wikileaks ico  Home papers ico  Cables mirror and Afghan War Diary privacy policy Privacy
Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
00HARARE3460
2000-06-23 13:50:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Harare
Cable title:  

DESPITE STIFF COMPETITION, POTENTIAL FOR

Tags:  PGOV PREL ELAB PINR ZI 
pdf how-to read a cable
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

231350Z Jun 00


                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ3095

PAGE 01        HARARE  03460  01 OF 07  231346Z 
ACTION AF-00    

INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   ACQ-00   CIAE-00  DINT-00  DODE-00  
      DOTE-00  WHA-00   SRPP-00  DS-00    EB-00    EUR-00   FAAE-00  
      FBIE-00  VC-00    H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   LAB-01   L-00     
      VCE-00   AC-01    NSAE-00  OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00    
      PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SP-00    USIE-00  PMB-00   DSCC-00  
      DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00     /007W
                  ------------------664AAA  231347Z /38    
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6401
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
DEPT OF LABOR WASHDC PRIORITY
DEPTTREAS WASHDC PRIORITY
USDOC WASHDC PRIORITY
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY
						C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 07 HARARE 003460 

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF PDAS NANCY POWELL, AF DAS WITNEY SCHNEIDMAN,
AND AF/S - ARLENE RENDER

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH

DOL FOR ILAB/ROBERT SHEPARD

TREASURY FOR OASIA/RALYEA AND NATAN EPSTEIN

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 03460 01 OF 07 231346Z
USDOC FOR DHENKE-ROGERS

LONDON FOR PFLAUMER

PARIS FOR WILLIAMS

PASS USAID WASHDC FOR AFR/SA - NAN NEWMAN, OTI - MARC
SCOTT, AND A/AID - RICHARD MCCALL

PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/22/2000
TAGS: PGOV PREL ELAB PINR ZI
SUBJECT: DESPITE STIFF COMPETITION, POTENTIAL FOR
VIOLENCE IN SOME AREAS, AND EXPECTED VOTE RIGGING, MDC
LIKELY TO WIN ABOUT 60 SEATS

REF: HARARE 3382

CLASSIFIED BY LABOFF SHAWN THORNE FOR REASONS 1.5 (B)
AND (D).



1. (C) SUMMARY: ON THE EVE OF THE JUNE 24-25
PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS, THIS CABLE OFFERS POST'S
PREDICTIONS FOR HOTSPOTS AND TOUGH RACES AMONG
CONSTITUENCIES IN ZIMBABWE'S TEN PROVINCES. THE MDC IS
EXPECTED TO FARE VERY WELL IN MOST PROVINCES, WITH ITS
TOUGHEST CHALLENGE COMING FROM THE TRADITIONAL ZANU-PF
STRONGHOLDS OF THE "THREE MASHONALANDS" (MASHONALAND
CENTRAL, EAST, AND WEST), AND MASVINGO. POST PREDICTS A
WIN OF ABOUT 60 SEATS FOR THE MDC, ALTHOUGH OPPOSITION
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 03 HARARE 03460 01 OF 07 231346Z
LEADERS HAVE TOLD US THEY EXPECT TO WALK AWAY WITH 80-85
CONSTITUENCIES. LIKELY VOTE RIGGING CLEARLY WOULD AFFECT
THOSE NUMBERS. WHILE WE EXPECT THE ELECTION WEEKEND TO
BE REASONABLY QUIET, THE POTENTIAL FOR VIOLENCE WILL
INCREASE GREATLY IN THE JUNE 26-28 PERIOD, AS RESULTS
FROM EACH CONSTITUENCY ARE ANNOUNCED. IN THE RURAL
AREAS, MUGABE ALMOST CERTAINLY WILL GIVE WAR VETERANS
THE GREEN LIGHT TO SEEK REVENGE AGAINST COMMERCIAL
FARMERS, THEIR EMPLOYEES, AND COMMUNAL RESIDENTS SHOULD
THE RURAL VOTE NOT GO ZANU-PF'S WAY. END SUMMARY.



--------------------------


VIOLENCE DURING ELECTIONS


--------------------------





2. (C) ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR VIOLENCE IN THE CITIES
AND ON OCCUPIED FARMS AFTER THE ELECTIONS IS HIGH, POST
EXPECTS JUNE 24 AND 25 TO BE REASONABLY QUIET DAYS AT
THE POLLS, WITH ONLY ISOLATED SKIRMISHES BETWEEN RIVAL
PARTIES OCCURRING IN SOME HOTSPOTS. THE ZIMBABWE
REPUBLIC POLICE INTENDS TO DEPLOY 30,000 OFFICERS TO THE
COUNTRY'S 4,000 POLLING STATIONS OVER THE VOTING
WEEKEND, AND ARMED MILITARY PERSONNEL ALSO ARE EXPECTED
TO BE VISIBLE. DESPITE SUCH DETERRENTS, SEVERAL HOTSPOTS
COULD SEE OUTBREAKS OF FIGHTING, PARTICULARLY IN THE
HIGH-DENSITY SUBURBS AND OCCUPIED FARMING AREAS.
FOLLOWING ARE SOME CONSTITUENCIES WHERE VIOLENCE IS MORE
LIKELY TO OCCUR:

-- BUDIRIRO, HARARE PROVINCE: A HIGH-DENSITY SUBURB AND
HOME TO WAR VETERANS' LEADER CHENJERAI "HITLER" HUNZVI'S
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 04 HARARE 03460 01 OF 07 231346Z
MEDICAL OFFICES, WHERE MDC SUPPORTERS ALLEGEDLY HAVE
BEEN TORTURED.

-- CHITUNGWIZA AND HIGHFIELD, HARARE PROVINCE: TWO OF
THE CAPITAL'S LARGEST HIGH-DENSITY SUBURBS.

-- PLUMTREE, BULAWAYO PROVINCE: A LARGE PERI-URBAN AREA
ON THE BOTSWANA BORDER.

