ZIMBABWE'S COMMERCIAL FARMERS UNION SEEKS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 002865

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF, AF/S, AF/EPS
STATE PASS USAID FOR AFR/SA RCOHEN
STATE PASS USTR/RWHITTAKER
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH
LONDON FOR PFLAUMER

PARIS FOR BWILLIAMS
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 02865 01 OF 02 301518Z
PRETORIA FOR AG ATTACHE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/30/05
TAGS: EAGR ECON EAID PGOV ZI
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE'S COMMERCIAL FARMERS UNION SEEKS
U.S. SUPPORT FOR MULTILATERAL LENDING RESUMPTION


CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR MCDONALD, REASON 1.5 (B),
(D)

REFS: A) HARARE 2461, B)HARARE 2820


1. (C) ON MAY 30 AMBASSADOR, DCM, POL AND ECON
OFFICERS MET WITH REPRESENTATIVES (FORMER CFU
PRESIDENT NICK SWANEPOEL, AND FARMERS JOHN HAINES AND
PETER HENDERSON) OF THE COMMERCIAL FARMERS UNION
(CFU) WHO GAVE A READOUT ON RECENT CONFIDENTIAL
CFU/GOZ DISCUSSIONS AND NEGOTIATIONS ON LAND
INVASIONS AND LAND REDISTRIBUTION. THOUGH THEIR
EFFORTS ARE STILL VERY MUCH A WORK-IN-PROGRESS, GIVEN
THE CURRENT VOLATILE POLITICAL CLIMATE, THE THREE-MAN
TEAM LED BY SWANEPOEL (PRESIDENT MUGABE PERSONALLY
DIRECTED THAT SWANEPOEL SPEARHEAD THE NEGOTIATIONS,
SEE REF C) BELIEVES THAT THEY HAVE MADE PROGRESS AND
GOTTEN PROMISES FROM NATIONAL LEADERSHIP WHICH SERVE
TO INTRODUCE REASON, COMMON SENSE AND LONG-TERM
VIABILITY INTO THE PROCESS. THE SALIENT POINTS MADE
TO US BY SWANEPOEL AND COMPANY ARE:

== THE NEGOTIATIONS HAVE BEEN SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING
THE INCIDENCE AND LEVEL OF VIOLENCE DIRECTED AT WHITE
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FARMERS AND THEIR WORKERS (COMMENT: INFORMATION
COMING INTO THE EMBASSY IS THAT WHILE THERE HAS BEEN
A SLIGHT DROPOFF IN VIOLENCE ON THE FARMS IT IS STILL
CONTINUING AND DEMANDS FOR ATTENDANCE AT
"REEDUCATION" RALLIES HAVE INCREASED. WE ALSO POINT
OUT THAT COMMUNAL AREAS, RURAL MUNICIPALITIES AND
HARARE'S HIGH-DENSITY SUBURBS HAVE SEEN AN INCREASE
IN VIOLENCE IN THE LAST WEEK TO TEN DAYS. END
COMMENT.);

== THE GOVERNMENT'S CURRENT PLAN IS THAT, SOON AFTER
THE ELECTIONS, ALL INVADERS WILL BE WITHDRAWN,
ALLOWING THE START OF A MORE ORGANIZED RESETTLEMENT
PROGRAM DIRECTED OUT OF THE PRESIDENT'S OFFICE;

== THOUGH VICE PRESIDENT MSIKA WILL LIKELY BE
TITULAR HEAD OF THE RESETTLEMENT PROGRAM, ITS EFFORTS
WILL BE PERSONALLY OVERSEEN BY PRESIDENT MUGABE WHO
REALIZES THAT THE COUNTRY MUST RETAIN SOME VESTIGE OF
AGRICULTURAL VIABILITY;

== THOUGH THE 841 PREVIOUSLY-DESIGNATED FARMS MAY
ALL BE GAZZETTED FOR ACQUISITION UNDER THE NEW
LEGISLATION (REF A),THE GOZ HAS AGREED THAT IN THE
INTERESTS OF NATIONAL SECURITY THE MOST PRODUCTIVE
PROPERTIES WILL NOT BE SEIZED (OTHER FARMS BEING PUT
ON THE MARKET BY BANKRUPT OR DEPARTING FARMERS WILL
BE OFFERED TO COVER THE GAP SO THAT 2.2 MILLION
HECTARES ARE GIVEN OVER TO STATE CONTROL);

== THE WAR VETERANS ARE NOT ALL UNIFORMLY UNDER THE
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CONTROL OF "HITLER" HUNZVI AND FACTIONALISM IS
EVIDENT, WITH "WARLORDS" TAKING OVER;

== THE WAR VETERANS WILL NOT BE ALLOWED TO RETAIN
THE PLOTS THEY HAVE PEGGED OFF, BUT RATHER WILL BE
MOVED TO OTHER FARMS DURING THE RESETTLEMENT PHASE
(THE VETS OFTEN INVADED FARMS WITH THE BEST
INFRASTRUCTURE, LIKE LOOTERS GOING AFTER THE BEST
SHOPS)

== HUNZVI IS A TOOL THAT WILL BE DISCARDED BY
GOVERNMENT AFTER THE ELECTIONS, WHEN HIS UTILITY WILL
DROP TO ZERO;

