -- FOR
EXAMPLE, THAT HE HAD NEGLECTED TO MEET WITH KABILA WHILE
IN THE CONGO -- WERE FACTUALLY INCORRECT. NOTHING COULD
BE MORE DAMAGING TO THE REGION, HE STATED, THAN
ACQUIESCING TO KABILA'S REJECTION OF MASIRE, BECAUSE
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PAGE 04 HARARE 04062 01 OF 03 241524Z
"YOU KNOW AND I KNOW THAT THE REAL ISSUE FOR KABILA IS
NOT MASIRE." RATHER, IT IS HIS NERVOUSNESS ABOUT THE
INTER-CONGOLESE DIALOGUE. ACQUIESCING TO KABILA ON
MASIRE WOULD SEND A SIGNAL TO THE CONGOLESE THAT LUSAKA
IS DEAD. NO PARTY HAS BEEN CLEARER THAN THE
ZIMBABWEANS, WOLPE NOTED, IN DESIRING THE FULL
IMPLEMENTATION OF THE LUSAKA ACCORDS. WOLPE TOLD
MNANGAGWA THAT HE WAS PLEASED TO HEAR THAT MUGABE HAD
DISCUSSED MASIRE'S ROLE WITH KABILA, AND ASKED THAT
MNANGAGWA CONVEY TO MUGABE THE US VIEW THAT THE SURVIVAL
OF THE LUSAKA PROCESS DEPENDS ON RETAINING MASIRE.
MNANGAGWA PLEDGED TO DO SO.



5. (C) WOLPE THEN EXPRESSED HIS CONCERN ABOUT A REPORT
THAT NAMIBIAN PRESIDENT SAM NUJOMA HAD MET WITH SEVERAL
INFLUENTIAL MEMBERS OF THE U.S. CONGRESS AND TOLD THEM
THAT MASIRE NO LONGER HAS THE SUPPORT OF KABILA'S
SOUTHERN ALLIES. NUJOMA'S COMMENTS, IF ACCURATELY
REPORTED, COULD HARDEN ALREADY SKEPTICAL MEMBERS OF
CONGRESS AGAINST THE MONUC OPERATION. WHY PAY FOR
PEACEKEEPING, THEY ARE LIKELY TO ASK, WHEN THE POLITICAL
ALTERNATIVE TO ARMED CONFLICT IS NO LONGER VIABLE? ON
THE OTHER HAND, WOLPE NOTED, THE OAU COUNCIL OF

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AC-01 NEA-00 NSAE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 PA-00 PM-00
PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 SSO-00 SS-00 TRSE-00
T-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DRL-02 G-00 SAS-00 /007W


--------------------------

71C047 241524Z /49
O 241517Z JUL 00
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6679
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
RWANDA COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 004062

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR A/S RICE AND PDAS POWELL

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH

USUN FOR HOLBROOKE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/01/10
TAGS: PREL PGOV CG ZI
SUBJECT: S/E WOLPE'S DISCUSSION WITH MNANGAGWA ON DRC

MINISTERS RECENTLY ISSUED A STATEMENT TAKING A STRONG
STANCE THAT MASIRE SHOULD REMAIN AS FACILITATOR AND THAT
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PAGE 02 HARARE 04062 02 OF 03 241524Z
THE LUSAKA SIGNATORIES SHOULD COOPERATE WITH HIM.
MNANGAGWA, WHO RECENTLY RETURNED FROM A PRIVATE TRIP TO
ENGLAND, SAID THAT HE HAD NOT BEEN AWARE OF THE OAU
STATEMENT.



