Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
00HANOI686
2000-04-05 07:48:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Hanoi
Cable title:  

VIETNAM IDEOLOGICALLY COMMITTED TO STATE-LED ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, WARY OF DANGERS OF GLOBALIZATION

Tags:  PGOV PREL ECON ETRD PINR PHUM VM DPOL 
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2000HANOI00686 - CONFIDENTIAL
 
 
 
 CONFIDENTIAL PTQ0683

PAGE 01 HANOI 00686 01 OF 07 050821Z 
ACTION EAP-00 

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CEA-01 CIAE-00 CTME-00 
 DINT-00 DOEE-00 DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EXIM-01 
 E-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-01 FRB-00 H-01 TEDE-00 
 INR-00 IO-00 ITC-01 LAB-01 L-00 MOFM-04 MOF-03 
 AC-01 NSAE-00 OES-01 OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 
 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 SSO-00 STR-00 
 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-01 DRL-02 G-00 FDIC-01 
 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /023W
 ------------------47E1B3 050822Z /38 
FM AMEMBASSY HANOI
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9479
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
ASEAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY BEIJING PRIORITY 
AMCONSUL HONG KONG PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY TOKYO PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY SEOUL PRIORITY 
DEPTTREAS WASHDC PRIORITY
USDOC WASHDC PRIORITY
SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
JOINT STAFF WASHDC PRIORITY
USCINCPAC HONOLULU HI//J5/FPA// PRIORITY
DIA WASHDC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 07 HANOI 000686 

SIPDIS

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HANOI 00686 01 OF 07 050821Z
STATE ALSO FOR EAP DAS BOYCE AND EAP/BCLTV
STATE ALSO FOR P, E, EB, DRL, OES, INR/EAP, INR/IL/B
NSC FOR RAVIC HUSO
STATE PASS USTR AMB FISHER/DAUSTR DAMOND
WHITE HOUSE FOR DEP/ASST TO POTUS LBRAINARD
SECDEF FOR ISA/EAP/LSTERN
USDOC FOR 4431/MAC/AP/OKSA/HPPHO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 3/21/2020
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON ETRD PINR PHUM VM DPOL
SUBJECT: VIETNAM IDEOLOGICALLY COMMITTED TO STATE-LED ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, WARY OF DANGERS OF GLOBALIZATION

REF: A) HANOI 637 B) HANOI 232

(U) CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL COUNSELOR JAMES BRUNO;
REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D).

-------
SUMMARY
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 07 HANOI 000686

SIPDIS

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HANOI 00686 01 OF 07 050821Z
STATE ALSO FOR EAP DAS BOYCE AND EAP/BCLTV
STATE ALSO FOR P, E, EB, DRL, OES, INR/EAP, INR/IL/B
NSC FOR RAVIC HUSO
STATE PASS USTR AMB FISHER/DAUSTR DAMOND
WHITE HOUSE FOR DEP/ASST TO POTUS LBRAINARD
SECDEF FOR ISA/EAP/LSTERN
USDOC FOR 4431/MAC/AP/OKSA/HPPHO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 3/21/2020
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON ETRD PINR PHUM VM DPOL
SUBJECT: VIETNAM IDEOLOGICALLY COMMITTED TO STATE-LED ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, WARY OF DANGERS OF GLOBALIZATION

REF: A) HANOI 637 B) HANOI 232

(U) CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL COUNSELOR JAMES BRUNO;
REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D).

--------------
SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) SENIOR LEADERS RECENTLY HAVE EMPHASIZED FAMILIAR
IDEOLOGICAL THEMES ABOUT THE COMMUNIST PARTY'S PREEMINENT
ROLE IN ALL MAJOR POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC DECISION-MAKING.
A FOCUS OF THIS CENTER-LED GOVERNING STYLE IS THE NEED FOR A
STRONG STATE SECTOR TO GUIDE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT. IN THE
VIEW OF VIETNAM'S IDEOLOGUES, MARKET REFORMS MUST BE
INCREMENTAL AND SUPPLEMENTAL TO THE STATE-LED BACKBONE OF
THE ECONOMY. RECENT ARTICLES HAVE STRESSED THAT SOCIALIST
VIETNAM'S HIGHEST PRIORITIES MUST ALWAYS BE TO REDUCE
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PAGE 03 HANOI 00686 01 OF 07 050821Z
POVERTY AND HUNGER. WHILE THESE ARE LAUDABLE GOALS,
VIETNAM'S COMMAND-STYLE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL SERVICE SYSTEM
IS SEEN, IN LARGE PART, AS THE MECHANISM TO ACHIEVE THIS,
RATHER THAN ALLOWING GREATER ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL FREEDOM
FOLLOWING A MARKET-ORIENTED PARADIGM. IN THE WORDS OF THE
PRIME MINISTER, VIETNAM IS A POOR COUNTRY THAT "CANNOT
COMPETE" WITH RICH COUNTRIES. VIETNAM CONSTANTLY ARGUES IT
NEEDS MORE AID, DESPITE HAVING AID COMMITMENTS AND PLEDGES
TOTALING 28 PERCENT OF GDP.


