MDC STILL LIKELY TO WIN AT LEAST 20 PERCENT OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 HARARE 002734

SIPDIS

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 02734 01 OF 05 230816Z
DEPT FOR DRL/ROBERT WARD
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH
DOL FOR ILAB/ROBERT SHEPARD
TREASURY FOR OASIA/RALYEA AND NATAN EPSTEIN
USDOC FOR DHENKE-ROGERS
LONDON FOR PFLAUMER
PARIS FOR WILLIAMS

DEPT PASS USAID WASHDC FOR AFR/SA - NAN NEWMAN, OTI -
MARC SCOTT, AND A/AID - RICHARD MCCALL

DEPT PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/23/2000
TAGS: PGOV ELAB PINR ZI MDC
SUBJECT: MDC STILL LIKELY TO WIN AT LEAST 20 PERCENT OF
TOTAL PARLIAMENTARY SEATS

REF: (A) HARARE 00395, (B) HARARE 02560, (C) HARARE

01797

CLASSIFIED BY LABOFF SHAWN THORNE FOR REASONS 1.5 (B)
AND (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: DESPITE A STATE-SPONSORED CAMPAIGN OF
INTIMIDATION AND VIOLENCE, AND THE RULING PARTY'S
CONTROL OF THE ELECTORAL PROCESS, THE MOVEMENT FOR
DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC) STILL IS LIKELY TO WIN AT LEAST
20 PERCENT OF THE 150 PARLIAMENTARY SEAT TOTAL (OR 30
SEATS) IN THE ELECTIONS NOW SCHEDULED FOR JUNE 24-25.
(NOTE: ONLY 120 OF THE 150 SEATS ARE ELECTED. THE
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 03 HARARE 02734 01 OF 05 230816Z
REMAINING 30 ARE APPOINTED BY THE PRESIDENT. END NOTE.)
APPROXIMATELY 42 OF THE 120 SEATS UP FOR GRABS REPRESENT
URBAN AND/OR PERI-URBAN AREAS, WHILE 78 ARE LOCATED IN
RURAL AREAS. SUPPORT FOR THE MDC REMAINS STRONG IN MOST
URBAN CENTERS; HENCE OUR PREDICTION THAT THE OPPOSITION
MOVEMENT WILL MANAGE TO CAPTURE AT LEAST 30 SEATS (REF
A). HOWEVER, MDC LEADERS HAVE EXPRESSED THEIR SURPRISE
AT THE LEVEL OF SUSTAINED STATE SPONSORED VIOLENCE AND
INTIMIDATION TAKING PLACE IN THE COUNTRYSIDE -- AND
INCREASINGLY IN THE CITIES -- AND THE REFUSAL OF THE
POLICE TO INTERVENE. MEANWHILE, THE RULING PARTY ZANU-PF
IS TAKING ADVANTAGE OF ITS CONTROL OF THE ELECTORAL
PROCESS BY DELAYING THE OFFICIAL ANNOUNCEMENT OF
CONSTITUENCY BOUNDARIES. THE MDC ARGUES THAT IT CANNOT
FORMALLY NOMINATE CANDIDATES FOR EACH CONSTITUENCY UNTIL
IT KNOWS WHAT THOSE CONSTITUENCIES ARE, AND THAT THE GOZ
IS PURPOSELY DELAYING THE RELEASE OF THIS INFORMATION.
NONETHELESS, MDC LEADERS STATE THE PARTY ENJOYS
WIDESPREAD AND SUBSTANTIAL SUPPORT IN BOTH URBAN AND
RURAL AREAS, AND THAT THE RULING PARTY'S INTIMIDATION
TACTICS WILL BACKFIRE COME ELECTION DAY. WHILE POST
EXPECTS THE MDC TO CERTAINLY GET A FOOT IN THE DOOR OF
PARLIAMENT, AT THIS TIME WE BELIEVE IT WILL BE NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE FOR THE PARTY TO SECURE A PARLIAMENTARY
MAJORITY OF 76 SEATS. END SUMMARY.

