S/E WOLPE'S MEETING WITH SAG DDG FOR AFRICA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 003942

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR A/S SUSAN RICE AND PDAS POWELL

NSC FOR GAYLE SMITH

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PAGE 02 HARARE 03942 01 OF 03 181827Z

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/18/2005
TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS BY CF SF TZ
SUBJECT: S/E WOLPE'S MEETING WITH SAG DDG FOR AFRICA
WELILE NHLAPO

REF: A) STATE 132954
B) STATE 135319

CLASSIFIED BY SPECIAL ENVOY HOWARD WOLPE, REASONS 1.5(B) AND
(D).


1. (C) SUMMARY. ACCORDING TO SAG DDG FOR AFRICA WELILE NHLAPO,
CNDD/FDD REBEL LEADER JEAN BOSCO NDAYIKENGURUKIYE AND FNL REBEL
LEADER KOSSAN KABURA NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN THE ARUSHA PEACE PROCESS.
WHILE
SAG OFFICIALS AND FACILITATOR NELSON MANDELA DOUBT BOTH KOSSAN'S INTENT
AND LEADERSHIP ABILITY, THEY HAVE BEEN MORE FAVORABLY IMPRESSED
WITH JEAN BOSCO'S WILLINGNESS TO ENTER INTO DIALOGUE. MANDELA HAS
URGED JEAN BOSCO TO DECLARE A UNILATERAL SUSPENSION OF ALL ARMED
ACTION. NHLAPO TOLD SPECIAL ENVOY WOLPE THAT MANDELA IS FRUSTRATED
WITH THE "GAMES" THE BURUNDIAN PARTIES ARE PLAYING IN ARUSHA. NHLAPO
SUGGESTED THAT THE TIME WAS RIPE TO BRING TOGETHER THE KEY BURUNDIAN PA
RTIES, WITH INTERNATIONAL ENVOYS IN THE WINGS TO EXERT PRESSURE AS NEED
ED.


2. (C) NHLAPO FIRMLY STATED THAT TO WITHDRAW SUPPORT FOR DROC
NATIONAL DIALOGUE FACILITATOR MASIRE WOULD BE TO GIVE THE CONGOLESE
THE SIGNAL TO RETURN TO WAR. SOUTH AFRICA HAS STRONGLY COUNSELED
MLC LEADER BEMBA TO NOT ADVANCE TOWARD MBANDAKA. S/E WOLPE SUGGESTED
ANOTHER MEETING OF THE FIVE EXTERNAL PARTIES (ZIMBABWE, ANGOLA,
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NAMIBIA, UGANDA, AND RWANDA) SIMILAR TO THE VICTORIA FALLS MEETING
AS A WAY TO CONSOLIDATE THEIR POLITICAL UNDERSTANDING AND TO DECIDE
HOW BEST TO GET ALL OF THE CONGOLESE PARTIES TO COMPLY WITH LUSAKA.
END SUMMARY.

BURUNDI: U.S. PERSPECTIVE
--------------


3. (C) DURING A JULY 16 LUNCH, S/E WOLPE, WHO WAS ACCOMPANIED BY
SPECIAL ADVISOR JOHN PRENDERGAST AND POLOFF (NOTETAKER),OUTLINED FOR
DEPARTMENT OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS DEPUTY DIRECTOR GENERAL (DDG) FOR AFRICA,

WELILE NHLAPO, USG CONCERNS REGARDING THE BURUNDI PEACE PROCESS. S/E
WOLPE INFORMED NHLAPO THAT HE AND PRENDERGAST WOULD BE MEETING WITH
FACILITATOR NELSON MANDELA ON JULY 17, AND WOULD ANNOUNCE THE
SUCCESSFUL DEPOSIT OF $US500,000 TO THE ARUSHA ACCOUNT, AND THE USG
DECISION TO ALLOCATE AN ADDITIONAL $500,000, PENDING CONGRESSIONAL
NOTIFICATION. THE SPECIAL ENVOY STRESSED THAT, WHILE RELIEVED THAT
MANDELA HAD DECIDED TO POSTPONE THE SIGNING OF THE ARUSHA PEACE ACCORD
FROM JULY 20 TO AUGUST 28 (REF B),EVEN THE LATTER DATE WAS PREMATURE.

