MUGABE CONFERRED STATUS OF A CARICATURE OF AN AFRICAN LEADER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 HARARE 001842

SIPDIS

LONDON FOR PFLAUMER

PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS

PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 01842 01 OF 04 061031Z

PASS USAID FOR A/AID R. MCCALL AND AFR/SA - BILL JEFFERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/05/2010
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINS PINR SOCI MARR ZI
SUBJECT: MUGABE CONFERRED STATUS OF A CARICATURE OF AN
AFRICAN LEADER

REF: HARARE 1691 (NOTAL)

CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES EARL M. IRVING FOR
REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D).

--------------
SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) ZIMBABWE'S INCREASINGLY DESPERATE RULING PARTY,
ZANU-PF HAS RESORTED TO VIOLENCE, BOTH RHETORICAL AND
PHYSICAL TO COMBAT ITS ERODING POPULARITY. AS THREATS
ISSUED BY ZANU-PF ESCALATE, SO DO INCIDENTS OF
HARASSMENT AND MAYHEM AND THE DANGER THAT LESS STABLE
ELEMENTS IN ZANU-PF WILL INTERPRET THEM AS A GREEN LIGHT
FOR ANYTHING GOES. ONE POLICEMAN WAS KILLED APRIL 3 ON
A FARM OCCUPIED BY WAR VETERANS, WHOSE OWNER WAS
SEVERELY BEATEN. THE GOVERNMENT-CONTROLLED PRESS HAS
COLLABORATED IN THE GOVERNMENT'S EFFORT TO SOW CONFUSION
AND, SOME OBSERVERS SPECULATE, SET THE STAGE FOR A
CRACKDOWN OR EVEN A STATE OF EMERGENCY. THE MILITARY
AND SECURITY FORCES WILL BE THE FINAL ARBITERS OF THE
TRANSITION. IN THE EYE OF THE STORM IS ROBERT MUGABE,
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 03 HARARE 01842 01 OF 04 061031Z
WHOM ARCHBISHOP TUTU RECENTLY DUBBED A CARICATURE OF AN
AFRICAN LEADER. THE PRESIDENT SINCERELY BELIEVES THE
BRITISH, ZIMBABWEAN WHITES AND THE WEST IN GENERAL ARE
TO BLAME FOR HIS SETBACKS DUE TO THEIR COLLUSIVE,
TARGETED EFFORTS. HE SEEMS SERENELY UNAWARE OF THE
SERIOUSNESS OF THE SITUATION OF HIS PARTY AND COUNTRY.
WHILE SOME SORT OF BRIDGE BETWEEN GOVERNMENT AND
OPPOSITION NEEDS TO BE BUILT, IT IS IMPROBABLE THAT THAT
CAN BE ACCOMPLISHED PRIOR TO THE ELECTION. MUGABE MAY
WELCOME A VISIT BY A SENIOR AMERICAN OFFICIAL WHOSE
PRIVATE MESSAGE WOULD BE ONE OF RESTRAINT. AT THE SAME
TIME WE MUST WORK WITH THE SOUTH AFRICANS, WHO SET THE
STANDARD FOR PEACEFUL TRANSITION IN AFRICA, AND THE
INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS SECTOR TO PRESS FOR DOMESTIC
ORDER AND A PEACEFUL WAY FORWARD IN ZIMBABWE. END
COMMENT.

