ZIMBABWE'S NEW CABINET: MUGABE REARRANGES THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 HARARE 003910

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH

LONDON FOR PFLAUMER

PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS

PASS USAID FOR A/AID R. MCCALL AND AFR/SA W. JEFFERS

PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/17/2010
TAGS: PGOV PINR ECON ZI ZANU PF
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE'S NEW CABINET: MUGABE REARRANGES THE
DECK CHAIRS ON THE TITANIC


CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES EARL M. IRVING FOR
REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D).

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) PRESIDENT MUGABE ANNOUNCED HIS NEW 19 MEMBER
(DOWN FROM 27 MEMBERS) CABINET CONSISTING OF 19 MEMBER
ON JULY 15. A NUMBER OF THE OLD GUARD, INCLUDING WOMEN,
WERE JETTISONED IN FAVOR OF TECHNOCRATS AND PARTY
LOYALISTS. OF PARTICULAR NOTE IS THE FACT THAT THE
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RUTHLESS FORMER MINISTER OF JUSTICE, LEGAL AND
PARLIAMENTARY AFFAIRS EMMERSON MNANGAGWA GOT NO CABINET
POST, ALTHOUGH HE MAY GET THE NOD TO BE SPEAKER OF
PARLIAMENT WHERE HE WILL TAKE A HARD LINE AGAINST THE
OPPOSITION MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC). THE
TWO KEY ECONOMIC MINISTERS, NKOSANA MOYO AND SIMBA
MAKONI, WILL BE ATTRACTIVE AMBASSADORS FOR ZIMBABWE TO
THE WORLD, ALTHOUGH THEIR MARGIN FOR MANEUVER LIKELY
WILL BE ABRIDGED BY PRESIDENT MUGABE. THE ONE FEMALE
MINISTER, JOYCE MUJURU, HAS LITTLE INTEREST IN WOMEN'S
ISSUES AND PROBABLY OWES HER POSITION TO THE POWER
WIELDED BY HER HUSBAND, FORMER ARMY COMMANDER SOLOMON
MUJURU. THE SOCIAL MINISTRIES ARE IN THE HANDS OF WEAK
AND LESS THAN EFFECTIVE MINISTERS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
INFORMATION AND PUBLICITY MINISTER JONATHAN MOYO, WHOSE
OFFICE'S PLACEMENT WITHIN THE PRESIDENCY GIVES IT A
DISTINCTLY IDEOLOGICAL CAST. THE SECURITY MINISTRIES
WENT TO TRUSTED MUGABE ALLIES. HOME AFFAIRS, THE LEAST
SENSITIVE OF THESE, WENT TO A NDEBELE, JOHN NKOMO, WHO
IS NOT VIEWED AS A CREDIBLE REPRESENTATIVE OF HIS ETHNIC
GROUP IN MATABELELAND. SOME HERE ARGUE THAT THIS MIXED
BAG IS A "PLACE HOLDER" CABINET, AWAITING THE RETURN OF
THE OLD GUARD IN 2002. BE THAT AS IT MAY, WE DO NOT SEE
IN ITS COMPOSITION A SUFFICIENT DEPARTURE FROM THE
PROBLEMS THAT HAVE PLAGUED THE MUGABE GOVERNMENT TO
DATE. END SUMMARY.

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THE LOSERS
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2. (C) PRESIDENT MUGABE ANNOUNCED HIS NEW, TRIMMED DOWN
(FROM 27),19-MEMBER, CABINET ON JULY 15. A NUMBER OF
PORTFOLIOS HAVE BEEN REARRANGED OR JETTISONED
ALTOGETHER. THE BIG LOSERS IN THIS GO-ROUND ARE THE OLD
GUARD, THE WAR VETERANS AND WOMEN.