AS WOLPE RECOUNTED, THE HISTORY OF THE RWANDAN AND SIERRA LEONE PEACE
PROCESSES ILLUSTRATE THE NEED TO PROPERLY DEAL WITH ISSUES SUCH AS
IMPUNITY AND AMNESTY, AND TO INSURE ALL KEY PLAYERS ARE AT THE TABLE.
FURTHER, SAID THE SPECIAL ENVOY, THE BURUNDIAN PARTIES HAVE NOT YET
REACHED AGREEMENT ON CRITICAL AREAS SUCH AS ARMED FORCES INTEGRATION,
THE DEFINITION OF GENOCIDE, AND WHO WILL LEAD THE TRANSITION.


4. (C) WHILE WOLPE STRESSED THAT MANDELA HAD ENGENDERED THE BELIEF
AMONG THE BURUNDIAN PARTIES THAT AN AGREEMENT WAS FEASIBLE, AND HAD
BROUGHT CORE ISSUES TO THE TABLE, THE SPECIAL ENVOY MAINTAINED THAT A
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MORE REASONABLE GOAL WAS TO SECURE A PEACE AGREEMENT BY THE END OF THE
CALENDAR YEAR. WOLPE AND NHLAPO AGREED THAT MANDELA SHOULD BE
ENCOURAGED TO POSTPONE SIGNING OF THE AGREEMENT UNTIL THE BURUNDIAN
PARTIES HAVE MORE OF AN OPPORTUNITY TO RESOLVE OUTSTANDING ISSUES.

SAG IMPRESSED WITH JEAN BOSCO
--------------


5. (C) NHLAPO RECALLED THAT SAG OFFICIALS HAD WARNED FORMER PRESIDENT

MANDELA THAT MANY OF THE BURUNDIAN PARTIES WERE NEITHER MATURE, NOR
HONEST. MANDELA COMPLAINS THAT THE BURUNDIANS ARE NOT COOPERATING ON
THE ISSUE OF POLITICAL PRISONERS, WITH ALL SIDES "PLAYING GAMES."
NHLAPO ADDED THAT MANDELA IS FRUSTRATED WITH THE ISSUE AND HAS TOLD
BURUNDIAN PRESIDENT BUYOYA THAT HE SIMPLY CANNOT ACCEPT ANY LEADER THAT

CONTINUES TO HOLD POLITICAL PRISONERS. AFTER POSITIVELY RESPONDING TO
WOLPE'S QUERY REGARDING THE POSSIBILITY OF USING AN INTERNATIONAL PANEL

TO ASSIST IN DEFINING POLITICAL PRISONERS, NHLAPO INDICATED THAT
MANDELA HAD TO FIRST CLEAR ON THE IDEA.


6. (C) ALTHOUGH NHLAPO EXPRESSED DOUBT ABOUT CNDD LEADER LEONARD

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ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 AID-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 EUR-00 VC-00
H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 L-00 AC-01 NSAE-00
NSCE-00 OMB-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00
SP-00 SSO-00 SS-00 TRSE-00 T-00 USIE-00 PMB-00
DRL-02 G-00 SAS-00 /005W
-------------- 6FA45F 181827Z /07
O 181550Z JUL 00
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6644
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RWANDA COLLECTIVE
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 003942

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR A/S SUSAN RICE AND PDAS POWELL

NSC FOR GAYLE SMITH

USUN FOR HOLBROOKE

USAID FOR GAMBINO

LONDON FOR PFLAUMER

PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS
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PAGE 02 HARARE 03942 02 OF 03 181827Z