2. (C) THOUGH THE PROCESS OF GLOBALIZATION IS ACKNOWLEDGED
TO BE INEVITABLE, SENIOR SRV OFFICIALS SEE IT AS LARGELY
NEGATIVE. THIS IS HIGHLY IRONIC, BECAUSE CERTAIN SECTIONS
OF THE COUNTRY, ESPECIALLY HO CHI MINH CITY, ARE PROFOUNDLY
BENEFITING FROM GROWING TRADE WITH THE REST OF THE WORLD.
IN FACT, MOST VIETNAMESE SEE THE LEADERSHIP'S MARXIST

SLOGANS AS IRRELEVANT TO THEIR DAILY LIVES. BUT MANY
LEADERS IN HANOI ARE PROFOUNDLY FEARFUL OF HOW THE WEST, AND
PARTICULARLY THE U.S., MAY TAKE ADVANTAGE OF VIETNAM'S
"WEAKNESSES." THEY SEE UNBRIDLED ECONOMIC REFORM AND
LIBERALIZATION AS DESTABILIZING AND REFER TO SCIENCE AND
TECHNOLOGY AS TOOLS THAT INTERNATIONAL "IMPERIALISM" USES TO
SUBJUGATE POOR COUNTRIES. THEY ALSO FEAR WESTERN EFFORTS TO
IMPOSE "MILITARY SOLUTIONS" IN OTHER COUNTRIES, SUCH AS IN
KOSOVO OR EAST TIMOR. THOUGH THE COUNTRY'S CONSERVATIVE
IDEOLOGUES CHAMPION THESE VIEWS MOST VIGOROUSLY, IN RECENT
MONTHS EVEN MORE TECHNOCRATIC MEMBERS SUCH AS THE PRIME
MINISTER AND FOREIGN MINISTER HAVE ECHOED THEM. WE SENSE
VIETNAMESE LEADERS ARE EMBOLDENED BY THE STRONG CRITICISM OF
FREE TRADE AT THE SEATTLE WTO AND THE BANGKOK UNCTAD
MEETINGS. THIS HEIGHTENED IDEOLOGICAL RHETORIC SUGGESTS
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PAGE 04 HANOI 00686 01 OF 07 050821Z
MAJOR ECONOMIC REFORMS ARE UNLIKELY BEFORE NEXT SPRING'S
PARTY CONGRESS. END SUMMARY.

--------------
THE ROLE OF IDEOLOGY IN VIETNAM
--------------


3. (C) THIS IS THE SECOND OF A TWO-PART SERIES ANALYZING THE
IDEOLOGICAL THEMES HIGHLIGHTED IN RECENT SPEECHES AND
PRONOUNCEMENTS BY COMMUNIST PARTY (CPV) LEADERS. THESE
CABLES ANALYZE THEMES RAISED BY PARTY GENERAL SECRETARY LE
KHA PHIEU IN HIS SPEECH ON THE 70TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE
FOUNDING OF THE CPV; BY POLITBURO MEMBERS PHAM THE DUYET AND
NGUYEN PHU TRONG AND PARTY IDEOLOGISTS NHI LE AND NGUYEN
KHANH IN ARTICLES IN THE OFFICIAL COMMUNIST PARTY
THEORETICAL JOURNAL; AND BY PRIME MINISTER PHAN VAN KHAI AND
FOREIGN MINISTER NGUYEN DY NIEN IN MEETINGS WITH FOREIGN
LEADERS. THIS CABLE FOCUSES ON THE CPV'S CONTINUING
ADHERENCE TO CENTRALLY DIRECTED ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND TO
THE POLITICAL, ECONOMIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL DANGERS VIETNAM'S
LEADERS SEE IN GLOBALIZATION. REF A FOCUSED ON THE
COMMUNIST PARTY'S ROLE IN GUIDING THE VIETNAMESE STATE.


4. (C) WHILE THESE IDEOLOGICAL PRINCIPLES HAVE BEEN GETTING
INCREASED ATTENTION IN RECENT SPEECHES AND STATEMENTS, IT IS
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT AMONG THE POPULATION AT LARGE,
MARXIST-LENINIST IDEOLOGY HAS FEW FOLLOWERS IN VIETNAM. THE
AVERAGE PERSON ON THE STREET FINDS MUCH OF THIS TO BE
"BACKGROUND NOISE" THAT IS IRRELEVANT TO HIS OR HER DAILY
LIFE. IN HO CHI MINH CITY, IN PARTICULAR, MANY PEOPLE ARE
QUICK TO VOICE THEIR DISDAIN FOR THE EMPTY SHIBBOLETHS THAT
ARE SPOUTED BY PARTY IDEOLOGUES. THE PROCESSES OF "DE
FACTO" GLOBALIZATION AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE ARE MOST
ADVANCED IN THE SOUTH, AND PARTY AND GOVERNMENT LEADERS FROM
THAT REGION ARE, AS A GROUP, MUCH MORE OPEN TO ENGAGEMENT
WITH THE REST OF THE WORLD AND ATTUNED TO THE BENEFITS OF
GLOBALIZATION. HOWEVER, IT WOULD BE A MISTAKE TO DISMISS
THE IDEOLOGICAL MANTRAS OF THE PARTY AND GOVERNMENT AS ONLY
EMPTY SLOGANS. MARXIST-LENINIST IDEOLOGY REMAINS IMPORTANT
IN VIETNAM BECAUSE MANY OF THE SENIOR LEADERS EITHER
CONTINUE TO BE TRUE BELIEVERS -- OR THEY HIDE BEHIND THE
RHETORIC AS AN EXCUSE FOR NOT PRESSING FORWARD BRISKLY ON
REFORM. IDEOLOGY IN VIETNAM IS MOST IMPORTANT FOR WHAT IT
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 03 HANOI 00686 02 OF 07 050822Z
SAYS ABOUT THE NARROW CUPOLA OF LEADERS WHO HOLD THE REINS
OF ULTIMATE POLITICAL POWER.