--------------
ZANU-PF'S CAMPAIGN OF VIOLENCE CONTINUES
--------------


2. (C) THE RULING PARTY'S CAMPAIGN OF INTIMIDATION AND
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 04 HARARE 02734 01 OF 05 230816Z
VIOLENCE CONTINUES ACROSS THE COUNTRY, AND WE EXPECT IT
TO WORSEN IN THE RUN-UP TO THE JUNE 24-25 ELECTION DATE
(REF B). ACCORDING TO A RUNNING DATABASE BEING COMPILED
BY A MIXTURE OF HUMAN RIGHTS GROUPS, CHURCHES,
OPPOSITION PARTIES, AND THE COMMERCIAL FARMERS UNION,
OVER 5,000 ASSAULTS AND INJURIES, AND AT LEAST 21
MURDERS, HAVE OCCURRED SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE FARM
INVASIONS IN FEBRUARY. ALMOST ALL OF THE VIOLENT ACTS,
ACCORDING TO EYEWITNESSES, WERE CARRIED OUT BY ZANU-PF
SUPPORTERS. FOR THE MOST PART, THE POLICE, UNDER ORDERS
FROM THE POWERS-THAT-BE, HAVE STOOD IDLY BY -- AND IN
SOME CASES EVEN ASSISTED THE ATTACKERS -- AS THESE
CRIMES HAVE BEEN COMMITTED. THE BULK OF THE RULING
PARTY'S CAMPAIGN HAS BEEN FOCUSED IN THE RURAL AREAS
WHERE TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY'S POPULATION RESIDE. ON
INVADED COMMERCIAL FARMS (WHICH NOW TOTAL OVER 1,000),
WAR VETERANS AND GROUPS OF ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS (MAINLY
UNEMPLOYED YOUTH) CONTINUE TO TERRORIZE FARMERS AND
THEIR EMPLOYEES, FORCING THEM TO ATTEND "RE-EDUCATION"
RALLIES AND SEVERELY BEATING (IN SOME CASES MURDERING)
SUSPECTED MDC SUPPORTERS.


3. (C) IN RECENT WEEKS, THE WAVE OF VIOLENCE HAS SWEPT
INTO THE CITIES, IN PARTICULAR PERI-URBAN AREAS AND HIGH

CONFIDENTIAL

CONFIDENTIAL PTQ5611

PAGE 01 HARARE 02734 02 OF 05 230817Z
ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 SMEC-00 INL-01
DINT-00 DODE-00 DOEE-00 DOTE-00 ANHR-00 WHA-00 SRPP-00
DS-00 EB-00 EUR-01 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-01 H-01
TEDE-00 INR-00 LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 DCP-01
NSAE-00 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00
P-00 SP-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 G-00
NFAT-00 SAS-00 /011W
-------------- 5A205B 230817Z /38
R 230817Z MAY 00
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 6109
INFO NSC WASHDC
DEPT OF LABOR WASHDC
DEPTTREAS WASHDC
USDOC WASHDC
AMCONSUL CAPE TOWN
AMEMBASSY GABORONE
AMEMBASSY LILONGWE
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY MAPUTO
AMEMBASSY PARIS
AMEMBASSY PRETORIA
AMEMBASSY WINDHOEK
AMEMBASSY LUSAKA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 05 HARARE 002734

SIPDIS

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 02734 02 OF 05 230817Z
DEPT FOR DRL/ROBERT WARD
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH
DOL FOR ILAB/ROBERT SHEPARD
TREASURY FOR OASIA/RALYEA AND NATAN EPSTEIN
USDOC FOR DHENKE-ROGERS
LONDON FOR PFLAUMER
PARIS FOR WILLIAMS

DEPT PASS USAID WASHDC FOR AFR/SA - NAN NEWMAN, OTI -
MARC SCOTT, AND A/AID - RICHARD MCCALL

DEPT PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/23/2000
TAGS: PGOV ELAB PINR ZI MDC
SUBJECT: MDC STILL LIKELY TO WIN AT LEAST 20 PERCENT OF
TOTAL PARLIAMENTARY SEATS