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/18/2005
TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS BY CF SF TZ
SUBJECT: S/E WOLPE'S MEETING WITH SAG DDG FOR AFRICA
WELILE NHLAPO

NYANGOMA'S INCONSISTENCY AND INCOMPETENCY AND BAGAZA'S LEADERSHIP
ABILITY, THE DDG FOR AFRICA INDICATED THAT THE SAG HAS BEEN IMPRESSED
WITH CNDD/FDD REBEL LEADER JEAN BOSCO NDAYIKENGURUKIYE'S BEHAVIOR.
ACCORDING TO NHLAPO, MANDELA HAS HAD SUCCESS IN ESTABLISHING A RAPPORT
WITH JEAN BOSCO, WHO, IN TURN, HAS BEEN QUICK TO ASK FOR GUIDANCE ON
SUBJECTS HE DOES NOT UNDERSTAND. FOR EXAMPLE, ILLUSTRATED NHLAPO, JEAN

BOSCO REQUESTED ASSISTANCE IN EXPLAINING PORTIONS OF THE ARUSHA
DOCUMENTS. THE REBEL LEADER, SAID NHLAPO, IS "NOT PLAYING GAMES," AND
SAG OFFICIALS HAVE ORGANIZED HIS TRAVEL TO ARUSHA FOR THE JULY 19 - 20
SUMMIT. ON THE OTHER HAND, NHLAPO STRESSED THAT JEAN BOSCO IS "TREATED

LIKE A KING" IN LUBUMBASHI, WHICH MAKES HIS WILLINGNESS TO PARTICIPATE
IN THE ARUSHA TALKS MORE DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN. NHLAPO ADDED THAT IT
APPEARED THAT ZIMBABWE PRESIDENT MUGABE, UPON PRESIDENT MBEKI'S
REQUEST, DID DISCUSS JEAN BOSCO'S POSITION WITH KABILA. AS A RESULT,
JEAN BOSCO MAY NOW HAVE MORE FREEDOM OF MANEUVER.


7. (C) ACCORDING TO NHLAPO, MANDELA HAS SUGGESTED TO JEAN BOSCO THAT
THE REBEL LEADER DECLARE A UNILATERAL SUSPENSION OF ALL ARMED ACTION,
AS SUCH A MOVE WOULD ENHANCE JEAN BOSCO'S POLITICAL CREDIBILITY.
FURTHER, AN EFFECTIVE SUSPENSION WOULD DEMONSTRATE THE REBEL LEADER'S
COMMAND AND CONTROL ABILITY. JEAN BOSCO HAS HESITATED TO DO SO,
RECOUNTED NHLAPO, BECAUSE IT COULD "IMPLY SURRENDER." UPON HIS RETURN
FROM BUJUMBURA, SAID NHLAPO, MANDELA WROTE TO BOTH JEAN BOSCO AND FNL
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LEADER KOSSAN KABURA, AGAIN URGING THEM TO SUSPEND MILITARY ACTION,
ARGUING THAT THEY WOULD BENEFIT BY JOINING THE ARUSHA PROCESS.
KOSSAN'S RESPONSE TO THE LETTER, RECOUNTED NHLAPO, WAS TO INVITE
MANDELA TO VISIT THE REBEL LEADER'S "LIBERATED" AREAS. ACCORDING TO
NHLAPO, THE SAG HAS SERIOUS RESERVATIONS ABOUT KOSSAN'S LEADERSHIP
ABILITY. ON THE OTHER HAND, JEAN BOSCO'S "MORE MATURE" ANSWER, SAID
NHLAPO, INDICATED HE WAS RECEPTIVE TO FURTHER DISCUSSION WITH MANDELA.