== THE STATE-SANCTIONED INVASIONS ENGENDERED AN
ATMOSPHERE OF LAWLESSNESS FROM WHICH LOCAL WARLORDS
(WHO MAY OR MAY NOT BE LIBERATION WAR "VETERANS")
HAVE EMERGED AND PROFITED. THE STATE HAS FINALLY
RECOGNIZED THIS (A POINT THE CFU HAD BEEN MAKING
REPEATEDLY OVER RECENT WEEKS),AND OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS THE POLICE HAS PICKED UP AND DETAINED ABOUT 30
OF THESE INDIVIDUALS (WITH MAYBE ANOTHER 50 OR 60 TO
GO) WHO WILL BE HELD IN CUSTODY UNTIL AFTER THE
ELECTIONS;

== FOR THE COMMERCIAL FARMERS, THE UTTER LACK OF
STATE-FUNDS TO PAY FOR THE FARM ASSETS ACQUIRED, AND

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CONFIDENTIAL PTQ8246

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ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AGRE-00 AID-00 CEA-01 CIAE-00 SMEC-00
COME-00 CTME-00 DODE-00 DOEE-00 DOTE-00 ANHR-00 SRPP-00
DS-00 EB-00 EUR-01 EXIM-01 E-00 FAAE-00 VC-00
FRB-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 ITC-01 L-00 VCE-00
AC-01 NSAE-00 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00
ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 SSO-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00
PMB-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /010W
-------------- 5CE88C 301519Z /38
P 301517Z MAY 00
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6161
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
USDA FAS WASHDC
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY PARIS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 002865

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF, AF/S, AF/EPS
STATE PASS USAID FOR AFR/SA RCOHEN
STATE PASS USTR/RWHITTAKER
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH
LONDON FOR PFLAUMER

PARIS FOR BWILLIAMS
PRETORIA FOR AG ATTACHE
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 02865 02 OF 02 301519Z

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/30/05
TAGS: EAGR ECON EAID PGOV ZI
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE'S COMMERCIAL FARMERS UNION SEEKS
U.S. SUPPORT FOR MULTILATERAL LENDING RESUMPTION

THE DIRE MACRO-ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT WHICH THREATENS
BANKRUPTCY, ARE THE TWO MOST SERIOUS THREATS TODAY
CONFRONTING THE CFU MEMBERSHIP.

== AND, THE CFU REMAINS "APOLITICAL" AS AN
ORGANIZATION, BUT MANY WHITE COMMERCIAL FARMERS ARE
NOW QUIETLY SUPPORTING THE MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC
CHANGE CHANGE (MDC),FOLLOWING RULING PARTY
HARASSMENT FOR BACKING THE OPPOSITION.


2. (C) THE CFU TEAM'S INDIRECT MESSAGE WAS A PLEA
FOR INTERNATIONAL FUNDING TO ALLOW THE GOZ TO PROCEED
WITH A RATIONAL PLAN WHICH WOULD NOT CONTAIN THE
SEEDS OF THE DESTRUCTION OF ZIMBABWE'S ECONOMY. HE
ALSO CLAIMED THAT TO DATE THE INVASIONS HAVE HAD ONLY
A NEGLIBLE EFFECT ON CURRENT PRODUCTION, THOUGH
FUTURE PRODUCTION IS VERY MUCH UNDER THREAT.
(COMMENT: SWANEPOEL, WHO FULLY COMPREHENDS THE U.S.
POSITION AND LEGAL LIMITS ON FUNDING FOR LAND REFORM,
WAS AGAIN GENTLY REMINDED OF THE FACTS BY THE
AMBASSADOR. THE AMBASSADOR ALSO POINTED OUT THAT THE
ONGOING, EVEN IF DIMISHED, VIOLENCE RELATED TO ZANU-
PF POLITICKING WAS VERY TROUBLING TO THE USG AND THUS
"BUSINESS AS USUAL" COULD NOT QUICKLY OCCUR AFTER THE
ELECTIONS. END COMMENT.) SWANEPOEL POINTED OUT THAT
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BANKS WOULD LIKELY FAIL IF THE DISPOSSESSED FARMERS
WERE ONLY GIVEN PROMISSORY NOTES OR OTHER GOVERNMENT
PAPER OF QUESTIONABLE VALUE, AND WOULD THEMSELVES
HAVE NO LIQUID ASSETS TO PURSUE FARMING ANYWHERE
ELSE, IF THEY DESIRED TO DO SO.


3. (C) COMMENT: SWANEPOEL, WHILE PERHAPS NOT 100
PERCENT OPEN AND SOMEWHAT OVERLY ROSEY, WAS FRANK AND
CANDID IN HIS DESCRIPTION OF WHERE MATTERS STAND, THE
DIRECTION THE GOVERNMENT APPEARED HEADED AND WHAT THE
CFU DESIRED. AS MUGABE'S HAND-PICKED POINT MAN AND
ARBITER FOR THE WHITE COMMERCIAL FARMING COMMUNITY HE
HAS A TOUGH ROW TO HOE. THE CFU CONTINUES TO
CONSISTENTLY MAINTAIN BOTH PUBLIC AND PRIVATE LINES
OF SUPPORT, WORKING CLOSELY WITH THE GOZ ON ITS LAND
REFORM PROGRAM AND TRYING TO PUSH IT INTO THE REALM
OF DOABLE AND REASONABLE. WHETHER THE RULE OF REASON
OR OF PRACTICALITY WILL SHINE DOWN ON THE PROCESS
ONCE THE ELECTIONS ARE COMPLETE LOOKS LIKE A COIN
TOSS AT THE MOMENT, THOUGH FOR THE FUTURE OF ALL
ZIMBABWEANS WE HOPE IT IS SO. FOR THE MOMENT,
THOUGH, WE WOULDN'T BET THE FAMILY FARM ON IT. END
COMMENT.

MCDONALD

CONFIDENTIAL

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