DENSITY TOWNSHIPS. ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS HAVE BURNED THE
HOMES AND DESTROYED PROPERTY OF NUMEROUS MDC OFFICIALS
IN HARARE, GWERU, AND KWEKWE, AND VIOLENT SKIRMISHES
BETWEEN MDC AND ZANU-PF MEMBERS OCCUR REGULARLY AROUND
THE COUNTRY. WAR VETERANS AND OTHER ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS,
EMBOLDENED BY THE TACIT SUPPORT OF POLICE, HAVE BEGUN TO
TARGET FACTORIES AND OTHER BUSINESSES, MOST OF WHICH ARE
OWNED BY WHITES OR MEMBERS OF THE INDIAN COMMUNITY WITH
SUSPECTED MDC LOYALTIES. DURING THE WEEK OF MAY 15, FOR
EXAMPLE, TWO FACTORIES IN BULAWAYO AND ONE LUMBER MILL
IN CHIPINGE WERE STORMED BY GROUPS OF ZANU-PF THUGS
DEMANDING MONEY FOR THEIR CAMPAIGN, AS WELL AS
MANAGEMENT'S' OATH OF ALLEGIANCE TO THE RULING PARTY.
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 03 HARARE 02734 02 OF 05 230817Z
ACCORDING TO EYEWITNESSES, SEVERAL EMPLOYEES WERE BEATEN
AND THE MANAGEMENT STAFF "ROUGHED UP" AS POLICE STOOD BY
IN PLAIN VIEW AND DID NOTHING. ONE INDIAN BUSINESSMAN
TOLD LABOFF THAT THE AFFIRMATIVE ACTION GROUP, A
GOVERNMENT-SUPPORTED NGO OSTENSIBLY WORKING TO INCREASE
EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES FOR BLACK ZIMBABWEANS, HAS
LAUNCHED A PUBLIC CAMPAIGN IN BULAWAYO, HARARE, AND
MUTARE THAT TARGETS INDIAN BUSINESSPEOPLE AS "AGENTS OF
THE MDC." THE CONTACT STATED THAT HE AND OTHER
COLLEAGUES ALSO HAVE RECEIVED ANONYMOUS THREATS THAT,
SHOULD THE MDC WIN IN THEIR CONSTITUENCIES, THEIR
FAMILIES AND PROPERTY WOULD SUFFER THE CONSEQUENCES.

-------------- --------------
RULING PARTY STACKS THE DECK IN THE ELECTORAL PROCESS
-------------- --------------


4. (C) IN ADDITION TO ITS CAMPAIGN OF INTIMIDATION, THE
RULING PARTY ALSO IS USING ITS CONTROL OF THE ELECTORAL
PROCESS TO STACK THE DECK IN ITS FAVOR. SUPREME COURT
JUSTICE WILSON SANDURA HAS STATED PUBLICLY THAT, AS OF
MAY 19, THE DELIMITATION COMMISSION WHICH HE CHAIRS HAD
NOT RELEASED ITS OFFICIAL WRITTEN REPORT. HOWEVER,
JUSTICE SANDURA TOLD REPRESENTATIVES OF THE NATIONAL
DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTE (NDI) PRE-ELECTION SURVEY TEAM
DURING THE WEEK OF MAY 15 THAT WHILE HE HAS DISCUSSED
THE BOUNDARIES OF THE NEW CONSTITUENCIES VERBALLY WITH
PRESIDENT MUGABE, HE HAS NOT PROVIDED HIM WITH ANY
WRITTEN REPORT. SANDURA SAID THE PROPOSED MAPS SHOWING
THE NEW BOUNDARIES WERE NOT EVEN PREPARED YET, AS THEY
ARE STILL BEING WORKED ON BY THE SURVEYOR GENERAL'S
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 04 HARARE 02734 02 OF 05 230817Z
OFFICE, AND ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE READY UNTIL MAY 26.
NEVERTHELESS, IT IS CLEAR THAT THE NEW BOUNDARIES ARE
KNOWN TO THE RULING PARTY, AS MINISTER OF JUSTICE, LEGAL
AND PARLIAMENTARY AFFAIRS EMMERSON MNANGAGWA STATED ON
NATIONAL TELEVISION NEWS ON MAY 16 THAT THE DELIMITATION
COMMISSION HAD COMPLETED ITS WORK, AND THAT SEVERAL
CONSTITUENCIES HAD BEEN ELIMINATED IN THE PROCESS OF RE-
DRAWING THE VOTING BOUNDARIES. (NOTE: ONE OF THE
CONSTITUENCIES THAT HAS BEEN ELIMINATED, ACCORDING TO
THE MINISTER, IS BULAWAYO SOUTH, WHERE ATTORNEY DAVID
COLTART, THE MDC'S SECRETARY FOR LEGAL AFFAIRS, WAS
FAVORED TO WIN. MARGARET DONGO'S CONSTITUENCY IN HARARE
SOUTH WAS ALSO DISSOLVED. END NOTE.)