-------------- --------------
IDEOLOGISTS STRESS STATE-LED DEVELOPMENT AS NECESSARY
FOR SOCIAL STABILITY; MARKET REFORMS GRADUAL AND MEASURED
-------------- --------------


5. (C) FROM THEIR OWN PERSPECTIVE, THE COMMUNIST PARTY
LEADERS OF VIETNAM FACE A PROFOUND ECONOMIC DILEMMA: HOW TO
OPEN UP THE ECONOMY AND BENEFIT FROM INCREASED TRADE AND
INVESTMENT WITHOUT RISKING LOSS OF SOCIAL STABILITY AND THE
POTENTIAL LOSS OF THEIR MONOPOLY ON POWER. WE HAVE HEARD
FROM MANY GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS THAT THE DEBATE IN VIETNAM IS
NOT ABOUT WHETHER OR NOT TO MOVE FORWARD -- BUT AT WHAT PACE
TO DO SO. MANY OF VIETNAM'S SENIOR LEADERS HAVE AN INHERENT
CAUTION ABOUT PROCEEDING "TOO RAPIDLY" WITH ECONOMIC
LIBERALIZATION AND MARKET REFORMS. IN THE ABSENCE OF A
CONSENSUS TO MOVE FORWARD BOLDLY ON REFORM, THE PARTY
PRESERVES ITS PATERNALISTIC, STATE-LED ECONOMIC MODEL THAT
GRADUALLY INTRODUCES GREATER "MARKET CHARACTERISTICS" IN A
CONTROLLED, MEASURED WAY.


6. (C) IN HIS SPEECH COMMEMORATING THE 70TH ANNIVERSARY OF
THE CPV IN FEBRUARY, GENERAL SECRETARY PHIEU EXTOLLED
SOCIALISM AS THE MEANS FOR DEVELOPMENT IN VIETNAM. HE SAID
VIETNAM MUST BUILD "A HIGHLY DEVELOPED ECONOMY WITH MODERN
PRODUCTION FORCES AND WITH STATE OWNERSHIP OF ALL KEY
PRODUCTION AREAS." VIETNAM WILL DEVELOP ALL "ECONOMIC
SECTORS, INCLUDING STATE ENTERPRISES, COOPERATIVES, FAMILY
BUSINESSES, FARMS, PRIVATE COMPANIES, AND JOINT VENTURES
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PAGE 04 HANOI 00686 02 OF 07 050822Z
WITH FOREIGN PARTNERS." HE CONTINUED THAT THE STATE ECONOMY
AND THE COOPERATIVE-BASED ECONOMY WILL FORM "A FOUNDATION
FOR OUR NATIONAL ECONOMY." FURTHER PARROTING THE 1992
CONSTITUTION, HE ADDED THAT ALL ECONOMIC SECTORS WILL BE
EQUAL. PHIEU SAID, "IT IS TOTALLY CORRECT WHEN OUR PARTY
EMPHASIZES AND CONSOLIDATES THE LEADING ROLE OF THE STATE
ECONOMY." HE SAID THE STATE SECTOR SHOULD "SERVE AS A
CENTER TO ACCELERATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF OTHER ECONOMIC
SECTORS, MAINTAIN STABILITY DURING COMPLICATED
CIRCUMSTANCES, AND IMPLEMENT THE MARKET-ORIENTED ECONOMY
UNDER STATE MANAGEMENT WITH A SOCIALIST ORIENTATION."


7. (C) PHIEU FURTHER NOTES THAT ELIMINATING HUNGER AND
REDUCING POVERTY ARE KEY ECONOMIC PRIORITIES. BY LAUDING
THE SUCCESSES OF VIETNAM'S ANTI-POVERTY EFFORTS THUS FAR,
PHIEU SEEMS TO BE ARGUING FOR CONTINUING A FUNDAMENTALLY
CENTRALLY PLANNED MODEL OF POVERTY REDUCTION, RATHER THAN
SEEKING TO PROMOTE PROSPERITY THROUGH GREATER ECONOMIC AND
POLITICAL FREEDOM. (COMMENT: ADMITTEDLY THIS MAY IMPACT
DIFFERENT REGIONS AND SECTORS DIFFERENTLY. END COMMENT.)
PHIEU GOES ON TO URGE THAT VIETNAM EXPAND ITS "ECONOMIC
COOPERATION" WITH OTHER COUNTRIES AND PRODUCE NEW PRODUCTS
OF HIGH QUALITY SO THAT VIETNAM CAN COMPETE WITH OTHER
COUNTRIES. HOWEVER, THE PRIMACY OF THE STATE SECTOR IS
CLEAR IN HIS ECONOMIC WORLDVIEW.



8. (C) SIMILARLY, IN A MARCH ARTICLE OUTLINING VIETNAM'S
HUMAN RIGHTS POLICY IN THE PARTY NEWSPAPER "THE PEOPLE"
("NHAN DAN"),PARTY FUNCTIONARY PHAM VAN KHANH STRESSED THE
IMPORTANCE OF STATE EFFORTS TO REDUCE POVERTY. "THE MOST
FUNDAMENTAL HUMAN RIGHTS ISSUE IN VIETNAM IS TO MAKE IT
POSSIBLE FOR THE PEOPLE TO HAVE ADEQUATE FOOD, CLOTHES AND
ACCESS TO EDUCATION." KHANH WROTE THAT "PAYING ATTENTION TO
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT TO RAISE THE ENTIRE PEOPLE'S LIVING
STANDARDS, IMPLEMENTING POLICIES ON HUNGER ELIMINATION, AND
POVERTY REDUCTION ARE REALLY THE PRIMARY CONCERN OF THE
PARTY AND STATE OF VIETNAM." KHANH SAYS THE SRV IS
PERFECTING ITS SOCIAL SERVICES SYSTEM AND DEVELOPING A
SOCIAL WELFARE NETWORK TO GUARANTEE THESE RIGHTS.