-- KWEKWE, MIDLANDS: TERRITORY OF MINISTER OF JUSTICE
AND PARLIAMENTARY AFFAIRS EMMERSON MNANGAGWA, A ZANU-PF
HARD-LINER WHO HAS FULLY EMBRACED PRESIDENT MUGABE'S
CAMPAIGN STRATEGY OF VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION.

-- THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN MASHONALAND EAST: WEDZA,
MUTOKO NORTH, MUTOKO SOUTH, MUDZI, MUREHWA NORTH,
MUREHWA SOUTH, GOROMONZI, AND CHIKOMBA. THESE ARE
COMMERCIAL FARMING AREAS HEAVILY OCCUPIED BY MILITANT
WAR VETERANS AND OTHER ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS. MDC PRESIDENT
MORGAN TSVANGIRAI HAS DECLARED THESE "NO-GO" AREAS FOR
CAMPAIGNING MDC CANDIDATES, AND INCIDENTS OF VIOLENCE
AGAINST FARM WORKERS -- AS WELL AS THREATS OF PUNISHMENT
IF MDC WINS HERE -- ARE EXTREMELY NUMEROUS.

CONFIDENTIAL

CONFIDENTIAL PTQ3098

PAGE 01 HARARE 03460 02 OF 07 231347Z
ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 DINT-00 DODE-00
DOTE-00 WHA-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00 FAAE-00
FBIE-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 LAB-01 L-00
VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00
PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00
DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /007W


--------------------------

664AC0 231347Z /38
P 231350Z JUN 00
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6402
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
DEPT OF LABOR WASHDC PRIORITY
DEPTTREAS WASHDC PRIORITY
USDOC WASHDC PRIORITY
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 07 HARARE 003460

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF PDAS NANCY POWELL, AF DAS WITNEY SCHNEIDMAN,
AND AF/S - ARLENE RENDER

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH

DOL FOR ILAB/ROBERT SHEPARD

TREASURY FOR OASIA/RALYEA AND NATAN EPSTEIN

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 03460 02 OF 07 231347Z
USDOC FOR DHENKE-ROGERS

LONDON FOR PFLAUMER

PARIS FOR WILLIAMS

PASS USAID WASHDC FOR AFR/SA - NAN NEWMAN, OTI - MARC
SCOTT, AND A/AID - RICHARD MCCALL

PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/22/2000
TAGS: PGOV PREL ELAB PINR ZI
SUBJECT: DESPITE STIFF COMPETITION, POTENTIAL FOR
VIOLENCE IN SOME AREAS, AND EXPECTED VOTE RIGGING, MDC
LIKELY TO WIN ABOUT 60 SEATS



--------------------------


PREDICTIONS FOR EACH PROVINCE


--------------------------





3. (C) IN POST'S VIEW, THE ELECTION BATTLE IS LIKELY TO
CENTER ON THE MDC'S EFFORTS TO WIN 76 SEATS AND SECURE A
SIMPLE MAJORITY IN THE 150-SEAT PARLIAMENT. THE RACE
WILL BE CLOSE, BUT IN THE END, WE PREDICT THE MDC
PROBABLY WILL FALL SHORT OF THE 76. (OF COURSE, IN THE
CASE OF RAMPANT RIGGING OR BALLOT BOX STUFFING, ALL BETS
ARE OFF.) THE FOLLOWING IS A BREAKDOWN OF OUR
PREDICTIONS BY PROVINCE, INCLUDING SOME NOTES ON TOUGH
RACES IN PARTICULAR CONSTITUENCIES.

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 03 HARARE 03460 02 OF 07 231347Z


4. (C) HARARE (19 SEATS): THE MDC IS EXPECTED TO WIN A
LARGE MAJORITY OF CONSTITUENCIES WITH VOTES FROM
WORKERS, UNEMPLOYED YOUTH, THE BUSINESS COMMUNITY (WHITE
AND BLACK), AND OTHER WELL INFORMED ZIMBABWEANS WHO
BLAME THE RULING PARTY FOR THE COLLAPSE OF ZIMBABWE'S
ECONOMY.

-- IN HARARE NORTH, THOUGH, THE INDEPENDENT CANDIDATE
CHESTER MHENDE IS FAVORED TO WIN OVER THE ZANU-PF AND
MDC CANDIDATES. (TRUDY STEVENSON, THE MDC NOMINEE, IS A
CONTROVERSIAL FIGURE AND NOT A NATIVE-BORN ZIMBABWEAN;
SHE MAY HAVE DIFFICULTY GARNERING VOTES.)

-- HARARE SOUTH ALSO IS EXPECTED TO BE A TOUGH RACE
BETWEEN INCUMBENT MARGARET DONGO, PRESIDENT OF THE
ZIMBABWE UNION OF DEMOCRATS AND CURRENTLY THE ONLY
INDEPENDENT PARLIAMENTARIAN, ZANU-PF CANDIDATE VIVIAN
MWASHITA, AND MDC CHALLENGER GABRIEL CHAIBVA. THE
OUTCOME IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT; DONGO HAS STOOD THE
TEST OF TIME IN HER CONSTITUENCY, RETAINS SUBSTANTIAL
POPULARITY, BUT HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT MARGINALIZED ON THE
NATIONAL POLITICAL SCENE. SHE HAS COMPLAINED
VOCIFEROUSLY, HOWEVER, THAT AS A RESULT OF THE REDRAWING
OF THE HARARE SOUTH BOUNDARIES BY THE DELIMITATION
COMMISSION, ABOUT 5,000 SOLDIERS ON A NEARBY MILITARY
BASE NOW ARE REGISTERED TO VOTE IN HER DISTRICT. DONGO
IS WORRIED THAT THE MILITARY VOTES (EITHER GENUINE OR
DOCTORED BY THE RULING PARTY) COULD SWING THE ELECTION
IN FAVOR OF MWASHITA. THE MDC ALSO IS EXTREMELY POPULAR
THROUGHOUT THE HARARE CONSTITUENCIES, AND CHAIBVA, WHILE
NOT WELL KNOWN, CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 04 HARARE 03460 02 OF 07 231347Z

-- MDC CANDIDATES ARE EXPECTED TO WIN IN THE INFAMOUS
CONSTITUENCIES OF BUDIRIRO (HOME OF HUNZVI'S SURGERY),
AND CHITUNGWIZA (HARARE'S MOST CROWDED HIGH DENSITY
SUBURB AND SITE OF FREQUENT VIOLENT CLASHES).



