PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS OF ZIMBABWE ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 002236

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF A/S SUSAN E. RICE, PDAS POWELL,
DAS SCHNEIDMAN, AF/S DIRECTOR RENDER, DESK OFFICER
GURNEY, SA/INS FOR STEVE KRAFT
NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR FOR AFRICA GAYLE SMITH
DEPT ALSO PLEASE PASS AID, PASS TO USTR FOR ROSA
WHITAKER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 4/26/10
TAGS: PGOV PREL ZI
SUBJECT: PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS OF ZIMBABWE ELECTION
PROSPECTS

REF: HARARE 2121

CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR MCDONALD FOR 1.5 (B),(D)


1. (C) SUMMARY. WE HAVE BEGUN AN ANALYSIS OF
POSSIBLE RESULTS IN THE COMING ZIMBABWEAN
PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION BASED ON A DATABASE OF
VOTING DISTRICTS. IN A ROUGH FIRST CUT, LOOKING
ONLY AT THE IMPORTANT URBAN-RURAL SPLIT IN
CONSTITUENCIES, WE BELIEVE THE OPPOSITION MOVEMENT
FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC) PARTY COULD COLLECT
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 45 AND 55 SEATS. OUR ANALYSIS
HIGHLIGHTS THE IMPORTANCE OF THE RURAL VOTE, WHICH
CONTROLS TWO-THIRDS OF THE CURRENT CONSTITUENCIES.
THIS PUTS THE RULING PARTY'S ONGOING CAMPAIGN OF
INTIMIDATION IN RURAL AREAS IN A CLEARER LIGHT:
THEY ARE FIGHTING TO SAVE THEIR POLITICAL SKINS. A
LOCAL MDC-LEANING POLITICAL SCIENTIST, WHO CONDUCTS
POLLS TO PREDICT AND ANALYZE VOTING, UNDERLINED THE
POSSIBILITY OF A LARGE MDC WIN--MAYBE EVEN CONTROL
OF PARLIAMENT--IF THEY CAN STYMIE ZANU-PF ATTEMPTS
TO SUPPRESS THEM. END SUMMARY.
BEGINNING ANALYSIS WITH THE KNOWN AND UNKNOWN


2. (C) THERE ARE CLEARLY MANY IMPONDERABLES AT
THIS STAGE OF THE ELECTION CYCLE. EVEN A SHORT
LIST MUST INCLUDE: WHEN THE VOTE WILL BE HELD; THE
DEGREE OF OPENNESS WITH WHICH IT WILL BE CONDUCTED;
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THE EFFECTS OF THE CURRENT CAMPAIGN TO USE VIOLENCE
TO INTIMIDATE RURAL SUPPORTERS OF THE OPPOSITION
PARTY, MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC); THE
EFFECTIVENESS OF INDEPENDENT PARTIES AND PRESS; AND
POSSIBLE GERRYMANDERING FAVORING ZANU-PF IN THE
ONGOING PROCESS OF DELIMITING VOTING DISTRICTS.
NONETHELESS, SOME OUTLINES OF POSSIBLE ELECTION
RESULTS CAN BE DISCERNED.


3. (C) FOR OUR PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS, WE HAVE
CLASSIFIED THE CURRENT 120 PARLIAMENTARY
CONSTITUENCIES BY WHAT PROVINCE THEY ARE IN AND
THEIR DEGREE OF URBANIZATION. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
REFINE THIS DATABASE AND ADD ADDITIONAL VARIABLES.
AS A BACKGROUND NOTE, UNDER THE CURRENT
CONSTITUTION THE PRESIDENT APPOINTS 30 MEMBERS TO
PARLIAMENT, WITH THE RESULT THAT TO ACHIEVE A
MAJORITY, AN OPPOSITION PARTY WILL HAVE TO SEE AT
LEAST 76 MEMBERS ELECTED.

ASSUMING MDC URBAN SUPPORT


4. (C) BECAUSE THE IMPONDERABLES SURROUNDING THE
ELECTION ARE SO LARGE, OUR ANALYSIS AT THIS TIME IS
NECESSARILY VERY ROUGH. WE HAVE CLASSIFIED
CONSTITUENCIES INTO EITHER RURAL OR NON-RURAL
(INCLUDING CITIES, TOWNS, AND SUBURBS). AS A FIRST
CUT AT LOOKING AT POSSIBLE ELECTION RESULTS, WE
ASSUME THE MDC WILL LARGELY CARRY THE URBAN AREAS
AND THE RULING ZANU-PF WILL LARGELY TAKE THE RURAL
AREAS.
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5. (C) UNDER THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE MDC WILL TAKE
90 PERCENT OF CURRENT NON-RURAL CONSTITUENCIES
WHILE ZANU-PF TAKES 90 PERCENT OF THE RURAL AREAS,
MDC WOULD GARNER ABOUT 46 SEATS AND ZANU-PF WOULD
TAKE ABOUT 74. IF MDC MANAGES TO HOLD ITS URBAN
BASE AT THE 90 PERCENT LEVEL AND INCREASE ITS
APPEAL TO 15 PERCENT OF THE RURAL CONSTITUENCIES,
ITS SEAT TOTAL WOULD GO TO 50, AND ZANU-PF WOULD
HOLD 70.
IMPORTANT VOTING DISTRICTS NOT SET


6. (C) ONE OF THE MAJOR STUMBLING BLOCKS TO
SCHEDULING THE ELECTION HAS BEEN THE NEED FOR THE
DELIMITATION COMMISSION, UNDER SUPREME COURT
JUSTICE WILSON SANDURA, TO COMPLETE A REVISION OF
THE PARLIAMENTARY CONSTITUENCIES. IN A RECENT
CONVERSATION (REFTEL),HE TOLD US HE THOUGHT IT
POSSIBLE THAT THE PATTERN OF THE LAST DELIMITATION
EXERCISE, WHICH SAW AN INCREASE IN URBAN
CONSTITUENCIES AT THE EXPENSE OF RURAL ONES, WOULD
BE REPEAT
ED. AS A PRELIMINARY CUT AT WHAT RESULTS.

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