S/E WOLPE DISCUSSES DRC DISENGAGEMENT AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 HARARE 002222

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STATE FOR AF A/S SUSAN RICE, DAS POWELL
USUN FOR AMBASSADORS HOLBROOKE AND SODERBERG
USUN/W FOR ORR
STATE PASS DOD FOR OSD/PKHA/JSCHEAR
NSC FOR GAYLE SMITH AND ERIC SCHWARTZ
LONDON FOR PFLAUMER
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/25/10
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR CG ZI
SUBJECT: S/E WOLPE DISCUSSES DRC DISENGAGEMENT AND
DISARMAMENT WITH ZIMBABWEAN PRESIDENT

REFS: A) HARARE 2198

B) HARARE 2200

CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR TOM MCDONALD, REASONS 1.5 (B),(D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: ZIMBABWEAN PRESIDENT ROBERT MUGABE HOSTED A
TWO HOUR AND TWENTY MINUTE MEETING WITH THE USG DELEGATION AT
HIS RESIDENCE IN HARARE ON 22 APRIL. S/E WOLPE, AMB
MCDONALD, SPECIAL ADVISOR PRENDERGAST, LT. COL. GADDIS, AND
ECONOFF PROKOP ATTENDED. S/E WOLPE REINFORCED THE USG
CONCERN THAT THERE BE GOOD FAITH COMPLIANCE WITH THE KAMPALA
CEASE-FIRE AND FULL IMPLEMENTATION OF LUSAKA, INCLUDING THE
COMPLETE RESTORATION OF DRC SOVEREIGNTY. HE ALSO ASKED IF
MUGABE WOULD CONSIDER, IN PRINCIPLE, A COMMITMENT TO CEASE
THE RE-SUPPLY AND TRAINING OF NON-STATE ACTORS AS A
CONFIDENCE BUILDING MEASURE THAT COULD BE LINKED TO SPECIFIC
COMMITMENTS MADE BY RWANDA AND UGANDA ON FURTHER OR
ACCELERATED REDEPLOYMENT AND WITHDRAWAL. MUGABE SAID THAT HE
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WOULD CONSIDER SUCH MEASURES IF HE COULD BE SURE THAT, IN
RETURN, RWANDA AND UGANDA WOULD CEASE THEIR SUPPORT FOR THEIR
REBEL CLIENTS. END SUMMARY.
PURPOSE OF THE DELEGATION'S VISIT


2. (C) S/E WOLPE INFORMED PRESIDENT MUGABE THAT HE HAD COME, AT
THE REQUEST OF PRESIDENT CLINTON, TO REINFORCE THE USG
CONCERN THAT THERE BE GOOD FAITH COMPLIANCE WITH THE KAMPALA
CEASE-FIRE BY ALL PARTIES AND TO EXPLORE WAYS OF ACCELERATING
THE FULL IMPLEMENTATION OF THE LUSAKA AGREEMENT WITH REGIONAL
LEADERS.


3. (C) ONE OF THE DELEGATION'S GOALS IS TO GAIN AN UNDERSTANDING
OF EACH PARTY'S BOTTOM LINE SECURITY REQUIREMENTS IN ORDER TO
HELP CRAFT INITIATIVES THAT EACH SIDE COULD TAKE THAT WOULD
INCREASE TRUST AND CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT-TERM AND ENABLE
THE SIGNATORIES TO ACCELERATE THE FULL IMPLEMENTATION OF THE
LUSAKA AGREEMENT.


4. (C) S/E WOLPE ASSURED PRESIDENT MUGABE THAT THE USG'S
DEDICATION TO LUSAKA INCLUDED THE FULL RESTORATION OF
CONGOLESE SOVEREIGNTY AND TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY, ADDING THAT
"THIS IS THE MESSAGE I WILL BE CARRYING TO RWANDA AND UGANDA."


5. (C) S/W WOLPE FURTHER EXPLAINED THAT IT IS THE USG'S VIEW
THAT THE EXTERNAL SIGNATORIES ARE LOOKING SERIOUSLY FOR A WAY
OUT OF THE CONGO. FROM THE USG PERSPECTIVE, THEREFORE, THE
TIME IS RIPE TO ADVANCE THE PEACE PROCESS. HE NOTED THAT THE
DELEGATION WAS ENCOURAGED BY THE REPORT IT HAD RECEIVED FROM
ZIMBABWE'S MINISTERS OF JUSTICE AND FOREIGN AFFAIRS
CONCERNING THE RECENT VICTORIA FALLS MEETING BUT WOULD
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PARTICULARLY WELCOME PRESIDENT MUGABE'S ACCOUNT OF THE
PROCEEDINGS.