5. (C) MEANWHILE, THE GOZ HAS DECLARED MAY 29 AS THE
DEADLINE FOR THE SUBMISSION OF CANDIDATES' NAMES TO THE
NOMINATING COURT. OUR SOURCES TELL US THAT THE GOZ IS
UNLIKELY TO RELEASE THE OFFICIAL RESULTS OF THE
DELIMITATION EXERCISE UNTIL ABOUT MAY 22. THE MDC AND
OTHER OPPOSITION PARTIES ARGUE THAT ONE WEEK IS NOT
ENOUGH TIME TO EXAMINE THE NEW CONSTITUENCIES AND
OFFICIALLY SUBMIT THEIR CANDIDATES' CREDENTIALS TO THE
NOMINATING COURT. (NOTE: SEE REF (C) FOR A TIMELINE OF
PREREQUISITES THAT, ACCORDING TO THE ELECTORAL ACT, THE

CONFIDENTIAL

CONFIDENTIAL PTQ5615

PAGE 01 HARARE 02734 03 OF 05 230817Z
ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 SMEC-00 INL-01
DINT-00 DODE-00 DOEE-00 DOTE-00 ANHR-00 WHA-00 SRPP-00
DS-00 EB-00 EUR-01 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-01 H-01
TEDE-00 INR-00 LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 DCP-01
NSAE-00 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00
P-00 SP-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 G-00
NFAT-00 SAS-00 /011W
-------------- 5A2067 230817Z /38
R 230817Z MAY 00
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 6110
INFO NSC WASHDC
DEPT OF LABOR WASHDC
DEPTTREAS WASHDC
USDOC WASHDC
AMCONSUL CAPE TOWN
AMEMBASSY GABORONE
AMEMBASSY LILONGWE
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY MAPUTO
AMEMBASSY PARIS
AMEMBASSY PRETORIA
AMEMBASSY WINDHOEK
AMEMBASSY LUSAKA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 05 HARARE 002734

SIPDIS

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 02734 03 OF 05 230817Z
DEPT FOR DRL/ROBERT WARD
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH
DOL FOR ILAB/ROBERT SHEPARD
TREASURY FOR OASIA/RALYEA AND NATAN EPSTEIN
USDOC FOR DHENKE-ROGERS
LONDON FOR PFLAUMER
PARIS FOR WILLIAMS

DEPT PASS USAID WASHDC FOR AFR/SA - NAN NEWMAN, OTI -
MARC SCOTT, AND A/AID - RICHARD MCCALL

DEPT PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/23/2000
TAGS: PGOV ELAB PINR ZI MDC
SUBJECT: MDC STILL LIKELY TO WIN AT LEAST 20 PERCENT OF
TOTAL PARLIAMENTARY SEATS

GOZ MUST FOLLOW BEFORE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS. END
NOTE.) DAVID COLTART AND TENDAI BITI, THE MDC'S
SECRETARY FOR LANDS AND AGRICULTURE, ANNOUNCED TO THE

SIPDIS
PRESS ON MAY 18 THAT THE MDC INTENDS TO SUE PRESIDENT
MUGABE FOR FAILING TO ANNOUNCE THE NEW CONSTITUENCIES IN
SUFFICIENT TIME TO ALLOW CANDIDATES TO SUBMIT THEIR
NOMINATIONS, AS WELL AS OTHER GOVERNMENT TACTICS THAT
THE MDC ARGUES IS PRECLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF FREE AND
FAIR ELECTIONS ON JUNE 24-25.


