MUGABE USES THE LAND ISSUE AS A SMOKESCREEN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 HARARE 002221

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH

LONDON FOR PFLAUMER

PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS

DEPARTMENT ALSO FOR SA/INS - STEVEN KRAFT

PASS USAID FOR A/AID R. MCCALL AND AFR/SA - W. JEFFERS
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 02221 01 OF 04 251426Z

PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER

USDOC FOR 4510/ITA/ANESA/OA/SMILLER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/25/2010
TAGS: PGOV PINR ECON ZI
SUBJECT: MUGABE USES THE LAND ISSUE AS A SMOKESCREEN

REF: (A) HARARE 2202 (NOTAL)
(B) PRETORIA 2820 (NOTAL)

CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR TOM MCDONALD FOR REASONS 1.5
(B) AND (D).

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) AS CURRENTLY INVOKED BY PRESIDENT MUGABE AND
SENIOR RULING ZANU-PF PARTY OFFICIALS, THE LAND REFORM
ISSUE IS A CANARD. IN OUR JUDGMENT, THE ZIMBABWEAN
PRESIDENT AND PARTY DO NOT WANT A NEAR TERM RESOLUTION
TO THE LAND QUESTION, BUT RATHER WANT TO KEEP THE
SITUATION ON THE GROUND UNSETTLED. CONSEQUENTLY, WHILE
WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO URGE THE GOZ TO RETURN TO THE
AGREEMENTS REACHED AT THE SEPTEMBER 1998 DONORS'
CONFERENCE, WE SHOULD NOT SEARCH FOR NEW OFFERS TO PUT
ON THE TABLE, IN RESPONSE TO MUGABE'S BLACKMAIL. THE
ZIMBABWEAN PRESIDENT IS BANKING ON THE FACT THAT BETWEEN
APPEALING TO BLACK NATIONALIST SENTIMENT AND
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INTIMIDATING WHITES, AND, INCREASINGLY MORE BRUTALLY,
BLACK FARM WORKERS, HIS PARTY WILL WIN THE STILL
UNSCHEDULED PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION. FROM THE LITTLE WE
HAVE BEEN ABLE TO ELICIT ON THE SUBJECT, REGIONAL
LEADERS MEETING MUGABE IN VICTORIA FALLS ON APRIL 22
LIKELY SAID THAT THE SPECTACLE OF VIOLENCE IN ZIMBABWE
AND ITS ATTENDANT BAD PUBLICITY WAS HURTING THE SOUTHERN
AFRICAN REGION. WE ARE CONCERNED THAT MUGABE MAY HAVE
INTERPRETED THEIR MESSAGE TO MEAN THAT HE MUST KEEP HIS
INTIMIDATION CAMPAIGN BELOW THE RADAR SCREEN. WE THINK
MUGABE MIGHT YIELD TO INTERNATIONAL PRESSURE,
PARTICULARLY IF IT COMES FROM A GROUP LIKE THE
COMMONWEALTH. WE SHOULD HELP FACILITATE THAT, ALTHOUGH
NOT TAKE THE LEAD. AT THE SAME TIME, WE SHOULD CONTINUE
OUR OWN CAMPAIGN OF QUIET DIPLOMATIC PRESSURE ON THE
GOVERNMENT COMBINED WITH EFFORTS AIMED AT BUILDING
BRIDGES AMONG POLITICAL ADVERSARIES IN ZIMBABWE. END
SUMMARY.

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THE LAND ISSUE IS A SMOKESCREEN
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2. (C) ROBERT MUGABE HAS RESUSCITATED HIS OLD STANDBY,
THE LAND ISSUE, AS A WAY TO DRUM UP NATIONALIST
SENTIMENT AND GARNER VOTES IN THE PARLIAMENTARY
ELECTION. IN OUR RECENT CONVERSATIONS WITH THE
PRESIDENT AND WITH FOREIGN MINISTER STANISLAUS MUDENGE
WE HAVE REACHED THE CONCLUSION THAT, AS CURRENTLY USED
BY THE SENIOR ZANU-PF LEADERSHIP, THE ISSUE IS LITTLE
MORE THAN A SMOKESCREEN AND ELECTRIC CATTLE PROD TO
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INTIMIDATE AND DIRECT THE NATION. SUGGESTING STEPS THE
ZIMBABWEAN PRESIDENT MIGHT TAKE, AMBASSADOR MCDONALD
ASKED PRESIDENT MUGABE POINT BLANK WHETHER HE WAS
INTERESTED IN RESULTS OR POLITICKING. THE ZIMBABWEAN
CHIEF EXECUTIVE DEMURRED.