8. (C) JEAN BOSCO'S RECEPTIVENESS NOTWITHSTANDING, NHLAPO MAINTAINED
THAT IF JEAN BOSCO AND KOSSAN EITHER REFUSED TO JOIN THE ARUSHA PROCESS

OR COULD NOT DELIVER ON A CEASE-FIRE, THE TWO REBEL LEADERS NEEDED TO
BE MARGINALIZED OR ELSE THEY IN TURN COULD DERAIL THE ENTIRE PROCESS.
AS THE BURUNDIAN GOVERNMENT IS NOT SURE OF THE EXTENT OF THE REBELS'
COMMAND AND CONTROL, NHLAPO EMPHASIZED THAT THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY

NEEDED TO EMBARK ON A "SERIOUS ANALYSIS" OF THESE MOVEMENTS IN ORDER TO

OBTAIN A CLEARER IDEA OF THE REBELS' ACTUAL STRENGTH. AS AN ASIDE,
NHLAPO ALSO NOTED THAT JEAN BOSCO'S PARTICIPATION IN THE ARUSHA TALKS
THREATENED NYANGOMA'S POSITION; HE INDICATED THAT MANDELA MUST MAKE A
SPECIAL EFFORT TO MEET WITH NYANGOMA DURING THE JULY 19-20 SUMMIT.

BROADENING ARUSHA
--------------


9. (C) S/E WOLPE TOLD NHLAPO THAT DON MATTEO ZUPPI ALSO BELIEVED THAT

MANDELA NEEDED TO BE PERSUADED NOT TO INSIST ON A SIGNING OF THE
AGREEMENT IN AUGUST. WOLPE ADDED THAT DON MATTEO HOPED THE JULY 19 -20

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SUMMIT WOULD CRYSTALLIZE DISCUSSION ON OUTSTANDING ISSUES AND ENABLE
THE KEY FIVE OR SIX ACTORS TO MEET TOGETHER TO WORK ON THESE PROBLEMS.
NHLAPO SUGGESTED THAT IF SUCH A GATHERING OF KEY BURUNDIAN PLAYERS WAS
TO BE ORGANIZED, IT WOULD BE HELPFUL TO HAVE INTERNATIONAL ENVOYS
PRESENT TO EXERT PRESSURE AS NEEDED.

DROC: PROBLEMS AHEAD
--------------


10. (C) IN RESPONSE TO S/E WOLPE'S COMMENT THAT THE USG HAD NOT
RECEIVED A READOUT FROM ZIMBABWE PRESIDENT MUGABE'S RECENT TRIP TO THE
DROC, NHLAPO INDICATED THAT THE SAG HAD NOT RECEIVED ONE EITHER, AS ITS

AMBASSADOR WAS CURRENTLY IN SOUTH AFRICA ON MEDICAL LEAVE. THE SPECIAL

ENVOY STRESSED THAT NAMIBIAN PRESIDENT SAM NUJOMA HAD WORRIED SEVERAL
CONGRESSMEN RECENTLY WHEN HE STATED THAT THE SADC ALLIES NO LONGER
SUPPORTED NATIONAL DIALOGUE FACILITATOR MASIRE. WOLPE STRESSED THAT
THE USG BELIEVES IT WOULD BE A DISASTER TO THE PEACE PROCESS IF THE
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY WERE TO ACQUIESCE IN KABILA'S REJECTION OF
MASIRE. NHLAPO CONCURRED AND ADDED THAT TO WITHDRAW SUPPORT FOR MASIRE

WOULD GIVE DROC PARTIES THE PRETEXT FOR A RENEWAL OF WAR IN THE CONGO.