6. (C) COMMENT: WHEN THE DELIMITATION COMMISSION'S
OFFICIAL REPORT IS RELEASED, WE EXPECT TO SEE THE
BOUNDARIES REDRAWN TO SPLIT UP THOSE CONSTITUENCIES,
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 03 HARARE 02734 03 OF 05 230817Z
PARTICULARLY IN URBAN AREAS, THAT ARE KNOWN TO BE PRO-
MDC. IN SOME CASES, LIKE BULAWAYO SOUTH, THE
CONSTITUENCY WILL BE ELIMINATED ALTOGETHER. THE RULING
PARTY LIKELY WILL WAIT AS LONG AS POSSIBLE TO RELEASE
THE REPORT, GIVING THE MDC VERY LITTLE TIME TO SUBMIT
ITS CANDIDATES' NOMINATIONS. THE RULING PARTY'S
TAMPERING WITH THE CONSTITUENT BOUNDARIES -- AND ALMOST
CERTAINLY WITH THE VOTERS' ROLL -- IS CLEARLY AN ATTEMPT
TO DISADVANTAGE THE MDC AT THE POLLS IN JUNE. END
COMMENT.

--------------
MDC STILL CONFIDENT
--------------


7. (C) MORGAN TSVANGIRAI, PRESIDENT OF THE MDC, TOLD
REPORTERS ON MAY 10 THAT HIS PARTY WAS CONSIDERING
BOYCOTTING THE ELECTIONS BECAUSE, IN THE CURRENT CLIMATE
OF INTIMIDATION, A FREE AND FAIR VOTE WOULD NOT BE
POSSIBLE. THE GOVERNMENT-CONTROLLED MEDIA SEIZED THE
OPPORTUNITY TO PORTRAY THE MDC AS TURNING TAIL AND
RUNNING WHEN THE GOING GOT TOUGH. DAVID COLTART
EXPLAINED THAT TSVANGIRAI'S STATEMENT WAS NOT ONE OF
COWARDICE, BUT RATHER AN OFFER TO MDC CANDIDATES OF A
WAY OUT OF THE VIOLENCE, IF THEY CHOSE TO TAKE IT.
ACCORDING TO COLTART AND WELSHMAN NCUBE, THE MDC'S
SECRETARY GENERAL, THE PARTY'S SENIOR LEADERSHIP IS

SIPDIS
DEEPLY CONCERNED ABOUT THE WELFARE OF ITS CANDIDATES AND
SUPPORTERS IN THE FIELD WHO ARE BEING, OR HAVE BEEN,
TARGETS OF VIOLENCE. BY SUGGESTING A BOYCOTT, TSVANGIRAI
WAS OFFERING HIS MEMBERS THE CHANCE TO DROP OUT OF THE
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 04 HARARE 02734 03 OF 05 230817Z
RACE AND REDUCE THEIR EXPOSURE, WHILE STILL SAVING FACE.
THE ANSWER FROM MDC CANDIDATES WAS A RESOUNDING "NO."
ACCORDING TO COLTART, ATTENDEES OF A MAY 13 MEETING OF
THE PARTY LEADERSHIP OVERWHELMINGLY VOTED AGAINST
BOYCOTTING THE ELECTION, ARGUING THAT THE RULING PARTY'S
CAMPAIGN OF TERROR WAS HAVING THE OPPOSITE EFFECT ON
VOTERS, AND THAT THEY WERE WILLING TO SUFFER THE
CONSEQUENCES OF CONTINUED CAMPAIGNING IN ORDER TO "BRING
AN END TO MUGABE'S DICTATORSHIP." THE MDC'S ELECTION
CAMPAIGN THEREFORE CONTINUES.