5. (C) BULAWAYO (8 SEATS), MATABELELAND NORTH (7 SEATS),
AND MATABELELAND SOUTH (8 SEATS): THE MDC IS EXPECTED TO
WIN A LARGE MAJORITY OF THE SEATS IN THESE PROVINCES
DOMINATED BY THE MARGINALIZED NDEBELE ETHNIC GROUP. THE
MDC IS FIELDING A LOT OF UNKNOWN CANDIDATES IN THESE
PROVINCES, THOUGH, AND MANY INDEPENDENT CANDIDATES ALSO
ARE LOOKING TO SNATCH VOTES FROM THE RULING PARTY. FOR
THEIR PART, MDC LEADERS ARE CONFIDENT THAT THE NDEBELES
WILL SUPPORT THEM OVER INDEPENDENT CANDIDATES IN A
PROTEST VOTE AGAINST THE HUMAN RIGHTS ATROCITIES
SANCTIONED BY PRESIDENT MUGABE DURING THE MID-1980S. IN
BOTH BULAWAYO SOUTH AND MAKOBA, HOWEVER, TWO POPULAR
"INDEPENDENT" NDEBELE CANDIDATES STAND A GOOD CHANCE OF
BEATING BOTH THE ZANU-PF AND MDC NOMINEES. CHARLES MPOFU
(BULAWAYO SOUTH -- SEE BELOW) AND MATSON HLALO (MAKOBA -
- SEE BELOW) ARE FORMER ZANU-PF'ERS WHO DEFECTED FROM
THE RULING PARTY AFTER THE 1999 BULAWAYO CITY COUNCIL
ELECTIONS AND STILL RETAIN SUBSTANTIAL POPULARITY IN

CONFIDENTIAL

CONFIDENTIAL PTQ3101

PAGE 01 HARARE 03460 03 OF 07 231347Z
ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 DINT-00 DODE-00
DOTE-00 WHA-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00 FAAE-00
FBIE-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 LAB-01 L-00
VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00
PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00
DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /007W


--------------------------

664ACA 231347Z /38
P 231350Z JUN 00
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6403
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
DEPT OF LABOR WASHDC PRIORITY
DEPTTREAS WASHDC PRIORITY
USDOC WASHDC PRIORITY
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 07 HARARE 003460

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF PDAS NANCY POWELL, AF DAS WITNEY SCHNEIDMAN,
AND AF/S - ARLENE RENDER

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH

DOL FOR ILAB/ROBERT SHEPARD

TREASURY FOR OASIA/RALYEA AND NATAN EPSTEIN

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 03460 03 OF 07 231347Z
USDOC FOR DHENKE-ROGERS

LONDON FOR PFLAUMER

PARIS FOR WILLIAMS

PASS USAID WASHDC FOR AFR/SA - NAN NEWMAN, OTI - MARC
SCOTT, AND A/AID - RICHARD MCCALL

PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/22/2000
TAGS: PGOV PREL ELAB PINR ZI
SUBJECT: DESPITE STIFF COMPETITION, POTENTIAL FOR
VIOLENCE IN SOME AREAS, AND EXPECTED VOTE RIGGING, MDC
LIKELY TO WIN ABOUT 60 SEATS

THEIR AREAS.

-- BULAWAYO SOUTH: THIS WILL BE A VERY DIFFICULT RACE
BETWEEN INDEPENDENT CHARLES MPOFU AND DAVID COLTART, THE
MDC SECRETARY FOR LEGAL AFFAIRS AND A PROMINENT ATTORNEY
AND HUMAN RIGHTS ACTIVIST. THE ZANU-PF CANDIDATE,
CALLISTUS NDLOVU, IS NOT EXPECTED TO FARE WELL, AS HE IS
A KNOWN CRITIC OF FORMER VICE PRESIDENT AND NDEBELE
LEADER JOSHUA NKOMO.

-- MAKOBA: THIS ALSO WILL BE A TOUGH RACE BETWEEN
INDEPENDENT MATSON HLALO, A WELL-KNOWN NDEBELE
POLITICIAN, POPULAR ZANU-PF CANDIDATE SITHEMBISO NYONI
(A MINISTER OF STATE IN THE OFFICE OF THE VICE
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 03 HARARE 03460 03 OF 07 231347Z
PRESIDENT), AND LITTLE KNOWN MDC CANDIDATE THOKOZANI
KHUPE.

-- NKULUMANE: A HIGH PROFILE AND DIFFICULT RACE WILL
TAKE PLACE BETWEEN MINISTER OF HOME AFFAIRS DUMISO
DABENGWA (AT ONE TIME A DISAFFECTED ZAPU DETAINEE), AND
MDC VICE PRESIDENT GIBSON SIBANDA. BOTH ARE NDEBELE, AND
BOTH ENJOY SUPPORT IN THE CONSTITUENCY. SIBANDA IS
FAVORED TO WIN, THOUGH, BOTH BECAUSE OF HIS TRADE UNION
ROOTS AND ASSOCIATION WITH THE MDC, AND BECAUSE OF
DABENGWA'S IMAGE AS A LAME DUCK IN MUGABE'S CABINET WHO
HAS TURNED HIS BACK ON HIS PEOPLE. IF SIBANDA WINS, IT
WILL BE A VERY BIG VICTORY FOR THE MDC.

-- BULAWAYO NORTH: FORMER BULAWAYO MAYOR JOSHUA MAHLINGA
(ALSO AN ADVOCATE FOR THE RIGHTS OF THE DISABLED), FACES
MDC SECRETARY GENERAL WELSHMAN NCUBE IN WHAT WILL LIKELY
BE A VERY CLOSE RACE. NCUBE, A PROFESSOR OF LAW AT THE
UNIVERSITY OF ZIMBABWE, RESIDES IN HARARE, HOWEVER, AND
MAY NOT BE SEEN AS A MAN FROM THE COMMUNITY.