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ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 AID-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 EUR-00 VC-00
H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 L-00 AC-01 NSAE-00
NSCE-00 OMB-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00
SP-00 SSO-00 SS-00 TRSE-00 T-00 USIE-00 PMB-00
DRL-02 G-00 SAS-00 /005W
-------------- 6FA4C3 181831Z /07
O 181550Z JUL 00
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6645
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RWANDA COLLECTIVE
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 003942

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR A/S SUSAN RICE AND PDAS POWELL

NSC FOR GAYLE SMITH

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USAID FOR GAMBINO

LONDON FOR PFLAUMER

PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 03942 03 OF 03 181831Z

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/18/2005
TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS BY CF SF TZ
SUBJECT: S/E WOLPE'S MEETING WITH SAG DDG FOR AFRICA
WELILE NHLAPO

EMPHASIZING THAT A FULL DEPLOYMENT OF MONUC FORCES DEPENDED UPON
KABILA'S COMPLYING WITH ALL THE LUSAKA AGREEMENT PROVISIONS, WOLPE
NOTED THAT KABILA STILL REFUSED MONUC FULL ACCESS AND WAS NOW EMBARKED
ON AN OFFENSIVE IN EQUATEUR PROVINCE.


11. (C) RECOUNTING RECENT TELEPHONE CALLS HE AND PERMANENT
REPRESENTATIVE HOLBROOKE RECEIVED FROM MLC LEADER BEMBA REGARDING
KABILA'S OFFENSIVE AGAINST MLC FORCES AND HIS FRUSTRATION WITH THE
USG'S ADMONITION TO STAY IN PLACE AND NOT ATTACK MBANDAKA (REF A),
WOLPE STRESSED THAT THE USG REMAINED FIRM IN ITS POSITION OF
DISCOURAGING ANY OFFENSIVE ACTION, EVEN IN REACTION TO AN ATTACK.
NHLAPO AGREED, NOTING THAT BEMBA HAD ALSO INDICATED TO THE SAG THAT HE
WOULD LIKE TO MOVE FORWARD "A LITTLE BIT," BUT THAT SOUTH AFRICA HAD
STRONGLY COUNSELED AGAINST SUCH ACTION. ACCORDING TO NHLAPO, BEMBA
REMAINS EXTREMELY SENSITIVE ABOUT HIS CREDIBILITY WITH THE
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY. NHLAPO ADDED THAT BEMBA CLAIMED HE WAS UNDER
PRESSURE FROM HIS MILITARY COMMANDERS TO TAKE MBANDAKA, WHICH WOULD
PLACE HIS FORCES IN A DIRECT LINE TO KINSHASA. IN RETURN, THE SAG HAS
REPEATEDLY TOLD BEMBA TO EXERT HIS COMMAND AND CONTROL TO ENSURE THAT
NO MOVE IS MADE TOWARDS MBANDAKA. WOLPE NOTED THAT THE USG WAS SEEKING

CONFIRMATION OF BEMBA'S CLAIM THAT HE HAS WITHDRAWN HIS FORCES TO THE
KAMPALA CEASE-FIRE LINE. IF SO, SAID WOLPE, KABILA'S RECENT ATTACKS
HAVE VIOLATED BOTH THE KAMPALA AND LUSAKA AGREEMENTS.
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12. (C) IN CLOSING, SPECIAL ENVOY WOLPE SUGGESTED TO NHLAPO THAT THE
LUSAKA AGREEMENT WOULD BENEFIT FROM A MEETING OF THE FIVE EXTERNAL
ACTORS, ZIMBABWE, ANGOLA, NAMIBIA, UGANDA AND RWANDA, WITHOUT KABILA.
NHLAPO CONCURRED.

COMMENT
--------------


13. (C) IT APPEARS THAT USG AND SAG ANALYSIS AND PRESCRIPTION ARE IN
SYNCH, WITH RESPECT TO BOTH THE DRC AND BURUNDI PEACE PROCESSES. THE
MOST NOTABLE NEW ELEMENT IN NHLAPO'S COMMENTARY IS THE APPARENT RAPPORT

THAT FACILITATOR MANDELA HAS ESTABLISHED WITH THE FDD REBEL LEADER. TO

SECURE JEAN BOSCO'S PARTICIPATION IN THE JULY 19-20 ARUSHA MEETING
WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT STEP FORWARD. END COMMENT.

IRVING

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