3. (C) IN OUR VIEW, IT IS CLEAR THAT THE LAND AND ITS
WHITE OWNERSHIP IS BEING USED AS A VERY BLUNT POLITICAL
INSTRUMENT BY MUGABE, WHO HAS PERSONALLY TAKEN CHARGE OF
THE ISSUE, TO BLUDGEON THE NATION TO DECLARE ITS NEAR-
UNANIMOUS FEALTY TO HIMSELF. IF THE GOAL OF JUST LAND
REFORM WERE TO BE PURSUED HONESTLY AND WITH DUE CONCERN
FOR ECONOMIC, SOCIAL AND AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY
CONCERNS, THE PRINCIPLES AND ACTION PLAN HAMMERED OUT IN
THE SEPTEMBER 1998 LAND DONORS CONFERENCE WOULD BE
ADHERED TO. THEY, HOWEVER, HAVE BEEN CAST ASIDE ALONG
WITH DUE PROCESS, LAW AND ORDER ENFORCEMENT AND RESPECT
FOR THE JUDICIAL SYSTEM. APPROPRIATE LAND REFORM IS A
MATTER OF SOCIAL JUSTICE, BUT THERE IS NO ECONOMIC CASE
FOR WILLY-NILLY LAND REDISTRIBUTION. IN FACT THE
OPPOSITE IS TRUE, AS THE COMMERCIAL FARMERS ARE
EFFICIENT AND PRODUCE THE MAJORITY OF THE COUNTRY'S
EXPORT EARNINGS WHILE LOOKING AFTER THE ASSET. THE
POLITICAL ELEMENT IS STRONG, ESPECIALLY BEFORE AN
ELECTION WHERE THERE IS A VIABLE OPPOSITION AND WHEN THE
MANIFESTATIONS OF THE ECONOMIC CALAMITY WROUGHT BY

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FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5843
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 04 HARARE 002221

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH

LONDON FOR PFLAUMER

PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS

DEPARTMENT ALSO FOR SA/INS - STEVEN KRAFT

PASS USAID FOR A/AID R. MCCALL AND AFR/SA - W. JEFFERS
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 02221 02 OF 04 251426Z

PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER

USDOC FOR 4510/ITA/ANESA/OA/SMILLER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/25/2010
TAGS: PGOV PINR ECON ZI
SUBJECT: MUGABE USES THE LAND ISSUE AS A SMOKESCREEN

MUGABE AND THE PARTY MAKE LIFE A DAILY STRUGGLE FOR THE
MAJORITY. THESE ARE MADE WORSE BY THE REALIZATION THAT
TWENTY YEARS OF PROMISES TO THE PEASANTRY ON LAND
REDISTRIBUTION HAS ONLY SEEN MUGABE'S CRONIES BECOME
SOME OF THE LARGEST LAND OWNERS OF ALL.


4. (C) OBSERVERS AND PARTICIPANTS ON ALL SIDES AGREE
THAT PROGRESS SINCE THE SEPTEMBER 1998 CONFERENCE HAS
BEEN SLOWER THAN ENVISIONED. THE GOZ'S SMALL BUDGET
ALLOCATION DID NOT GO FAR, A FACT THAT SLOWED DOWN DONOR
SUPPORT. THE FOREIGN MINISTER TOLD THE AMBASSADOR IN A
SEPARATE MEETING APRIL 22 THAT THE SEPTEMBER 1998 LAND
DONORS' CONFERENCE WAS NOT ONLY A WASTE OF TIME BUT A
"FAILURE," STATING THAT SINCE THE DONORS DID NOT PONY UP
CASH TO BUY LAND, ZIMBABWE'S INTERESTS WERE NOT MET BY
IT. MUDENGE CONTINUED, "WHAT PROGRESS HAVE WE SEEN ON
LAND ACQUISITION SINCE THE CONFERENCE? NONE. THE
FARMERS HAVE BLOCKED IT IN THE COURTS AND THE BRITISH
HAVE ACTIVELY STOPPED THE WORLD BANK FROM PROVIDING
FUNDS. NOW, WITH THE NEW LAW, WE WILL FINALLY HAVE
PROGRESS."