6. (C) MANICALAND (14 SEATS): THE MDC IS EXPECTED TO WIN
AT LEAST HALF THE SEATS HERE, ALTHOUGH A FEW LIKELY WILL
BE LOST TO MORE POPULAR INDEPENDENT CANDIDATES. SEVERAL
ZANU-PF'ERS WHO, ALTHOUGH POPULAR IN THEIR
CONSTITUENCIES, LOST IN THE PRIMARIES TO CANDIDATES
SUBMITTED AT THE LAST MINUTE BY THE RULING PARTY
POLITBURO, ARE NOW RUNNING ON INDEPENDENT TICKETS. SOME,
LIKE FORMER PARLIAMENTARY CHIEF WHIP MOSES MVENGE IN
MUTARE CENTRAL, LAZARUS NZARAYEBANI IN MUTARE SOUTH, AND
SHEPHERD MUKWEKWEZEKE IN MUTARE WEST, FORMERLY WERE
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 04 HARARE 03460 03 OF 07 231347Z
OUTSPOKEN ZANU-PF PARLIAMENTARIANS WHOM THE POLITBURO
EFFECTIVELY SIDELINED FOR CRITICIZING RULING PARTY
POLICIES. THEY AND OTHER INDEPENDENT CANDIDATES ARE
POPULAR IN MANICALAND, A PROVINCE KNOWN FOR ITS LONG-
TIME SUPPORT OF INDEPENDENTS. MDC NONETHELESS EXPECTS TO
FARE EXTREMELY WELL IN MANICALAND, PARTLY BECAUSE THOSE
VOTES THAT THE RULING PARTY DOES RECEIVE ARE LIKELY TO
BE SPLIT BETWEEN THE NEW "ZANU-PF INDEPENDENTS" AND
FORMAL RULING PARTY CANDIDATES. CONSTITUENCIES IN
MANICALAND WHERE THE OUTCOME LOOKS REASONABLY CERTAIN AT
THIS POINT INCLUDE:

-- BUHERA NORTH, WHERE MORGAN TSVANGIRAI IS PITTED
AGAINST MANICALAND GOVERNOR KENNETH MANYONDA. ALTHOUGH
WELL RESPECTED, MANYONDA ALMOST CERTAINLY WILL NOT BE
ABLE TO COMPETE WITH TSVANGIRAI'S IMMENSE NATIONAL
POPULARITY.

-- MAKONI NORTH, WHERE ZANU-PF INCUMBENT DIDIMUS MUTASA,
THE RULING PARTY'S SECRETARY FOR ADMINISTRATION, IS
EXPECTED TO DEFEAT THE MDC'S LITTLE KNOWN V.T. ZISWA.

-- CHIPINGE NORTH, WHERE ZANU-PF'S GIDDEON GOKO LIKELY
WILL DEFEAT THE MDC'S MATHIAS MLAMBO.

CONFIDENTIAL

CONFIDENTIAL PTQ3104

PAGE 01 HARARE 03460 04 OF 07 231347Z
ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 DINT-00 DODE-00
DOTE-00 WHA-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00 FAAE-00
FBIE-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 LAB-01 L-00
VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00
PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00
DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /007W


--------------------------

664AD6 231347Z /38
P 231350Z JUN 00
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6404
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
DEPT OF LABOR WASHDC PRIORITY
DEPTTREAS WASHDC PRIORITY
USDOC WASHDC PRIORITY
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 04 OF 07 HARARE 003460

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF PDAS NANCY POWELL, AF DAS WITNEY SCHNEIDMAN,
AND AF/S - ARLENE RENDER

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH

DOL FOR ILAB/ROBERT SHEPARD

TREASURY FOR OASIA/RALYEA AND NATAN EPSTEIN

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 03460 04 OF 07 231347Z
USDOC FOR DHENKE-ROGERS

LONDON FOR PFLAUMER

PARIS FOR WILLIAMS

PASS USAID WASHDC FOR AFR/SA - NAN NEWMAN, OTI - MARC
SCOTT, AND A/AID - RICHARD MCCALL

PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/22/2000
TAGS: PGOV PREL ELAB PINR ZI
SUBJECT: DESPITE STIFF COMPETITION, POTENTIAL FOR
VIOLENCE IN SOME AREAS, AND EXPECTED VOTE RIGGING, MDC
LIKELY TO WIN ABOUT 60 SEATS



7. (C) MIDLANDS (17 SEATS): THE MDC IS LIKELY TO WIN
MORE THAN HALF OF THE SEATS IN THIS PROVINCE,
PARTICULARLY AMONG THE NDEBELE CONSTITUENCIES THAT
COMPRISE ABOUT HALF OF ALL MIDLANDS SEATS. THE FOLLOWING
TWO CONSTITUENCIES, HOWEVER, ARE EXPECTED TO GO TO ZANU-
PF:

-- KWEKWE: MINISTRY OF JUSTICE AND PARLIAMENTARY AFFAIRS
EMMERSON MNANGAGWA IS FAVORED TO BEAT UNKNOWN MDC
CANDIDATE BLESSING CHEBUNDO. THE MINISTER IS A
NATIONALLY RECOGNIZED ZANU-PF HARD-LINER AND ONE OF
ZIMBABWE'S MOST POWERFUL FIGURES, AND HE USED HIS
INFLUENCE TO SECURE FOOD, INFRASTRUCTURE, AND OTHER
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 03 HARARE 03460 04 OF 07 231347Z
ITEMS OF PATRONAGE FOR HIS CONSTITUENTS OVER THE YEARS.
UNDER MNANGAGWA'S WATCHFUL EYE, VIOLENT CLASHES HAVE
OCCURRED FREQUENTLY BETWEEN RULING PARTY AND MDC
SUPPORTERS IN KWEKWE, AND THE MINISTER IS EXPECTED TO GO
TO ANY LENGTH TO RETAIN HIS PARLIAMENTARY SEAT.