9. (C) COMMENT: VIETNAM HAS RECEIVED GENEROUS SUPPORT AND
STRONG ENCOURAGEMENT FROM THE IFI'S AND BILATERAL DONORS FOR
THE SUCCESSES OF ITS LARGELY STATE-LED APPROACH TO POVERTY
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PAGE 03 HANOI 00686 03 OF 07 050822Z
REDUCTION. DURING THE VISIT OF WORLD BANK PRESIDENT
WOLFENSOHN IN MARCH -- AND THROUGHOUT VIETNAM'S ONGOING
ENGAGEMENT WITH LOCAL WORLD BANK, ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK,
AND UN AGENCY OFFICIALS -- VIETNAM GETS CONSISTENTLY HIGH
MARKS FOR ITS SUCCESSES IN REDUCING THE POVERTY RATE. GIVEN
THIS ONGOING CHORUS OF PRAISE FROM MANY INTERNATIONAL
DONORS, WHICH IS SUPPORTED TANGIBLY WITH PLEDGES OF MORE
THAN $2 BILLION ANNUALLY IN MULTILATERAL AND BILATERAL
ASSISTANCE, NO WONDER THE GVN FEELS JUSTIFIED IN "STAYING
THE COURSE" WITH A HEAVILY STATE-LED MACROECONOMIC APPROACH
THAT EMPHASIZES POVERTY REDUCTION AND WHICH IS BASED IN
LARGE PART ON ABUNDANT AID FLOWS. END COMMENT.

--------------
PLAYING POKER WITH A BAD HAND:
WE NEED AID AND SPECIAL TREATMENT
--------------


10. (C) VIETNAMESE LEADERS ROUTINELY EMPHASIZE THAT VIETNAM
IS A POOR, UNDERDEVELOPED COUNTRY THAT IS APPROACHING GLOBAL
TRADE FROM A POSITION OF WEAKNESS. PHIEU WAS CANDID IN
ADMITTING THAT VIETNAM MUST BE "VIGILANT" IN PROCEEDING WITH
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT. HE SAID THE SRV FACES "NUMEROUS
OPPONENTS FROM MORE DEVELOPED ECONOMIES, STRONGER POWERS AND
BETTER POSITIONS." OVERALL, THE TONE IS THAT VIETNAM MUST
BE CAUTIOUS AND CAREFUL, LEST IT BE TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF IN
RELATIONS WITH STRONGER POWERS.


11. (C) WHILE DISCUSSING THE U.S.-VIETNAM BILATERAL TRADE
AGREEMENT (BTA) WITH VISITING SECDEF COHEN, PRIME MINISTER
KHAI WAS VERY POINTED IN SAYING THAT VIETNAM CANNOT COMPETE
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PAGE 04 HANOI 00686 03 OF 07 050822Z
WITH OTHER COUNTRIES SUCH AS THE U.S. HE SAID THAT, WITHIN
THE BILATERAL TRADE AGREEMENT NEGOTIATIONS, THERE MUST BE
PROVISIONS THAT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT "THE REALITY THAT VIETNAM
IS AN UNDERDEVELOPED COUNTRY." KHAI FURTHER MADE A PITCH
FOR INCREASED ASSISTANCE TO VIETNAM, SAYING THE U.S. "CANNOT
UNDERSTAND THE FULL DIFFICULTIES WE ARE FACING." KHAI MADE
AN APPEAL BASED ON VIETNAM'S LOSSES OF "MORE THAN 3 MILLION
PERSONS," BOTH MILITARY AND CIVILIAN, DURING WARTIME. HE
SAID THE GVN CONTINUES TO PROVIDE ASSISTANCE TO 1.2 MILLION
FAMILIES WHO LOST RELATIVES DURING THE WAR, AS WELL AS TO
THOSE WHO ALLEGEDLY WERE HARMED BY "CHEMICALS" DURING THE
WAR.


12. (C) POLITBURO MEMBER NGUYEN PHU TRONG, CURRENTLY HEAD OF
THE HANOI PARTY COMMITTEE, RAISED THE THEME OF VIETNAM'S
WEAKNESS IN A RECENT ARTICLE IN "COMMUNIST REVIEW." TRONG
OBSERVED, "THE NATIONAL AND CLASS STRUGGLES ARE PROCEEDING
IN A VERY INTENSE AND FIERCE MANNER. THE SCIENTIFIC AND
TECHNOLOGICAL REVOLUTION IS DEVELOPING TEMPESTUOUSLY.
MEANWHILE, OUR CAPACITY FOR COMPREHENSION AND INTELLECTUAL
LEVEL ARE LIMITED." TRONG FEARS THAT "HOSTILE FORCES ARE
TRYING TO ATTACK AND UNDERMINE OUR PEOPLE'S REVOLUTIONARY
CAUSE BY ALL MEANS. THEY HAVE MADE EVERY EFFORT TO
MISREPRESENT AND SLANDER OUR PARTY AND STATE AND DIRECTLY
STRIKE AT THE IDEOLOGICAL SYSTEM, POLITICAL PROGRAM AND
POLITICAL LINE OF OUR PARTY IN AN ATTEMPT TO CAUSE OUR PARTY
TO DISINTEGRATE FROM ITS ROOTS AND FROM WITHIN."