6. (C) WOLPE SUGGESTED THAT IT MAY BE POSSIBLE TO
PRESERVE MASIRE'S ROLE BY IMPLEMENTING FACE-SAVING
MEASURES. HE NOTED THAT MASIRE HAS TWO BASIC PROBLEMS
REGARDING THE CONGO: HE DOES NOT KNOW THE CONGO WELL AND
HE DOES NOT SPEAK FRENCH. SEVERAL PROMINENT FRENCH
SPEAKERS, WOLPE TOLD MNANGAGWA, HAVE OFFERED TO MAKE
THEMSELVES AVAILABLE TO ASSIST MASIRE. WOLPE TOLD
MNANGAGWA THAT HE WOULD BE PRESSING FOR ACCEPTANCE OF
THIS "MASIRE-PLUS" IDEA DURING HIS OTHER TRAVEL IN THE
REGION. ONCE A CONSENSUS IS IN PLACE, THERE CAN BE A
MULTILATERAL EFFORT TO PUSH THE IDEA WITH KABILA.
MNANGAGWA EXPRESSED THE VIEW THAT KABILA WILL ONLY
SOFTEN ON HIS OPPOSITION TO MASIRE IF ANGOLA, NAMIBIA,
AND ZIMBABWE TAKE A UNITED STAND. IF THERE IS ANY SIGN
OF WEAKNESS, HE WILL REMAIN OBDURATE. WOLPE AGREED, AND
ASKED MNANGAGWA WHETHER HE BELIEVED THE GOZ WOULD
SUPPORT THE "MASIRE-PLUS" APPROACH. MNANGAGWA DID NOT
REPLY DIRECTLY, BUT REPEATED THAT MUGABE HAD "FOUND NO
FAULT" WITH MASIRE'S PERFORMANCE.

COMPLIANCE WITH LUSAKA


--------------------------





7. (C) WOLPE EXPRESSED CONCERN ABOUT KABILA'S DECISION
TO UNILATERALLY APPOINT A CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY, AND
RECALLED THAT MUGABE HAD SAID SEVERAL MONTHS AGO THAT HE
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PAGE 03 HARARE 04062 02 OF 03 241524Z
BELIEVED HE HAD PERSUADED KABILA AGAINST TAKING SUCH A
STEP. MNANGAGWA CONCURRED THAT MUGABE HAD ADVISED
KABILA AGAINST APPOINTING THE ASSEMBLY, WHICH HE WARNED
WOULD BE SEEN AS A PREEMPTION OF THE LUSAKA PROCESS.
KABILA HAD REPLIED THAT HE WOULD GO BACK TO THE CABINET
ON THE ISSUE. LATER, MNANGAGWA CONTINUED, THE CONGOLESE
MINISTER OF JUSTICE HAD PHONED MNANGAGWA FROM KINSHASA
AND SAID THAT THE GOVERNMENT HAD DECIDED THAT IT WOULD
PROCEED WITH THE CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY, BUT THE JUSTICE
MINISTER RATHER THAN THE PRESIDENT WOULD CONVENE IT.
MNANGAGWA HAD REPLIED TO THE MINISTER THAT THE CONGO IS
A SOVEREIGN STATE BUT THIS WAS NOT A GOOD MOVE
DIPLOMATICALLY. WOLPE NOTED THAT THE ANNOUNCEMENT OF
THE ASSEMBLY HAD HAD VERY NEGATIVE CONSEQUENCES FOR THE
PEACE PROCESS.

CONTINUED FIGHTING IN CONGO


--------------------------





8. (C) WOLPE NOTED THAT KABILA'S INTRANSIGENCE ON
MASIRE AND OTHER ISSUES IS CREATING PROBLEMS WITH
CONGOLESE REBEL GROUPS. FOR EXAMPLE, MLC LEADER JEAN
PIERRE BEMBA RECENTLY RESPONDED TO WARNINGS NOT TO MOVE
ON MBANDAKA BY POINTING TO KABILA'S OFFENSIVE IN
EQUATEUR AND HIS RESISTANCE TO MASIRE. BEMBA HAS ASKED
HOW LONG HE SHOULD BE EXPECTED TO HOLD BACK. WOLPE TOLD
MNANGAGWA THAT HE, AMBASSADOR HOLBROOKE, AND SOUTH
AFRICAN FOREIGN MINISTER ZUMA HAVE POINTEDLY TOLD BEMBA
TO LIMIT HIMSELF TO DEFENDING TERRITORY THAT HE
CURRENTLY HOLDS RATHER THAN ADVANCING.