BACKGROUND OF THE VIC FALLS MEETING


6. (C) ACCORDING TO PRESIDENT MUGABE, THE IDEA FOR THE MEETING
CAME UP IN A CONVERSATION HE HAD IN CAIRO INVOLVING HIMSELF,
CHISSANO, DOS SANTOS, AND MUSEVENI. NOTE. EXPLAINING THE
ORIGINS OF THIS DISCUSSION, MUGABE SAID HE HAD FORTUITOUSLY
STUMBLED UPON WHAT WAS IN FACT AN EXCHANGE BETWEEN MUSEVENI
AND DOS SANTOS THAT WAS BEING FACILITATED BY CHISSANO. END
NOTE.) MUGABE SAID THAT HE ASKED "WHY CAN'T WE MAKE UP OUR
OWN MINDS (TO GET OUT OF THE CONGO)? WE ARE 'BIG PEOPLE';
WHY MUST WE WAIT FOR A STICK FROM THE UN TO DRIVE US
FORWARD?" CHISSANO AND MUSEVENI AGREED AND CHISSANO PROPOSED
AN INFORMAL MEETING OF THE EXTERNAL LUSAKA SIGNATORIES. THE
PURPOSE OF THE MEETING WOULD BE TO FIND A WAY FOR THE
REGIONAL ACTORS TO IMPLEMENT THE CEASE-FIRE PROCESS
THEMSELVES IN THE EVENT THAT THE UN DEPLOYMENT WAS DELAYED.
THE LEADERS SUBSEQUENTLY AGREED TO MEET IN VIC FALLS ON 21
APRIL. UNFORTUNATELY, THREE DAYS BEFORE THE MEETING DATE,
DOS SANTOS BACKED OUT, ARGUING THAT ALL OF THE LEADERS HAD
BEEN INVITED TO A MALARIA CONFERENCE IN ABUJA TWO DAYS LATER,
AND IT WOULD BE MORE EFFICIENT TO MAKE ABUJA THE VENUE OF THE

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DODE-00 DOEE-00 DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-01
OIGO-02 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-01 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00
IO-00 L-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-01
PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 TRSE-00
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P 251448Z APR 00
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5847
INFO USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY
NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY KAMPALA
AMEMBASSY KINSHASA
AMEMBASSY PRETORIA
AMEMBASSY LUANDA
AMEMBASSY LUSAKA
AMEMBASSY MAPUTO
AMEMBASSY WINDHOEK
AMEMBASSY KIGALI
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY PARIS

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STATE FOR AF A/S SUSAN RICE, DAS POWELL
USUN FOR AMBASSADORS HOLBROOKE AND SODERBERG
USUN/W FOR ORR
STATE PASS DOD FOR OSD/PKHA/JSCHEAR
NSC FOR GAYLE SMITH AND ERIC SCHWARTZ
LONDON FOR PFLAUMER
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/25/10
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR CG ZI
SUBJECT: S/E WOLPE DISCUSSES DRC DISENGAGEMENT AND
DISARMAMENT WITH ZIMBABWEAN PRESIDENT

DRC DISCUSSION AS WELL. PAUL KAGAME, TOO, WAS UNABLE TO COME
BECAUSE OF HIS PENDING INAUGURATION; HOWEVER, HE SENT HIS FOREIGN
MINISTER AND EMMANUEL GASANA.

MUGABE'S ACCOUNT OF THE MEETING


7. (C) PRESIDENT MUGABE REPORTED THAT THE MEETING WAS "POSITIVE,
STRAIGHTFORWARD, HONEST." IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE JMC/PC
KAMPALA CEASE-FIRE AGREEMENT, THE LEADERS AGREED TO COMMIT
THEMSELVES TO HONOR THE 30-KILOMETER DMZ. THEY ALSO AGREED
TO ESTABLISH A REGIONAL MONITORING MECHANISM COMPOSED OF
JOINT TEAMS FROM EACH PARTY TO SUPERVISE THE CEASE-FIRE IN
THE EVENT THAT THE UN DEPLOYMENT IS DELAYED. THE MEANS TO
IMPLEMENT THE SELF-MONITORING REGIME - TRANSPORTATION,
FUNDING, ETC. -- ARE YET TO BE WORKED OUT.