--------------
THE DANGERS OF GLOBALIZATION
--------------


13. (C) REINFORCING THE NEED FOR A STRONG STATE SECTOR AND
THE RISKS OF ECONOMIC REFORM, IN THE EYES OF SRV LEADERS,
ARE THEIR FEARS ABOUT THE HARMFUL EFFECTS OF GLOBALIZATION.
ON REPEATED OCCASIONS VIETNAMESE LEADERS HAVE VOICED THEIR
CONCERNS ABOUT THE INSTABILITY BROUGHT TO THE REGION BY THE
EAST ASIAN FINANCIAL CRISIS. PARTICULARLY ATTENTION-GETTING
IN HANOI WAS THE IMPACT OF THE REGIONAL CRISIS ON THE
POLITICAL STABILITY OF THE FORMERLY DE FACTO ONE-PARTY STATE
OF INDONESIA. ALSO OF CONCERN WAS THE IMPACT OF THE CRISIS
IN SETTING BACK POVERTY REDUCTION EFFORTS IN THAT COUNTRY
AND OTHERS.
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PAGE 03 HANOI 00686 04 OF 07 050823Z


14. (C) IN RECENT SPEECHES AND STATEMENTS, SENIOR LEADERS
HAVE SPOKEN OF GLOBALIZATION IN HIGHLY AMBIVALENT WAYS.
THOUGH SEEN AS AN "INEVITABLE" PROCESS, GLOBALIZATION IS
VIEWED AS A LARGELY NEGATIVE PHENOMENON THAT MUST BE MANAGED
CAREFULLY. (COMMENT: THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO HOW MANY IN THE
WEST SEE VIETNAM, BELIEVING THAT GLOBALIZATION PROVIDES
ENORMOUS OPPORTUNITIES FOR A POOR COUNTRY WITH GREAT HUMAN
RESOURCES, LIKE VIETNAM, TO MAKE QUICK PROGRESS
DEVELOPMENTALLY. END COMMENT.)


15. (C) AT THE MEETING OF THE UNITED NATIONS CONFERENCE ON
TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT (UNCTAD) IN BANGKOK FEBRUARY 13, PM
KHAI NOTED THAT THE TRENDS OF GLOBALIZATION AND
REGIONALIZATION OFFER BOTH OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES FOR
UNDERDEVELOPED COUNTRIES LIKE VIETNAM. KHAI SAID NO
NATIONAL ECONOMY "CAN EXIST INDEPENDENTLY AMIDST THE GROWING
INTERDEPENDENCE OF NATIONAL ECONOMIES." IN ORDER FOR POOR
COUNTRIES TO BE ABLE TO PARTICIPATE IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY,
THEY NEED SPECIAL TREATMENT. HE OPINED THAT GLOBALIZATION
REQUIRES THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY "TO PAY SPECIAL
ATTENTION TO MAPPING OUT SOLUTIONS THAT BENEFIT POOR AND
BACKWARD COUNTRIES." HE SAID DEVELOPING COUNTRIES ARE "IN
GREAT NEED OF ACTIVE ASSISTANCE FROM DEVELOPED COUNTRIES TO
COMPREHENSIVELY AND EQUALLY ENGAGE IN INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC
RELATIONS." HE SAID WTO DEVELOPED MEMBERS "SHOULD GIVE
PRIORITY ... TO (CREATING) FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THOSE
COUNTRIES THAT ARE NEGOTIATING FOR WTO MEMBERSHIP." THE
AGENDA OF THE WTO SHOULD CREATE "A MORE FAVORABLE
INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION ENVIRONMENT" AND ALLOW THEM TO
"ENJOY SPECIAL PRIORITY (TREATMENT) WITHOUT ANY KIND OF
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PAGE 04 HANOI 00686 04 OF 07 050823Z
DISCRIMINATION."


16. (C) IN HIS 70TH ANNIVERSARY SPEECH, GENERAL SECRETARY
PHIEU OUTLINED A PROFOUNDLY NEGATIVE VIEW OF GLOBALIZATION.
AFTER TRACING THE HISTORICAL ROLE OF IMPERIALISM IN
SUBJUGATING PEOPLES IN THE DEVELOPING WORLD, PHIEU GOES ON
TO STATE THAT IMPERIALISM STILL EXISTS, BUT IT HAS ADOPTED
DIFFERENT FORMS. "IMPERIALIST FORCES HAVE EXPANDED THE
WORLD MARKET EVERYWHERE FOR MAXIMUM PROFIT. AT THE SAME
TIME, COUNTRIES WHICH HAVE REGAINED INDEPENDENCE RECENTLY
AFTER A LONG PERIOD OF SLAVERY ARE POOR, BACKWARD, AND
LOOKING FOR WAYS TO DEVELOP." HE SAID THEY NEED CAPITAL,
SCIENCE, HIGH TECHNOLOGY, MANAGEMENT EXPERIENCE,
INTELLECTUALS, AND SKILLED WORKERS. BUT, HE ADDS, "THESE
THINGS ARE IMPOSSIBLE FOR THEM TO OBTAIN UNDER THE
DOMINATION OF IMPERIALISM." PHIEU SAYS THAT DEVELOPING
COUNTRIES MUST DEVISE NEW STRATEGIES "TO DEAL WITH NEW AND
UNFAIR TRICKS PLAYED ON THEM BY THEIR OPPONENTS." (COMMENT:
EVEN IF THIS IS LARGELY IDEOLOGICAL BOILERPLATE FOR THE
PARTY FAITHFUL, IT IS REVEALING FOR ITS EXCESSIVE CONCERN,
EVEN PARANOIA, ABOUT THE HARMFUL EFFECTS OF ENGAGING THE
WORLD. PHIEU'S VIEW IS THAT GLOBALIZATION IS A ZERO-SUM
GAME, AND VIETNAM IS LIKELY TO GET THE SHORT END OF THE
STICK. IN SEVERAL PLACES, HE VIRTUALLY EQUATES
GLOBALIZATION AND IMPERIALISM. END COMMENT.)