3. (C) WE COUNT 15 LOSERS: FORMER MINISTER OF JUSTICE,
LEGAL AND PARLIAMENTARY AFFAIRS EMMERSON MNANAGAGWA;
FORMER MINISTER WITHOUT PORTFOLIO EDDISON ZVOGBO; FORMER
MINISTER OF INFORMATION, POSTS AND TELECOMMUNICATIONS,
CHEN CHIMUTENGWENDE; FORMER PLANNING COMMISSIONER
RICHARD HOVE; FORMER MINISTER OF STATE IN THE
PRESIDENT'S OFFICE CEPHAS MSIPA; FORMER MINISTER OF
STATE TSUNGIRAI HUNGWE; FORMER MINISTER OF STATE OPPAH
MUCHINGURI (WHO MAY BE IN LINE FOR A PROVINCIAL
GOVERNOR'S JOB); FORMER MINISTER OF STATE SITHEMBISO
NYONI; FORMER MINISTER WITHOUT PORTFOLIO WITNESS
MANGWENDE; WAR VETERANS LEADER CHENJERAI HITLER HUNZVI
(RUMOR HAS IT HE MAY BE OFFERED A DEPUTY MINISTER
POSITION); FORMER MINISTER OF MINES ENVIRONMENT AND
TOURISM SIMON K. MOYO; FORMER AFFIRMATIVE ACTION GROUP
HEAD PHILIP CHIYANGWA (ALSO REPORTEDLY IN LINE FOR A
DEPUTY MINISTER'S JOB); FORMER MINISTER OF LANDS AND
AGRICULTURE KUMBIRAI KANGAI; FORMER MINISTER OF HOME

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ITC-01 LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 DCP-01 NSAE-00
OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00
SP-00 SSC-01 SSO-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 R-00
PMB-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /012W
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FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6632
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
AMEMBASSY GABORONE
AMEMBASSY KAMPALA
AMEMBASSY KIGALI
AMEMBASSY KINSHASA
AMEMBASSY LILONGWE
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY LUANDA
AMEMBASSY LUSAKA
AMEMBASSY MAPUTO
AMEMBASSY MASERU
AMEMBASSY MBABANE
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
AMEMBASSY PARIS
AMEMBASSY PRETORIA
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AMEMBASSY WINDHOEK

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 04 HARARE 003910

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH

LONDON FOR PFLAUMER

PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS

PASS USAID FOR A/AID R. MCCALL AND AFR/SA W. JEFFERS

PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/17/2010
TAGS: PGOV PINR ECON ZI ZANU PF
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE'S NEW CABINET: MUGABE REARRANGES THE
DECK CHAIRS ON THE TITANIC

AFFAIRS DUMISO DABENGWA; AND FORMER MINISTER OF PUBLIC
SERVICE, LABOR AND SOCIAL WELFARE FLORENCE CHITAURO.


4. (C) OTHER ALSO-RANS WERE: FORMER DEPUTY MINISTER OF
AGRICULTURE OLIVIA MUCHENA, WHO DID NOT WIN THE PARTY
PRIMARY AND WHOSE CANDIDACY ZANU-PF IMPOSED ON HER
MUTOKO CONSTITUENCY; FORMER MANICALAND GOVERNOR KENNETH
MANYONDA, WHO BEAT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI IN THE RACE FOR THE
BUHERA NORTH CONSTITUENCY; AND FORMER DEPUTY MINISTER OF
MINES ENVIRONMENT AND TOURISM EDWARD CHINDORI-CHININGA.


5. (C) THE MOST SURPRISING MEMBER OF THE LIST IS THE
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RUTHLESS MNANGAGWA, WHO SAID HE DID NOT WANT ANY
CONSOLATION APPOINTMENT AFTER HAVING LOST HIS SEAT IN
PARLIAMENT TO A RELATIVELY UNKNOWN CANDIDATE FROM THE
OPPOSITION MDC, BLESSING CHEBUNDO. SOME HERE SPECULATE
THE FORMER JUSTICE MINISTER MAY BE IN LINE TO BE THE
NEXT SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT, FOR WHICH HE IS QUALIFIED AS
THE CONSTITUTION SPECIFIES THAT THE SPEAKER MUST BE OR
HAVE BEEN A MEMBER OF PARLIAMENT. IF THAT IS THE CASE,
THEN IT IS VERY UNLIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE MUCH
COOPERATION BETWEEN THE RULING ZANU-PF AND THE MDC IN
PARLIAMENT, INDEED, THERE IS LIKELY TO BE TOTAL
CONFRONTATION. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT MNANGAGWA
INTENDS TO WAIT IN THE WINGS FOR THE BIG PRIZE -- THE
PRESIDENCY IN 2002.