8. (C) PRESIDENT MUGABE INSISTED THAT THE KEY TO MAINTAINING
FAITH IN THE SELF-MONITORING APPROACH WOULD BE APPROPRIATE
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ACTIONS ON THE GROUND. IN TIME, WITH CONCRETE PROGRESS IN THE
DISENGAGEMENT OF FORCES, CONFIDENCE WILL GROW. HOWEVER, HE
ADDED A NOTE OF CAUTION: "WE WILL STILL NEED TO RESERVE A
LITTLE OF OURSELVES IN CASE THE OTHER SIDE DOES WHAT WE FEAR
THEY WILL DO. IF THEY DO NOT (BREAK THEIR COMMITMENTS),THEN
BOTH SIDES WILL BEGIN TO RELAX."


9. (C) THE PRESIDENT ENDED HIS DESCRIPTION OF THE CONGO PORTION
OF THE VIC FALLS MEETING BY SAYING "NOW WE HAVE TO INFORM
CHILUBA ABOUT THE MEETING THAT HAPPENED IN HIS BACK YARD."
HE ADDED, JOKINGLY, THAT "CHILUBA WILL BE WONDERING WHAT IS
GOING ON." MUGABE THEN TURNED TO THE SECOND SUBJECT
DISCUSSED AT VIC FALLS - ZIMBABWE'S LAND REFORM ISSUE AND
POLITICAL CRISIS - AND LAUNCHED INTO A VERY LENGTHY AND
DETAILED EXPOSITION OF GOZ VIEWS AND ACTIONS (REPORTED
SEPTEL).

BACK TO THE DRC


10. (C) RETURNING TO THE SUBJECT OF THE LUSAKA PROCESS, S/E
WOLPE ASKED THE ZIMBABWEAN PRESIDENT WHAT THF USG COULD DO AT
THIS POINT TO ACCELERATE FULL IMPLEMENTATION OF THE LUSAKA
AGREEMENT. SPECIFICALLY, WOLPE ASKED, WOULD IT BE POSSIBLE
FOR THE DRC AND ITS ALLIES TO COMMIT TO ACTIONS THAT WOULD
MITIGATE RWANDAN AND UGANDAN SECURITY CONCERNS, IN EXCHANGE
FOR AN UGANDAN AND RWANDAN COMMITMENT TO A MORE RAPID
REDEPLOYMENT AND WITHDRAWAL OF THEIR FORCES.


11. (C) PRESIDENT MUGABE REPLIED THAT, FOR THEIR PART, RWANDA AND
UGANDA COULD BEST DEMONSTRATE THEIR COMMITMENT BY AN ACTUAL
WITHDRAWAL FROM THE DRC. HE FURTHER SAID THAT RWANDA,
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UGANDA, AND BURUNDI COULD BEST GUARANTEE THEIR SECURITY BY
DEDICATING THEMSELVES TO GOOD RELATIONS WITH THEIR NEIGHBORS
AND AMONG THEIR OWN POPULATIONS.


12. (C) AS FOR THE NON-STATE ACTORS, MUGABE INSISTED THAT
HUNTING THEM DOWN WOULD BE IMPRACTICAL AND WOULD NOT RESULT
IN THEIR ELIMINATION. HE ADDED THAT THE NON-STATE ACTORS
WERE RELATIVELY FEW IN COMPARISON TO THE "HUGE ARMIES" OF THE
REBELS. HE DID ACKNOWLEDGE THAT "BOTH GROUPS MUST BE MADE
TOOTHLESS" AND POINTED OUT THE NEED FOR AN EFFECTIVE
REINTEGRATION PROGRAM.


13. (C) S/E WOLPE AGAIN RETURNED TO THE POSSIBILITY OF THE DRC
AND ITS ALLIES AGREEING TO CEASE RE-SUPPLY AND TRAINING OF
THE EX-FAR/INTERAHAMWE IN RETURN FOR A RECIPROCAL COMMITMENT
BY RWANDA AND UGANDA TO ACCELERATED REDFPLOYMENT AND
WITHDRAWAL. THIS TIME MUGABE REPLIED THAT HE WOULD CONSIDER
MAKING SUCH A COMMITMENT IF IT WOULD CONVINCE RWANDA AND
UGANDA TO WITHDRAW FROM THE DRC. HE ADDED THAT HE WOULD ALSO
WANT RWANDA AND UGANDA TO CEASE THEIR TRAINING AND RESUPPLY
OF THEIR REBEL CLIENTS.