17. (C) TAKING THEIR CUES FROM PARTY LEADERS, GOVERNMENT
OFFICIALS LIKEWISE ARE SOUNDING THESE NOTES, IF NOT AS
HARSHLY AS PHIEU. FOREIGN MINISTER NIEN, ON HIS FIRST
OFFICIAL TRIP TO JAPAN MARCH 10 AFTER ASSUMING HIS POST THE
MONTH BEFORE, URGED JAPANESE FOREIGN MINISTER KONO TO
HIGHLIGHT THE DETRIMENTAL ASPECTS OF ECONOMIC GLOBALIZATION
WHEN JAPAN HOSTS THE GROUP OF EIGHT MEETING IN JULY,
ACCORDING TO A JAPANESE MFA OFFICIAL QUOTED BY THE KYODO
NEWS SERVICE. IN THE SAME WAY, DEPUTY NATIONAL ASSEMBLY
CHAIRMAN VU DINH CU SPOKE OUT MARCH 6 IN THE COMMUNIST PARTY
MOUTHPIECE "NHAN DAN" ("THE PEOPLE") ABOUT THE IMPACT
GLOBALIZATION WOULD HAVE ON VIETNAM. CU SAID "RAPID OPENING
OF THE GLOBAL MARKET" WOULD LEAD TO MASSIVE BANKRUPTCY OF
VIETNAMESE COMPANIES THAT ARE WEAK IN FINANCIAL,
TECHNOLOGICAL AND MANAGEMENT CAPABILITIES. THIS WOULD
RESULT IN GREATLY INCREASED UNEMPLOYMENT, HE SAID.

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 03 HANOI 00686 05 OF 07 050823Z
--------------
GLOBALIZATION CREATES MORE POOR PEOPLE
--------------


18. (C) PRIME MINISTER KHAI TOOK THIS THEME ONE STEP FURTHER
WHEN HE TOLD VISITING SECDEF COHEN MARCH 13 THAT
GLOBALIZATION WILL INCREASE THE NUMBER OF POOR PEOPLE. KHAI
SAID GLOBALIZATION AND INTEGRATION ARE "STILL CONTROVERSIAL
ISSUES" IN VIETNAM. SPEAKING OF HIS ATTENDANCE AT THE
UNCTAD CONFERENCE IN BANGKOK, KHAI SAID THERE WAS A LOT OF
CONTROVERSY BETWEEN RICH AND POOR COUNTRIES, PARTICULARLY
OVER HOW TO BRIDGE THE GAP OF WEALTH BETWEEN THEM. HE ADDED
THAT VIETNAM RECOGNIZES GLOBALIZATION IS "THE INTERNATIONAL
TENDENCY, WHICH WE CANNOT AVOID." BUT HE SAID EACH COUNTRY
NEEDS TO CHOOSE ITS OWN APPROACH TO DEVELOP ITSELF AND RAISE
LIVING STANDARDS.


19. (C) COMMENT: IT IS STRIKING HOW NEGATIVELY EVEN
VIETNAM'S MORE TECHNOCRATIC/REFORMIST LEADERS, SUCH AS KHAI,
SEE THE PROCESS OF GLOBALIZATION. THEIR WARINESS REINFORCES
THEIR CAUTION, AND CAUSES THE LEADERSHIP AS A GROUP TO FAVOR
SHORT-TERM STABILITY RATHER THAN OPEN UP THE ECONOMY IN WAYS
THAT WOULD PAY LONG-TERM REWARDS. HOWEVER, THE CHALLENGES
ARE DAUNTING: MORE THAN ONE MILLION NEW JOBS NEED TO BE
CREATED EVERY YEAR IN THIS EXTRAORDINARILY YOUNG COUNTRY IN
ORDER TO KEEP UP WITH POPULATION GROWTH. END COMMENT.


20. (C) PREDICTABLY, IN HIS 70TH ANNIVERSARY SPEECH, PHIEU
TOUCHED ON THIS THEME AS WELL. HE STATED, "WHEN IMPERIALISM
ACCELERATES THE LIBERALIZATION OF WORLD TRADE, SERVICE AND
INVESTMENT, RICH COUNTRIES WILL BECOME RICHER, AND THE
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PAGE 04 HANOI 00686 05 OF 07 050823Z
POVERTY GAP BETWEEN RICH COUNTRIES AND POOR COUNTRIES WILL
BECOME WIDER."