--------------
NO CONCERN FOR APPEARANCES
--------------


2. (U) SADLY, THE MAN OF THE CLOTH GOT IT RIGHT.
THINGS HAVE PROGRESSED TO SUCH A STATE IN ZIMBABWE THAT
ARCHBISHOP DESMOND TUTU IN UPPSALA, SWEDEN, ON APRIL 4
FOUND HIMSELF REFERRING TO PRESIDENT MUGABE AS A
"CARICATURE." "HE'S ALMOST A CARICATURE OF ALL THINGS
PEOPLE THINK BLACK AFRICAN LEADERS DO. HE SEEMS TO BE
WANTING TO MAKE A CARTOON OF HIMSELF," THE SOUTH AFRICAN
ANGLICAN ARCHBISHOP SAID. TUTU MADE HIS OBSERVATION IN
RESPONSE TO SWEDISH PRESS REPORTS THAT MUGABE, ONCE A
GREAT IDEALIST, AT THE INAUGURATION OF A WATER PROJECT
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 04 HARARE 01842 01 OF 04 061031Z
FUNDED BY THE SWEDISH AID AGENCY SAID DEATH WOULD BEFALL
THOSE WHO OPPOSED ZANU-PF. "I THINK HE'S BECOME
INCREASINGLY INSECURE, AND BECAUSE HE'S INSECURE HE'S
HITTING OUT," THE ARCHBISHOP SUMMARIZED.


3. (SBU) MUGABE IS JOINED BY SUPPORTERS WHO NO LONGER
SEEM TO CARE ABOUT THEIR INTERNATIONAL IMAGE,
PARTICULARLY AS THEY ABSORB MORE INTELLIGENCE THAT THEIR
SUPPORT BASE IS ERODING. ON APRIL 1 "LIBERATION WAR
VETERANS" (APPARENTLY MOSTLY YOUNG, UNEMPLOYED, PAID
ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS) ATTACKED UNARMED PEACE MARCHERS IN
DOWNTOWN HARARE, TARGETING SEVERAL WHITE SUPPORTERS OF
THE OPPOSITION FOR VIOLENCE. SEVERAL NCA ACTIVISTS WERE
ARRESTED FOR FAILING TO DISPERSE, DESPITE THE FACT THAT
THEY HAD A COURT ORDER ALLOWING THE "PEACE MARCH."
POLICE DETAINED THEM OVER THE WEEKEND, AND HAULED THEM
ON APRIL 3 BEFORE A JUDGE, WHO RELEASED THEM. IT IS
UNCLEAR WHETHER CHARGES HAVE BEEN DROPPED, HOWEVER.


4. (SBU) AT THE SAME TIME THE LEADERSHIP IS LOSING ITS
COMPOSURE. ON APRIL 2, IN AN EVENT RETURNING PROPERTY
BELONGING TO ZIPRA EX-COMBATANTS, VICE PRESIDENT JOSEPH
MSIKA SAID IN NDEBELE SOMETHING TO THE EFFECT THAT THE
OPPOSITION MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC) LEADER
MORGAN TSVANGIRAI, WHOM HE DESCRIBED IN THE FOULEST

CONFIDENTIAL

CONFIDENTIAL PTO6833

PAGE 01 HARARE 01842 02 OF 04 061031Z
ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 AMAD-01 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 INL-01
DINT-00 DODE-00 DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 ED-01
EUR-01 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-01 HHS-01 H-01 SSA-01
TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 L-00 AC-01 DCP-01 NSAE-00
OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00
P-00 SP-00 IRM-00 SSO-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00
R-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-01 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00
SAS-00 /017W
-------------- 4870CF 061031Z /38
O 061037Z APR 00
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5671
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY
DIA WASHINGTON DC//NMJIC-J2// PRIORITY
DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
USCINCEUR INTEL VAIHINGEN GE//ECJ2/DIA REP// PRIORITY
USCINCEUR VAIHINGEN GE//ECJ23-CH/POLAD// PRIORITY
JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK//DOOC// PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 04 HARARE 001842

SIPDIS

LONDON FOR PFLAUMER

PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS

PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 01842 02 OF 04 061031Z

PASS USAID FOR A/AID R. MCCALL AND AFR/SA - BILL JEFFERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/05/2010
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINS PINR SOCI MARR ZI
SUBJECT: MUGABE CONFERRED STATUS OF A CARICATURE OF AN
AFRICAN LEADER