MUGABE ON RELATIONS WITH RWANDA, UGANDA, BURUNDI

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DODE-00 DOEE-00 DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-01
OIGO-02 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-01 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00
IO-00 L-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-01
PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 TRSE-00
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P 251448Z APR 00
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5848
INFO USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY
NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY KAMPALA
AMEMBASSY KINSHASA
AMEMBASSY PRETORIA
AMEMBASSY LUANDA
AMEMBASSY LUSAKA
AMEMBASSY MAPUTO
AMEMBASSY WINDHOEK
AMEMBASSY KIGALI
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY PARIS

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STATE FOR AF A/S SUSAN RICE, DAS POWELL
USUN FOR AMBASSADORS HOLBROOKE AND SODERBERG
USUN/W FOR ORR
STATE PASS DOD FOR OSD/PKHA/JSCHEAR
NSC FOR GAYLE SMITH AND ERIC SCHWARTZ
LONDON FOR PFLAUMER
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/25/10
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR CG ZI
SUBJECT: S/E WOLPE DISCUSSES DRC DISENGAGEMENT AND
DISARMAMENT WITH ZIMBABWEAN PRESIDENT


14. (C) PRESIDENT MUGABE ACKNOWLEDGED THAT WHILE RELATIONS WITH
UGANDA HAD IMPROVED, THEY WERE STILL DIFFICULT WITH RWANDA. HE
SAID THAT THIS WAS PERHAPS DUE TO LACK OF SUFFICIENT
CONTACT. HE NOTED THAT THE RWANDAN FOREIGN MTNISTER INFORMED
THOSE AT VIC FALLS THAT KAGAME, AS PRESIDENT, HAD COMMITTED
HIMSELF TO BE BOUND BY ANY DECISION MADE BY THE LUSAKA
SIGNATORIES. MUGABE ADDED, HOWEVER, THAT KAGAME APPEARED TO
BE THE ONE WHO WANTS TO CONTINUE THE WAR.


15. (C) S/E WOLPE TOLD PRESIDENT MUGABE THAT HE HAS BEGUN TO
SENSE AN EVOLUTION IN RWANDA'S THINKING. THE RWANDANS NOW
APPEAR WILLING TO DIFFERENTIATE BETWEEN INDIVIDUALS AND
GROUPS WITH REGARD TO THE CULPABILITY OF EXFAR/INTERAHAMWE
FORCES IN THE DRC FOR THE GENOCIDE. THE RWANDANS, HE SAID,
HAVE ALSO EXPRESSED THEIR WILLINGNESS TO ACCEPT INTERNATIONAL
MONITORING OF THE REINTEGRATION PROCESS. S/E WOLPE ASSURED
MUGABE THAT THE USG WOULD WORK WITH THE RWANDANS TO DETERMINE
THEIR BOTTOM LINE AND TO ENSURE THAT IT IS REASONABLE.
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16. (C) MUGABE COMMENTED THAT IF THE POLITICAL SYSTEMS IN RWANDA
AND BURUNDI COULD NOT ACCOMMODATE THE RETURN OF
EX-COMBATANTS, AND IF THERE ARE NO PROVISIONS FOR
REINTEGRATION, THEIR CITIZENS WILL NOT WANT TO RETURN.
HOWEVER, IF A REHABILITATION MECHANISM EXISTS, THOSE WHO CAN
RETURN WILL DO SO.

DEALING WITH KABILA


17. (C) S/E WOLPE TOLD MUGABE OF USG EFFORTS TO CONVINCE KABILA
THAT HE COULD BENEFIT POLITICALLY BY COOPERATING WITH THE
NATIONAL DIALOGUE'S FACILITATOR AND ADHERING TO THE LUSAKA
AGREEMENT. HE ASKED MUGABE FOR HIS GENERAL ASSESSMENT OF
KABILA'S WILLINGNESS TO NOW BE BOUND BY THE LUSAKA AGREEMENT.