8. (C) WELSHMAN NCUBE CONFIRMED THAT THE PARTY STILL
INTENDS TO FIELD CANDIDATES IN EVERY DISTRICT EXCEPT
THAT OF INDEPENDENT PARLIAMENTARIAN MARGARET DONGO.
ALTHOUGH FUNDING CONTINUES TO BE A PROBLEM, NCUBE STATED
THAT SMALL, INDIVIDUAL, AND OFTEN ANONYMOUS DONATIONS
CONTINUE TO ARRIVE REGULARLY, AND THAT ALL OF THESE
"DROPS IN THE BUCKET" ARE ADDING UP. BEFORE THE START OF
THE COMMERCIAL FARM INVASIONS IN FEBRUARY, WHITE FARMERS
AND BUSINESSPEOPLE WERE MAKING SOME SUBSTANTIAL
DONATIONS. TSVANGIRAI'S NUMEROUS TRIPS TO SOUTH AFRICA
AND EUROPE IN RECENT MONTHS YIELDED SOME CONTRIBUTIONS
FROM FELLOW TRADE UNIONISTS IN THOSE COUNTRIES. NCUBE
ADDED THAT THE PARTY CONTINUES TO RECEIVE FREQUENT

CONFIDENTIAL

CONFIDENTIAL PTQ5619

PAGE 01 HARARE 02734 04 OF 05 230818Z
ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 SMEC-00 INL-01
DINT-00 DODE-00 DOEE-00 DOTE-00 ANHR-00 WHA-00 SRPP-00
DS-00 EB-00 EUR-01 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-01 H-01
TEDE-00 INR-00 LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 DCP-01
NSAE-00 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00
P-00 SP-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 G-00
NFAT-00 SAS-00 /011W
-------------- 5A2078 230818Z /38
R 230817Z MAY 00
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 6111
INFO NSC WASHDC
DEPT OF LABOR WASHDC
DEPTTREAS WASHDC
USDOC WASHDC
AMCONSUL CAPE TOWN
AMEMBASSY GABORONE
AMEMBASSY LILONGWE
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY MAPUTO
AMEMBASSY PARIS
AMEMBASSY PRETORIA
AMEMBASSY WINDHOEK
AMEMBASSY LUSAKA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 04 OF 05 HARARE 002734

SIPDIS

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 02734 04 OF 05 230818Z
DEPT FOR DRL/ROBERT WARD
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH
DOL FOR ILAB/ROBERT SHEPARD
TREASURY FOR OASIA/RALYEA AND NATAN EPSTEIN
USDOC FOR DHENKE-ROGERS
LONDON FOR PFLAUMER
PARIS FOR WILLIAMS

DEPT PASS USAID WASHDC FOR AFR/SA - NAN NEWMAN, OTI -
MARC SCOTT, AND A/AID - RICHARD MCCALL

DEPT PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/23/2000
TAGS: PGOV ELAB PINR ZI MDC
SUBJECT: MDC STILL LIKELY TO WIN AT LEAST 20 PERCENT OF
TOTAL PARLIAMENTARY SEATS

DONATIONS (MANY OVER THE INTERNET) FROM INDIVIDUALS
LIVING ABROAD, PARTICULARLY ZIMBABWEAN EXPATRIATES IN
THE U.K. ALTHOUGH THE MONEY IS COMING IN, NCUBE ADMITTED
THAT IT IS NOT ENOUGH TO MOUNT THE TYPE OF MEDIA AND
GRASSROOTS CAMPAIGN THAT THE MDC NEEDS. "WE NEED ABOUT
U.S.$3.5 MILLION TO RUN THE CAMPAIGN THAT WE WANT," HE
SAID. "WE HAVEN'T EVEN GOT HALF OF THAT."