LANGUAGE, WOULD WREST POWER FROM ZANU-PF "ONLY OVER OUR
DEAD BODIES." SIMILARLY, MINISTER OF HOME AFFAIRS
DUMISO DABENGWA, NORMALLY IDENTIFIED WITH ZANU-PF'S
MODERATE WING, MADE HARD-LINE NOISES IN THE PRESS APRIL
5, SAYING THAT THE GOVERNMENT HAD LEARNED THAT THE MDC
HAD WORKED OUT A STRATEGY TO CREATE ANARCHY IN THE
COUNTRY TO FORCE THE GOVERNMENT TO CANCEL THE
FORTHCOMING ELECTIONS. HE ADDED THAT VARIOUS STRICT
MEASURES TO COPE WITH PUBLIC DEMONSTRATIONS UNTIL THE
ELECTIONS ARE OVER WERE BEING CONTEMPLATED. MANY FEEL
THESE STATEMENTS ARE A PRECURSOR TO DECLARING A STATE OF
EMERGENCY.

--------------
ACTS OF VIOLENCE ON THE INCREASE
--------------


5. (C) WAR VETERANS OCCUPYING A FARM IN MARONDERA
SEVERELY BEAT ITS OWNER AND SHOT AND KILLED A POLICEMAN
ON APRIL 4, ALLEGEDLY BECAUSE THE LAW ENFORCEMENT
OFFICER WAS AN MDC SUPPORTER. THREE MEN WERE ARRESTED
BUT THEIR NAMES WERE NOT DIVULGED, A FACT THAT SUGGESTS
THEY WILL BE RELEASED QUICKLY. THAT SAME DAY, THE
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 03 HARARE 01842 02 OF 04 061031Z
ZIMBABWE BROADCASTING SERVICE GAVE CHARLES NDLOVU, WHO
EARLIER HAD PROCLAIMED IN THE GOVERNMENT-CONTROLLED
PRESS THAT THERE WOULD BE CIVIL WAR IF ZANU-PF DID NOT
WIN THE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION, A LENGTHY LARRY KING-
LIKE INTERVIEW SLOT, AS THOUGH HE WERE A HIGHLY REGARDED
OPINION MAKER. FROM HIS BULLY PULPIT NDLOVU ISSUED A
STREAM OF INVECTIVE AGAINST JUST ABOUT EVERYTHING AND
EVERYONE, BLAMING THE MDC MARCH PARTICIPANTS FOR
STARTING THE VIOLENCE ON APRIL 1. ONE MIGHT SURMISE
THAT BY ESCALATING THE RHETORIC MEANT TO BRING RACIAL
TENSION TO AN ALL TIME HIGH IN ZIMBABWE, THE PRESIDENT
IS GIVING ANTI-SOCIAL ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS WITH A LESS
THAN SOLID GRIP ON REALITY LICENSE TO KILL.


6. (C) MEANWHILE, A NUMBER OF MEMBERS OF PARLIAMENT,
ONCE MUGABE'S BLINDLY LOYAL SUPPORTERS, WILL NOT BE
RETURNING, HAVING LOST THEIR BID FOR SEATS IN PARTY
PRIMARY ELECTIONS CHARACTERIZED BY MANIPULATION AND
OUTRIGHT VOTE BUYING. AT LEAST FIVE ZANU-PF MEMBERS
WILL BE RUNNING IN THEIR OLD DISTRICTS AS INDEPENDENTS,
A FACT THAT SUGGESTS THAT THE PARTY ITSELF IS
FRAGMENTING. WITH SUCH A NUMBER OF DISGRUNTLED ELEMENTS
THERE IS A VERY REAL POSSIBILITY THAT ZANU-PF MAY NOT
MARSHAL THE 100 VOTES IT NEEDS TO PROMULGATE THE
CONSTITUTION'S SIXTEENTH AMENDMENT. MINISTER OF
JUSTICE, LEGAL AND PARLIAMENTARY AFFAIRS EMMERSON
MNANGAGWA TOLD DEPUTY ASSISTANT SECRETARY WITNEY
SCHNEIDMAN ON MARCH 23 THAT THE GOVERNMENT WILL USE
ADOPTION OF THE AMENDMENT TO CONVINCE THE WAR VETERANS
TO MOVE OFF THE FARMS. THE MINISTER ADDED THAT THE
VETERANS' OBEDIENCE WOULD BE AUTOMATIC. CONTACTED FOR
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 04 HARARE 01842 02 OF 04 061031Z
COMMENT APRIL 6, THE DIRECTOR OF THE ZIMBABWE NATIONAL
LIBERATION VETERAN'S ASSOCIATION, AGRIPPA GAVA, TOLD
EMBASSY'S POLITICAL ASSISTANT THAT IT'S NOT A QUESTION
OF THE AMENDMENT BECOMING LAW OR THE BRITISH PAYING FOR
LAND, "WE ARE NEVER MOVING OUT!"