18. (C) MUGABE REPLIED THAT KARILA WAS DOING HIS BEST TO ADHERE
TO THE LUSAKA AGREEMENT ALTHOUGH HE IS DISAPPOINTED THAT IT
DID NOT CONTAIN AN EXPLICIT DEMAND FOR THE IMMEDIATE
WITHDRAWAL OF RWANDA AND UGANDA. REGARDING THE NATIONAL
DIALOGUE, MUGABE SAID THAT KABILA HAD COMPLAINED THAT LUSAKA
WAS RESTRICTING HIM FROM ORGANIZING POIJTICAL SUPPORT AMONG
HIS OWN PEOPLE. MUGABE SAID HE HAD EXPLAINED TO KABILA THAT
THERE WAS NO RESTRICTION ON HIS ABILITY TO CONSULT WITH
OTHERS, BUT THAT HE SHOULD DO NOTHING THAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE
AN EFFORT TO SUPPLANT PRESIDENT MASIRE'S ROLE AS THE
FACILITATOR OF THE NATIONAL DIALOGUE. HE SAID THAT HE HAD
SUCCEEDED IN DISSUADING KABILA FROM PROCEEDING WITH HIS PLANS
TO HOLD PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN ADVANCE OF THE
INTER-CONGOLESE DIALOGUE.

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19. (C) MUGABE CLAIMED THAT THE LACK OF COOPERATION MASIRE
EXPERIENCED DURING HIS FIRST VISIT WAS PARTLY THE FAULT OF
REGIONAL LEADERS WHO HAD PROVIDED NO SUPPORT TO MASIRE. FROM
KABILA'S OBSERVATIONS, IT APPEARED THAT THE IACK OF
COOPERATION DURING HIS SECOND VISIT TO THE DRC WAS DUE TO
LACK OF COORDINATION: KABILA CLAIMED NO ONE KNEW MASIRE WAS
COMING OR WHAT HIS AGENDA WOULD BE. MUGABE HIMSELF THOUGHT
THAT MASIRE GAVE THE IMPRESSION THAT HE WAS TAKING HIS
INSTRUCTIONS FROM THE UN AS OPPOSED TO THE OAU AND HE FELT
THAT THIS WAS INAPPROPRIATE.


20. (C) MUGABE ASKED WOLPE WHY MASIRE WAS SO DEPENDENT ON THE
UN FOR STAFF AND ADMINISTRATIVE SUPPORT. S/E WOLPE EXPLAINED
THAT IT WAS THE OAU SECRETARY-GENERAL WHO HAD INDICATED THE
OAU LACKED SUFFICIENT CAPACITY AND HAD URGED A SIGNIFICANT UN
ROLE. MUGABE OBJECTED SHARPLY - SAYING PERHAPS THERE WAS A
PROBLEM AT THE OAU THAT NEEDED TO BE ADDRESSED- MUGABE THEN
SAID THAT HE HAD HEARD, TO HIS CONSIDERABLE DISTRESS, THAT
MASIRE HAD TAKEN ON A CANADIAN AS A TOP ADVLSOR. THIS WAS
WRONG, HE ASSERTED. THIS IS SOMETHING THE OAU SHOULD BE
HANDLING. WOLPE THEN EXPLAINED - TO MUGA8E'S OBVIOUS
ANNOYANCE -- THAT THE CANADIANS HAD PLAYED A ROLE IN HELPING
MASIRE DEVELOP A PLAN AND BUDGET, AND THAT THE BRITS HAD
RESPONDED TO MASIRE'S DESPERATE NEED FOR ASSISTANCE BY

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INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 SMEC-00 INL-01 DINT-00
DODE-00 DOEE-00 DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-01
OIGO-02 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-01 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00
IO-00 L-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-01
PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 TRSE-00
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P 251448Z APR 00
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5849
INFO USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY
NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY KAMPALA
AMEMBASSY KINSHASA
AMEMBASSY PRETORIA
AMEMBASSY LUANDA
AMEMBASSY LUSAKA
AMEMBASSY MAPUTO
AMEMBASSY WINDHOEK
AMEMBASSY KIGALI
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY PARIS

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STATE FOR AF A/S SUSAN RICE, DAS POWELL
USUN FOR AMBASSADORS HOLBROOKE AND SODERBERG
USUN/W FOR ORR
STATE PASS DOD FOR OSD/PKHA/JSCHEAR
NSC FOR GAYLE SMITH AND ERIC SCHWARTZ
LONDON FOR PFLAUMER
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/25/10
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR CG ZI
SUBJECT: S/E WOLPE DISCUSSES DRC DISENGAGEMENT AND
DISARMAMENT WITH ZIMBABWEAN PRESIDENT