--------------
A SCREED AGAINST TECHNOLOGY
--------------


21. (C) THE MORE IDEOLOGICAL MEMBERS OF THE POLITBURO, SUCH
AS PHIEU AND TRONG, ALSO HAVE RAILED AGAINST DELETERIOUS
ASPECTS OF SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCES. PHIEU'S
70TH ANNIVERSARY SPEECH WAS THE MOST JARRING, THOUGH THERE
HAVE BEEN ECHOES ELSEWHERE AS WELL (SUCH AS BY TRONG, CITED
PARA 11 ABOVE). COMING DEEP OUT OF LEFT FIELD, PHIEU
CLAIMED THAT "CAPITALISM AND IMPERIALISM WERE BROUGHT TO
LIFE BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY." HE GOES
ON TO NOTE, POSITIVELY, THAT SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL
ACHIEVEMENTS IN THE 21ST CENTURY CAN HELP BRING ABOUT BETTER
AND MORE CIVILIZED LIVING CONDITIONS. BUT HERE AGAIN THE
OVERRIDING TONE IS ONE OF CONCERN: "PEOPLE ARE STILL
WORRIED." HISTORY HAS SHOWN, PHIEU SAID, THAT "A HIGHER
LEVEL OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY WILL BRING ABOUT A HIGHER
AND MORE SEVERE LEVEL OF WAR AND ECONOMIC CRISIS."


22. (C) COMMENT: IN A UNIQUE VARIATION ON THE CLASSIC
THEORY, PHIEU SEEMS TO BELIEVE IN AN "INVISIBLE HAND" THAT
IS SOMEHOW AT WORK IN THE GLOBAL TRADING SYSTEM AND
TECHNOLOGICAL TRANSFER TO ATTEMPT TO SUBVERT THE INTERESTS
OF VIETNAM. END COMMENT.

--------------
THE DANGERS OF A MONO-POLAR WORLD
--------------


23. (C) THESE CONCERNS ABOUT THE HARMFUL ASPECTS OF
GLOBALIZATION ECONOMICALLY AND TECHNOLOGICALLY ARE ALSO
REFLECTED IN VIETNAMESE LEADERS' VIEWS OF INTERNATIONAL
RELATIONS. PHIEU SAID, "AFTER THE COLLAPSE OF THE SOVIET
UNION AND THE SOCIALIST COUNTRIES IN EASTERN EUROPE, THE
IMPERIALIST FORCES HAVE CONTINUOUSLY SOUGHT WAYS TO TOTALLY
ELIMINATE THE REMAINING SOCIALIST COUNTRIES AND HAVE WAGED
WARS AGAINST MOVEMENTS OF INDEPENDENCE, DEMOCRACY AND SOCIAL
PROGRESS." IN PARTICULAR, NATO MILITARY OPERATIONS AGAINST
THE BOSNIAN SERBS IN BOSNIA AND AGAINST SERBIA OVER KOSOVO
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HEIGHTENED VIETNAMESE CONCERNS ABOUT THE DANGERS OF U.S.
MILITARY ACTION. PHIEU SAID, "ALL PEOPLE ARE CLOSELY
FOLLOWING NEW DEVELOPMENTS AFTER THE KOSOVO INCIDENT." HE
SAID, "OTHER DEVELOPED COUNTRIES ARE TRYING TO INCREASE
POWER TO FRUSTRATE THE CONSPIRACY TO ESTABLISH 'A MONO-POLAR
ORDER IN A MULTI-POLAR WORLD.'" (COMMENT: NATO'S BOMBING OF
BELGRADE BECAUSE OF THE CONFLICT IN KOSOVO RESONATED DEEPLY
IN HANOI, WHICH HAS NOT FORGOTTEN U.S. BOMBING OF NORTHERN
VIETNAMESE CITIES THREE DECADES AGO. END COMMENT.)


24. (C) FOREIGN MINISTER NIEN, IN HIS FEBRUARY 17 SPEECH TO
THE DIPLOMATIC CORPS OUTLINING VIETNAM'S FOREIGN POLICY
PRIORITIES, SAID VIETNAM WILL PRESS FORWARD WITH
INTERNATIONAL AND REGIONAL INTEGRATION. HE SAID VIETNAM
WILL ALSO SEEK TO PROMOTE TIES WITH MAJOR POWERS AND
NEIGHBORING STATES, WHILE ALSO SEEKING TO STEP UP RELATIONS
WITH "TRADITIONAL FRIENDS AND THE NON-ALIGNED MOVEMENT."
(WE NOTE THAT IN THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS, VIETNAM HAS
ARRANGED HIGH-LEVEL VISITS OR FOCUSED INCREASED ATTENTION ON
RUSSIA, IRAQ, CUBA AND NORTH KOREA.) NIEN SAID THAT, IN
ORDER TO STRENGTHEN ITS INDEPENDENCE AND SOVEREIGNTY, HANOI
WILL SEEK TO FURTHER DIVERSIFY ITS FOREIGN RELATIONS.