--------------
LAND CLAUSE MAY NOT PASS
--------------


7. (C) IF THE AMENDMENT DOES NOT PASS WE FORESEE THE
WAR VETERANS/ZANU-PF YOUTH GOING ON A RAMPAGE, SMASHING
WINDOWS OF WHITE-OWNED SHOPS AND BLAMING THE OPPOSITION
FOR THE VIOLENCE. WE IMAGINE THAT THE NEXT STEP IN THIS
SCENARIO WOULD SEE PRESIDENT MUGABE ORDER THE ARREST OF
A NUMBER OF OPPOSITION FIGURES, INCLUDING MORGAN
TSVANGIRAI. ADDING TO THE PLAUSIBILITY OF THIS SCRIPT

SIPDIS
IS THE FACT THAT THERE ARE ALREADY PUBLIC ALLEGATIONS
THAT TSVANGIRAI HAS MISAPPROPRIATED ZIMBABWE CONGRESS OF
TRADE UNIONS FUNDS WHEN HE SERVED AS SECRETARY GENERAL,
WHICH ALSO MIGHT CREATE A PRETEXT FOR ARRESTING HIM ON
FRAUD CHARGES, AND ULTIMATELY DISQUALIFYING THE MDC
PRESIDENT FROM RUNNING FOR A PARLIAMENTARY SEAT. MUGABE
THEN MIGHT APPEAR ON NATIONAL TELEVISION TO MAKE A
DISTINCTLY LESS PRESIDENTIAL SPEECH THAN WHEN HE

CONFIDENTIAL

CONFIDENTIAL PTO6834

PAGE 01 HARARE 01842 03 OF 04 061031Z
ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 AMAD-01 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 INL-01
DINT-00 DODE-00 DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 ED-01
EUR-01 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-01 HHS-01 H-01 SSA-01
TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 L-00 AC-01 DCP-01 NSAE-00
OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00
P-00 SP-00 IRM-00 SSO-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00
R-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-01 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00
SAS-00 /017W
-------------- 4870D9 061031Z /38
O 061037Z APR 00
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5672
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY
DIA WASHINGTON DC//NMJIC-J2// PRIORITY
DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
USCINCEUR INTEL VAIHINGEN GE//ECJ2/DIA REP// PRIORITY
USCINCEUR VAIHINGEN GE//ECJ23-CH/POLAD// PRIORITY
JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK//DOOC// PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 04 HARARE 001842

SIPDIS

LONDON FOR PFLAUMER

PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS

PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 01842 03 OF 04 061031Z

PASS USAID FOR A/AID R. MCCALL AND AFR/SA - BILL JEFFERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/05/2010
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINS PINR SOCI MARR ZI
SUBJECT: MUGABE CONFERRED STATUS OF A CARICATURE OF AN
AFRICAN LEADER

CONCEDED LOSING THE CONSTITUTIONAL REFERENDUM, CALLING
THE MDC PUPPETS OF THE WHITES CONSPIRING TO BRING DOWN
THE NATION, AND BLAMING DEFEAT OF THE AMENDMENT ON AN
UNHOLY WESTERN/MDC ALLIANCE.