-- MKOBA: THE POPULAR ZANU-PF CANDIDATE FREDERICK SHAVA
IS FAVORED TO BEAT MDC UNKNOWN STANLEY MAKWEMBERE.



8. (C) MASVINGO (14 SEATS): THIS WILL BE A TOUGHER
PROVINCE FOR THE MDC, WITH THE VOTES SPLIT ABOUT EVENLY
BETWEEN THE MDC AND ZANU-PF. SEVERAL OF THE RULING
PARTY'S MOST PROMINENT FIGURES ARE DEFENDING THEIR
TERRITORIES IN MASVINGO, AND MANY OF THE CONSTITUENCIES
WILL BE HOTLY CONTESTED.

-- MASVINGO CENTRAL: ZANU-PF INCUMBENT DZIKIMAI
MAVHAIRE, WHOSE OUTSPOKEN CRITICISM OF PRESIDENT MUGABE
RESULTED IN HIS SUSPENSION FROM PARLIAMENT BETWEEN 1997
AND 1999, IS HEAVILY FAVORED TO BEAT MDC CANDIDATE SILAS
MANGONO.

-- MASVINGO SOUTH: EDDISON ZVOGBO, A MODERATE BUT SENIOR
ZANU-PF'ER AND MINISTER OF STATE IN THE OFFICE OF THE
PRESIDENT, ALSO IS HEAVILY FAVORED TO BEAT MDC'ER
ZACHARIA RIOGA.

-- MASVINGO NORTH: DESPITE HIS NATIONAL PERSONA AND
SENIOR POSITION IN THE PARTY, MINISTER OF FOREIGN
AFFAIRS STANISLAUS MUDENGE (WHOSE POPULARITY AMONG HIS
CONSTITUENTS HAS DECLINED SIGNIFICANTLY IN RECENT
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 04 HARARE 03460 04 OF 07 231347Z
YEARS), WILL HAVE A TOUGH BATTLE AGAINST MDC CANDIDATE
JOSEPH MUTEMA.

-- GUTU NORTH: VICE PRESIDENT SIMON MUZENDA FACES MDC
LOCAL CRISPA MUSONI. ALTHOUGH THE VICE PRESIDENT'S NAME
IS MUCH BETTER KNOWN, HE IS REGARDED BY MOST AS TOO OLD
AND OUT OF TOUCH TO BE EFFECTIVE IN OFFICE, AND IN
RECENT YEARS HE HAS FAILED TO BRING THE PATRONAGE TO
GUTU NORTH THAT HIS CONSTITUENTS HAVE COME TO EXPECT.
DURING A RECENT CAMPAIGN RALLY, MUZENDA LEVIED HARSH,
BELITTLING REMARKS AT POPULAR FELLOW PARTY MEMBERS
MAVHAIRE AND ZVOGBO, BOTH OF WHOM FAILED TO ATTEND THE
VICE PRESIDENT'S RALLY BECAUSE THEY WERE BUSY
CAMPAIGNING IN THEIR OWN CONSTITUENCIES. WHETHER THIS
CRITICISM HAD ANY NEGATIVE EFFECT -- ON ANY OF THE THREE
CANDIDATES -- REMAINS TO BE SEEN. THE VICE PRESIDENT
ALSO MAY SUFFER THE CONSEQUENCES OF TALKING DOWN TO
VOTERS BY TELLING THEM IN A RECENT CAMPAIGN SPEECH THAT
THEY MUST SUPPORT THE ZANU-PF CANDIDATE, EVEN IF THE
PARTY RUNS "A BABOON."



9. (C) MASHONALAND EAST, WEST, AND CENTRAL (34 SEATS):
DESPITE WIDESPREAD VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION, WE EXPECT
THE MDC TO WIN SOME SEATS IN THESE AREAS, ALTHOUGH NOT

CONFIDENTIAL

CONFIDENTIAL PTQ3106

PAGE 01 HARARE 03460 05 OF 07 231348Z
ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 DINT-00 DODE-00
DOTE-00 WHA-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00 FAAE-00
FBIE-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 LAB-01 L-00
VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00
PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00
DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /007W


--------------------------

664AE6 231348Z /38
P 231350Z JUN 00
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6405
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
DEPT OF LABOR WASHDC PRIORITY
DEPTTREAS WASHDC PRIORITY
USDOC WASHDC PRIORITY
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 05 OF 07 HARARE 003460

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF PDAS NANCY POWELL, AF DAS WITNEY SCHNEIDMAN,
AND AF/S - ARLENE RENDER

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH

DOL FOR ILAB/ROBERT SHEPARD

TREASURY FOR OASIA/RALYEA AND NATAN EPSTEIN

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 03460 05 OF 07 231348Z
USDOC FOR DHENKE-ROGERS

LONDON FOR PFLAUMER

PARIS FOR WILLIAMS

PASS USAID WASHDC FOR AFR/SA - NAN NEWMAN, OTI - MARC
SCOTT, AND A/AID - RICHARD MCCALL

PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/22/2000
TAGS: PGOV PREL ELAB PINR ZI
SUBJECT: DESPITE STIFF COMPETITION, POTENTIAL FOR
VIOLENCE IN SOME AREAS, AND EXPECTED VOTE RIGGING, MDC
LIKELY TO WIN ABOUT 60 SEATS

THE MAJORITY. THE "MASHONALANDS" ARE ZANU-PF
STRONGHOLDS, WHERE FARM OCCUPATIONS AND THE WAR
VETERANS' CAMPAIGN OF VIOLENCE HAVE BEEN THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE. NUMEROUS REPORTS HAVE SURFACED FROM THE
REGION THAT CIO AGENTS AND MEMBERS OF MUGABE'S
PRESIDENTIAL GUARD WERE BUSED IN TO LEAD THE WAR
VETERANS AND OTHER HIRED THUGS IN THE "RE-EDUCATION" OF
RURAL RESIDENTS, INCLUDING FORCED ATTENDANCE AT
POLITICAL RALLIES, PROPERTY DESTRUCTION, BEATINGS, AND
MURDERS. IN THE MIDST OF THESE SUBVERSIVE TACTICS, ZANU-
PF INCUMBENTS AND SENIOR POLITICIANS, INCLUDING
PRESIDENT MUGABE, HAVE CAMPAIGNED HERE VIGOROUSLY IN
RECENT WEEKS.