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 04 HARARE 04062 02 OF 03 241524Z
MONUC DEPLOYMENT


--------------------------





9. (C) WOLPE TOLD MNANGAGWA THAT THE USG IS PUSHING
THE UN TO GET READY FOR THE DEPLOYMENT OF MONUC, SUBJECT
TO THE FULFILLMENT OF SECURITY AND ACCESS CONDITIONS.
MNANGAGWA SAID THAT THE GOZ HAS STRESSED TO KABILA THE
NEED TO MAINTAIN AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE THERE IS NO REASON
TO DELAY THE DEPLOYMENT OF UN TROOPS. IF THERE ARE ANY
VIOLATIONS, THE GOZ HAS WARNED KABILA, THEY MUST BE FROM
THE OTHER SIDE. ONCE MONUC HAS ARRIVED AND FOREIGN
TROOPS HAVE WITHDRAWN, MNANGAGWA CONTINUED, THE GOZ
BELIEVES THAT THERE IS NO MORE SECURITY THREAT. WITHOUT
UGANDA'S BACKING, BEMBA AND OTHER REBEL LEADERS WILL BE
POWERLESS. WOLPE AGREED, NOTING THAT THE EXTERNAL
SIGNATORIES HAVE ALWAYS BEEN MUCH MORE EAGER TO GET A UN
PRESENCE ESTABLISHED THAN HAS KABILA. MNANGAGWA
COMMENTED THAT KABILA BELIEVES, INCORRECTLY, THAT HE
BENEFITS FROM THE PRESENCE OF FOREIGN TROOPS.



10. (C) WOLPE NOTED THAT, IRONICALLY, KISANGANI MAY BE
THE FIRST PLACE WHERE IT IS POSSIBLE FOR MONUC TO
DEPLOY. HE SAID THERE WAS SOME CONSIDERATION BEING

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ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 AID-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 EAP-00 EUR-00
VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 L-00 VCE-00
AC-01 NEA-00 NSAE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 PA-00 PM-00
PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 SSO-00 SS-00 TRSE-00
T-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DRL-02 G-00 SAS-00 /007W


--------------------------

71C052 241525Z /49
O 241517Z JUL 00
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6680
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
RWANDA COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 004062

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR A/S RICE AND PDAS POWELL

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH

USUN FOR HOLBROOKE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/01/10
TAGS: PREL PGOV CG ZI
SUBJECT: S/E WOLPE'S DISCUSSION WITH MNANGAGWA ON DRC

GIVEN TO SEPARATING DEPLOYMENT IN KISANGANI FROM THE
REST OF THE DEPLOYMENT PROCESS, WHICH WOULD REQUIRE
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PAGE 02 HARARE 04062 03 OF 03 241525Z
ALTERING THE UN RESOLUTION ON MONUC. MNANGAGWA WAS
NONCOMMITTAL ON THIS IDEA.

CONDITIONS FOR WITHDRAWAL


--------------------------





11. (C) WOLPE ASKED MNANGAGWA IF HE WAS CORRECT IN
ASSUMING THAT ZIMBABWE IS AS COMMITTED AS EVER TO A
WITHDRAWAL. MNANGAGWA SAID THAT THIS IS TRUE. "ONCE UN
TROOPS ARE IN THE DRC, WE HAVE NO JUSTIFICATION TO
REMAIN UNLESS ASKED BY THE UN," HE SAID. MNANGAGWA
NOTED THAT THE OFFICIAL GOZ POSITION IS THAT ITS TROOPS
WILL WITHDRAW ONCE IT IS SATISFIED THAT THE CONDITIONS
FOR SECURITY IN THE CONGO ARE IN PLACE. HOWEVER, THE
GOZ'S "REAL POSITION" IS THAT IT WILL WITHDRAW ONCE THE
UN PEACEKEEPING TROOPS HAVE BEEN DEPLOYED. (COMMENT:
HE DID NOT SPECIFY TO WHICH PHASE OF THE MONUC
DEPLOYMENT HE WAS REFERRING. END COMMENT.) THE GOZ
CANNOT SAY THIS PUBLICLY, HE CONTINUED, BECAUSE KABILA
MIGHT THEN CREATE NEW OBSTACLES TO MONUC DEPLOYMENT.
WOLPE ASKED WHETHER, IN THE SHORT TERM, THE GOZ WOULD BE
AMENABLE TO NEGOTIATING A PARTIAL WITHDRAWAL. MNANGAGWA
REPLIED AFFIRMATIVELY. WOLPE REPLIED THAT THE GOZ'S
RECEPTIVITY TO THIS POSSIBILITY WAS HELPFUL.