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THE ECONOMIC MINISTRIES
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6. (C) FOR PURPOSES OF ANALYSIS WE COULD DIVIDE THE
CABINET PORTFOLIO INTO THREE AREAS: ECONOMIC, SOCIAL AND
SECURITY. ON THE ECONOMIC SIDE WE HAVE A MIXED BAG.
FAILED BANKER (AND SON-IN-LAW OF THE LATE VICE PRESIDENT
JOSHUA NKOMO),FRANCIS NHEMA, HEADS UP THE ENVIRONMENT
AND TOURISM PORTFOLIO, WHICH MANY HERE EXPECTED WOULD GO
TO THE FORMER DEPUTY MINISTER OF MINES ENVIRONMENT AND
TOURISM EDWARD CHINDORI-CHININGA. NHEMA TAKES THE HELM
OF A MINISTRY THAT OFFERS GREAT POSSIBILITY FOR
CORRUPTION. AT THE SAME TIME, HE FACES AT LEAST ONE
CHARGE OF FRAUD PENDING AGAINST HIM IN THE COURTS.
RESPECTED BUSINESSMAN AND FORMER SADC SECRETARY GENERAL
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SIMBA MAKONI IS IN CHARGE OF THE MINISTRY OF FINANCE AND
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, WHICH APPARENTLY SUBSUMED THE OLD
PLANNING COMMISSION. MAKONI IS A TECHNOCRAT WHO AS A
DIRECTOR OF ZIMPAPERS, THE PUBLISHER OF THE GOVERNMENT
INFLUENCED "THE HERALD," TURNED IT INTO A PROFITABLE
CONCERN, BUT WAS SACKED WHEN HE ATTEMPTED TO INFLUENCE
EDITORIAL POLICY. NEVERTHELESS, HE IS UNLIKELY TO HAVE
MUCH AUTONOMY TO CRAFT ECONOMIC POLICY, AS THE PRESIDENT
WILL TIE HIS HANDS IN THIS CONNECTION. SIMILARLY,
NKOSANA MOYO AS MINISTER OF INDUSTRY AND INTERNATIONAL
TRADE (A SURPRISING APPOINTMENT GIVEN THAT MOYO HAS
ALWAYS TAKEN PAINS TO CAST HIMSELF AS A POLITICAL
INDEPENDENT) IS ONE OF THE BEST ZIMBABWE HAS TO OFFER IN
TERMS OF TECHNICAL CAPACITY, GRASP OF THE ISSUES AND
NETWORK OF CONTACTS. WE PREDICT HE TOO WILL PROBABLY
NOT HAVE MUCH OF A MARGIN FOR MANEUVER. LANDS,
AGRICULTURE AND RESETTLEMENT MINISTER JOSEPH MADE IS
SEEN AS A ZANU-PF HARD-LINER WHO WILL TAKE AN
UNCOMPROMISING STANCE ON LAND REDISTRIBUTION. HE HAS
BEEN THE ONE DEVISING THE JUSTIFICATIONS FOR THE
COMMERCIAL FARM INVASIONS. THE "PROMOTION" OF FORMER
NATIONAL SECURITY MINISTER OF STATE SYDNEY SEKERAMAYI TO
HEAD UP THE MINISTRY OF MINES AND ENERGY, FOR WHICH HE
HAS NO DISCERNIBLE QUALIFICATIONS, IS A CURIOUS ONE. WE

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SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00 EXIM-01 E-00 FAAE-00
FBIE-00 VC-00 FRB-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00
ITC-01 LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OMB-01
OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00
SSC-01 SSO-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 R-00 PMB-00
DSCC-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /011W
-------------- 6F0C02 171529Z /38
O 171535Z JUL 00
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6633
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
AMEMBASSY GABORONE
AMEMBASSY KAMPALA
AMEMBASSY KIGALI
AMEMBASSY KINSHASA
AMEMBASSY LILONGWE
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY LUANDA
AMEMBASSY LUSAKA
AMEMBASSY MAPUTO
AMEMBASSY MASERU
AMEMBASSY MBABANE
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
AMEMBASSY PARIS
AMEMBASSY PRETORIA
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PAGE 02 HARARE 03910 03 OF 04 171529Z
AMEMBASSY WINDHOEK

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 04 HARARE 003910

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH

LONDON FOR PFLAUMER

PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS

PASS USAID FOR A/AID R. MCCALL AND AFR/SA W. JEFFERS

PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/17/2010
TAGS: PGOV PINR ECON ZI ZANU PF
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE'S NEW CABINET: MUGABE REARRANGES THE
DECK CHAIRS ON THE TITANIC

CAN ONLY SPECULATE THAT HE HAS BEEN PUT IN CHARGE OF THE
PORTFOLIO TO LOOT THE COUNTRY'S MINERAL WEALTH AND SKIM
OFF COMMISSIONS FROM OIL IMPORT DEALS.