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MOVING THE GOALPOSTS AND STIRRING THE POT
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5. (C) THERE ALSO HAS BEEN MOVEMENT ON THE FARM
INVASION FRONT. INITIALLY, SENIOR GOVERNMENT MINISTERS
ASSURED US THE WAR VETERANS OCCUPATION WOULD BE RESOLVED
ONCE THE CONSTITUTION WAS AMENDED WITH A LAND CLAUSE.
NOW THE GOAL POSTS HAVE MOVED: THE INVASIONS WILL BE
CALLED OFF WHEN 841 PREVIOUSLY DESIGNATED FARMS, WHOSE
DESIGNATION WAS CHALLENGED IN COURT, ARE WILLINGLY
TURNED OVER TO THE GOVERNMENT WITHOUT CONCERN FOR THE
PETTY DETAIL OF PAYMENT.


6. (C) MUGABE AND COMPANY HAVE A STAKE IN KEEPING THE
TEMPERATURE HIGH ON THIS TOPIC. HE IS SENDING THREE
CABINET MEMBERS, INDUSTRY AND COMMERCE MINISTER NATHAN
SHAMUYARIRA, LOCAL GOVERNMENT AND HOUSING MINISTER JOHN
NKOMO AND MUDENGE, TO LONDON TO DISCUSS A COMPENSATION
PLAN WITH THE BRITISH. HE KNOWS THAT THE TALKS WILL END
IN FAILURE BECAUSE HE HAS MADE MAXIMALIST DEMANDS THAT
SIMPLY CANNOT BE MET: FULL PAYMENT FOR 5 MILLION
HECTARES OF LAND TO CONSUMMATE HIS LAND REFORM AND
RESETTLEMENT PROGRAM (THE COMMERCIAL FARMERS
COLLECTIVELY OWN ABOUT 11 MILLION HECTARES). WE WOULD
WAGER THAT THE MINISTERS ARE GOING WITH THE INSTRUCTION
TO BRING HOME ALL OR NOTHING. IF THOSE TALKS FAIL,
MUGABE COULD WELL POINT OUT TO HIS DOMESTIC
CONSTITUENCY, "YOU SEE, IT WAS A WASTE OF TIME TO TALK
TO THE BRITISH," AND PERHAPS ORDER AN EVEN MORE
INTENSIFIED INVASION OF WHITE-OWNED LAND.
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DOES MUGABE REALLY CONTROL THE WAR VETERANS?
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7. (C) JUST HOW MUCH CONTROL OVER THE "WAR VETERANS"
MUGABE ACTUALLY HAS IS NOW THE 64,000 DOLLAR QUESTION.
OCCUPATIONS OCCUR IN WAVES IN CERTAIN PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY, WHILE IN OTHER PARTS IT'S QUIET. POLICE AND
OTHER SECURITY SERVICE MEMBERS SEEM TO WATCH THE GOINGS
ON WITHOUT HINDERING IT, BUT OCCASIONALLY COACH THE "WAR
VETERANS" ON WHAT FARMS TO TAKE AND WHICH TO AVOID.
INSTEAD OF RELYING ON THE GOVERNMENT OR PARTY TO
TRANSPORT THEM, WAR VETERANS NOW HAVE "REQUISITIONED"
VEHICLES FROM THE PROPERTIES THEY'VE OCCUPIED FOR
MOBILITY. MOREOVER, EMBOLDENED BY THE PROTECTION THEY
HAVE RECEIVED FROM THE GOVERNMENT FOR THEIR MISDEEDS,
THE WAR VETERANS HAVE TAKEN TO ISSUING THREATS ON WHICH
THEY DELIVER. THE TWO WHITE FARMERS RECEIVED DEATH
THREATS BEFORE THEY WERE KILLED. INDIVIDUALS NAMED IN A
PURPORTED WAR VETERANS' HIT LIST, INCLUDING BUSINESSMEN
STRIVE MASIYIWA, NIGEL CHANAKIRA, EDDIE CROSS AND ERIC
BLOCH, TAKE THE THREATS SERIOUSLY. MEMBERS OF THE
OPPOSITION MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC) FEAR FOR
THE LIFE OF ITS LEADER, MORGAN TSVANGIRAI, AND
DELIBERATELY KEPT HIM TRAVELING OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS

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FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5844
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 04 HARARE 002221

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH

LONDON FOR PFLAUMER

PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS

DEPARTMENT ALSO FOR SA/INS - STEVEN KRAFT

PASS USAID FOR A/AID R. MCCALL AND AFR/SA - W. JEFFERS
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 02221 03 OF 04 251426Z

PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER

USDOC FOR 4510/ITA/ANESA/OA/SMILLER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/25/2010
TAGS: PGOV PINR ECON ZI
SUBJECT: MUGABE USES THE LAND ISSUE AS A SMOKESCREEN

OUTSIDE ZIMBABWE UNDER HEAVY PROTECTION, AND PROVIDE
TIGHT SECURITY FOR HIM INSIDE THE COUNTRY.


8. (C) THE LESSENING -- FOR NOW -- OF ATTACKS ON WHITE
FARMERS IS WELCOME, BUT THIS HAS BEEN ACCOMPANIED BY
CONTINUING OCCUPATIONS OF FARMS AND NEW OCCUPATIONS OF
PREVIOUSLY UNTOUCHED PROPERTIES. MOREOVER, THERE HAS
BEEN AN APPARENT TACTICAL SHIFT. AS IF RECOGNIZING THAT
THE WHITE FARMERS ARE A MINISCULE PART OF THE
ELECTORATE, INTIMIDATION NOW SEEMS FOCUSED ON THE BLACK
FARM WORKERS, WHOSE LARGE NUMBERS MAKE THEIR VOTING
PREFERENCE, IN A FREE AND FAIR ELECTION, THE REAL PRIZE.
THESE WORKERS APPEAR TO HAVE SUFFERED INCREASING NUMBERS
OF BEATINGS, BURNINGS, MUTILATIONS, AND VERBAL THREATS
IN RECENT DAYS. ACCORDING TO THE ACCOUNTS REACHING THE
PRESS AND SOURCES OF THE EMBASSY, THESE ATTACKS HAVE
BEEN ACCOMPANIED BY WARNINGS THAT AFFILIATION WITH THE
MDC IS WHAT PLACES PEOPLE AT RISK; BY RECANTING AND
SUPPORTING ZANU-PF PEOPLE CAN BUY PROTECTION. IN ONE OF
THE LESS VIOLENT INCIDENTS COVERED IN THE LOCAL PRESS,
FOR EXAMPLE, ZANU-PF WORKERS DUG A PIT THEY TERMED
"TSVANGIRAI'S GRAVE," AND FORCED FARM WORKERS TO THROW
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INTO IT ALL THEIR MDC MEMBERSHIP CARDS, STICKERS,
PLACARDS, AND SO FORTH, WHICH THEN WERE BURNED.

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THE NEIGHBORS WEIGH IN
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9. (C) WE DO NOT KNOW WHAT TRANSPIRED BETWEEN REGIONAL
LEADERS ON THE ZIMBABWE LAND OCCUPATION ISSUE AT THE
RECENT VICTORIA FALLS CONFERENCE, BECAUSE THE GOZ
REFUSES TO DISCUSS THE SUBJECT WITH US (REF A). WE
SUSPECT, HOWEVER, THERE HAD TO HAVE BEEN AT LEAST A
SUGGESTION FROM THE REGIONAL LEADERS THAT THE
OCCUPATIONS, VIOLENCE AND THE ATTENDANT BAD PUBLICITY
ARE NOT GOOD FOR THE REGION. PRESIDENT MBEKI, FOR
EXAMPLE, FACES LIKELY ECONOMIC FALLOUT FROM AN
ACCELERATION OF THE ZIMBABWE MESS, AND ALREADY HAS FELT
THE IMPACT OF THE WORLD PERCEPTION OF THE PROBLEM AS
BEING ONE FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN AFRICA (REF B). U.S.
POLICYMAKERS, HOWEVER, MUST BE ALERT TO THE POSSIBILITY
THAT THIS MESSAGE, HOWEVER DELIVERED, WAS INTERPRETED BY
MUGABE TO MEAN THAT PUBLICITY ABOUT ATTACKS AND CHAOS
WAS THE BAD THING. BY SEEKING TO FRIGHTEN THE LARGELY
VOICELESS BLACK FARM WORKERS, MUGABE MAY HAVE THUS FOUND
A MEANS TO SLIP HIS CAMPAIGN OF INTIMIDATION BELOW THE
RADAR SCREEN OF WORLD PRESS AND REGIONAL LEADERS, AND
MEET HIS NEIGHBORS' CONCERNS.