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 03 HARARE 03460 05 OF 07 231348Z


10. (C) MEANWHILE, SAFETY CONCERNS AND VOCIFEROUS
THREATS FROM THE WAR VETERANS HAVE PREVENTED THE MDC
FROM CAMPAIGNING IN THE REGION, WITH TSVANGIRAI
DECLARING THE MOST VIOLENT CONSTITUENCIES "NO GO" AREAS
FOR HIS PARTY'S CANDIDATES. ALTHOUGH THE MDC ASSERTS
THAT MASHONALAND RESIDENTS ARE KEEPING THEIR LOYALTY TO
THE PARTY HIDDEN AND WILL VOTE THEIR CONSCIENCE ON
ELECTION DAY, IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT THE STATE-SPONSORED
VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL. WE EXPECT
MANY FARM WORKERS AND RURAL RESIDENTS TO SIMPLY ABSTAIN
FROM VOTING, WHILE OTHERS, FEARING THAT THEIR BALLOT
WILL NOT BE SECRET, WILL VOTE ZANU-PF. ECONOMIC DECLINE
AND DISGUST WITH THE RULING PARTY'S SCARE TACTICS
PROBABLY WILL PROMPT VOTERS TO HAND THE MDC QUITE A FEW
OF THE 34 SEATS IN THE REGION, BUT CERTAINLY NOT A
MAJORITY.



11. (C) FOLLOWING ARE SOME HIGH PROFILE RACES IN THE
"MASHONALANDS":

-- BINDURA, MASH. CENTRAL: THE INFAMOUS PROVINCIAL
GOVERNOR, BORDER GEZI, RESPONSIBLE FOR A SUBSTANTIAL
NUMBER OF SERIOUS HUMAN RIGHTS VIOLATIONS AND DUBBED
ZANU-PF'S CAMPAIGN "MASCOT" BY THE INDEPENDENT PRESS,
HAS CAMPAIGNED VIGOROUSLY FOR THE RULING PARTY. GEZI HAS
PERSONALLY SPEARHEADED THE WAR VETERANS' REIGN OF TERROR
IN THE AREA. HIS ENORMOUS PERSONA IS FAVORED TO WIN OVER
LITTLE-KNOWN MDC CANDIDATE ELLIOT PFEBVE.

-- MAZOWE EAST, MASH. CENTRAL: MINISTER OF INFORMATION,
POSTS, AND TELECOMMUNICATIONS CHEN CHIMUNTENGWENDE IS
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 04 HARARE 03460 05 OF 07 231348Z
WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT FIGHT AGAINST POPULAR MDC
CANDIDATE SHEPHERD MUSHONGA.

-- GURUVE SOUTH, MASH. CENTRAL: THIS WILL BE A VERY
CLOSE RACE BETWEEN THE POLISHED AND POPULAR DEPUTY
MINISTER OF MINES, ENVIRONMENT, AND TOURISM, EDWARD
CHINDORI-CHININGA, AND THE EQUALLY POPULAR DEPUTY
SECRETARY GENERAL OF THE MDC, GIFT CHIMANIKIRE (WHO ALSO

SIPDIS
IS HEAD OF THE PTC WORKERS' UNION). BOTH WERE BORN IN
GURUVE SOUTH AND HAVE RUN VERY SUCCESSFUL CAMPAIGNS.

-- SHAMVA, MASH. CENTRAL: DEPUTY FOREIGN MINISTER
NICHOLAS GOCHE, WHOSE POPULARITY HAS WANED IN RECENT
YEARS, PROBABLY WILL MANAGE TO RETAIN HIS SEAT, FENDING
OFF A DIFFICULT CHALLENGE FROM POPULAR LOCAL MDC
CANDIDATE JOSEPH MASHINYA.

-- MARONDERA EAST, MASH. EAST: MINISTER OF NATIONAL
SECURITY SYDNEY SEKERAMAYI PROBABLY WILL WIN OVER LITTLE
KNOWN MDC CANDIDATE DIDIMUS MUNHENZVA -- NOT BECAUSE OF
HIS POPULARITY, BUT MORE BECAUSE OF HIS ROLE AS THE HEAD
OF ZIMBABWE'S SINISTER CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE ORGANIZATION
(WHOSE AGENTS HAVE BEEN INTIMIDATING VOTERS IN HIS AREA
FOR SEVERAL MONTHS).

CONFIDENTIAL

CONFIDENTIAL PTQ3110

PAGE 01 HARARE 03460 06 OF 07 231348Z
ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 DINT-00 DODE-00
DOTE-00 WHA-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00 FAAE-00
FBIE-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 LAB-01 L-00
VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00
PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00
DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /007W


--------------------------

664AF9 231348Z /38
P 231350Z JUN 00
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6406
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
DEPT OF LABOR WASHDC PRIORITY
DEPTTREAS WASHDC PRIORITY
USDOC WASHDC PRIORITY
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 06 OF 07 HARARE 003460

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF PDAS NANCY POWELL, AF DAS WITNEY SCHNEIDMAN,
AND AF/S - ARLENE RENDER

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH

DOL FOR ILAB/ROBERT SHEPARD

TREASURY FOR OASIA/RALYEA AND NATAN EPSTEIN

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 03460 06 OF 07 231348Z
USDOC FOR DHENKE-ROGERS