--------------
TAKING OFF THE GLOVES
--------------


8. (C) THE DEGREE OF THE RULING PARTY'S DESPERATION
ALSO CAN BE SEEN IN THE VICIOUSNESS OF THE GOVERNMENT-
CONTROLLED PRESS. ON APRIL 4 "THE HERALD" NEWSPAPER
PRINTED AN ARTICLE BASED ON AN UNCLEARED, BOOTLEG COPY
OF A UNDP REPORT TO ATTACK THE WORLD BANK AND THE
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND FOR ADVOCATING OPEN MARKETS
FOR A ZIMBABWE UNPREPARED TO COPE WITH IT. ON APRIL 5
THE HERALD PRINTED AN ARTICLE CLAIMING THE BRITISH HAD
CAPITULATED TO ALL PRESIDENT MUGABE'S DEMANDS AND WERE
NOW PREPARING TO FUND HIS RESETTLEMENT SCHEME. THE
INTENT HERE APPEARS TO BE TO SOW CONFUSION AND DIVIDE
PUBLIC OPINION. ALTERNATIVELY, THE GOVERNMENT STRATEGY
MAY BE TO SHOW THAT THE COMMERCIAL FARM INVASIONS ARE
PAYING OFF WITH THE BRITISH GOVERNMENT YIELDING TO THE
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 03 HARARE 01842 03 OF 04 061031Z
PRESSURE TO SUPPORT LAND REDISTRIBUTION, IN ADVANCE OF
THE GOVERNMENT'S ANTICIPATED ADOPTION OF AMENDMENT
NUMBER 16 TO ALLOW FOR LAND EXPROPRIATION.

--------------
THE SECURITY FORCES AS ARBITERS OF EVENTS
--------------


9. (C) WHERE THINGS WILL GO DEPENDS ON THE SECURITY
FORCES, AND WHETHER THEY WILL OBEY ORDERS TO INSTITUTE
MARTIAL LAW OR A STATE OF EMERGENCY WHEN THE PRESIDENT
DECIDES THE COUNTRY HAS BECOME OTHERWISE UNGOVERNABLE.
AT THE MOMENT WE HAVE INDICATIONS THAT BOTH THE ARMY AND
ESPECIALLY THE POLICE HAVE A NUMBER OF MDC SUPPORTERS.
INDEED, THE POOR POLICEMAN WHO MADE THE ULTIMATE
SACRIFICE ON A MARONDERA FARM WAS KILLED BECAUSE THE WAR
VETERANS THOUGHT THAT WAS WHERE HIS SYMPATHIES LAID.
THE 13,000 OR SO TROOPS IN THE CONGO HAVE HAD THEIR PER
DIEMS CUT, AND TO ADD INSULT TO INJURY THEY HAVE NOT
BEEN PAID IN FOUR MONTHS. WE THINK THAT WHILE THE
PRESIDENT SINCERELY WISHES TO BRING THE TROOPS HOME
BECAUSE OF DIMINISHING RETURNS AND THE COST TO THE
COUNTRY, THIS IS NOT THE MOMENT TO DO SO. HE DOES NOT
WANT A NUMBER OF DISGRUNTLED (AND PROBABLY UNEMPLOYED)
MEN BACK IN ZIMBABWE TO SWELL THE RANKS OF THE
OPPOSITION.