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THE SOCIAL MINISTRIES
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7. (C) THE SOCIAL SECTOR HAS A COLLECTION OF WEAK
MINISTERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF JONATHAN MOYO, ZANU-PF'S
SPLENETIC SPIN DOCTOR DURING THE FAILED CONSTITUTIONAL
REVIEW PROCESS AND RECENT PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION, WHO
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HAS BEEN NAMED MINSTER OF STATE FOR INFORMATION AND
PUBLICITY. THE MINISTRY NORMALLY SHOULD HAVE TECHNICAL
REGULATORY OVERSIGHT OF COMMUNICATIONS IN THE COUNTRY,
BUT HAVING BEEN MOVED INTO THE PRESIDENT'S OFFICE GIVES
THE PORTFOLIO AN IDEOLOGICAL CAST. OUR FEAR IS THAT NO
ONE WILL BE ABLE TO SILENCE HIM. HE MAY SHOOT DOWN ANY
GOOD ECONOMIC IDEAS THAT MINISTERS MAKONI AND MOYO MAY
HAVE AND COULD POISON RELATIONS WITH THE DONOR
COMMUNITY. TIMOTHY "KILLJOY" STAMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
PRESIDE OVER THE DECLINING MINISTRY OF HEALTH AND CHILD
WELFARE. IGNATIUS CHOMBO AS HEAD OF LOCAL GOVERNMENT,
PUBLIC WORKS AND NATIONAL HOUSING IS ALSO PERCEIVED AS A
NONENTITY. HERBERT MURERWA AS MINISTER OF HIGHER
EDUCATION AND TECHNOLOGY PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE IN HIS
PATTERN OF A DECENT BUT INEFFECTIVE CABINET MEMBER;
HOWEVER A MARGINALLY MORE EFFECTIVE MINISTER IN THIS
LESS POLITICAL PORTFOLIO. BORDER GEZI, AN OPPORTUNISTIC
LIGHTWEIGHT WHO LED FARM INVASIONS, THE POLITICAL
REEDUCATION EXERCISE, AND VOTER INTIMIDATION AS GOVERNOR
OF MASHONALAND CENTRAL PROVINCE, WAS REWARDED WITH THE
POST OF MINISTER OF YOUTH DEVELOPMENT, GENDER AND
EMPLOYMENT CREATION, A MINISTRY WITHOUT TEETH AND NOT
INVOLVED IN POLICY MAKING. THIS HAS BEEN THE MINISTRY
IN WHICH CIVIL SERVANTS ESSENTIALLY DID ZANU-PF PARTY
WORK AND COULD BE CALLED TO ACCOUNT BY THE MDC FOR HOW
IT SPENT ITS BUDGET ALLOTMENT. THE SOLE WOMAN APPOINTED
TO THE CABINET IS JOYCE MUJURU, RETAINING HER POST AS
MINISTER OF RURAL RESOURCES AND WATER DEVELOPMENT. THE
APPOINTMENT APPEARS TO BE A NOD TO HER POWERFUL HUSBAND,
FORMER ARMY COMMANDER SOLOMON MUJURU, CONSIDERED HERE AS
A KINGMAKER. MUJURU HAS SHOWN NO INTEREST IN PROMOTING
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WOMEN'S ISSUES AND IS A GREAT DISAPPOINTMENT TO WOMEN'S
RIGHTS ACTIVISTS. FOREIGN MINISTER STANISLAUS MUDENGE,
WHO IS ARROGANT BUT NO SHINING STAR, ALSO RETAINED HIS
POSITION.

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THE SECURITY MINISTRIES
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8. (C) THE SECURITY MINISTRIES CONTINUE IN THE HANDS OF
TRUSTED LOYALISTS. NICHOLAS GOCHE LEAVES AS DEPUTY
MINISTER OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND RETURNS TO HIS ROOTS IN
INTELLIGENCE AS SPYMASTER MINISTER OF STATE SECURITY.
GOCHE, WITH WHOM WE HAVE HAD GOOD RELATIONS, PLAYED COY
ABOUT HIS APPOINTMENT WITH AMBASSADOR MCDONALD WHEN THEY
MET ON THE MARGINS OF THE FRENCH NATIONAL DAY RECEPTION
JULY 14, AND MAY PROVE A MORE ACCESSIBLE MINISTER.
FORMER ATTORNEY GENERAL PATRICK CHINAMASA HEADS THE
MINISTRY OF JUSTICE LEGAL AND PARLIAMENTARY AFFAIRS,
WHICH WILL BE USED AS A BLUNT INSTRUMENT FOR MUGABE TO
HAVE HIS WAY WITH THE LAW. CHINAMASA IS ARGUABLY THE
CABINET MEMBER WHO IS CLOSEST TO THE PRESIDENT AND IS
GENERALLY PERCEIVED AS WILLING TO DO WHATEVER THE
PRESIDENT ASKS. MOVEN MAHACHI RETAINS THE DEFENSE