LONDON FOR PFLAUMER

PARIS FOR WILLIAMS

PASS USAID WASHDC FOR AFR/SA - NAN NEWMAN, OTI - MARC
SCOTT, AND A/AID - RICHARD MCCALL

PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/22/2000
TAGS: PGOV PREL ELAB PINR ZI
SUBJECT: DESPITE STIFF COMPETITION, POTENTIAL FOR
VIOLENCE IN SOME AREAS, AND EXPECTED VOTE RIGGING, MDC
LIKELY TO WIN ABOUT 60 SEATS



12. (C) MASHONALAND EAST IN PARTICULAR PROBABLY HAS THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR VIOLENCE DURING THE ELECTIONS.
ZANU-PF CANDIDATES ARE FAVORED TO WIN HERE AS A RESULT
OF THE WAR VETERANS' PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE TACTICS:

-- MUTOKO NORTH
-- MUTOKO SOUTH
-- WEDZA
-- MARONDERA WEST (NOTE: THE INDEPENDENT CANDIDATE, JOHN
TSIMBA, WHO FORMERLY BELONGED TO ZANU-PF MAY BEAT RUFARO

SIPDIS
GWANZURA, A NON-LOCAL CANDIDATE INSERTED BY THE RULING
PARTY POLITBURO AT THE LAST MINUTE. END NOTE.)
-- MUDZI
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 03 HARARE 03460 06 OF 07 231348Z
-- MUREHWA NORTH
-- MUREHWA SOUTH
-- GOROMONZI
-- CHIKOMBA, WHERE WAR VETERANS' LEADERS CHENJERAI
"HITLER" HUNZVI FACES POPULAR MDC CANDIDATE PETER
KAUNDA.



--------------------------


FACTORS WORKING IN THE MDC'S FAVOR


--------------------------





13. (C) VOTING FOR A PARTY, NOT AN INDIVIDUAL: THE
OVERRIDING SENTIMENT IN THE COUNTRY IS THAT ZIMBABWEANS
ARE VOTING FOR A PARTY MORE THAN THEY ARE CONSIDERING
THE INDIVIDUAL QUALIFICATIONS OF EACH CANDIDATE. THE
MDC'S SUPPORT STEMS FIRST AND FOREMOST FROM THE FACT
THAT IT PROMISES CHANGE, IN PARTICULAR ECONOMIC REFORM,
AND A NEW, MORE TRANSPARENT, AND MORE INCLUSIVE STYLE OF
GOVERNANCE. IN MANY CONSTITUENCIES, THE ZANU-PF
INCUMBENTS HAVE FAILED TO DELIVER ON THEIR PROMISES TO
THEIR CONSTITUENTS -- INDEED, MANY HARDLY SET FOOT IN
THE AREA OUTSIDE OF ELECTION SEASON. THE MDC ALSO HAS
BEEN CAREFUL TO CHOOSE CANDIDATES WHO ARE FROM THE AREAS
IN WHICH THEY'RE RUNNING AND ARE KNOWN AT LEAST TO THOSE
CONSTITUENTS, EVEN IF THEY HAVE NO HISTORY IN POLITICS.
AS A RESULT, EVEN LITTLE KNOWN MDC CANDIDATES STAND A
GOOD CHANCE IN MANY CASES OF UNSEATING FAMOUS (IN SOME
CASES INFAMOUS) ZANU-PF INCUMBENTS WHOSE POPULARITY HAS
WANED IN RECENT YEARS.



14. (C) RURAL VOTE SLIPPING AWAY FROM ZANU-PF: ONCE
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 04 HARARE 03460 06 OF 07 231348Z
BASTIONS OF RULING PARTY SUPPORT, THE RURAL AREAS NO
LONGER ARE SURE BETS FOR THE ZANU-PF INCUMBENTS. MANY
COMMUNAL RESIDENTS AND FARM WORKERS, WHO COMPRISE OVER
60 PERCENT OF ZIMBABWE'S 5.1 MILLION VOTERS, EITHER HAVE
LIVED OR WORKED IN CITIES THEMSELVES, OR HAVE RELATIVES
WHO WORK IN THE CITIES AND COMMUTE HOME OFTEN. AS A
RESULT, MDC LEADERS POINT OUT THAT RURAL RESIDENTS ARE
NO LONGER AS IGNORANT OF NATIONAL POLITICS AS THEY ONCE
WERE, AND INCREASINGLY THEY BLAME ZANU-PF FOR THE
DECLINE IN THEIR DISPOSABLE INCOME AND STANDARD OF
LIVING -- PARTICULARLY NOW THAT THE GOZ CAN NO LONGER
AFFORD TO MAINTAIN THE PATRONAGE SYSTEM THAT IT ONCE
ROBUSTLY MAINTAINED IN RURAL AREAS.



15. (C) ALREADY DISILLUSIONED WITH THE RULING PARTY,
RURAL RESIDENTS (PARTICULARLY IN THE "MASHONALANDS")
HAVE BEEN SUFFERING SINCE FEBRUARY FROM VIOLENT ATTACKS
AND SEVERE PSYCHOLOGICAL INTIMIDATION WHICH THEY KNOW
HAVE BEEN SANCTIONED BY MUGABE AND, IN MANY CASES,
ORGANIZED BY THEIR OWN LOCAL POLITICIANS. MDC LEADERS
TELL US THAT, IF MUGABE HAD HELD ELECTIONS IN APRIL OR
MAY, THE MDC WOULD HAVE LOST MANY OF THE RURAL
CONSTITUENCIES. NOW, ARGUES THE MDC, COMMUNAL RESIDENTS
AND PARTICULARLY FARM WORKERS SEE CLEARLY WHAT THE

CONFIDENTIAL

CONFIDENTIAL PTQ3111

PAGE 01 HARARE 03460 07 OF 07 231348Z
ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 DINT-00 DODE-00
DOTE-00 WHA-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00 FAAE-00
FBIE-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 LAB-01 L-00
VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00
PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00
DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /007W


--------------------------

664B01 231348Z /38
P 231350Z JUN 00
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6407
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
DEPT OF LABOR WASHDC PRIORITY
DEPTTREAS WASHDC PRIORITY
USDOC WASHDC PRIORITY
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 07 OF 07 HARARE 003460