10. (C) SENIOR MILITARY FIGURES ARE WORRIED ABOUT
MORGAN TSVANGIRAI WINNING OVER 76 SEATS IN PARLIAMENT,
THE MAJORITY. UNLIKE PRESIDENT WADE IN SENEGAL,
TSVANGIRAI WAS NEVER PART OF THE GOVERNMENT AND IS

SIPDIS
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 04 HARARE 01842 03 OF 04 061031Z
THEREFORE NOT A KNOWN QUANTITY TO THEM. THE MDC LEADER
ALSO HAS MADE IT CLEAR HE WILL ISSUE NO PRE-EMPTIVE
PARDON FOR PRESIDENT MUGABE (OR ANYONE ELSE) SHOULD HIS
PARTY GAIN CONTROL OF GOVERNMENT, AS WADE DID FOR
EXITING PRESIDENT DIOUF. AT THIS WRITING IT IS
DIFFICULT TO IMAGINE TSVANGIRAI MUSTERING THE GRACE TO
ASK ROBERT MUGABE TO REPRESENT HIM AT AN EVENT AS
PRESTIGIOUS AS THE EU-AFRICA SUMMIT IN CAIRO. WHILE WE
HAVE HEARD THAT SENIOR MILITARY FIGURES, FOR EXAMPLE,
DEFENSE FORCE COMMANDER VITALIS ZVINAVASHE, HAVE EITHER
MET OR SENT RUNNERS TO TSVANGIRAI, WE SEE NO EVIDENCE
THAT THESE CONTACTS HAVE BORNE FRUIT OR IMPROVED THEIR
MUTUAL DISPOSITION. IT'S CLEAR THAT WHAT IS MISSING IS
SOME SORT OF BRIDGE THAT SPANS THE GULF OF DISTRUST AND
ALLEGIANCES BETWEEN THE TWO SIDES. MUGABE IS NO DIOUF,
AND IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER SUCH A BRIDGE CAN BE
BUILT.


11. (C) FINALLY, WE ARE NOT ENTIRELY CONVINCED MUGABE
IS READING THE SITUATION IN THE COUNTRY CORRECTLY. IN
THE PRESIDENT'S ANALYSIS, THE BRITISH, ZIMBABWEAN WHITES
AND THE WEST HAVE MASTERMINDED ALL THE RECENT REVERSES
HE HAS SUFFERED BECAUSE HE IS A PRINCIPLED MAN WHO
STANDS FOR SOMETHING. MUGABE REMAINS DETACHED AND ALOOF
FROM THE PROBLEMS OF THE COUNTRY, MOST RECENTLY JETTING

CONFIDENTIAL

CONFIDENTIAL PTO6835

PAGE 01 HARARE 01842 04 OF 04 061032Z
ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 AMAD-01 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 INL-01
DINT-00 DODE-00 DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 ED-01
EUR-01 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-01 HHS-01 H-01 SSA-01
TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 L-00 AC-01 DCP-01 NSAE-00
OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00
P-00 SP-00 IRM-00 SSO-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00
R-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-01 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00
SAS-00 /017W
-------------- 4870E0 061032Z /38
O 061037Z APR 00
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5673
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY
DIA WASHINGTON DC//NMJIC-J2// PRIORITY
DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
USCINCEUR INTEL VAIHINGEN GE//ECJ2/DIA REP// PRIORITY
USCINCEUR VAIHINGEN GE//ECJ23-CH/POLAD// PRIORITY
JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK//DOOC// PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 04 OF 04 HARARE 001842

SIPDIS

LONDON FOR PFLAUMER

PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS

PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 01842 04 OF 04 061032Z

PASS USAID FOR A/AID R. MCCALL AND AFR/SA - BILL JEFFERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/05/2010
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINS PINR SOCI MARR ZI
SUBJECT: MUGABE CONFERRED STATUS OF A CARICATURE OF AN
AFRICAN LEADER

OFF TO EGYPT TO ATTEND THE EU-AFRICA SUMMIT, INSTEAD OF
SUPERVISING PARTY MEETINGS OR ORGANIZING CAMPAIGN
EFFORTS. INSTEAD, HE APPEARS TO BELIEVE THAT
INTIMIDATION AND FIGHTING WILL SOLVE HIS PROBLEMS. HE
HAS GIVEN THE WAR VETERANS VERY LOOSE REINS TO EXECUTE
HIS GRAB BAG OF DIRTY TRICKS, AND GIVEN THEM MORE COVER
AND PROTECTION THAN WE EVER EXPECTED. AT THE SAME TIME,
WE THINK HE UNDERESTIMATES JUST HOW DIFFICULT IT WILL BE
TO MANAGE THE SITUATION HE HAS CREATED AND RESTORE LAW
AND ORDER IN ZIMBABWE.