9. (C) BEYOND FUNDING SHORTFALLS, THE WAVE OF STATE-
SPONSORED VIOLENCE ACROSS ZIMBABWE HAS FORCED THE MDC'S
CAMPAIGN LARGELY UNDERGROUND AT THIS POINT. NCUBE TOLD
EMBOFFS THAT THE PARTY WAS "SURPRISED" BY, AND
"UNPREPARED" FOR, THE LEVEL OF INTIMIDATION THAT THE
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 03 HARARE 02734 04 OF 05 230818Z
RULING PARTY HAS BEEN ABLE TO SUSTAIN. IN PARTICULAR,
SAID NCUBE, MDC LEADERS DID NOT EXPECT THE POLICE TO
TOTALLY ABDICATE THEIR RESPONSIBILITY AND ALLOW VICIOUS
BEATINGS AND KILLINGS TO TAKE PLACE WITHOUT CONSEQUENCE.
AS A RESULT, THE MDC NOW IS HOLDING ALMOST NO RALLIES ON
COMMERCIAL FARMS, EITHER BECAUSE THE AREAS HAVE BEEN
INVADED BY WAR VETERANS AND THEIR FOLLOWERS, AND/OR
BECAUSE THE FARMERS, FEARFUL OF RETALIATION PERPETRATED
BY THE RULING PARTY TOUGHS, REFUSE TO ALLOW THE EVENTS
TO TAKE PLACE ON THEIR PROPERTIES. MOREOVER, SAID NCUBE,
THE MDC RECOGNIZES THAT AGENTS FROM THE CENTRAL
INTELLIGENCE ORGANIZATION (CIO) ARE PRESENT AT MOST OF
THEIR GATHERINGS, AND THAT ANY FARM WORKER THAT ATTENDS
ONE OF THEIR RALLIES IS LIKELY TO BE "VISITED LATER IN
THE NIGHT." IN THE CITIES AND PERI-URBAN AREAS WHERE THE
MDC ENJOYS WIDESPREAD SUPPORT, SAID NCUBE, THE PARTY IS
STILL ABLE TO HOLD SMALL RALLIES AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO
SO. THE MAJORITY OF THE MDC'S CAMPAIGNING NOW IS BEING
DONE BY WORD OF MOUTH, THOUGH, IN SMALL GROUPS AT
PEOPLE'S HOMES AND OTHER PRIVATE LOCATIONS. PARTY
LEADERS HAVE ADVISED THEIR MEMBERS -- PARTICULARLY IN
THE TROUBLED AREAS OF THE MASHONALAND PROVINCES -- TO
PUT THEIR PERSONAL SAFETY FIRST AND AVOID WEARING MDC T-
SHIRTS OR CHANTING MDC SLOGANS IN PUBLIC. THE LEADERS
THEMSELVES ALSO ARE TAKING EXTRA SECURITY PRECAUTIONS,
INCLUDING SENDING THEIR IMMEDIATE FAMILY MEMBERS TO STAY
WITH FRIENDS OR DISTANT RELATIVES.


10. (C) DESPITE THE RULING PARTY'S ATTEMPTS TO "RE-
EDUCATE" ITS WAYWARD CITIZENS, THE MDC STILL IS
CONFIDENT OF WINNING A MAJORITY OF 76 SEATS IN
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 04 HARARE 02734 04 OF 05 230818Z
PARLIAMENT. MDC MEMBERS ASSERT THAT ZANU-PF WILL
DISCOVER ON ELECTION DAY THAT ITS INTIMIDATION TACTICS
HAVE BACKFIRED. NCUBE PREDICTS WITH GREAT CONFIDENCE
THAT, "PEOPLE WILL VOTE THEIR CONSCIENCE" AT THE POLLS.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


11. (C) THE RULING PARTY'S SCARE TACTICS AND "RE-
EDUCATION" CAMPAIGN, BOTH ON THE FARMS AND IN THE
GOVERNMENT-OWNED MEDIA, UNDOUBTEDLY HAVE HAD SOME EFFECT
ON VOTERS. IN THE RURAL AREAS, FARM WORKERS AND COMMUNAL
RESIDENTS -- TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY'S POPULATION --
GENERALLY ARE UNSOPHISTICATED; LACK ACCESS TO ANY MEDIA
EXCEPT THAT CONTROLLED BY THE GOVERNMENT; AND, ACCORDING
TO SOME COMMERCIAL FARMERS, ARE EASILY INTIMIDATED BY
THE RULING PARTY. HIGH PRICES, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND
DECLINING DISPOSABLE INCOME HAVE TAUGHT RURAL RESIDENTS,
HOWEVER, THAT ALL IS NOT WELL WITH ZANU-PF'S MANAGEMENT
OF THE ECONOMY. MEANWHILE, MANY OF THEIR CHILDREN AND
OTHER RELATIVES LIVE IN THE CITY AND RETURN HOME ON
WEEKENDS WITH TALES OF THEIR FINANCIAL STRAITS -- A
STATE OF AFFAIRS THAT THE MDC IS PROMISING TO REVERSE.