SECONDING AN ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICER TO SET UP HIS BOTSWANA
OFFICE. HOWEVER, EVEN NOW, WOLPE NOTED, MASIRE HAS
VIRTUALLY NO ONE WITH THE APPROPRIATE EXPERTISE WORKING WITH
HIM. MASIRE WAS MAKING EVERY EFFORT, WORKING WITH THE OAU
AND THE UN, TO RECRUIT APPROPRIATE PERSONNEL, PARTICULARLY AFRICAN
PERSONNEL. AT THE END OF THE DAY, HOWEVER, WOLPE TOLD MUGABE, THE
FACILITATION EFFORT WOULD REQUIRE ASSISTANCE AND SUPPORT FROM MANY
INTERNATIONAL SOURCES.

MORE ON ACCELERATING IMPLEMENTATION


21. (C) IN A CONCLUDING COMMENT, SPECIAL ADVISOR PRENDERGAST
OBSERVED THAT THE PURPOSE OF S/E WOLPE'S CURRENT MISSION
APPEARED TO TRACK CLOSELY THAT OF THE VIC FALLS MEETING: TO
BUILD ON THE MOMENTUM OF KAMPALA. HE NOTED THAT WHILE THE
DEVIL MAY BE IN THE DETAILS, IN THIS INSTANCE SALVATION COULD
EXIST IN THE SPECIFICS. SPECIFIC MECHANISMS COULD UNLOCK
THE ABILITY OF THE SIGNATORY PARTIES TO MOVE FORWARD MORE
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RAPIDLY IN THE IMPLEMENTATION OF LUSAKA. FOR EXAMPLE,
RECIPROCAL COMMITMENTS REGARDING REDEPLOYMENT AND THE
DEMOBILIZATION OF ARMED-GROUPS COULD ACCELERATE PLANNING AND
DEEPEN COMMITMENTS TO WITHDRAWAL BY KEY SIGNATORIES. BROADER
CONCEPTUAL AGREEMENTS THAT ARE IN EACH PARTY'S INTEREST WILL
HELP CONSOLIDATE AGREEMENTS OF MORE IMMEDIATE CONCERN MADE IN
KAMPALA. THE USG HAD FURTHER IDEAS ON THESE ISSUES THAT WE
LOOKED FORWARD TO DISCUSSING WITH HIM, WITH ZIMBABWE'S
REPRESENTATIVES ON THE JMC/PC, AND WITH THE OTHER LUSAKA
SIGNATORIES.

COMMENTS


22. (C) MUGABE HAS CLEARLY INTENSIFIED HIS SEARCH FOR A WAY OUT
OF THE CONGO. BUT HIS EXIT WILL NOT BE PAVED WITH
COMPROMISES THAT WOULD CALL INTO QUESTION HIS GOVERNMENT'S
REASONS FOR INTERVENING IN THE FIRST PLACE. HE APPEARS
INTERESTED IN THE NOTION OF PACKAGING MORE SPECIFIC
COMMITMENTS REGARDING THE DISARMAMENT OF THE ARMED GROUPS
WITH ACCELERATED REDEPLOYMENTS AND WITHDRAWALS. WHILE HE
REMAINS DEEPLY SUSPICIOUS ABOUT KAGAME'S INTENTIONS, MUGABE
RECOGNIZES THE IMPORTANCE OF ADDRESSING RWANDAN SECURITY
CONCERNS.


23. (C) MUGABE IS NOT READY TO ABANDON KABILA, OR TO EVEN BEGIN
THE DISCUSSION OF ALTERNATIVES - AT LEAST WITH THE USG.
HOWEVER, HE, TOGETHER WITH HIS NAMIBIAN AND ANGOLAN ALLIES,
WILL INCREASE THEIR PRESSURE ON KABILA TO IMPLEMENT THE
LUSAKA AGREEMENT, PARTICULARLY REGARDING CEASE-FIRE
COMMITMENTS AND THE NATIONAL DIALOGUE. HIS DESIRE TO MOVE
FORWARD ON WITHDRAWAL WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY KEEP HIM FOCUSED
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ON THE NEED TO KEEP KABILA IN LINE, AND PROVIDES OPENINGS TO
EXPLORE WITH RWANDA AND UGANDA WHAT THEY ARE WILLING TO DO TO
EXPEDITE FINAL IMPLEMENTATION OF THE LUSAKA CEASEFIRE
AGREEMENT. END COMMENT.

MCDONALD

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