--------------
RECOMMENDATIONS
--------------


12. (C) UNDER THESE CIRCUMSTANCES, OUR ABILITY TO
INFLUENCE EVENTS IS VERY LIMITED. NEVERTHELESS, WE
BELIEVE MUGABE IS LIKELY TO LISTEN, AND PERHAPS HEED,
PRIVATE MESSAGES OF RESTRAINT FROM SENIOR USG OFFICIALS
IN THE RUN-UP TO AND AFTER THE ELECTION, PARTICULARLY IF
THESE MEETINGS ARE CAST AS "CONSULTATIONS" WITH THE
ZIMBABWEAN HEAD OF STATE. WE HAVE BEEN URGED TO REMAIN
ENGAGED WITH MUGABE AND HIS GOVERNMENT BY PEOPLE BOTH
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 03 HARARE 01842 04 OF 04 061032Z
INSIDE AND OUTSIDE THE RULING PARTY, WHO SENSE THAT THE
GOVERNMENT WILL ONLY BECOME MORE REPRESSIVE IF IT
PERCEIVES ITSELF AS UNDER ATTACK FROM THE WEST. A
SECONDARY MESSAGE OUR SENIOR OFFICIAL MIGHT DELIVER IS
THAT ZIMBABWE HAS INTERNATIONAL OBLIGATIONS IN THE DROC,
WHICH IT RECONFIRMED IN NEW YORK IN JANUARY, AND IN THE
SOUTHERN AFRICAN SUB-CONTINENT, WHICH ITS VOLATILE
DOMESTIC POLITICS ARE HINDERING. WE SHOULD URGE
ZIMBABWE AT EVERY LEVEL TO GET ITS HOUSE IN ORDER
THROUGH PEACEFUL, DEMOCRATIC ELECTIONS, AND GET BACK ON
TRACK WITH THE PEACE PROCESS. AN EARLY VISIT TO
ZIMBABWE BY A SENIOR AMERICAN OFFICIAL WOULD BE HELPFUL.


13. (C) IN ADDITION TO THE BILATERAL RELATIONSHIP,
THERE ARE OTHER AVENUES OF COMMUNICATION AND INFLUENCE
THAT WE COULD DRAW UPON. FROM MULTIPLE POINTS, THE USG
COULD PRESS THE SOUTH AFRICANS, BOTH IN GOVERNMENT AND
THE PRIVATE SECTOR, TO DIALOGUE WITH THEIR ZIMBABWEAN
COUNTERPARTS. THE SOUTH AFRICANS EXECUTED A MODEL FOR
PEACEFUL TRANSITION IN AFRICA AND HAVE A LOT TO
CONTRIBUTE TO RETURNING DOMESTIC ORDER AND A WAY FORWARD
TO ZIMBABWE. AT THE SAME TIME WE COULD MORE PRO-
ACTIVELY ENGAGE MULTINATIONAL BUSINESSES ESTABLISHED IN
ZIMBABWE TO RAISE THEIR CONCERNS WITH THE ZIMBABWEAN
GOVERNMENT AND THE OPPOSITION. THOUGH TO DATE THE
PRIVATE SECTOR'S DEGREE OF INFLUENCE WITH THE GOVERNMENT
HAS BEEN SECONDARY, THE JOBS, TAXES AND UNDERPINNING
THEY PROVIDE ARGUE FOR A MORE VISIBLE SEAT AT THE TABLE.

IRVING

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 04 HARARE 01842 04 OF 04 061032Z

CONFIDENTIAL

>