CONFIDENTIAL

CONFIDENTIAL PTQ5620

PAGE 01 HARARE 02734 05 OF 05 230818Z
ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 SMEC-00 INL-01
DINT-00 DODE-00 DOEE-00 DOTE-00 ANHR-00 WHA-00 SRPP-00
DS-00 EB-00 EUR-01 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-01 H-01
TEDE-00 INR-00 LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 DCP-01
NSAE-00 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00
P-00 SP-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 G-00
NFAT-00 SAS-00 /011W
-------------- 5A207E 230818Z /38
R 230817Z MAY 00
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 6112
INFO NSC WASHDC
DEPT OF LABOR WASHDC
DEPTTREAS WASHDC
USDOC WASHDC
AMCONSUL CAPE TOWN
AMEMBASSY GABORONE
AMEMBASSY LILONGWE
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY MAPUTO
AMEMBASSY PARIS
AMEMBASSY PRETORIA
AMEMBASSY WINDHOEK
AMEMBASSY LUSAKA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 05 OF 05 HARARE 002734

SIPDIS

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 02734 05 OF 05 230818Z
DEPT FOR DRL/ROBERT WARD
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH
DOL FOR ILAB/ROBERT SHEPARD
TREASURY FOR OASIA/RALYEA AND NATAN EPSTEIN
USDOC FOR DHENKE-ROGERS
LONDON FOR PFLAUMER
PARIS FOR WILLIAMS

DEPT PASS USAID WASHDC FOR AFR/SA - NAN NEWMAN, OTI -
MARC SCOTT, AND A/AID - RICHARD MCCALL

DEPT PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/23/2000
TAGS: PGOV ELAB PINR ZI MDC
SUBJECT: MDC STILL LIKELY TO WIN AT LEAST 20 PERCENT OF
TOTAL PARLIAMENTARY SEATS

IT IS THEREFORE DIFFICULT TO JUDGE HOW RURAL RESIDENTS
WILL VOTE IN JUNE, PARTICULARLY NOW THAT THE RULING
PARTY HAS EFFECTIVELY QUELLED THEIR ABILITY TO FREELY
EXPRESS THEIR POLITICAL VIEWS. IN THE URBAN CENTERS, WE
CONTINUE TO SEE A HIGH DEGREE OF SUPPORT FOR THE MDC,
PARTICULARLY AMONG WORKING CLASS ZIMBABWEANS WHO
SUPPORTED THE PARTY'S EMERGENCE FROM THE ZIMBABWEAN
CONGRESS OF TRADE UNIONS (ZCTU). GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF
HIGH NUMBERS OF MDC VOTES IN THE APPROXIMATELY 38 URBAN
CONSTITUENCIES, AS WELL AS THE STILL LARGELY UNCLEAR
SYMPATHIES OF RURAL VOTERS, WE BELIEVE THAT AN MDC WIN
OF AT LEAST 30 OF THE PARLIAMENTARY SEATS IS PROBABLE.
GIVEN THE UNREMITTING CAMPAIGN OF VIOLENCE, HOWEVER, THE
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 03 HARARE 02734 05 OF 05 230818Z
MDC IS UNLIKELY TO WIN MANY MORE -- AND CERTAINLY NOT
THE 76 SEATS IT EARLIER BOASTED WERE IN THE BAG -- IN
THIS ELECTION. END COMMENT.

MCDONALD

CONFIDENTIAL

>