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF PDAS NANCY POWELL, AF DAS WITNEY SCHNEIDMAN,
AND AF/S - ARLENE RENDER

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH

DOL FOR ILAB/ROBERT SHEPARD

TREASURY FOR OASIA/RALYEA AND NATAN EPSTEIN

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 03460 07 OF 07 231348Z
USDOC FOR DHENKE-ROGERS

LONDON FOR PFLAUMER

PARIS FOR WILLIAMS

PASS USAID WASHDC FOR AFR/SA - NAN NEWMAN, OTI - MARC
SCOTT, AND A/AID - RICHARD MCCALL

PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/22/2000
TAGS: PGOV PREL ELAB PINR ZI
SUBJECT: DESPITE STIFF COMPETITION, POTENTIAL FOR
VIOLENCE IN SOME AREAS, AND EXPECTED VOTE RIGGING, MDC
LIKELY TO WIN ABOUT 60 SEATS

RULING PARTY REPRESENTS, AND THEY WILL VOTE TO REJECT
THEIR ZANU-PF AGGRESSORS ON ELECTION WEEKEND. POST
BELIEVES THE MDC WILL WIN, AND SURPRISINGLY SO, A
HEALTHY NUMBER OF RURAL CONSTITUENCIES (INCLUDING SOME
IN THE "MASHONALANDS") AS A RESULT OF THE PARTY'S
ENERGETIC CAMPAIGNING IN THESE AREAS, AND AS A PROTEST
VOTE AGAINST STATE-SPONSORED INTIMIDATION. HOWEVER,
NEITHER THE MDC NOR POST BELIEVES THAT THE OPPOSITION
WILL SWEEP THE RURAL AREAS, EITHER BECAUSE OF CONTINUED
LOYALTY TO THE RULING PARTY, OR BECAUSE THE INTIMIDATION
HAS WORKED.



16. (C) "ZANU-PF INDEPENDENTS" SPLITTING THE VOTE:
ANOTHER SIGNAL OF THE RULING PARTY'S WANING SUPPORT IS
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 03 HARARE 03460 07 OF 07 231348Z
THE RECORD NUMBER OF INDEPENDENT CANDIDATES RUNNING IN
THIS ELECTION. OF 566 TOTAL CANDIDATES, A STUNNING 40
PERCENT (OR 226) REPRESENT VARIOUS INDEPENDENT PARTIES
OTHER THAN ZANU-PF AND THE MDC. IN MANY CASES, THESE
INDEPENDENTS ACTUALLY ARE FORMER ZANU-PF'ERS WHO LOST IN
THE PRIMARIES TO OTHER RULING PARTY CANDIDATES. THE
ZANU-PF POLITBURO REPORTEDLY SIDELINED SOME OF ITS MORE
OUTSPOKEN MEMBERS, APPOINTING ZANU-PF LOYALISTS TO
REPLACE THEM IN THEIR OWN CONSTITUENCIES. THE DISPLACED
POLITICIANS -- MANY OF WHOM STILL ENJOY WIDESPREAD
SUPPORT IN THEIR AREAS -- THEREFORE ARE RUNNING AS
INDEPENDENTS, AND ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE AWAY A
SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF VOTES THAT NORMALLY WOULD BE FOR
THE RULING PARTY. SOME POPULAR FORMER ZANU-PF'ERS NOW
RUNNING AS INDEPENDENTS INCLUDE CHESTER MHENDE IN HARARE
NORTH, MOSES MVENGE IN MUTARE CENTRAL, VESTER SITHOLE IN
CHIPINGE NORTH (MANICALAND), LAZARUS NZARAYEBANI IN
MUTARE SOUTH, SHEPHERD MUKWEKWEZEKE IN MUTARE WEST, AND
JOHN TSIMBA IN MARONDERA WEST. WHETHER THE PRESENCE OF
THESE "ZANU-PF INDEPENDENTS" WILL HELP THE MDC REMAINS
TO BE SEEN.



--------------------------


ELECTION RIGGING: THE BIG UNKNOWN


--------------------------





17. (C) IF THERE IS A LIMITED AMOUNT OF VOTE RIGGING, WE
EXPECT THE MDC TO GARNER ABOUT 60 SEATS -- MORE THAN THE
ONE-THIRD OF THE LEGISLATURE NECESSARY TO BLOCK
CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS AND APPROPRIATIONS BILLS. THE
RULING PARTY HAS DEMONSTRATED THE DRASTIC LENGTHS TO
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 04 HARARE 03460 07 OF 07 231348Z
WHICH IT IS WILLING TO GO TO HANG ON TO POWER. THE
PRIMARY DETERRENTS TO ELECTION RIGGING WILL BE THE
DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL MONITORS, AS WELL AS THE
CANDIDATES' POLLING AGENTS, WHOM ELECTION OFFICIALS ARE
SUPPOSED TO ALLOW TO REMAIN WITH THE BALLOT BOXES FROM
THE OPENING OF THE POLLS TO THE CONCLUSION OF THE COUNT.
ALTHOUGH DIPLOMATS WERE EVENTUALLY ACCREDITED, THE
ELECTION DIRECTORATE LIMITED THE NUMBER OF INTERNATIONAL
OBSERVERS IT WOULD ACCREDIT (INCLUDING DENYING NDI AND
IRI OBSERVER STATUS). IN THE END, WE EXPECT TO SEE A
TOTAL OF ABOUT 300 INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS ACTUALLY ON
THE GROUND. MEANWHILE, THE NUMBER OF DOMESTIC MONITORS
IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 16,000, DOWN FROM THE 20,0000
ORIGINALLY PLANNED. THESE ACCREDITATION PROBLEMS
CERTAINLY ARE NO ACCIDENT. WITH THE NUMBER OF WATCHFUL
EYES ON THE BALLOT BOXES GREATLY REDUCED, IT REMAINS TO
BE SEEN WHETHER THE RULING PARTY WILL BE ABLE TO TAMPER
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE ELECTION RESULTS.

MCDONALD

CONFIDENTIAL

>