12. (C) WOLPE OUTLINED THE USG NON-PAPER ON
DISARMAMENT, DEMOBILIZATION, RESETTLEMENT, AND
REINTEGRATION (DDRR). WOLPE TOLD MNANGAGWA THAT HE IS
CURRENTLY SEEKING COMMENTS ON THE PROPOSAL FROM THE
EXTERNAL SIGNATORIES. HE ASKED WHETHER THERE HAD BEEN
ANY PROGRESS ON THE ISSUE OF VOLUNTARY DISARMAMENT AND
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PAGE 03 HARARE 04062 03 OF 03 241525Z
DEMOBILIZATION. MNANGAGWA RESPONDED THAT THE GOZ HAD
BACKED OFF OF THIS ENTIRE ISSUE AFTER KABILA REPLIED
NEGATIVELY AND "WE BURNED OUR FINGERS." WOLPE NOTED
THAT THE ISSUE HAD BEEN RESURRECTED AT VICTORIA FALLS,
AND ASKED IF THERE HAD BEEN ANY MOVEMENT. MNANGAGWA
SAID THAT THERE HAD NOT. PRENDERGAST SAID PART OF THEIR
MISSION IS TO CONSULT THE SIGNATORIES ON THE FEASIBILITY
OF A TECHNICAL MISSION TO ASSESS THE CONDITIONS AND
RESOURCES NECESSARY FOR VOLUNTARY DEMOBILIZATION OF THE
NON-STATE ACTORS. THE USG HAS PRESENTED THE NON-PAPER
TO THE OTHER SIGNATORIES AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS FOR
PROGRESS ON THE ISSUE. MNANGAGWA INDICATED HIS SUPPORT
FOR THE IDEAS, BUT SAID ZIMBABWE WOULD BE VERY CAREFUL
ON THIS ISSUE BECAUSE OF ITS PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE WITH
KABILA.



13. (C) AS THE MEETING CONCLUDED, MNANGAGWA SAID THAT
PROGRESS TOWARD A WITHDRAWAL IS PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT
TO THE GOZ NOW, BECAUSE THERE IS A NEW GOVERNMENT AND
"WE DO NOT WANT IT BURDENED BY THE (PROBLEMS OF THE)
PAST ONE."

COMMENT


--------------------------





14. (C) MNANGAGWA MADE A NUMBER OF POINTS THAT REVEALED
WHERE THE GOZ MAY BE ON CERTAIN KEY ISSUES. 1) ZIMBABWE
REMAINS COMMITTED TO THE FASTEST POSSIBLE IMPLEMENTATION
OF THE LUSAKA PEACE PROCESS; 2) SIGNIFICANT WITHDRAWALS
ARE IN THE GOZ'S POLITICAL INTEREST, ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT
KNOWN IF THE GOZ WILL SEEK TO RETAIN A RESIDUAL FORCE TO
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PAGE 04 HARARE 04062 03 OF 03 241525Z
PROTECT CORE ECONOMIC INTERESTS; 3) THE GOZ MAINTAINS A
DIVERGENCE BETWEEN ITS PUBLIC AND PRIVATE LINES ON ITS
POSTURE IN CONGO BECAUSE THEY DO NOT WANT KABILA TO
BELIEVE THAT MONUC DEPLOYMENT WILL LEAD TO THE GOZ'S
WITHDRAWAL; 4) THE SIGNATORIES MUST NOT ACQUIESCE TO
KABILA'S EFFORT TO OUST MASIRE. BUT THE GOZ SEEKS TO
CLARIFY THE TERMS OF REFERENCE OF THE FACILITATION, TO
GIVE THE SIGNATORIES MORE LEVERAGE WITH BOTH KABILA AND
MASIRE.

IRVING

CONFIDENTIAL

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