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SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00 EXIM-01 E-00 FAAE-00
FBIE-00 VC-00 FRB-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00
ITC-01 LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OMB-01
OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00
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O 171535Z JUL 00
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6634
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
AMEMBASSY GABORONE
AMEMBASSY KAMPALA
AMEMBASSY KIGALI
AMEMBASSY KINSHASA
AMEMBASSY LILONGWE
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY LUANDA
AMEMBASSY LUSAKA
AMEMBASSY MAPUTO
AMEMBASSY MASERU
AMEMBASSY MBABANE
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
AMEMBASSY PARIS
AMEMBASSY PRETORIA
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PAGE 02 HARARE 03910 04 OF 04 171529Z
AMEMBASSY WINDHOEK

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 04 OF 04 HARARE 003910

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH

LONDON FOR PFLAUMER

PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS

PASS USAID FOR A/AID R. MCCALL AND AFR/SA W. JEFFERS

PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/17/2010
TAGS: PGOV PINR ECON ZI ZANU PF
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE'S NEW CABINET: MUGABE REARRANGES THE
DECK CHAIRS ON THE TITANIC

PORTFOLIO, PERHAPS BECAUSE MUGABE WAS UNDER NO DOMESTIC
PRESSURE TO RELIEVE HIM OF IT. MAHACHI IS NOT SEEN AS
HAVING ANY POLICY INPUT ON MILITARY MATTERS AS THAT IS
THE PREROGATIVE OF THE PRESIDENT HIMSELF. MOREOVER,
MUGABE MAY NEITHER WISH TO ALIENATE A MINISTER WHO
PARTICIPATES IN THE ECONOMIC DEALS ARISING FROM THE
MILITARY INTERVENTION IN THE CONGO, NOR SEND A SHUDDER
THROUGH THE MILITARY, WHO HAVE LOYALLY DONE HIS BIDDING,
BY REPLACING THE TOP MAN. A NDEBELE, JOHN NKOMO,
SUCCEEDS FELLOW NDEBELE DUMISO DABENGWA IN THE HOME
AFFAIRS MINISTRY. NKOMO IS VIEWED AS COMPETENT AND
DECENT, AND MUGABE MAY HAVE THOUGHT IT A GOOD IDEA TO
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APPOINT AN ETHNIC NDEBELE TO THE JOB IN LIGHT OF
CONTINUING SENSITIVITIES TO THE ATROCITIES COMMITTED IN
MATABELELAND BY THE NORTH KOREAN TRAINED, ETHNIC SHONA
FIFTH BRIGADE IN THE EARLY 1980'S. NKOMO, HOWEVER, IS
NOT VIEWED AS A CREDIBLE NDEBELE REPRESENTATIVE IN
MATABELELAND. HE IS ALSO IN THE LEAST SENSITIVE AND
MOST UNDER-FUNDED OF THE SECURITY MINISTRIES.

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COMMENT
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9. (C) THE COMMENT WE HAVE HEARD MOST OFTEN ABOUT THE
NEW CABINET IS THAT IT IS A MIXED BAG. IT LOOKS
CREDIBLE, PARTICULARLY IN THE PERSONS OF SIMBA MAKONI
AND NKOSANA MOYO WHO WILL BE ATTRACTIVE AMBASSADORS FROM
ZIMBABWE TO THE WORLD. THERE IS TALENT IN KEY AREAS AND
PATRONAGE IN MANY OTHERS. NEVERTHELESS, THEY ARE ALL
TAKING ORDERS FROM PRESIDENT MUGABE, MEANING THAT WE
WILL SEE THE SAME RUINOUS POLICIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF YEARS. SOME OF OUR CONTACTS FEAR THAT THE NEW
CABINET IS COMPOSED OF "PLACE HOLDERS," PEOPLE WHO WILL
KEEP THE SEATS WARM UNTIL THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS OF
2002 AND THE POTENTIAL RETURN OF SOME OF THE OLD GUARD.
THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WE DO NOT SEE A SUFFICIENT
DEPARTURE IN THE NEW LINE-UP FROM THE PROBLEMS THAT HAVE
CHARACTERIZED THE GOVERNMENT TO DATE.

IRVING

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