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WHAT IS TO BE DONE?
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9. (C) EXPERIENCE HAS SHOWN THAT MUGABE DOES YIELD TO
PUBLIC PRESSURE. REGIONAL LEADERS HAVE TOLD HIM TO
ALTER HIS BEHAVIOR AND FROM EARLY SIGNS HE HAS, ALTHOUGH
TO A MORE SINISTER MODE. IN ADDITION TO REMAINING
ENGAGED WITH MUGABE AND ALL RELEVANT FIGURES ACROSS THE
POLITICAL SPECTRUM HERE, WE MUST KEEP HIS FEET TO THE
FIRE THAT HIS CAMPAIGN IS UNACCEPTABLE. WE HAVE ALREADY
RECOMMENDED THAT THE PRESIDENT PLACE A CALL IN THIS
CONNECTION TO MUGABE. IN ADDITION TO MUGABE HEARING
FROM HIS NEIGHBORS AND OURSELVES, A SIMILAR MESSAGE IS
LIKELY TO BE FORTHCOMING FROM THE EUROPEAN UNION,
POSSIBLY DELIVERED IN PERSON BY A TROIKA CONSISTING OF
THE FOREIGN MINISTERS OF PORTUGAL AND FRANCE AND THE
HEAD OF THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION. WHILE THE LATTER ARE
DOING THE RIGHT THING, THEIR ACTION IS LIKELY TO HAVE
MINIMAL IMPACT, AS THE MESSAGE WILL BE FROM THE RICH
WHITE MAN'S CLUB. A TOUGH MESSAGE THAT MUGABE CANNOT
CONTINUE TO HIDE BEHIND A LEGITIMATE DEVELOPMENT ISSUE
IN ORDER TO COMMIT CRIMES FROM THE COMMONWEALTH,
HOWEVER, MIGHT BE THE WAY TO GO. WE NOTE THAT THE
COMMONWEALTH ACTION GROUP IS SCHEDULED TO MEET THE FIRST
WEEK OF MAY. WHILE DEVELOPING A CONSENSUS WITHIN
COMMONWEALTH TO EXERT PRESSURE ON ZIMBABWE CLEARLY
SHOULD BE A BRITISH INITIATIVE, WE OUGHT TO EXPLORE WITH
LONDON WAYS IN WHICH WE CAN BE HELPFUL. WE ENVISION

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-------------- 4FA773 251426Z /38
O 251430Z APR 00
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5845
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 04 OF 04 HARARE 002221

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH

LONDON FOR PFLAUMER

PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS

DEPARTMENT ALSO FOR SA/INS - STEVEN KRAFT

PASS USAID FOR A/AID R. MCCALL AND AFR/SA - W. JEFFERS
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 02221 04 OF 04 251426Z

PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER

USDOC FOR 4510/ITA/ANESA/OA/SMILLER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/25/2010
TAGS: PGOV PINR ECON ZI
SUBJECT: MUGABE USES THE LAND ISSUE AS A SMOKESCREEN

SUCH HELP TO BE LOW COST AND MIGHT ENTAIL PLACING HIGH-
LEVEL TELEPHONE CALLS TO INTERNATIONAL INTERLOCUTORS.
AT THE SAME TIME, WE WILL BE EXPLORING WAYS LOCALLY IN
WHICH WE CAN BRIDGE DIFFERENCES AND PROMOTE DIALOGUE
BETWEEN ADVERSARIES, SUCH AS THE MDC AND ZANU-PF OR THE
COMMERCIAL FARMERS' UNION AND THE GOZ.

MCDONALD

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