25. (C) PHAM THE DUYET, THE FIFTH-RANKING POLITBURO MEMBER
AND HEAD OF THE FATHERLAND FRONT, RECENTLY OUTLINED A HIGHLY
IDEOLOGICAL VIEW OF THE ROLE OF THE COMMUNIST PARTY IN
VIETNAM'S FOREIGN RELATIONS. IN AN ARTICLE ON "THE
INTERNATIONAL MISSION OF THE PARTY" PUBLISHED IN FEBRUARY IN
THE COMMUNIST REVIEW, HE EMPHASIZED THAT MARXISM-LENINISM
AND HO CHI MINH THOUGHT FORM THE FOUNDATION OF VIETNAM'S
FOREIGN POLICY, ARISING FROM THE COUNTRY'S REVOLUTIONARY
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TRADITION. HE CAUTIONED VIETNAM MUST REMAIN TRUE TO THIS
HERITAGE TO AVOID THE ERRORS OF THE FORMER COMMUNIST STATES
IN THE SOVIET UNION AND EASTERN EUROPE, WHICH COLLAPSED
AFTER THEY TRIED TO "REFORM." HE ALSO HARSHLY CRITICIZED
U.S.-LED NATO EFFORTS IN THE FORMER YUGOSLAVIA. HE SAID,
"AMERICAN IMPERIALISM CARRIES OUT A HARD-LINE HEGEMONISTIC
POLICY OF PRESSURING AND INTERFERING IN THE AFFAIRS OF OTHER
COUNTRIES. THE WAR OF AGGRESSION AGAINST YUGOSLAVIA CARRIED
OUT BY AMERICA AND NATO IS A GRAPHIC RECENT EXAMPLE." DUYET
ADDED A WORD OF CAUTION: "IN THE PROCESS OF INTEGRATION WITH
THE WORLD ECONOMY, WE MUST GRASP FIRMLY (THE PRINCIPLE) OF
SIMULTANEOUS STRUGGLE AND COOPERATION."

-------------- --------------
IDEOLOGY'S SHADOW: HISTORY HAS NOT ENDED IN VIETNAM
-------------- --------------


26. (C) COMMENT: WHEN ONE ANALYZES RECENT SPEECHES AND
STATEMENTS BY VIETNAMESE LEADERS, ONE IS STRUCK BY THE
STRONG UNDERCURRENT OF IDEOLOGICAL RHETORIC. AT ONE LEVEL,
THIS CAN BE ASCRIBED TO VIETNAM'S "PRIMARY SEASON" IN THE
RUN-UP TO THE ELECTIONS FOR NEXT SPRING'S NINTH PARTY
CONGRESS. HOWEVER, THIS RATCHETING UP OF IDEOLOGICAL THEMES
SHOULD NOT BE DISMISSED LIGHTLY. WHILE AT A SURFACE LEVEL
VIETNAM'S LEADERS SAY THEY DO NOT WANT TO FOCUS ON THE
LEGACY OF THE WAR-TIME YEARS, THE HISTORY OF CONFLICT THREE
DECADES AGO CONTINUES TO PROFOUNDLY SHAPE THE WORLDVIEW OF
THE COUNTRY'S SENIOR LEADERS. MANY OF THEM ARE FEARFUL AND
SUSPICIOUS OF WESTERN, AND ESPECIALLY AMERICAN, INTENTIONS.


27. (C) COMMENT (CONT'D): AS WE CONTINUE TO PRESS FORWARD
SEEKING A BILATERAL TRADE AGREEMENT AND OTHER MAJOR REFORMS,
WE NEED TO REMEMBER THAT MANY SENIOR LEADERS ARE DEEPLY
DISTRUSTFUL OF THE U.S. THEIR FUNDAMENTAL CAUTION AND
CONSENSUS-ORIENTED NATURE, COMBINED WITH A GENUINE FEAR OF
BEING HOODWINKED BY THE WEST, COMBINE TO DISCOURAGE MAJOR
PROGRESS ON ECONOMIC REFORM. THOUGH WE HAVE MADE GREAT
STRIDES IN BUILDING CONSTRUCTIVE RELATIONS WITH WORKING-
LEVEL SRV OFFICIALS AND INCREASING THEIR APPRECIATION FOR
THE BENEFITS OF ENGAGING THE GLOBAL COMMUNITY, THE SECRETIVE
AND INSULAR POLITBURO IS ANOTHER STORY. IN THE SEAT OF
ULTIMATE POLITICAL POWER, PARTY VETERANS CONTINUE TO USE
IDEOLOGICAL SLOGANS TO RESIST MOVING FORWARD ON REFORM.
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THEY DO THIS FOR SEVERAL REASONS: TO PROTECT THEIR PERSONAL
PERKS OF POWER, TO GUARD AGAINST THE SOCIAL INSTABILITY THEY
GENUINELY FEAR, AND TO CONFRONT WHAT THEY SEE AS A U.S.
"GLOBAL STRATEGY" OF POWER PROJECTION THAT IMPOSES "AMERICAN
SOLUTIONS" IN PLACES SUCH AS KOSOVO AND EAST TIMOR. IN SUM,
THERE IS AN ENORMOUS GAP BETWEEN HOW THEY AND WE SEE
GLOBALIZATION AND VIETNAM'S ENGAGEMENT WITH THE REST OF THE
WORLD. OUR HOPE IS THAT, IN TIME, VIETNAM'S LEADERSHIP WILL
BE ABLE TO SHED SOME OF ITS IDEOLOGICAL DEAD SKIN. UNTIL
THAT HAPPENS, HOWEVER, THIS COUNTRY OF DYNAMIC, HARD-WORKING
PEOPLE WITH A STRONG COMMITMENT TO EDUCATION WILL CONTINUE
TO BE HELD BACK BY ITS LEADERS, MANY OF WHOM SUBSCRIBE TO
STERILE IDEOLOGICAL MANTRAS FROM ANOTHER ERA. END COMMENT.
PETERSON

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2000HANOI00686 - CONFIDENTIAL